A busy Saturday and great to see a return to league football. I suspect the lure of a 4 day holiday has a lot of you making other plans. So no official live chat. Please note that if I have no plans from 14:00 onwards (note the Italians play today) then I will tweet @drtclub. Not set in stone I'm afraid.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - C Palace v Liverpool - 1.47 Liverpool
- Liverpool have won the last 2 head to heads.
- First win in 7 came away v Huddersfield.That takes Palace outside the bottom 3.
- A draw and 2 losses last 3 at home.
- 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Not beaten top 4 home or away.
- Failed to score in 6 of 7 of those matches.
- A chance to go 2nd.
- Only 2 losses since 28th October 2017.
- Scored 2+ goals in 11 of their last 13 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 14 matches.
- All losses bar one came away v top 4.
- 12 goals scored 18-30th min away.
- Palace 2 goals a game at home under Woy is a distant memory. Struggles ended with a win v Huddersfield.
- But Palace tend not to score v top 4 (albeit scoring 2 v Man Utd recently at home in defeat).
- Liverpool play Man City on 4th April in the Champions League. They have not really been affected by the curse.
- On all known form, expect 2+ goals from Liverpool. Check team news though. With such an important match upcoming against a Palace needing points, we may be surprised. Remember Palace have been conceding late in defeat v the big guns.
15:00 - Brighton v Leicester - 2.74 Leicester
- 4 matches in the Premier League where the favourite's odds exceed 2.4 suggests these matches are tough to call. I will do basic research on them.
- 2-0 Leicester the last time these 2 met.
- 3 consecutive home wins Brighton sees them 6 points clear of the relegation zone. They did score and concede in 5 of their last 6.
- Home form for Brighton is superb.They have only lost to top 5 at home.
- 67% of Brighton's goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Leicester scored and conceded last 6 matches. 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
- Leicester have not beaten a top 11 side away and they meet.....12th.
- I think the reason for the odds today is because of that last point. Leicester are unbeaten away v 13th and lower but are yet to beat 11th and higher. They meet 12th today.
- Brighton have excellent home form so cannot be discounted. I do think both teams can score but which way will Leicester lean ? To the 11th and higher losses or 13th and lower wins?
15:00 - Man Utd v Swansea - 1.23 Man Utd
Man Utd (2nd) out of the Champions League now
- Only losses this year have came away from home.
- Scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 at home.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
- Only 1 loss at home v 1st.
- Conceded only 1 goal v 8th and lower at home.
- 10 matches under new manager.
- Only 2 losses in those 10 v Tottenham and Brighton.
- Beat Liverpool and Arsenal at home.
- Only 1 away win under new manager sees 3 draws and a loss.
- Strong impact for new manager of Swansea must be acknowledged. Note they score and concede away so if scoring first, lay them. Man Utd though v 8th and lower at home are very tough to score against so a possible win to nil? If you like win to nil, select 3 scorelines between 2-0 and 6-0 and hope one of them comes in.
- I would give the Swans a chance at home but away they are struggling to win.
15:00 - Newcastle v Huddersfield - 1.82 Newcastle
- Only 4 points from relegation zone so this match is a relegation six pointer.
- 3 draws and 2 wins last 5 at home.
- 1-0-0-1-3 (Man City) - 1-1-0-2-2-0 conceded recently.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower.
- Only 2 wins in 13 v Bournemouth and West Brom.
- Failed to score in 8 of their last 11 matches.
- Conceded in their last 12 away.
- 8 0-0's at halftime away.
- 24 of 30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- This Huddersfield have found goals difficult recently and that is no form with which to meet a tight Newcastle side which tend to keep clean sheets v teams 14th and lower.
- The market suggests Newcastle will continue to eye positive results v lower half sides at home as they have done this season. That's what I'll expect and I'll oppose any Huddersfield lead.
15:00 - Watford v Bournemouth - 2.52 Watford
- Another prospective tough match to call with a 2.52 odds favourite.
- 2-2, 2-2, 0-2 Watford last 3 head to heads.
- Just basic research here given the odds.
- Watford find themselves 11th and pretty much assured another year of Premier League football - not mathematically so though.
- 3 consecutive home wins v Chelsea, Everton and West Brom, the latter 1-0 wins.
- Watford have scored in their last 10 home matches
- Watford are unbeaten at home v 3rd-12th inclusive.
