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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 30, 2017

So far, so good as far as avoiding the nephews and nieces today so I will provisionally book in a live chat to cover Italian Seria A at 14:00 to the end of English Football at 16:45. Twitter only @drtclub.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Atalanta v Cagliari - 1.49 Atalanta

  • Cagliari win and Atalanta win in the last 2 head to heads.

Atalanta (7th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower.

Cagliari (16th)

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 win v 15th and higher.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away from home.

Conclusions

  • The odds look right here. If Cagliari are having trouble winning v 15th and higher, and failing to score that 2nd goal, lay them if the score first.
  • On the form we see, Atalanta will not lose.

14:00 - Benevento v Chievo - 2.3 Chievo

Benevento (20th)

  • All defeats bar a 2-2 this season.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least at home in the last 7 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 0-1, 1-2, 1-2 at home v 12th and lower.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Chievo (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 defeat away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It looks as if there is more heartache for Benevento today.
  • I think it will be a tight match if Benevento continue their home scorelines v 12th and lower.
  • Chievo may concede but not lose. 1-2 looks a likeliest winning scoreline for Chievo.

14:00 - Bologna v Udinese - 2.38 Bologna

  • Both teams have shared the last 4 head to head wins.

Bologna (12th)

  • Only 3 wins in 10 matches required 3 goals scored in each, 2 were 3-2 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets and failed to score in only 4 matches - tends to lend itself to Both teams to score.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v teams above them in the league.

Udinese (9th)

  • No draws this season. 4 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive away wins. An eye-catching 1-3 win away v Inter Milan.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Both teams have scored in the 4 away matches v top 11 teams and that Inter win was the only win v top 11.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half. 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • On form, Udinese may concede first half but not lose.
  • It seems as if 2-1/1-2 correct scores could work today. Bologna stats lend themselves to both teams scoring.
  • Udinese tend to score and concede v top 11.
  • If Bologna score first, I would have to lay them on form.

14:00 - Roma v Sassuolo - 1.33 Roma

  • 2 consecutive 3-1 Roma wins in head to heads.

Roma (4th)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 6 wins in 7 at home.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches.
  • All defeats have come v top 3 only.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 8/9 at home.

Sassuolo (14th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • No away draw.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • 9 losses and 2 1-0 wins home and away v 12th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo have 3 consecutive wins, 2 1-0's but simply tend to lose v teams 12th and high, and that is home and away.
  • Roma have only lost to the top 3 so strictly should not be fearing Sassuolo.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Spal - 1.75 Sampdoria

Sampdoria (6th)

  • 4 defeats and a 2-2 in the last 5 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets only.
  • No draw in 8 at home. 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.
  • 13 of 20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

SPAL (17th)

  • Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 aways.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten any top 13 team away.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams are highly likely to score. SPAL though have not beaten any top 13 team away so if SPAL score, then they are unlikely to win 0-1. They have scored 2 goals only once away.

14:00 - Torino v Genoa - 1.93 Torino

  • The home team has tended to go unbeaten in head to heads.

Torino (10th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only lost 2 matches v top 4 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league, albeit 6 draws and 3 wins.
  • Scored 3-2-2-2-2-1 goals v 14th and lower.

Genoa (15th)

  • Only 4 wins but 3 of those wins came within the last 6 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 14 team home or away, 2 1-0's and 3 0-0's v top 14 away.

Conclusions

  • On form Genoa do not seem to have the ammunition to outscore Torino. 1-0's or 0-0's it seems away v top 14 teams.
  • Torino have recently scored 2/3 goals v 14th and lower so I would lay Genoa if genoa scored first.

17:00 - Inter v Lazio - 2.16 Inter

  • There is a hint, as you will read, that Inter are having the colley wobbles.
  • Inter won the last 2 Seria A head to heads.

Inter (3rd)

  • A draw and 2 losses now. The only 2 losses this season.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not met the top 5 at home, beat 6th, 7th and 8th at home.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lazio (5th)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Failed to score only first match of the season.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 9 of last 11 matches saw both teams score.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 1-2 win and 2-1 loss away v top 4 teams.
  • In 5 of 6 matches v top 13 away Lazio has seen 5 2-1 scorelines.

Conclusions

  • Slightly clouded by the fact Inter are yet to meet the top 5 at home. They did beat 6th, 7th and 8th at home.
  • Inter have lost 2 consecutive matches now and are out of form.
  • I would look to a 2-1/1-2 correct score here and trade out if this match is 1-1. It just keeps occuring in Lazio away matches.

19:45 - Verona v Juventus - 1.27 Juventus

Verona (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 10 team home or away.
  • 1-1-0-0-0 scored at home v top 8 teams.

Juventus (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 4 wins in 5 away matches. The loss was 3-2.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All wins v 8th and lower.
  • Scored 2 goals + away in all bar 1 match.

