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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Everton v Newcastle - 1.50 Everton

Everton - 7th

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches were 1-0 losses.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal in 9 matches.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • That was the only loss home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 10/16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Newcastle - 16th

  • 7 losses and 2 draws last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score last 4 away.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 7/8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Newcastle in-play stats v Leeds did impress me enough to lay Leeds late on but Newcastle's goal shy front like is not the most reliable and that is likely to be their downfall here.
  • Everton are clicking, not conceding 2 goals and did take the lead v Leicester mid week.
  • Newcastle tend to keep it tight first half but eventually capitulate.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Newcastle away matches against top-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches. Everton have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Crystal Palace v Wolves - 2.70 Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace - 13th

  • Only 6 wins.
  • Scored first v West Ham latest but lost.
  • Have scored 2 goals in 2 consecutive home matches.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Wins at home v 11th, 12th, 20th.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Wolves - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches came v Arsenal and Chelsea. 0-0 latest again v Chelsea.
  • 3 losses and 2 draws last 5 away matches.
  • v 8th and lower away, only one defeat.
  • 2-0 win v Palace earlier.
  • 7/9 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides in relatively poor recent form makes it tough to trust either side, as per the 2.7 quote.
  • Both sides have a very strong first half goalscoring record which you may want to factor in if, say, it is 0-0 after 25 minutes.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 C Palace home matches against middle-third teams while Wolves have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 10/15 Wolves away matches.

15:00 - Man City v Sheffield Utd - 1.17 Man City

Man City - 1st

  • 9 wins and 2 draws last 11 matches.
  • 9 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • 6 wins to nil in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Scored first in 9/10 at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

Sheffield United - 20th

  • Another Manchester side. No sweat! 1-2 away win v Man Utd last match.
  • They have conceded last 10 away and, like the Man Utd match, I could see City equalise if conceding first.
  • 0-1 loss v Man City earlier this season.
  • 10 goals conceded 61st+ minute away.

Conclusions

  • Surely not a 2nd consecutive away win v a top 2 side for Sheffield United? They'd better get Sean Bean on the bench to bolster their chances today.
  • It was only 0-1 last time. I did delay in the match with Man Utd in anticipation of a Sheffield United rear guard action and they did not disappoint. I would consider backing 0-0 pre match and hoping this defensive stoutness continues today.
  • HT/FT: Man City have had W/W double results in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sheffield Utd have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to top-six teams. Man City have won 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - West Brom v Fulham - 2.37 Fulham

West Brom - 19th

  • Big Sam has had a tough set of fixtures with which to work his magic. Their last 4 losses read 0-3, 0-5, 0-4, 0-5.
  • The sole win came v Wolves away and required 2 West Brom penalties. They will naturally feel that Fulham are gettable today, a fellow newly promoted side.

Fulham

  • 6 points collected from 8 matches, all care of draws. No 2nd goal scored since their last win in 30th November.

Conclusions

  • Another match I call a 'Jeffrey Archer Novel' Very hard to read and best left alone.
  • Asian handicap: WBA have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches and they have conceded first in 7/10 home matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Fulham away matches.

17:30 - Arsenal v Man Utd - 2.37 Man Utd

  • Too high profile to do pre-match research. 5 wins and a 0-0 last 6 matches for Arsenal is the best way to judge this revival. 4 clean sheets in those 6 matches and an impressive 3-1 win v Chelsea started that revival.
  • Man Utd's last loss, on the 1st November, was a 0-1 loss v Arsenal.
  • No strong angles here. In-play stats or not at all.
  • 1st half outcome: Arsenal have won the first half in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams while Man Utd have conceded first in 8/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Arsenal have scored first in 10/13 home matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Southampton v Aston Villa - 2.60 Southampton

Southampton - 11th

  • Only 1 win in 7 was a 1-0 win v Liverpool.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats v Leicester and Arsenal.
  • Scored first in 8/10 at home.
  • 3-4 win v Aston Villa earlier this season. v top 10 beat 5th and 7th at home.
  • 10/15 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Aston Villa - 9th

  • Draw, Loss, Loss last 3 away - the losses v 1st and 2nd in the league.
  • Unbeaten away v 8th and lower. 4 clean sheets there.
  • 9/14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2. Head to heads are not in keeping with Aston Villa's clean sheets v 8th and lower away from home.
  • Both sides luke warm in their recent form.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/16 Southampton home matches and in 6/8 Aston Villa away matches against middle-third teams. Aston Villa have drawn the first half in 6/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Celtic v St Mirren - 1.33 Celtic

Celtic - 2nd

  • Performed as expected mid week v Hamilton.
  • Loss, 3 draws and a win latest.
  • 2 draws and a win last 3 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat 7 at home.
  • Only losses v Rangers.

St Mirren - 7th

  • Emphatic 1-5 win v Dundee United mid week.
  • Ended a run of 4 without a win.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 3/3 losses away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • St Mirren keep losing to the top 4 away. Simple angle!
  • HT/FT: Celtic have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams while St Mirren have conceded first in 9/15 away matches. Celtic have won 17/20 home matches against middle-third teams.

