DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 30, 2017

14:30 live chat today in what looks like a good coupon. Form is fleshing out so we can come to some better conclusions pre-match. See you on Twitter @drtclub at 14:30.
ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP
12:30 - Huddersfield v Tottenham - 1.43 Tottenham
- Spurs have won 9/10 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/8 such matches.
- Top-half promoted teams have drawn the first half in 62% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Surprisingly both sides have had only the one loss this season.
- 3 draws in 4 matches for Huddersfield suggests the pace may be telling.
- Huddersfield have failed to score in 3 of 4 matches now.
- 1-0-1 scored at home by Huddersfield.
- Tottenham have now scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.
- I do think Tottenham should score 2 goals at least today if the Huddersfield defence does not smother them, and the Champions League does not leave a hangover.
- There is potential for a 0-0 for a while as obviously Huddersfield are reliant on defending. They have yet to meet a marquee team. This is the big test today.
- 0-0 at halftime has occured in Huddersfield's last 4 matches.
15:00 - Bournemouth v Leicester - 2.7 Leicester
- 0-0, 1-0 Bournemouth, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
- Both sides have had the single win this season.
- 0-2, 1-2, 2-1 at home for Bournemouth. 5 losses.
- Bournemouth have yet to keep a clean sheet.
- Leicester have failed to score in only one match but then only won one match.
- Leicester have had the toughest of openers v Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, and Liverpool. I suspect this is an easier assignment for Leicester today.
- I will back 2-1/1-2 as I did mid week with Nottingham Forest and Fulham, which I was able to successfully trade out at 1-1. I do think 2-1/1-2 has a chance here today.
15:00 - Man Utd v C Palace - 1.18 Man Utd
- 1-2 and 2-0 Man Utd in the last 2 head to heads.
- Man Utd have won 13/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while C Palace have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to top-six teams.
- C Palace have lost the first half in 9/12 away matches against top-six teams.
Man Utd
- Unbeaten this season. Only conceded v Stoke and that was a pre-Champions League match.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- 4-4-2-2-4-1 goals scored this season.
Palace
- Have failed to score in all matches.
- No clean sheets.
- Thus, all defeats.
- 3 of the losses were 1-0.
Conclusions
- It does all look rather straightforward. A home side tending to keep clean sheets v an away side failing to score.
- Woy will wemain defensive today and hope to wealise a 0-1. So watch out for a potential late late show a la United this season.
- That said, United have only had the 1 0-0 at halftime. I would not lay the 0-0 at halftime until 30th minute +. There is potential for Palace to try and strangle United.
- 1-0, 3-0, 4-0 are potential United scorelines today.
15:00 - Stoke v Southampton - 2.7 Southampton
- 0-0 and 0-1 Stoke in the last 2 head to heads.
- Southampton have won 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have won the first half in 6/8 such matches.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Stoke home matches against middle-third teams.
Stoke
- Only 1 win was a 1-0 home win v Arsenal.
- Both teams have scored in the last 4 matches with Stoke not winning.
- Only 1 clean sheet came v Arsenal.
- The last 2 home matches were v Man Utd and Chelsea.
Southampton
- 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 away scorelines.
- Failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Conclusions
- I am with the market here. I haven't a clue. Home side scoring and conceding in their last 4 matches v an away side with 0-0, 0-0, 0-1.
15:00 - West Brom v Watford - 2.32 West Brom
- 3-1 West Brom and 2-0 Watford in the last 2 head to heads.
- WBA have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Watford away matches.
West Brom
- 2 1-0 wins started the season but no win since.
- 1-1-1-1-0-0 scored this season.
- 1-0, 1-1 and 0-0 in their 3 home wins.
- 2 losses came away.
Watford
- Only one loss was a tonking v Man City.
- 0-2, 0-2, 1-2 away - good stuff.
Conclusions
- Not a match I am keen to focus on. If we go strictly on form, 1-2 or 0-2 looks like the scoreline to back.
15:00 - West Ham v Swansea - 1.87 West Ham
- West Ham have won the last 2 head to heads.
- Only 1 win for both sides this season.
- West Ham's win came in their first home match v Huddersfield.
- 2 late goals for West Ham were not enough at home as Spurs scored 3.