Conclusions

  • A team with only 3 wins is highly unlikely to win.
  • Juventus should be scoring 2 goals at least today and that should be enough. Verona have scored 1-1-0-0-0 at home v top 8.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Juve are highly likely to lead at halftime.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Bournemouth v Everton - 2.5 Bournemouth

  • Everton won the last 2 head to heads but Bournemouth won the last home head to head.

Bournemouth (18th)

  • No win in 8 matches. Only 4 wins all season.
  • 4-4-3 goals conceded last 3 matches.
  • All wins have come v 11th and lower.

Everton (9th)

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's. Strong  defence.
  • Only 1 away win but do put into the context of a new manager now.

Conclusions

  • I am with Everton here. Far better under a new manager.
  • I would lay any late 0-0. 0-0 sequences do end quickly.
  • Bournemouth conceded 11 goals last 3 matches and if only half as generous today, will pay the price.

15:00 - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.23 Chelsea

  • 4-2-4 goals scored by Chelsea in recent head to heads.

Chelsea (3rd)

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All home wins v 9th and lower.

Stoke City (13th)

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 4 0-0's at halftime.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 4 losses and a 2-2 home and away v top 5.
  • 4/4 defeats away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Stoke are struggling v the top 9 away and top 5 home and away. Should that continue, then Stoke will not win today.
  • They have to break a 6 match winning sequence for Chelsea at home.
  • We may yet see a 0-0 at halftime but do expect goals 2nd half, as happened with Chelsea's mid week match.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Burnley - 2.44 Huddersfield

Huddersfield (11th)

  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • A win and 2 score draws last 3 matches.
  • Last 3 teams to beat Huddersfield at home were Tottenham, Man City and Chelsea.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • All home defeats so far only v the top 5.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Burnley (7th)

  • No win in 3.
  • No win in 3 away.
  • Only away losses v 1st and 8th.
  • In matches with teams 9th to 16th inclusive, home and away, Burnley have had 6 1-0 wins and a 0-0. Coincidence or deliberate tactic v mid table teams?
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • This is an interesting match and a tough one in which to pick sides. All defeats for Huddersfield have come v the top 5. But Burnley have an amazing 6 1-0 wins and 2 0-0's v teams positioned 9th to 16th in the league.
  • What is it to be? A Burnley smash and grab or 0-0? Or will Huddersfield continue to have as their foundation this season, their home form?
  • I would tentatively lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market only based on the fact that if these 2 score it is most likely to be first half.

15:00 - Liverpool v Leicester - 1.37 Liverpool

  • Liverpool tend to win home head to heads.

Liverpool (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 4 draws and a win at home v top 9.
  • 7 clean sheets this season at home but conceded in 3/5 v top 9.

Leicester City (8th)

  • No win in 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 4 defeats and a 2-2 home and away v top 4 teams.
  • Losses away v 2nd, 6th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool are still defensively strong at home, and have yet to concede that 2nd goal. They have conceded though v top 9 teams and it would not surprise were Leicester to score today.
  • If Leicester score I would still expect Liverpool not to lose (a few 1-1's at home v top teams).

15:00 - Newcastle v Brighton - 2.1 Newcastle

Newcastle (15th)

  • 9 defeats in 11 matches but still no panic at St James Park.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats saw 3 0-1 scorelines. A tactic from Newcastle? Try for a clean sheet win but do not legislate for a goal conceded?
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • All defeats bar a 1-1 home and away v top 12 teams.

Brighton (12th)

  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats to nil, 3 consecutive 2-0's.
  • Failed to score away from home v teams above them in the league.
  • Only lost 1 match home and away v teams 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 9 defeats in 11 plays failed to score in 6/8 matches.
  • This is a match in which both sides will be targeting 3 points. It is tough to read. Brighton, note, tend to play better v teams below them in the league.

15:00 - Watford v Swansea - 1.75 Watford

Watford (10th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Suddenly returned to scoring their 2 goals in that home win v Leicester.
  • That was the first time in 5 matches which suggests unreliability in reading Watford.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 goals scored in every match v 17th and lower.
  • Conceded 13 goals at home first half.

Swansea (20th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away (1-2 loss v Watford earlier this season).
  • 10 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Watford are unreliable for me. Suddenly back to scoring 2 goals after 5 matches without that 2nd goal. And beating good yardstick Leicester too.
  • It does signal Watford should cope with Swansea. Swansea are conceding 2 goals regularly away. Watford have scored 2 goals regularly v 17th and lower.
  • Lay Swansea if Swansea scores first but it entails trusting Watford!

