Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Off travelling today so no video. Apologies. I hope to arrive at my Heathrow Hotel in time for Ze Germans at 14:30. If so, then expect a Telegram or two.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Sheffield Utd v Man City - 1.30 Man City

  • 5 losses and a 1-1 draw for Sheffield United. 0-0-1 goals scored at home in 2 defeats and a draw.
  • Consecutive away losses v Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • Man City's only loss came v Leicester. Both teams have scored in City's 3 away matches, with a 1-3 win and 2 1-1 draws.
  • Draw worst case for City today?
  • City have yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.

15:00 - Burnley v Chelsea - 1.53 Chelsea

  • 4 losses and a 0-0 for Burnley. They have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches. I think the Tottenham 0-1 win latest is the template for this match. 0-0 halftime, Chelsea edge it late on?
  • Chelsea's only loss came v Liverpool. 3-3-0 goals scored away in a win and 2 draws.
  • Chelsea may have too much in attack for a likely plucky Burnley.

17:30 - Liverpool v West Ham - 1.35 Liverpool

  • 4-2-3-2-2-2 goals scored by Liverpool, both teams have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches too so those 2+ goals are a necessity unless Klopp can tune that defence (minus Virgil Van Dijk).
  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 draws for West Ham in what has been a very tough opening set of fixtures. Arsenal, Wolves, Leiecster, Tottenham, Man City - only losing to Arsenal amongst these strong sides. Draws v Tottenham and Man City.
  • We cannot discount this West Ham side, particularly given they have done very well with this tough set of matches and also have scored plenty of goals.
  • Both teams to score has a chance here. We enter the unknown really with Van Dijk's absence for Liverpool.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Dundee Utd v Ross County - 2.05 Dundee United

Dundee United - 6th

  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Only 3 clean sheets, but of course, 2 consecutive clean sheets in those 0-0's.
  • 1-2 win v Ross County earlier this season.
  • Scored 2 goals only once.

Ross County - 7th

  • Only 3 wins were all 1-0 wins.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are poor. If Ross win, it tends to be 1-0 only.
  • I would look for this Dundee United 0-0 sequence to end today so lay any very late 0-0.

15:00 - Livingston v Motherwell - 2.4 Livingston

  • I will leave this 2.4 the favourite to the in-play stats.

SPANISH PRIMEIRA LIGA

13:00 - Real Madrid v Huesca - 1.35 Real Madrid

  • Only 1 defeat for Real Madrid came last match, 1-0 v Cadiz. 1-0 and 0-1 at home. Stumbling again mid week in the Champions League, Real Madrid came back with a 2-2 draw.
  • Huesca are unbeaten. 5 draws, and 2 losses. I really would not expect Real Madrid to lose a 2nd consecutive home match v a newly promoted side.

15:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla - 2.62 Sevilla

  • I won't research this 2.62 the favourite match.

17:30 - Osasuna v Atletico Madrid - 1.75 Atl Madrid

  • Atl Madrid are unbeaten this season.4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Osasuna have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets and 2 consecutive home wins.
  • I would consider backing 0-0 pre match here just incase defences are on top in this match, given the prevalence of clean sheets so recently.

20:00 - Alaves v Barcelona - 1.50 Barcelona

  • There is still that 'new manager syndrome' element to Barcelona.
  • 2 wins in 3 for Alaves were the only wins this season.0-0-1-0 goals scored at home will not, of course, be enough.
  • 2 consecutive defeats for Barcelona must be a pattern they will look to end today. Very rare in Barca's historical results have they seen 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Barcelona failed to score last match.
  • A match of context therefore I think. I cannot see, and Barca will not tolerate, 3 consecutive defeats.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Arminia Bielefeld v Dortmund - 1.44 Dortmund

  • Draw win, and 3 losses for Bielefeld.
  • 4 wins and a loss for Dortmund saw clean sheets in those wins. Dortmund must eye the win here against a newly promoted side.

14:30 - Augsburg v Mainz - 1.95 Augsburg

  • 2 wins, a draw and 2 losses for Augsburg. 2-0 win v Dortmund and 0-2 loss v Leipzig at home for Augsburg.
  • Mainz have lost all matches this season. No 0-0 at halftime for Mainz.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Werder Bremen - 1.75 Frankfurt

  • Only 1 loss for Frankfurt came v Bayern last match. Prior to that match, both teams scored and Frank went unbeaten.
  • Werder are much improved based on last year's form. Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Draw. 2 consecutive 1-1's Werder are back and scoring again too, scoring in all matches. A huge improvement upon last season. So...Werder may be competitive here. Notably, though, they hold that unreadability.

14:30 - Koln v Bayern Munich - 1.18 Bayern Munich

  • 3 losses and 2 draws for Koln scored them score and concede in 4 matches. 4 wins and a loss v the Hoff for Bayern. 4+ goals scored in the wins.
  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - M'gladbach v Leipzig - 2.25 Leipzig

  • 4 wins and a draw for Leipzig. 2+ goals scored in the wins.
  • Mgladbach lost their opener. Draw, Win, Draw, Win for Mgladbach in the next matches, scoring and conceding. 2 1-1 draws at home.
  • 2 teams in reasonable form, hence the luke warm odds for Leipzig.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Crotone v Atalanta - 1.40 Atalanta

  • No win yet for Crotone, all defeats and a draw. Atalanta have lost their last 2 matches v Napoli and Sampdoria but I do not think Crotone are to that level and expect the free-scoring Atalanta to return. 4-4-5 goals before the 2 defeats.
  • Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market? I am firmly in Atalanta's favour here but am flexible enough to react if the in-play stats don't agree with me.

