Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

PSG continue to fail to impress - 2nd goal a penalty v newly promoted Metz but they'll take the win without Mbappe, Cavani, and Neymar leading the line. In-play stats were strong indicators yesterday (and you should use them early season in lieu of any form). I only wished I could have done a live chat webinar yesterday but the time difference would not allow. Fear not. Live chat webinar today and it will be the first for a short while as it is the turn of International Football next week. So please attend if you can.

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2903938153514095629 is the link for today's live chat webinar. Please register to attend. 14:30 kick-off.


ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Southampton v Man Utd - 2.14 Man Utd

  • New stats source - +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Southampton home matches and in 12/18 Man Utd away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/10 Man Utd away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Match indicators:
  • 1 - Both teams score v Top Half (3.14); 2 - Both teams score v Top 6 (2.16); 3 - Over 3.5 match goals v Top 6 (1.98).
  • 1 - Both teams score v All (3.77); 2 - Both teams score v Top Half (2.97); 3 - Home concede last v Top 6 (2.33).
  • My research - 2-2 and 3-2 Man utd last season. Saints led in both matches.
  • Saints lost v Burnley and Liverpool and beat Brighton away 0-2.
  • Man Utd 4-0 win v Chelsea, 1-1 away v Wolves (missed penalty for the win) and 1-2 loss v Palace (missed penalty for an early equalizer).
  • An element of bad luck for Man Utd (or lack of training in finishing penalties?) could see them unbeaten this season.
  • United matches not seen a 0-0 at halftime yet (albeit only 3 matches).
  • Saints look vulnerable if leading IF we rely on head to heads.

Newcastle v Watford - 2.64 Newcastle

  • Saint Steve of Bruce now after that win v Tottenham?
  • New manager for Newcastle so we cannot rely on looking at last season under the Fat Spanish Waiter.
  • Something is awry with Watford.2 home losses conceding 3 goals in each and a 1-0 loss away at Everton. 0-0-1 goals scored by Watford. Bring back Richarlison (and resurrect Luther Blissett?).
  • 2.64 - the market hasn't a clue. Are Newcastle renewed now? They have only scored 0-1-1 v Steve Bruce. If these 2 consistently fail to score a 2nd goal then laying the first team to score (with insurance on the 0-1/1-0 whoever scores first).

Man City v Brighton - 1.1 Man City

  • Match outcome: Man City have won 10/11 home matches against top-half teams while Brighton have lost 9/10 away matches against top-six teams. Brighton have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Match indicators:
  • 1 - Home clean sheet v All (4.49); 2 - Home Win to nil v All (4.46); 3 - Home score first v Top Half (4.14).
  • 1 - Home score first v Top Half (3.78); 2 - HT home score 1-0 v All (3.77); 3 - Home score first v All (3.74).
  • City unbeaten and unlucky not to have 3/3 wins bar for a VAR late winner v Spurs. 2+ goals scored.
  • No 0-0 at halftime yet for City.
  • 0-3 win v Watford, 1-1 v West Ham and 0-2 loss v Saints for Brighton.
  • 1.1 odds suggests 3/4 goals for City (they are scoring 2+ this season) and remember the potential for the 20 minute strategy. If 0-0 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market.

West Ham v Norwich - 1.94 West Ham

  • Newly promoted Norwich so no head to heads.
  • 2 consecutive 3-1 home wins for West Ham v newly promoted but they did lose 3 on the trot prior to that v Brighton, Newcastle and Wolves.
  • Only loss for West Ham v Man City. 1-1 and 1-3 win, both away.
  • Norwich have played 2 of the established top 6, and lost...to Liverpool and Chelsea.3-1 home win v Newcastle.
  • Will West Ham perform as emphatically as they have done v their last 2 newly promoted opponents at home?