- Swansea have kept 3 clean sheets away, 2 0-0's and a 0-2 away.
- Swansea have failed to score in 4 matches.
- There is nothing in West Ham's form (bar head to heads) to suggest they are backable at odds on.
- I would tentatively back 0-0 here pre match given Swansea's 3 away clean sheets. I tend to trade out if 0-0 at halftime.
17:30 - Chelsea v Man City - 2.58 Man City
- 1-3 and 2-1 Chelsea in the last 2 head to heads. Intriguing...
- Man City have won by two or more goals in 7/11 away matches and they have won 8/11 away matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Chelsea home matches against top-six teams.
- Chelsea failed to score only against Arsenal at home in a 0-0. Chelsea's loss to Burnley was down to 2 red cards.
- 2-1-2-5-6-5 goals scored by City this season. 3 consecutive clean sheets for Man City.
- Not a match for me to trade. It is too tight to call. But intriguing that Chelsea lead the head to heads.
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP
15:00 - Aston Villa v Bolton - 1.42 Aston Villa
- 1-2 Aston Villa and 1-2 Bolton in the last 2 head to heads.
- Aston Villa have scored first in 9/13 home matches while Bolton have lost 3/5 away matches.
- Bolton have lost by two or more goals in 3/5 away matches.
Aston Villa
- Only 2 defeats came away from home and within the first 3 matches of the season.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 2 0-0's at home in 3 home matches.
- 3 consecutive wins scoring 3-2-4 suggests we should not see another 0-0 today.
- Bolton are bottom of the league and Villa have not played a bottom 3 side home or away yet.
- No opponent has scored in the first half at home.
Bolton
- 7 consecutive defeats.
- No wins.
- Failed to score in 6 consecutive matches.
- Conceded 2 goals at least in 6 of 7 matches.
- Scored only 1 goal away which was an away goal.
Conclusions
- Bolton will begin scoring again, but tend to lose 2-0 away to teams around Villa's position in the league.
- We should expect a home win and I do not think we will see a 0-0 today - there have been 2 0-0's recently at home.
- Villa re highly likely to be the goalscorers if there is a goal in the first half.
15:00 - Burton v Wolves - 1.74 Wolves
- 1-1 and 2-1 Burton in the last 2 head to heads.
- Burton have lost 4/5 home matches against top-six teams while Wolves have scored first in 10/19 away matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 10/15 Wolves away matches.
Burton
- 2-1, 1-1, 2-1 at home sandwiched between 2 home losses.
- Failed to score though in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Conceded in their last 5 home matches.
- 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came first half.
- 4 of 5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Wolverhampton
- Only 2 defeats and one came away last match.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 0-2, 2-3, 0-0, 1-2, and then 2-0 loss away for Wolves. Normally they have goals in them away.
- Wins away v 15th, 16th, 17th and play 19th today.
Conclusions
- Wolves will be looking not to lose a 2nd consecutive away match. On form, Wolves should be confident as they have 3 wins away v teams around Burton in the league.
- On that basis, I would lay Burton if Burton scored first.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the assumption that if Wolves score, it will be first half.
15:00 - Cardiff v Derby - 1.98 Cardiff
- 0-2 Derby and 3-4 Cardiff.
- Cardiff have won 7/10 home matches while Derby have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Derby away matches against top-six teams.
Cardiff
- Top of the league.
- Only one loss came away from home.
- Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win at home.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Conceded in their last 7 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No 0-0.
- Scored pretty equally first and second halves at home.
Derby County
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches - won only 1 of those.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
- 5 goals scored away came within the first 30 mins of matches. Watch out for this as I feel Cardiff can equalise.
- 5 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.
Conclusions
- Cardiff should not lose today. Watch for an early Derby goal. They tend to score early in the first half away. I would expect Cardiff to equalise if that continues.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- We should expect 2 goals at least.
15:00 - Middlesbrough v Brentford - 1.94 Boro
- Newly relegated Boro.
- Relegated teams have scored first in 59% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13 while Brentford have lost the first half in 6/8 away matches against relegated teams.
- Middlesbrough have won 3/5 home matches.
Middlesbrough
- Only 1 home loss was a 0-1 v Norwich last home match.