17:00 - Inter Milan v Parma - 1.28 Inter Milan

  • Inter only lost in the Milan derby. Both teams scored in 4/5 matches. 4-3and 1-2 at home.
  • Inter have scored in all matches, 4-5-1-1-2 goals.
  • Parma have only 1 win, at home v Hellas Verona. 4-1 and 3-2 losses away.
  • Another possible for a goal before halftime. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market? I must be with Inter even if Parma could score. Parma have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches without winning. Remember that possible angle too.

19:45 - Bologna v Cagliari - 1.91 Bologna

  • Only 1 win for Bologna came at home, amongst 4 other defeats. 4-1 and 3-4 at home, losing the latter match despite 3 goals. 7 goals scored in 2 home matches. Do they have a specific tactic at home - as it is obviously generating a healthy goal tally.
  • 2-3-4 goals scored by Cagliari latest which may suggest that Bologna quote is a tad short. Loss and 2 wins in that scoring run. What worries Cagliari is that they have conceded 1-2-2-2-2 goals so any win necessitates the scoring of 3 or more goals at the moment.
  • 0-0 this should not be! 2-0 and 2-1 at halftime in Bologna home matches. 0-0, 4-1, 1-2 in Cagliari away matches.
  • An interesting match where both teams could score today. Will we see both teams score 2 goals at least?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:45 - Twente v Zwolle - 1.95 Twente

  • Only 1 loss for Twente came in a tough encounter v Utrecht latest.
  • They scored and conceded in 4/6 matches this season.
  • Twente have scored in every match. 2-0, 3-1, 1-1 at home.
  • Only 1 win for Zwolle came at home v Sparta.
  • 2 1-1 draws away, and a run of 2 consecutive draws with a 0-0 latest.
  • I would slightly favour Twente in their current mood. No disgrace in going down to Utrecht latest. Twente do score!

19:00 - Ajax v Fortuna Sittard - 1.08 Ajax

  • After scraping through 0-13 v VVV Venlo recently, I won't research, suffice to saw that Ajax's forward line is in decent nick, and in keeping with 1.08, we expect them to score before halftime and score 3/4 goals at least today.

19:00 - Groningen v Venlo - 1.53 Groningen

  • Any team like Venlo who gets tonked 0-13 in their last match tends to over-react defensively in their next match (this one!).
  • 1-1-0 scored by Groningen at home in a loss, win, draw so not knocking it out of the park.
  • In fact, Groningen have scored more than 1 goal only once and that was a 1-3 win v Sittard last match.
  • 3 losses and a 2-2 for Venlo.
  • You might want to be a contrarian here and back 0-0 pre match and hope that Venlo over-defend in reaction to a recent mauling.

20:00 - Willem-II v Vitesse - 2.10 Vitesse

  • Solid season for Vitesse with 5 wins and a loss v Ajax. I would have expected shorter odds.
  • Only 1 win for Willem came at home amongst 2 consecutive home losses. They have failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • There must be a reason behind Vitesse's lukewarm reception via the market, but the seasonal form is solid.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

15:00 - Nordsjaelland v Midtjylland - 2.00 Midtjylland

  • Midtjylland tend to offer us a tradable game or two. 2-0 down to Brondby latest, they won 2-3. 0-1 down to ODense, they won 3-1.
  • Nordsjaelland have won their 2 home matches. Midtjylland are coming off the back of Champions League action. Will that dent their performance? Just be aware of that.
  • Recent matches suggests that fight-back-ability which is a trader's dream.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

11:00 - Rubin Kazan v Arsenal Tula - 1.61 Rubin Kazan

Rubin Kazan

  • Both teams have scored last 4 matches with 2 wins, most impressively recently away at Rubin Kazan.
  • Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league, with 3 score draws and a win.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home  came 2nd half.

Tula

  • All wins came at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away matches without winning.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came 1st match of the season.

Angles?

  • Tula's away form is poor. Based on that, and a solid away win v Zenit, I would hope Rubin could build on that. Do note their goals tend to come 2nd half at home. They have kept only 2 clean sheets so Tula, if scoring, may not win.

13:30 - Akhmat Grozny v Krasnodar - 2.5 Akhmat

  • Not researching 2.5 the favourite.

13:30 - Spartak Moscow v Rostov - 1.70 Spartak

  • Only 1 loss for Spartak came v fellow Moscovites. Unbeaten at home as well.
  • Spartak have scored in all matches.
  • Rostov are 6th, Spartak have scored and conceded v the top 7 at home without losing, so therein may lay an angle?
  • Rostov are yet to beat a top 8 side home or away, with Spartak 1st.
  • On the seasonal form, top of the table Spartak are tough to oppose and are scoring 2+ goals without home advantage so.....

16:00 - Sochi v Lokomotiv Moscow - 2.62 Sochi

  • Leave 2.62 the favourite to the in-play stats.