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa - 2.32 Crystal Palace

  • Match outcome: C Palace have won 5/10 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 66% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 66% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
  • Woy is weleased fwom the League Cup and coming off the back of a great away win v Man Utd where he strangled the life out of their shots on target.
  • Palace yet to concede that 2nd goal this season although they were helped by a Man Utd missed penalty.
  • 3-1 loss v Tottenham, 1-2 loss v Bournemouth and then a shock (for me) 2-0 home win v Everton sees Aston Villa's first win of the season.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 for Palace v newly promoted came v Wolves and Huddersfield.
  • The market gives Villa a chance here. Watching brief really for newly promoted.

Leicester v Bournemouth - 1.76 Leicester

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Bournemouth away matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Bournemouth such matches. Leicester have conceded first in 11/19 home matches.
  • New Leicester manager may suggest the above might be erroneous.
  • A limited number of matches for Ted Rodgers v bottom half sides but 2 wins 2-0 and 3-1 and a 0-1 loss to Newcastle last season.
  • Bournemouth away v top half teams suffered 6 consecutive defeats and failed to score in 4 of those.
  • I personally favour Leicester today.
  • Yet to score at home, that should end today. A 1-1 and 1-2 win away. Vardy scored first goal of the season and I say it whenever I research Leicester. Under Rodgers, Vardy was devastating last season.
  • Both teams have scored in Bournemouth's 3 matches this season and only 1 win v Villa.

Chelsea v Sheff Utd - 1.38 Chelsea

  • Newly promoted Blades.
  • New manager Chelsea so last year's form is irrelevant for Chelsea.
  • It was a tough start for Chelsea with a 4-0 loss v Man Utd, 1-1 draw v Leicester and a 2-3 win v Norwich which was expected and was 2-2 at halftime.
  • The Blades drew 1-1 with Bournemouth, 1-0 win v Palace and 1-2 loss v Leicester.
  • Rather like Chelsea and Norwich, I would expect a potential top 6 Chelsea to be beating newly promoted. The Sheffield United result v Leicester is a suggestion as to what to expect. Blades keep it tight but may succumb to the gulf in class, particularly in finishing up front?
  • Asian handicap: Chelsea have won by two or more goals in 7/9 home matches against promoted teams and they have had W/W double results in 6/9 such matches. Middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.

Burnley v Liverpool - 1.35 Liverpool

  • 1st goal: Burnley have conceded first in 8/11 home matches against top-six teams while Liverpool have scored first in 14/20 away matches. Liverpool have won 10/14 away matches.
  • False 15th last year for Burnley given they were 7th the year before. No Europa League distractions this season.
  • Only 1 away loss for Liverpool last season was v Man City. That was the only loss....period.
  • 4-2 and 1-3 wins v Burnley last season.
  • Liverpool are conceding but in victory and they must press their early advantage over Man City.
  • 3-0 win v Saints, 2-1 loss v Arsenal and 1-1 v Wolves (unlucky not to get the 0-1 win) sees Burnley return to their old tough to score against selves. Patience may be required of Liverpool as Burnley are expected to put up a stronger performance than their distracted selves of last season.

SPANISH LA LIGA

16:00 - Osasuna v Barcelona - 1.39 Barcelona

  • 1st goal: Top half non-Big Two promoted teams have conceded first in 51% of home matches against Big Two teams since 2014-15 while Barcelona have won 13/15 away matches against promoted teams. Barcelona have won by two or more goals in 9/15 away matches against promoted teams.
  • 0-1 win and 0-0 for Osasuna this season so keeping it tight. 1-0 loss v Ath Bilbao in their opener for Barcelona so could be vulnerable v an ultra defensive unit.
  • 5-2 win v Betis though was normal-service resumed. 2 goals from Griezemann is a good sign for Barcelona. Check on team news regarding the Messi-ah.

18:00 - Levante v Valladolid - 2.06 Levante

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Levante home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 8/13 Levante home matches. Valladolid have conceded first in 11/13 away matches.
  • 2-1 Valladolid and 2-0 levante in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 1-0 loss and 2-1 win v Villareal for Levante.1-2 win v Betis and 1-1 v Real Madrid away for Valladolid this season.
  • Solid enough away form. Valladolid look defensive and kept Real Madrid very quiet. They have only conceded 2nd half. So watch out for that defensive bent from them today and maybe Levante may find themselves layable if scoring first?