- Conceded only in their last 2 home matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- All goals scored at home within the 60th minute.
Brentford
- Only 2 losses in 8 matches came away from home.
- Only 1 win all season came away from home last match.
- Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win.
- Only win was v bottom side.
Conclusions
- It looks to be that Boro should not lose today. They have, though, started conceding goals at home.
- Brentford, though, have only beaten bottom side this season and on that basis must be layed if scoring first.
- Boro tend to score, if they score at home, within the hour mark. It suggests, if you want, a lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. That covers 45 minutes of the 60 minutes.
15:00 - Millwall v Barnsley - 1.73 Millwall
- These 2 last met in League One.
- Millwall have won 3/5 home matches while Barnsley have lost 9/11 away matches.
- Barnsley have conceded first in 7/10 away matches.
Millwall
- 3 consecutive home wins.
- Only 1 loss in 7 was against a good looking Wolves side.
- 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime and only one was a 0-0 at fulltime.
- Scored in their last 5 at home.
- No 0-0 at home.
Barnsley
- Only 2 wins came at home.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- 1-0-1-1 scored away.
- All defeats v the current top 9. Millwall are currently 12th.
- 5 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Millwall should not lose on early season form. If Barnsley cannot score that 2nd goal currently away from home, they become layable if scoring first.
- If 0-0 at halftime fear not. Barnsley have concedeed in 5 of 7 goals away in the 2nd half.
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
12:00 - Deportivo v Getafe - 2.32 Deportivo
- No head to heads since May 2016.
- Deportivo have scored first in 5/8 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have lost 56% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
- Middle-third promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 55% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
Depor
- Only 1 win for Deportivo came last match at home.
- They scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches.
- Met Real Madrid and Sociedad at home so an easier assignment today.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
Getafe
- Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 matches.
- Failed to score away v Ath Bilbao. 1-2 and 1-1 away in their last 2 matches v Legane and Celta Vigo.
Conclusions
- Not a match which greatly appeals. Depor could score and concede as they have v top 12.
15:15 - Sevilla v Malaga - 1.35 Sevilla
- Sevilla tend to win home head to heads.
- Malaga won the last head to head, 4-2 at home.
- Sevilla have won 14/20 home matches while Malaga have had L/L double results in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- Malaga have lost 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.
Sevilla
- A draw and 2 wins at home. The 2 wins were to nil.
- 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime yet no 0-0 at fulltime.
- Only 1 loss away v Atl Madrid.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Malaga
- 5 losses and a 3-3 draw.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Conclusions
- Sevilla should eye the 3 points today. They tend to win in head to heads and meet a Malaga side in poor form, yet to win.
- If 0-0 at halftime fear not, Sevilla have seen 5 0-0's at halftime yet no 0-0 fulltime.
- Do be wary. Sevilla have only scored 1-1 -3-1-1-0 goals. Only once have they scored more than 2 goals.
17:30 - Levante v Alaves - 1.87 Levante
- Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 61% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
- Alaves have conceded first in 8/10 away matches.
- Alaves have lost all matches this season, and failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
- 3 away defeats for Alaves were 1-0 only so we may see some firm defensive resistance from the away side.
- Levante are in good nick. They only lost their last match. 3 draws and 2 wins in the other 5 matches.
- 1-2-1-3 scored at home.
- Alaves look layable if they can score for the 2nd consecutive match. Teams are scoring a single first half goal in Alaves away matches and leaving it at that!
- Levante should not lose today.
19:45 - Leganes v Atletico Madrid - 1.65 Atl Madrid
- 5 clean sheets for the winning side in head to heads. Leganes have only managed the single win.
Leganes
- 4 clean sheets this season.
- 0-0 last home match.
- Have lost when conceding.
- 1-1-0 scored at home may not be enough for a win today.
Atl Madrid
- Unbeaten this season.
- 3 consecutive wins.
- Slight hiccup v Girona in opener saw me on the verge of a 5K payout as Atl Madrid came from 2-0 down.
- Since that match, Atl have conceded 1-0-1-1-0.
Conclusions
- It does look rather straightforward. Atl Madrid should break any obvious Leganes defensive stand. Leganes did have a 0-0 last match and that should end.