15:00 - Dundee Utd v Hibernian - 1.85 Hibernian

Dundee United - 6th

  • 1-5 mauling by St Mirren mid week was certainly not foreseen by market makers.
  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Scored last 7 at home.
  • 2/2 defeats v Hibs this season and not beaten any top 5 side.

Hibernian - 4th

  • Clearly have the measure of Dundee United.
  • And are unbeaten away outside of the top 5.
  • Only 1 win in 6 but see the above context!

Conclusions

  • Be ever mindful of an over reaction defensively from a side on the back of a 5 goal mauling (Dundee United). The head to heads are emphatic. 2 wins out of 2 for Hibs. Any reason to see a change today? Dundee United have scored last 7 at home so Hibs may need 2 goals here.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Dundee Utd home matches. Hibernian have scored first in 10/15 away matches.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v St Johnstone - 2.60 St Johnstone

  • Leave this and the match below to the in-play stats.
  • 1st goal: Kilmarnock have scored first in 14/18 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Johnstone have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Kilmarnock have won 12/17 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Livingston v Aberdeen - 2.70 Aberdeen

  • Aberdeen were priced at these odds mid week and the result was 0-0.
  • Livingston were superb mid week, note their 2 goals came 85th+ minute so this match may be worth a late interest.
  • The solid recent form is with Livingston and it is no coincidence that their new manager has been in charge in the last 9 matches. Win, Win, Draw, Win at home under new manager. A couple of 0-0's at halftime score 2 goals 2nd half. 7 draws in 9 matches for Livingston under their new manager at halftime, and only 2 at fulltime. All wins bar draws v Celtic.
  • 1st half outcome: Livingston have drawn the first half in 11/18 home matches as have Aberdeen in 10/16 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Aberdeen away matches against top-half teams.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Eibar v Sevilla - 2.10 Sevilla

Eibar - 15th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 3 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 4 at fulltime.
  • 0-1 win v Sevilla earlier this season.
  • Only 1 home win v 7th.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sevilla - 4th

  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches came v the Madrid sides.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 3 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 4 away wins v 11th and lower.
  • 64% of goals scored and 67% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 wins in 13 plays only 2 losses in 13. We'd have to look to Sevilla here. They tend to do their scoring 2nd half and will be seeking revenge on the 1-0 Eibar win last head to head. Eibar do score and concede so Sevilla had better target 2 goals which they have done in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 1st goal: Eibar have conceded first in 10/14 home matches against top-six teams while Sevilla have won 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Sevilla have won the first half in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

15:15 - Real Madrid v Levante - 1.33 Real Madrid

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.
  • 10/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Levante - 12th

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • Not played top 2 away but lost away to 3rd, 4th and 5th.

Conclusions

  • Levante are in great nick, only losing recently to Barcelona and Levante.
  • Real Madrid may need 2 goals again given both teams have scored in Levante's last 7 matches.
  • Don't expect a full time 0-0.
  • Match outcome: Real Madrid have won 13/15 home matches while Levante have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. Real Madrid have won by two or more goals in 12/19 home matches against middle-third teams.

17:30 - Valencia v Elche - 1.65 Valencia

Valencia - 14th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw at home latest.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower, 5 score draws and a win, both teams scoring.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

Elche - 19th

  • No win in 13 and in 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 and last 3 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 1.65 favourite with only 4 wins. YIKES!!! Only 3 clean sheets too. Elche have no win in 13 so that may be a reason for these optimistic Valencia odds. But intriguingly, Elche are unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • A match to watch the in-play stats. I need to see Valencia justify the odds.
  • 1st goal: Valencia have scored first in 10/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Elche have conceded first in 4/8 away matches. Valencia have had W/W double results in 12/18 home matches against bottom-six teams.

20:00 - Villarreal v Real Sociedad - 2.45 Villareal

Villareal - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats came away v Barcelona and Sevilla.
  • A couple of draws and a 0-0 last match v Huesca. Another newly promoted side Villareal struggled to score against.
  • 4 draws and a win last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side but 6 draws.
  • 3 score draws at home v the top 9.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches v the top 15.
  • 7 goals scored at home 61st-75th minute.

Real Sociedad - 6th

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches 2 goals at least conceded in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3 losses and a win last 4 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side.
  • 6/9 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Villareal are unbeaten at home and likely to remain so.
  • 0-0 last match but I feel they'll score again as Sociedad have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 matches. They are yet to beat the top 5 too. They may score but not win.
  • Watch out for Villareal scoring 61st-75th minute if a draw, losing, or not scoring up to that time.
  • Match outcome: Villarreal have drawn 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while Real Sociedad have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. Real Sociedad have scored first in 7/10 away matches.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim - 1.20 Bayern

Bayern - 1st

  • Only 2 defeats came away. One was v Hoffenheim.
  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored all matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match at home.
  • 20/30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim - 11th

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches, keeping 3 clean sheets. The Hoff have obviously had a bang on the head.
  • 2 wins in 3 matches away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 2 away. Lost v 3rd, 4th and 6th.