18:00 - Getafe v Alaves - 1.82 Getafe

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Getafe home matches and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches. Alaves have scored first in 10/12 away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • 1-1 and 4-0 Getafe in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 1-0 loss v Atl Madrid and 1-1 draw v Bilbao for Getafe this season.
  • 1-0 win v Levante and 0-0 v Espanyol in 2 home matches for Alaves.
  • Getafe liked it last year and are odds-on favourites today. Very tight matches both sides. Back 0-0 pre-match? If these defences are on top. I tend to cash out halftime.

20:00 - Betis v Leganes - 1.99 Betis

  • 1st half outcome: Real Betis have drawn the first half in 11/14 home matches against bottom-six teams as have Leganes in 8/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Leganes have lost 12/20 away matches.
  • 1-0 Betis and 3-0 Leganes last 2 head to heads.
  • Both sides have lost their first 2 matches. Leganes only 0-1 losses.
  • No strong angles for me yet. Head to heads were inconclusive. And both sides have 2/2 losses.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

  • Over 2.5 goals in 7/9 and 8/9 games so far this campaign!!

14:30 - Freiburg v FC Koln - 2.52 Freiburg

  • Newly promoted Koln so watching brief.
  • Market cannot split these 2.
  • 1st goal: SC Freiburg have scored first in 9/12 home matches while bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have lost 56% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • 2 3 goal wins so far for Freiburg plays 2 defeats for Koln, despite scoring.
  • I personally would be with Freiburg on the sample we see here. Confidence high and recently beat newly promoted Paderborn away from home.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Paderborn - 1.48 Wolfsburg

  • Wolfsburg found newly promoted FC Koln easy meat at about the same odds and the market suspects similar of newly promoted Paderborn.
  • 2/2 wins so far for the Wolf. 3-2 and 1-3 losses for Paderborn. Scoring but tending to find the top flight forward lines a little too good so far.
  • I must be with the Wolf here.2-2 and 2-1 at halftime for Paderborn this season suggests lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market albeit after only 2 matches.

14:30 - Schalke 04 v Hertha Berlin - 2.2 Schalke

  • Match outcome: Hertha Berlin have lost 11/15 away matches against middle-third teams and they have lost the first half in 11/15 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Schalke 04 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Schalke are yet to score this season in a 0-0 v Mgladbach and 0-3 loss to Bayern.
  • 2-2 v Bayern and 0-3 loss v the Wolf for Hertha.
  • 0-2 Hertha and 2-2 last season's head to heads.
  • Schalke need watching. 2nd 2 season's ago. Relegation threatened for a large proportion of last season and lost their old extremely strong pattern for scoring in every match!!

14:30 - Leverkusen v Hoffenheim - 1.59 Leverkusen

  • All Hail the Hoff. Provider of all that is Good.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Leverkusen home matches against top-half teams and in 9/11 Hoffenheim away matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 11/19 Leverkusen home matches.
  • I thought personally that 1.59 was a tad short for a Leverkusen huffing and puffing to beat Paderborn.
  • 1-0 loss v Frankfurt saw the Hoff have 2 goals disallowed. 3-2 win v Werder had it all. Goal before halftime CHECK. Conceding first then recovering CHECK, Desmond 2-2 CHECK, end to Desmond CHECK.
  • Both sides yet to see a 0-0 at halftime. In fact, 4 and 3 goals in total for Leverkusen before halftime.
  • 1-4 Leverkusen then 2 4-1 wins for the Hoff in head to heads. No wonder my stats software fancies overs.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market on what I have seen so far.