- Let's hope Leganes score first as Leganes will rarely score a 2nd.
- If 0-0 at halftime fear not,Atl Madrid's last 5 goals scored in 2nd half.
ITALIAN SERIA A
17:00 - Udinese v Sampdoria - 2.74 Samp
- 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
- Udinese have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-half teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Sampdoria away matches against bottom-six teams.
Udinese
- Scored and conceded in all 5 defeats.
- Single win was a 1-0 home win v Genoa.
- No 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Sampdoria
- Failed to score only once.
- Only 2 clean sheets came last 2 matches.
- Scored 2 goals in 4 of 5 matches.
Conclusions
- On form, Sampdoria should not be losing today.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- What is with this market? Very strange. Why are Samp not strong favourites?
- 2-2 might be backable here pre match given the strong both teams to score stat for Udinese.
19:45 - Genoa v Bologna - 2.4 Genoa
- 0-1 Genoa and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
- Genoa have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams while as have Bologna in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Bologna away matches against bottom-six teams.
Genoa
- No win.
- 2-4 Juventus and 2-3 Lazio were the 2 losses at home.
- Only 1 clean sheet came first match of the season.
Bologna
- 0-1, 2-1 Fiorentina, 0-1 away for Bologna. Only 1 goal scored but 2 wins from it.
Conclusions
- Not a match which immediately grabs me. Bologna are scoring only a single goal away (3 away matches).
- Genoa have conceded in all bar 1 match.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
16:00 - Paris St-G v Bordeaux - 1.17 PSG
- 2-4-3 goals scored by PSG in their last 3 head to heads. A spanking of Bayern mid week sees PSG in great form. They are buying the title of course.
- Paris St-G have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches and they have won 9/10 home matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Bordeaux away matches against top-six teams.
PSG
- All wins bar a 0-0 last match. Again that occurred prior to a Champions League match.
- Scored 2+ goals in all matches.
- Conceded 2 goals only once but scored 6 goals.
- 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Bordeaux
- Unbeaten this season.
- 3 draws came away from home.
- Failed to score only once in a 0-0 away.
- 2+ goals scored in 5 matches.
Conclusions
- PSG, as 1.17 shots, are expected to score 3/4 goals today. Bordeaux are unbeaten which intrigues.
- Prepare for a potential set up where Bordeaux, with a confident unbeaten start, may be tough to score against initially.
19:00 - Rennes v Caen - 1.93 Rennes
- Rennes have won the last 2 head to heads 2-0 and 0-1.
- Rennes have scored first in 12/20 home matches while SM Caen have lost 8/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- SM Caen have conceded first in 10/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
Rennes
- Both teams have scored in 6 of 7 matches.
- 1-2, 2-2 and 0-1 at home.
- No clean sheet.
- Failed to score only once.
- Only 1 win was a 1-3 away at Marseille.
- Losses at home v 7th and 9th and play 8th today.
- No 0-0.
- Not conceded a home goal in the first half.
Caen
- 4 wins in 5 matches. 3 of those wins came at home.
- 1-0, 0-2, 1-0 Caen. 2 1-0 losses away.
- Not conceded 2 goals in a match yet this season.
- All 4 wins v teams 16th and lower. Rennes are 15th.
Conclusions
- It is early in the season but on strict form, albeit only 7 matches, Caen are advantaged.
- Rennes have lost at home v 7th and 9th at home. Caen have beaten all teams 16th and lower.
DUTCH EREDIVISIE
18:45 - PSV v Willem II - 1.19 PSV
- 0-0 and 5-0 PSV in the last 2 head to heads.
- PSV have won 17/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Willem II have lost 5/6 away matches against Big Two teams.
- PSV have won by two or more goals in 14/19 home matches against bottom-six teams.
PSV
- 5 wins and a loss v Heerenveen.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- 3-2, 2-0, 1-0 at home.
- Failed to score only once.
Willem II
- In direct contrast, 5 losses and a single win.
- No clean sheets.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- A 1-3 win last away match.
Conclusions
- This should be an easy win with at least a goal before halftime.
- 2 teams in direct contrast.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 - Aberdeen v St Johnstone - 1.59 Aberdeen
- Draw, 1-2 Aberdeen, 0-2 St Johnstone, 0-3 Aberdeen in the last 4 head to heads.