- 15 of 22 goals scored by Watford at home came 2nd half.
- Bournemouth have been solid of late, losing only to Huddersfield and Tottenham since 26th December 2017. They are on the same points as Watford.
- Bournemouth have scored and conceded in 11 of their last 12 matches.
- Bournemouth have only 3 away wins v 5th, 13th and 19th.
- Both sides have reasonable recent form with Watford slightly trumping Bournemouth.
- With Bournemouth scoring and conceding, is there an angle here for laying Bournemouth if Bournemouth score first, given that Watford have scored in their last 10 matches at home?
15:00 - West Brom v Burnley - 2.74 West Brom
- This is another apparent imponderable given the 2.74 odds for the favourite. I do feel obliged to do some basic research at least given this is the English premier league.
- 7 matches left for West Brom, 4 are at home and they simply must win them all. They are 7 points from 2nd bottom and many more points from relegation safety.
- 7 consecutive defeats now for West Brom. They did lead v Bournemouth last match before losing.
- They led at home v Leicester last match before losing.
- West Brom have scored in their last 5 at home so may chip in with a goal.
- They are yet to beat a top 8 side at home.
- Burnley are 7th and safe for another year. There is an outside chance of 6th place.
- 2 consecutive wins now for Burnley against Everton and West Ham really is good enough to see them beat West Brom today.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away for Burnley sees nearly 50% 0-0's at halftime.
- 3 Burnley defeats v teams below them in the league were 1-0. They have beaten 2 of the bottom 4 away.
- On form it does look as if Burnley can only lose 1-0. But with West Brom side have led in their last 2 matches and lost. I fear for West Brom today and suspect that pattern may repeat so look out for it. We may see a 0-0 at halftime. Do remember in relegation six pointers, we could see a sudden improvement. West Brom, though, look doomed.
17:30 - Everton v Man City - 1.38 Man City
- 4-0 Everton and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
- 2 consecutive wins.
- Excellent form at home under Allardyce. WWDLDWWW (W-Win, D-Draw, L-Loss).
- Noticeably the sole loss was v Manchester City.
Man City (1st)
- Play Liverpool in the Champions League next week. Will they field a weaker side today?
- Draw, Loss, Draw, Win, Win away recently. There is some vulnerability away.
- The key piece of form for Everton was a solitary loss v Man Utd at home under Allardyce. It is likely to occur again today.
- That is, if City are not distracted by the Champions League. They could field a 2nd string, strongish, side today, having a 16 point cushion at the top.
- Value is in laying a City lead. It may come to little based on form, but if they play a weakened side, we may see vulnerability.
SPANISH LA LIGA
12:00 - Girona v Levante - 1.63 Girona
- 1-2 Girona and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
- 4 wins in 6 matches. Only Real Madrid and Barca have beaten them recently.
- 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Scored in their last 10 at home.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 7 wins, a draw and a loss at home v 9th and lower.
- 2 consecutive wins.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away (50% of matches).
- Not beaten top 8 away.
- Girona should return to winning ways v bottom 4 (3 out of 3 wins so far).
- Levante may get a 0-0 at halftime but Girona have 7 wins, a draw and a loss at home v 9th and lower.
17:30 - Las Palmas v Real Madrid - 1.3 Real Madrid
- 2-2, 3-3, 3-0 Real Madrid in the last 3 head to heads.
Las Palmas (18th)
- Only 5 wins.
- No win in 7.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Scored against the top 4 at home. 1-1 v Barcelona and 1-5 v Atl Madrid.
- 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Real Madrid (3rd)
- Champions League on 3rd April 2018 may distract.
- Tend to remain unaffected pre Champions league.
- 9 wins, a draw and a loss last 11 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
- 2/3 goals scored away v 15th and lower.
- Points required for a Las Palmas losing touch with 4th bottom. Real Madrid may be distracted today - look for team changes which may make Real vulnerable.
- Las Palmas have a habit of scoring v top 4. If they score first today they are layable. Real remember score and concede regularly of late.
- Strictly on form, Champions League notwithstanding, Real should eye 2/3 goals today.
19:45 - Sevilla v Barcelona - 1.73 Barcelona
- 3-0 and 2-1 Barcelona last 2 head to heads at Barcelona though.
- Barcelona meet Roma in the Champions League on the 4th April 2018.