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Mainz - 1.11 Bayern

  • Bayern tend to beat Mainz, scoring 2+ goals in head to heads. Fits in with the 1.11 odds which suggest a goal before halftime (20 minute first half strategy?).
  • Asian handicap: FSV Mainz 05 have lost by two or more goals in 11/16 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost the first half in 12/16 such matches. Bayern have won 9/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • bayern are scoring 2+ this season. Mainz have conceded 3 goals in each of 2 defeats. Looks rather ominous for Mainz.

14:30 - Union Berlin v Dortmund - 1.34 Dortmund

  • Welcome to the Bundesliga Union. Likely to get a tonking.
  • 1st goal: Bottom-six promoted teams have scored first in 50% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15 while B. Dortmund have conceded first in 5/8 away matches against promoted teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 B. Dortmund away matches against promoted teams. - Well if this is accurate, we might get some trading action!
  • 4-0 loss v Leipzig is what I'd expect here of Union. 1-1 draw with Augsburg will have them chuffed. Dortmund have conceded in their 2 matches, but scored 8 goal in reply. Union conceded 3 goals by halftime v Leipzig so we would expect a goal before halftime.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - AC Milan v Brescia - 1.52 AC Milan

  • Match outcome: AC Milan have won 8/9 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 62% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • Poor start to the season for AC Milan. 1-0 loss v Udinese. Brescia beat Cagliari 0-1. What a start to their Seria A season!
  • Must win territory already for AC Milan!

19:45 - Juventus v Napoli - 2.04 Juventus

  • 1st half outcome: Juventus have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams as have Napoli in 7/8 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 14/20 Napoli away matches.
  • 3-1 Juventus and 1-2 Juventus in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 0-1 Juve win v Parma away and 2-3 Napoli win v Fiorentina in their opener.
  • Should be a humdinger. Juventus have had the best of it though in very recent head to heads.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Heerenveen v Fortuna Sittard - 1.51 Heerenveen

  • Match outcome: Heerenveen have won 11/18 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sittard have lost 8/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Sittard have lost by two or more goals in 8/10 away matches.
  • 3-1 and 2-4 Heerenveen last 2 head to heads and no wonder they are strong favourites on that basis.
  • Poor start to Heerenveen's season winning only the opening match. 2 draws at home.
  • Heerenveen have failed to score last 2 matches.
  • Fortuna have played a match less, lost 2 matches conceding 4 and 3 goals and draw 1-1 at home v Heracles.
  • The market thinks that Heerenveen can rediscover that head to head form v Fortuna but they are not having the best of starts and need to end two failed to score matches.

18:45 - FC GRONINGEN v Heracles - 2.12 FC Groningen

  • Match outcome: Groningen have won 8/10 home matches while H Almelo have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to middle-third teams. Groningen have scored first in 11/14 home matches.
  • 4-1 Heracles and 3-0 Groningen last 2 head to heads.
  • 0-1 win, 1-3 loss, 0-0 so far this season. Groningen delighted to have smothered the goal threat from AZ Alkmaar. 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw Heracles so far. 2 1-1 draws and 1 away draw in 1 away match v Fortuna.
  • Not a wholly appealing match between 2 teams with a touch of the Arthur Daleys about them. Would you trust them?

19:45 - ADO Den Haag v VVV Venlo - 2.16 ADO Den Haag

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Den Haag home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and in 11/13 VVV-Venlo away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 9/12 Den Haag home matches.
  • 2-0 win and 2-4 win for VVV last 2 head to heads.
  • Goal fests both sides this season. 6-4-3-3 goals in total for ADO and 4-5-5-3 goals in total for VVV.
  • 3 losses and a win for ADO who have scored in all matches. VVV have also scored in all matches, with 2 wins and 2 defeats.
  • footballformlabs therefore might be onto something with that expectation for goals. Use your creativity. If 0-0 at halftime, what are you going to do?
  • Do you think there is a chance of a first half goal with goal totals like that....if they are transferable to this match!!?