- Aberdeen have won 10/14 home matches and they have scored first in 11/14 home matches.
- St Johnstone have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.
Aberdeen
- Unbeaten.
- 2 draws in 3 matches.
- 2-0, 2-1, 1-1 at home.
- Failed to score only once, away v Hearts.
St Johnstone
- Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 matches.
- Only loss was a 3-2 away at Dundee.
- Scored in every match.
- 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 loss away for St J.
Conclusions
- St Johnstone will be a team up there this season, perhaps even top 4. Their draw with Celtic shows what St J can do at their best. Their 3-2 loss v Dundee was a surprise for me.
- Aberdeen are in great nick.
- This could be a both teams to score match and really St J could giive Aberdeen a battle. I would not back Aberden at 1.59. I feel that is too short. Lay Aberdeen if Aberdeen score first?
15:00 - Celtic v Hibernian - 1.25 Celtic
- These 2 last met in 2014.
- Celtic have won 17/20 home matches and they have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches.
- Top half non-Big One promoted teams have conceded first in 53% of away matches against Big One teams since 2012-13.
Celtic
- All wins bar a 1-1 v St Johnstone.
- 4-1, 1-1, 4-0 at home.
- Have yet to concede a 2nd goal.
Hibernian
- Scored and conceded in 6 matches. A 0-1 v Ross last match.
- Did beat Rangers 2-3 but Rangers did have a man sent off.
- 3 score draws and a win last 4 matches.
Conclusions
- Celtic are obvious favourites. Watch out for a Hibs goal though. They are scoring regularly.....but conceding regularly.
- Let's hope Hibs score first as I think they are vulnerable given those recent score draws.
15:00 - Dundee v Hearts - 2.04 Hearts
- 3-2 the last time Hearts visited Dundee.
- Dundee have scored first in 5/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Hearts have lost 11/17 away matches.
- Hearts have conceded first in 8/13 away matches.
Dundee
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
- Only 1 win was a 3-2 v St Johnstone which surprised me.
- Conceded in every match.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- 100% over 1.5 goals.
Hearts
- 2 defeats came away v Celtic and Motherwell.
- 1-1-0-1-2-1 scored away. A large number of away matches so early in the season.
- In only those 2 defeats did Hearts concede 2 goals or more.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
Conclusions
- Dundee have conceded in every match and I would expect Hearts to get a goal. Hearts have played 6 away matches already and scored in all bar 1 match so a hope they score.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on matches so far.
- Dundee are layable if scoring first I feel although their recent win over St Johnstone throws a small spanner in the works.
15:00 - Kilmarnock v Ross Co - 2.62 Kilmarnock
- 3-2 Kilmarnock, 1-2 Kilmarnock, 1-2 Ross County in the last 3 head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 Kilmarnock home matches.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Ross County away matches against bottom-six teams.
Kilmarnock
- No win.
- 3 in 4 matches were score draws.
- Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 matches at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- No 0-0.
- Bottom of the league.
Ross County
- A bottom 3 side as well.
- Only 1 win came first match.
- Failed to score last 2 aways in defeats v Motherwell and Celtic.
- 5 losses in 6 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- No 0-0.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on these 2 teams' early matches.
- 2 bottom 3 sides so totally unreliable form wise.
15:00 - Motherwell v Partick - 2.2 Motherwell
- 2-0 Motherwell and 1-0 Partick last 2 head to heads.
- Motherwell have won by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have won 7/10 such matches.
- Partick Th. have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against top-half teams.
Motherwell
- 1-2-2-2-0 scored at home. Lost 0-1 v Aberdeen recently.
- Bar that Aberdeen loss, Motherwell scored 2 goals in 4 consecutive matches.
- Failed to score only in that Aberdeen match.
Partick
- No win.
- 4 losses and 3 score draws.
- Recent 2-2 draw with Rangers and 1-1 draw with Hearts does catch the eye.
- 3-4 loss to Aberdeen too suggests Partick can be a thorn in a side.
Conclusions
- Partick look layable if scoring first and indeed scoring a 2nd. They look combative v the big sides 3-4 v Aberdeen, 2-2 v Rangers and 1-1 v Hearts.