- Lost to all top 4 home and away.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (43%).
- Unbeaten and therefore do not get affected by the pre Champions League nerves.
- Do watch out for possible team changes.
- Scored in their last 15 away.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away is 40%.
- Not conceded a 2nd goal away v 14th and higher.
- 26 of 34 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Will Barcelona rest players? Check team news. Sevilla tend to lose this season to top 4. Barcelona do not tend to concede 2 goals v top 14 away so lay Sevilla if Sevilla score first.
- Note any 0-0 at halftime. Barcelona score shed loads 2nd half away from home.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
16:00 - Dijon v Marseille - 1.83 Marseille
- 1-1 and 3-0 Marseille last 2 head to heads.
- 4 draws in their last 5 matches.
- Only 1 loss in 8 came v Monaco.
- 3 consecutive score draws.
- Scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- No defeat in 10 at home.
- Scored in their last 12 at home.
- Lost to top 3 this season but at home, beat 5th-8th.
- Only 3 defeats since 17th September 2017.
- Recently lost to PSG and Lyon.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Only away defeats v top 4.
- Dijon have a recent habit for scoring 2 goals and play a Marseille conceding 2 goals v teams around Dijon's position in the league.
- If Dijon score 2 goals today, I feel this still may not be enough to get the win and that is my angle into this match.
- Marseille remember only tend to lose to top 4 away from home.
14:30 - Hoffenheim v Koln - 1.58 Hoffenheim
- 1-1 and 0-3 Hoffenheim in the last 2 head to heads.
- 2-1-4-1-1-2-3-3 goals scored in recent matches.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Scored in their last 12 and last 13 at home.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home, 6 1-0's.
- Only 1 home loss v 6th and lower.
- 17 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
FC Koln (17th)
- Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
- Scored in their last 11 matches.
- Only 2 away wins.
- 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Hoff are back and scoring and should simply outscore a Koln side today who themselves tend to battle when in defeat.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Koln have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches. I would lay Koln if Koln scored first.
14:30 - Stuttgart v Hamburg - 1.79 Stuttgart
- Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads with the home team winning.
14:30 - Schalke v Freiburg - 1.59 Schalke
- 2-0 Freiburg and 0-1 Schalke last 2 head to heads.
- 5 consecutive wins, the last 3 were 1-0.
- Only 1 loss last 10 at home.
- 4 consecutive clean sheets.
- Scored in their last 21 matches.
- 10 1-0's at halftime at home.
- Have had 1-1 draws v teams either side of Freiburg in the league.
- 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half. 8 came last 15 mins.
- Only 1 win in 8 matches.
- 4 draws in their last 5 away.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- 5-2-1-4-4-1-3-3- conceded away v top 10.
- Only away win v 2nd bottom.
- 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- This despite Schalke having 2 consecutive 0-0's at halfitme albeit away.
- Schalke should not lose today. I would not discount a score draw and would certainly lay any Freiburg lead.
14:30 - Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg - 1.51 Bayer
- 1-3 Bayer and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
Bayer Leverkusen (5th)
- Have been inconsistent as regard scoring but do have 3 wins in 5 matches.
- After 2 consecutive losses at home without scoring, they beat Mgladbach last home match.
- 6 consecutive 1-0 scorelines at halftime.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only 1 loss at home outside of the top 2. Scored 2 goals v 6th, 7th and 9th at home.
- 4 defeats in their last 6 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets since 4th November 2017.
- Conceded in their last 8 away.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
- Only 1 win v top 9 away.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, so says the stats, and that is despite Leverkusen pitching in with 3 recent matches where they failed to score.
- With only 2 clean sheets since 4th November 2017, expect Augsburg to concede at some point.
- Leverkusen could score 2 goals today as they did recently v 9th at home. Lay Augsburg if Augsburg score first.
17:30 - Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund - 1.41 Bayern
- 1-3 and 2-1 Bayern in the last 2 head to heads.
- The market is emphatic in its assessment.
Bayern Munich (1st)
- 17 points ahead with a possible 21 still to play for. Bayern are not mathematically there yet but a win today will all but seal it.
- Only 3 defeats. Lost last match.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- 9 wins and a draw last 10 at home.
- No defeat 13 at home.
- 6 2-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
- 2-3-3-1-3-3 scored home and away v top 5 sides.