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

Aberdeen v Ross Co - 1.69 Aberdeen

  • 1st half outcome: Aberdeen have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against promoted teams. Top half non-Big One promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of away matches against top-half teams since 2014-15. Aberdeen have scored first in 8/12 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Aberdeen started their season brightly with a win v Hearts but have failed to score since then in a 1-0 loss to St Mirren and 0-0 v Kilmarnock.
  • Ross started their season well in this tougher league with a 3-0 home win v Hamilton, 0-0 away at Hearts but lost 1-4 to Livingston. Wheels falling off?
  • What is with Aberdeen? Not a patch on the reliable sorts of last season......just yet. And must solve their current fail to score sequence.

Hearts v Hamilton - 1.42 Hearts

  • HT/FT: Hearts have had W/W double results in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hamilton Ac have lost by two or more goals in 8/10 away matches. Hamilton Ac have had L/L double results in 8/12 away matches.
  • 2-0 Hearts and 1-0 Hamilton last 2 head to heads.
  • Hearts did have a tough opener v 2 of the top 3, losing 3-2 to Aberdeen despite leading and 3-1 v Celtic. Sole home match was a 0-0 v newly promoted Ross County. Given Aberdeen are showing poorly, that loss v Aberdeen compounds the feeling Hearts are yet to get off the ground. The market thinks Diddy David Hamilton is just the ticket.
  • 2 losses for Hamilton and a 2-0 win v Kilmarnock.
  • I cannot trust Hearts just yet so watching brief with one eye on the 1.42 odds needing justifying.

Livingston v St Mirren - 1.9 Livingston

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 4/5 St Mirren away matches against top half non-Big One teams and +3.5 goals in 3/5 St Mirren such matches. Livingston have conceded first in 3/5 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 0-2 Livingston, 3-1 Livingston, 1-0 St Mirren, 1-3 St Mirren in recent head to heads. A real swing towards St Mirren in 2019 head to heads.
  • 2 draws and a win v newly promoted Ross County sees Livvy unbeaten.They have scored 2+ goals in 2 consecutive matches.
  • All 3 St Mirren matches have been 1-0, but 2 were losses v Hibs and Rangers. The goals in those defeats came 2nd half. The win was at home v Aberdeen.
  • Is St Mirren going to be a tough nut to crack? Do remember Livvy are on a 2 goal a game sequence? An interesting match where it seems we can lay St Mirren if they score first but cover the 0-1 as that was the sole winning scoreline of theirs, and then hope Livvy's 2 goal habit kicks in.

Motherwell v Hibernian - 2.56 Motherwell

  • HT/FT: Hibernian have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-half teams and they have lost the first half in 8/10 such matches. Motherwell have won 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams.

St Johnstone v Kilmarnock - 2.6 Kilmarnock

  • HT/FT: Hibernian have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-half teams and they have lost the first half in 8/10 such matches. Motherwell have won 7/9 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • These final 2 matches I will let breathe. Both 2.5+ the favourite and so early in the season. I'll take the market's hint but will include footballformlabs ideas.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:00 - Sporting Lisbon v Rio Ave - 1.38 Sporting

  • 1-1, 2-1 v Braga and 1-3 away win v Portimonense for Sporting so far. they are conceding.
  • 1-0 loss and 5-1 win v Aves for Rio.
  • Sporting tend to win head to heads scoring 2+ goals.
  • Simplistic angle.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

12:30 - Elfsborg v Sirius - 1.94 Elfsborg

  • 4-2 Sirius and 2-4 Elf last 2 head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/19 IF Elfsborg home matches and they have drawn the first half in 10/14 home matches. Sirius have lost 10/12 away matches against top-half teams. The head to heads disagree with the footballformlabs here.

Elfsborg (8th)

  • 2 consecutive wins, conceding.
  • Conceded last 9 matches.
  • 50% of home matches 0-0 at halftime.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • All home wins (5) came v 9th and lower.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Sirius (12th)

  • No win in 8 and in 4 away.
  • 5 consecutive defeats, 2 away.
  • Conceded last 8 matches and conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 8.
  • 9 goals conceded first half away.