17:30 - Man Utd v Southampton - 1.41 Man Utd

  • Mid week saw meddling Mourinho making changes in expectation of a win. IT did not work.
  • Will the team dynamic be affected again in this busy period?
  • 0-0 and 0-1 Man Utd in the last 2 head to heads.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws. I would lay the next 2-2.
  • Only home loss v Man City.
  • Scored in their last 10 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 4-4-4-1-2-4 goals scored home and away v 15th and lower.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Southampton (14th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • All defeats away v top 5.
  • 5 of 7 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Man Utd are vulnerable this Xmas period. 2 consecutive 2-2's suggests Mourinho's changing of the team (Necessary changing of the team) is messing the flow.
  • They meet a Southampton team losing v all top 5 teams this season away from home, and conceding in their last 11 matches. Not only that, they have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches so are layable if scoring 1 or even 2 goals (see Burnley).
  • At their best United tend to score 4 goals v teams around Saints' position in the league.
  • Should 2-2 show up, I would lay it late on.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Celtic v Rangers - 1.39 Celtic

  • Rangers are slowing getting back to parity with Celtic. We have seen a 3rd place, now a 2nd place but still they are not quite there.
  • As with all major derbies I tend to leave it to run its course. Here I would favour Celtic still, particularly at home.
  • I am writing this prior to the 27th December results. Rangers were on a 2 match losing run and have had 5 2-1 results in 7 matches, 2 were defeats and 2 wins away.
  • Celtic ended their unbeaten run v Hearts but at home remain unbeaten.
  • I do expect Celtic not to lose today and would take on any Rangers lead.

15:00 - Aberdeen v Hearts - 1.61 Aberdeen

  • 3 Aberdeen wins and a 0-0 last head to heads.

Aberdeen (2nd)

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • 3 defeats in 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v top 4.

Hearts (5th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Hearts recent form has been strong because it is largely at home.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Strictly on form Hearts should struggle v top 4.

15:00 - Hibernian v Kilmarnock - 1.69 Hibs

  • 0-2 Kilmarnock and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Hibs (4th)

  • Match researched before 27th December result known.
  • 4 2-1's and a 2-2 last 5 at home.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 win v top 9 at home.
  • Did beat Kilmarnock away from home earlier in the season.

Kilmarnock (6th)

  • Match researched prior to 27th December result.
  • Unbeaten away v top 7 saw both teams score. 3 1-1 draws away v top 3.
  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I would give Kilmarnock a chance as they are unbeaten away v top 7. I would lay Hibs if Hibs scored first.
  • The market likes Hibs, maybe because they beat Kilmarnock easily at Kilmarnock.

15:00 - Motherwell v Hamilton - 2.1 Motherwell

  • Motherwell are unbeaten in the last 7 head to heads.

Motherwell (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches was an impressive away win v top 3 team Aberdeen.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Wins at home v 5th, 7th, 11th, 12th, draw v 10th.......and playing 9th today.
  • Beat Hamilton 1-2 already this season, at Hamilton.

Hamilton (9th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Apart from inevitable (it seems) losses away v 1st and 2nd, Hamilton have only 1 defeat away v top 10 teams 2-3-1-1-2-3 scored too.

Conclusions

  • Watch out for a 0-0 at halftime. Lots in Motherwell home matches.
  • Hamilton, note, have only 3 clean sheets. I think they will concede today. This is a match where I would take a chance and back 2-2 pre match in the hope that Hamilton continue their impressive away goalscoring v top 10 teams and Motherwell continue their solid form at home v top 10.

15:00 - Partick v Ross Co - 2.4 Partick

  • Partick and St Johnstone matches have been left to the end. The odds and indeed the league  suggests we may see little in the way of trading angles. We shall see.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads.
  • 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 at Partick in head to heads.

Partick (12th)

  • Struggles this season. Wins at home came v 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th and those were the only wins this season so it tells us Partick are more likely to win at home.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches came in the last 2 home matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-1 with Ross County earlier in the season.

Ross Co (11th)

  • No win in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Beat 10th away 1-2 - 2-0-2-2 goals scored away v teams 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both of these teams see their sights lowered and that suggests they will be eyeing a positive result.
  • With both sides keeping only 3 clean sheets, I would back 2-1/1-2 correct scores here today. Partick tend to win v 6th and lower, Ross Co tend to score 2 goals v 7th and lower away.
  • I tend to cash out if lucky enough to see a 1-1, as that will shorten the odds of both 2-1 and 1-2.

15:00 - St Johnstone v Dundee - 2.24 St Johnstone

  • The home side tends to win recent head to heads.

St Johnstone (6th)

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 home matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.

Dundee (10th)

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 12 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 1-1 draws away v 7th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form the home side is favoured. I would look to lay Dundee if Dundee scored first .Despite St Johnstone being in poor scoring form at home, they scored 4-2-0-1 v teams 8th and lower.