- Unbeaten in 12. New manager has tweaked a few things to end a poor run 14th October to 9th December 2017.
- Scored and conceded last 6 away. Scored in their last 11 away.
- Not played top 2 away but score draws v 4th, 5th and 6th.
- Strictly based on the stats we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but this is a top 3 clash.
- Dortmund are in excellent recent form but a score draw seems best case scenario. So do note that if Dortmund score first.
- Bayern have been emphatic scorers v the top 5 this season, scoring as many as 3 goals so the market could be right today.
ITALIAN SERIA A
11:30 - Bologna v Roma - 1.72 Roma
- 0-3 and 1-0 Roma last 2 head to heads.
- Only 4 wins in 15 matches. 3 wins came at home within the last 5 home matches.
- No draw in 7 at home.
- No 0-0.
- Not beaten the top 7 home or away.
- 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
- 4 consecutive away wins.
- Only 1 away loss v 1st.
- Conceded 2 goals only twice away and still won.
- On recent form, and season long form, Bologna should not be winning today.
- Bologna are yet to have a 0-0 which is a good stats to go to war with.
- Remember Roma have conceded 2 goals twice away from home without losing so if Bologna somehow take a 2-0 lead, they are layable. They are layable at 2-1 as well.
14:00 - Lazio v Benevento - 1.23 Lazio
- Benevento are relegated and have given their home supporters some great moments.
- Lazio are 5th and with a loss and 2 score draws in their last 3 matches, expect them to push for an important 3 points today.
- Lazio are unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower with 10 wins and 2 draws. They scored 2+ goals on 11 occasions in those matches.
- Benevento have lost every away match, failing to score 10 times.
- We should expect Lazio to purge themselves of a 2 match losing streak at home and a 3 match winless streak. A possible win to nil and I always tend to choose 3 correct scores. 2-0 would be my opening gambit. 3-0 and 5-0 in case they click.
14:00 - Fiorentina v Crotone - 1.53 Fiorentina
- 0-1 Fiorentina and 2-1 Crotone last 2 head to heads.
- A draw and 3 consecutive wins.
- Recent poor goalscorers at home - 0-1-1-1-0-1-1 albeit 2 consecutive home wins.
- Solid v teams below them in the league at home bar that huge shock 1-4 spanking v Hellas Verona.
- Relegation places but 3 points changes all of that. 3-3-1-2 conceded recently though.
- Only 3 wins in 16 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Not beaten top 8 away. Did beat 11th 2-3.
- 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- A win could change Crotone's future. The problem is that they have only 3 wins in 16 matches, and have conceded 9 goals in their last 4 matches.
- Fiorentina have been poor goalscorers at home recently, albeit winning their last 2 at home 1-0. If 1-0 late on for Fiorentina I would lay that scoreline given Crotone's need (but admittedly they are in poor form).
14:00 - Inter v Verona - 1.17 Inter
- 3-3 and 1-2 Inter in the last 2 head to heads.
- Inter Milan remain 4th and were title contenders but for a recent hiccup. They are back up and winning with 2 consecutive home wins.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets includes a 0-0 v Napoli and this augurs well for today.
- 6 without defeat at home now for Inter. They have only 1 home loss and 3 wins in 4 at home v 16th and lower.
- Verona have had only 4 draws all season. Can we discount a draw today?
- 2 wins in 4 came at home. 4 defeats in 5 away for Verona but in the midst of that they pulled off a massive shock 1-4 away win v Fiorentina. Anomoly?
- With only 4 clean sheets, Verona are highly likely to score at some stage so note that if 0-1 or 0-0 for a while.
- 100% verona defeats v top 5 saw them concede either 2/3 goals on 7 occasions.
- If Inter are back up and running (and 2 wins at home suggests so), they should be eyeing 2/3 goals bare minimum in a home win.
14:00 - Atalanta v Udinese - 1.44 Atalanta
- 1-1 and 2-1 Udinese last 2 head to heads.
- Only 1 loss in 7 v Juventus.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home (39%).
- Only 1 loss outside top 5 at home.
- 5 consecutive losses after it was looking good under new manager.
- Conceded 2 goals in each of those defeats.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- 7 defeats and a win away v top 10.
- On form it seems Udinese's woes will continue. They are dire away v top 10 so if scoring first, are layable.
- Udinese have only 1 0-0 at halftime away but Atalanta's % is a little high as 39%.