Conclusions

  • If the Elf do win at home, it tends to come around teams where Sirius are positioned. Sirius, probability wise, are unlikely to win, more likely to draw and lose if their record v top 8 continues.
  • Sirius are very layable if scoring first. Conceding 2+ goals for fun of late. That Elf odds might look generous come 90 minutes.
  • Do remember Elf 50% 0-0's at halftime but do not expect a full time 0-0.

15:00 - Orebro v AFC Utd - 1.75 Orebro

  • HT/FT: AFC United have had L/L double results in 6/10 away matches and they have lost 8/10 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Orebro home matches.

Orebro (9th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches with only 1 loss.
  • 7 0-1 defeats at home at halftime.
  • Only 2 wins v 2nd and 14th. 1-1 away v AFC earlier this season.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AFC (15th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 away win did come 2nd last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 3-1 and one was 2-1.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • All defeats away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • AFC's record v top 8 away is appalling. It's not beyond the realms to suggest it could continue v 9th. For that reason I'm with Orebro today. Do note Orebro's goalscoring record 2nd half!

AUSTRIAN BUNDESLIGA

16:00 - Admira Wacker v Mattersburg - 2.26 Admira

  • 0-0, 2-2, 0-2 Mattersburg and 1-1 last 4 head to heads. Generally Mattersburg went unbeaten.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Wacker home matches and in 9/12 SV Mattersburg away matches. SV Mattersburg have lost 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • NO win yet for Wacker sees 4 defeats. No clean sheets.
  • Wacker have failed to score in their 2 home matches.
  • A win and 4 defeats Mattersburg.
  • Not exactly 2 shining lights here.

16:00 - LASK Linz v Wolfsberger AC - 2.08 LASK

  • 2-0 win, 1-1, 0-3 and 3-0 all in LASK's favour.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 for LASK this season. No 0-0 at halftime. They have conceded last 2 matches.
  • 3 wins and 2 defeats for Wolfsberger this season. 3-0-2-5-5 goals scored by the Wolf this season.
  • Despite the head to heads, LasK are tentative favourites.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you want. LASK will have to keep a lid on the Wolf if they start going goal crazy.

16:00 - WSG Wattens v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.1 Red Bull Salzburg

  • Red Bull have been reliable at short odds.
  • 5/5 wins for Red Bull scoring 2-4-5-6-5 goals.
  • If 0-0 after 20 minutes, back 0-1, 0-2 or any unquoted in the halftime score market.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

17:00 - Stabaek v Stromsgodset - 2.34 Stabaek

  • Match outcome: Stabaek have drawn 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Stromsgodset have drawn 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Stabaek have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Stabaek (12th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 4 draws and a win last 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Only 2 losses at home were 0-1 v 5th and 12th.
  • 0-0 and 2-2 at home v the bottom 3.
  • 0-2 win v Stroms earlier this season.

Stroms (15th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches came at home.
  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 7 away.
  • Conceded  2+ goals in each of their last 4 away.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 clean sheets Stroms suggests they may concede. And in that case if 0-1 to Stroms, lay them it seems. No defeat in 5 at home for Stabaek.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

15:00 - Nordsjaelland v Hobro - 1.52 Nord

  • HT/FT: Nordsjaelland have had W/W double results in 6/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Hobro have conceded first in 14/19 away matches. Hobro have lost 8/10 away matches against top-half teams.
  • 3-2 Hobro and 2-1 Nords last 2 head to heads.

Nords (5th)

  • All 3 defeats came away.
  • 2 goals scored in all home matches, 2 wins and a draw.
  • Scored every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Hobro (10th)

  • Only 1 loss came v Brondby.
  • 5 draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Scored and conceded all aways.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 6 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • First thing for me, is if we see a 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals. Hobro have only 1 clean sheet and Nords are scoring 2 goals regularly at home. Nords have scored in every match so note that.