Conclusions

  • Revenge is on the cards for Bayern today. They are unbeaten at home, scoring 2+ goals. But the Hoff are on a 3 match clean sheet streak. Surely that cannot continue.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 8/12 Bayern home matches and +2.5 goals in 14/19 Hoffenheim away matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/13 Hoffenheim away matches against top-six teams.

14:30 - Dortmund v Augsburg - 1.25 Dortmund

Dortmund - 7th

  • A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • Scored in their last 16 and last 8 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not played 11th-15th at home.
  • 2-0 loss v Augsburg earlier this season.
  • 13/17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Augsburg - 12th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 away matches.
  • 3 losses away v 3rd, 11th and 13th away.
  • 75% of goals scored and conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is emphatic. Dortmund will get their revenge today. A poor season for them, Dortmund are conceding and scoring so note that today.
  • Very strong 2nd half scoring record for Dortmund - they have obliged in the past if kept quiet first half.
  • 1st half outcome: B. Dortmund have won the first half in 15/19 home matches against middle-third teams while Augsburg have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against top-half teams. Augsburg have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top-half teams.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin - 1.75 Frankfurt

Frankfurt - 6th

  • Only 2 defeats v Bayern and Wolfsburg.
  • 5 wins and a 2-2 last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 at home 2+ goals scored last 7 matches.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.

Hertha Berlin - 14th

  • 3 losses and a 0-0 last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten top 9 away.
  • Vast majority of goals came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would have expected Frank to have been shorter odds given their recent 2+ goal winning record. They do concede hence the need for 2 goals to ensure the win.
  • Hertha yet to beat top 9 away.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 E. Frankfurt home matches against bottom-six teams and in 12/17 Hertha Berlin away matches. Hertha Berlin have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.

14:30 - Union Berlin v M'gladbach - 2.25 Mgladbach

Union Berlin - 8th

  • Only 4 defeats. 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Unbeaten in 8 at home. scored last 9 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Mgladbach - 5th

  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5.
  • 3 score draws in 4 away.
  • Failed to score only first match.
  • Not beaten top 10 away despite scoring 3-3-0-2-2 goals!!

Conclusions

  • We could see a score draw at some point in this match if these 2 sides' patterns continue. Don't be shy in laying Mgladbach if they lead 0-2 or 0-3! How many times have they scored this amount and not won v the top 10?
  • Match outcome: Union Berlin have won 5/9 home matches against top-six teams while B. M'gladbach have had D/L double results in 6/9 away matches against top-half teams. Union Berlin have scored first in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Schalke - 1.91 Werder Bremen

  • Only 2 defeats in 6 matches sees Werder winning 3 matches recently. They have even managed to score 2+ goals in 2 of their last 3 matches. A rarity indeed.
  • They play a Schalke with just one win all season v Hoffenheim.
  • It is quite clear that Werder do their winning v 12th and lower, and they meet 18th today so if ever they were to record another win, it will be against 20th in the league.
  • Match outcome: W. Bremen have won 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Schalke 04 have lost by two or more goals in 7/10 away matches. Schalke 04 have lost 8/10 away matches.

17:30 - Leipzig v Leverkusen - 1.85 leipzig

  • Top 3 clash. These have been really tough to read.
  • Only 1 win in 4 for Leipzig. Only 1 win in 6 for Leverkusen.
  • I will leave this to the in-play stats.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 RB Leipzig home matches and in 14/16 Leverkusen away matches against top-six teams. Leverkusen have scored first in 13/19 away matches.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Bologna v AC Milan - 1.80 AC Milan

Bologna - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches came last home match.
  • No defeat in 3 at home.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost 2-0 to Milan earlier this season.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side.
  • 11/17 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

AC Milan - 1st

  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten away from home.
  • Scored in their last 9 away 2+ goals.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 6/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Ibrahimovic is back for AC Milan and should help them continue their 2 goal scoring record. AC Milan have been generally an excellent reliable trading side, even if 2-0 down.
  • 1st goal: Bologna have conceded first in 10/18 home matches while AC Milan have won 8/11 away matches against middle-third teams. Bologna have lost 6/10 home matches against top-six teams.

17:00 - Sampdoria v Juventus - 1.50 Juventus

Sampdoria - 10th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-0 loss to Juventus earlier this season.

Juventus - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats v Fiorentina (red card) and Inter Milan.
  • Lost their last match away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 11.
  • 7/10 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • The reason Juventus are 5th is because of their poor away form. So although losing 1 away, they have drawn a few v the top 11.
  • This could be more competitive than the odds suggest.
  • If Juve are to concede it is to be first half too away from home but they did keep a clean sheet last time these 2 met.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 15/16 Sampdoria home matches and in 14/20 Juventus away matches. Juventus have scored first in 7/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

19:45 - Inter Milan v Benevento - 1.22 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 2nd

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • Scored last 9 at home.
  • 2-5 win last head to head.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 12th and lower.
  • 18/25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Benevento - 11th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see the newly promoted side getting the better of Inter Milan here. Inter should manage their 2+ goals.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/17 Inter Milan home matches and in 5/9 Benevento away matches. Benevento have conceded first in 5/9 away matches.