- Atalanta have failed to score only 3 times so do not expect a 0-0 today and take on any late 0-0.
14:00 - Cagliari v Torino - 2.46 Torino
- 2-3 Torino and 2-1 Torino last 2 head to heads.
- Note the market cannot split the teams.
- Only 3 wins since 25th November 2017.
- Only 1 win in 8 at home.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Not beaten a top 15 side at home.
- Scored 2 goals on 3 occasions at home v top 15 and did not win.
- 4 consecutive defeats.
- Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
- No win in 5 away.
- Only 1 loss v teams below them in the league so that recent poor run needs a context.
- Conceded 2 goals 4 times v teams below them in the league, losing only 1 match.
- For me, it seems that the number 2 prevails with both sides. Cagliari may not win even if scoring 2 goals and Torino tend to concede 2 goals v teams below them without actually losing. I would go with a 3-2 / 2-3 correct score here and hope for a trading angle if this 2 goal scoring and conceding pattern can continue.
14:00 - Genoa v Spal - 2.02 Genoa
- 1-0 SPAL last head to head.
- 3 consecutive defeats followed on from 3 consecutive wins.
- Last 2 losses at home were 0-1.
- No 0-0 at home.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 at home v teams below them in the league.
- 2 wins and 2 draws sees SPAL with only a 1 point cushion above the relegation zone.
- Conceded in their last 14 away matches.
- Only beaten the bottom 3 away.
- A relegation six pointer feel about SPAL. Genoa are a little safer. It would not surprise me to see 0-0 at halftime. Maybe back 0-0 pre match and hope it remains 0-0 at halftime to cash out?
- A 1-0/0-1/ 1-1 looks more likely today. Strictly on form, SPAL should concede away and not win. Genoa are tough to score against, particularly when playing the bottom 4 so slight preference for them today.
19:45 - Juventus v AC Milan - 1.66 Juventus
- New manager Milan so head to heads irrelevant.
- Juventus meet Real Madrid on the 5th April.
- Unbeaten in 16 and 9 at home.
- 10 consecutive clean sheets and 7 at home.
- Scored 2+ in each of their last 3 at home.
- 100% wins v 7th and lower. Draw v 4th, loss v 5th at home.
- Scored first in 12/14 at home.
- 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 matches.
- 4 wins in 5 away.
- 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
- Only 1 win v top 12 away. Did come recently v Roma in 3rd 0-2.
- 14 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- A fascinating match. Pre-Champtions League for Juventus.
- I would not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime as Milan tend to concede 2nd half away and both sides are in a clean sheet kind of a mood of late.
- What may swing things to Juve's favour is Milan have only 1 win away v top 12, albeit that came recently.
- The last time Juve had a pre Champions League match, they won 1-0. I would not be surprised with that scoreline today.
- An inform Milan will be a tough proposition.
17:30 - PEC Zwolle v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.85 Zwolle
- 2-3 Zwolle and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
PEC Zwolle (7th)
- 7 defeats in the last 9 matches.
- Conceded in their last 9 and last 5 at home.
- No 0-0 at home.
- Only 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 7 wins and a draw at home v 8th and lower.
- 2 wins in 3.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- Not beaten top 7.
- All defeats home and away v top 6.
- 9 losses and a draw away v top 13 sides.
- 21 of 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- PEC are in poor recent form. But they have 7 wins and a draw at home v teams 8th and lower.
- Sparta should lose on form but we do acknowledge 7 defeats in 9 for PEC.
- Strong concession rate 2nd half Sparta so note that if they have not conceded by first.
- Lay any late 0-0.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Motherwell v Rangers - 1.69 Rangers
- 0-2 Motherwell and 2-0 Rangers in the last 2 head to heads.
- I am going to wind down the SPL as Celtic have won the title and cannot be caught.
- Motherwell cannot be relegated.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 for Motherwell includes a recent 0-0 v an unmotivated Celtic.
- No win for Motherwell v the top 2 this season.
- 2 consecutive defeats for Rangers v Celtic and Kilmarnock. Foot off the gas time?
- They have not wrapped up 2nd place yet though.
- Rangers have scored and conceded in all bar 3 matches away and only lost 2 matches.
- A lack of motivation may scupper this match. Rangers do have 2nd place to play for and having beaten Motherwell twice this season, should not lose.