How do you get 8/1 about a 1/25 shot? Easy. Back any other away score when 0-0 at halftime in the Malta v England match. I wrote a Facebook post about tackling these shorties. Do not dismiss these 1.04 shots. See Croatia below. It was a good evening of footy. It all really came at the end yesterday.
The tennis I will follow today at 16:00. See you on Twitter @drtclub.
17:00 - Albania v Liechtenstein - 1.12 Albania
- 3rd in Group G behind Italy and Spain, Albania could go through as lucky losers?
- No draw yet this campaign for Albania who beat Liechtenstein 2-0 last time they met.
- Lichtenstein have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches this campaign. Possible correct score? 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 Albania?
17:00 - Finland v Iceland - 2.04 Iceland
- Group I and it is Iceland with an outstanding chance of qualifying for the World Cup. As long as they keep Kerry Katona at home, then they will be very welcome.
- Finland on 1 point are expected whipping boys along with Kosovo.
- Finland were competitive v Iceland with a 3-2 loss care of 2 90th minute Icelandic goals so really close to a win.
- As things stand, it is a draw v Kosovo and all defeats for Finland.
- 0-1-0-1 scored by Finland at home this campaign.
- Iceland have been excellent.4 wins and a loss to Croatia last 5 matches, saw 3-2-0-2-1 goals scored. Consistent stuff
- Not so hot away from home Iceland did win their last away match 1-2 v Kosovo.
- That is the reason behind Iceland NOT being ultra strong favourites today given Finland's woeful record.
- I would give Finland a shout here but note that Iceland should be able to reply if Finland score first or lead. Remember those 2 90 minute goals in their last head to head.
17:00 - Georgia v Rep of Ireland - 1.86 Ireland
- Ireland are 4 points ahead Wales and Russia in Group D and very well placed to qualify.
- Georgia will not be going anywhere and this really should a match Ireland will have pencilled in for 3 points.
- Georgia has scored and conceded in 5 of its last 6 World Cup qualifiers without winning a match. Score draws in 3 of their last 4 matches and a 1-0 win for Ireland over them is the reason that Ireland are tentative 1.86 odds today.
- If Georgia continue this pattern, then lay them if they score first.
- This match could follow though the pattern of the first match. A 0-0 at halftime then a longing for an Ireland goal at some point in the 2nd half.
17:00 - Serbia v Moldova - 1.14 Serbia
- Serbia are unbeaten and Moldova are yet to win.
- 0-3 Serbia the last time these 2 teams met and that was without home advantage.
- I can see Serbia scored 2-4 goals bare minimum today. Moldova failed to score v Wales and Austria.
19:45 - Croatia v Kosovo - 1.04 Croatia
- If Croatia can win 0-6 away from home, then Lord Knows what the scoreline will be at home. There is always a risk that Croatia might field some peripheral players.
- With Iceland and Turkey breathing down their necks in Group I, I think this will be the first team.
- 5-0, 8-0, 10-0 possible correct score wins to nil for a fun play for me.
19:45 - Israel v FYR Macedonia - 1.63 Israel
- Israel are in a battle with Albania for a likely 3rd place in Group G.
- No draw yet for Israel who have only been beaten by the top 3.
- They are clearly limited, as advertised by 2-1 wins v FYR and Liechtenstein.
- I would expect an Israeli win with home advantage. Macedonia, note, have scored in 4 defeats.
- Watch out for a Macedonia goal but do expect, if Macedonia score first, for Israel to reply and possibly push on.
19:45 - Spain v Italy - 1.86 Spain
- Identical results for both sides. 5 wins and a 1-1 draw......v Italy for Spain and v Spain for Italy.
- Impossible to tell the outcome of this match.
- Follow via the inplay stats.
19:45 - Ukraine v Turkey - 2.3 Ukraine
- Identical record for both sides. 2 draws, a loss and 3 wins.
- Ukraine look poor. Wins v Kosovo and Finland only is to be expected.
- Turkey are equally as poor. Their wins v Kosovo twice and Finland.
- Not a match I can take a side on as both teams looks equally as bad as each other. 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
19:45 - Wales v Austria - 2.3 Wales
- A win and 5 draws for Wales this campaign, 4 of the draw were score draws.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws at home for Wales.
- A 2-2 draw with Wales and the odds are the same as Ukraine v Turkey with the same scoreline.
- Austria have scored and conceded in their last 3 aways.
- LIke Ukraine v Turkey, this is tough to call.
Adrian Mannarino v Dominic Thiem - 1.33 Thiem
- 51st v 9th.
- 0-5 head to heads for Thiem.
- The last Thiem win was in 2 tie breaker sets.
- Mannarino was expected to beat Fratangelo. Ditto, Thiem had an easy round v Taylor Fritz.
- The 7-6 7-6 Thiem win was in Cincinnati.
- I suspect that Thiem's odds could rise in play if Mannarino can get him to a tie breaker.
Karolina Pliskova v Shuai Zhang - 1.2 Pliskova
- 3rd v 32nd in the rankings.
- Pliskova leads 4-0 in head to heads.
- Pliskova was superb last round, losing the first set and winning the next 2. It was a great trading game.
- 2 recent players to beat her on hard? Wozniacki and Muguruza.
- Look out for more Pliskova problems. She looks really reliable.
Philipp Kohlschreiber v John Millman - 1.4 Philipp
- 31st v 120th in the rankings.
- Millman beat Kyrgios. Not much to get out of that as Kyrgios was playing wearing a clown suit.
- Kohlschreiber had a walkover last match so little to gain.
- Millman I think will give Kohlschreiber a game today. Millman lost to 50th ranked Harrison in Atlanta but the first 2 sets were tie breakers.
- I would like to take Millman on should he win the first set.
Lucie Safarova v Kurumi Nara - 1.3 Lucie
- 28th v 95th.
- 2 3 setters so far in the US Open for Safarova. It may suggest the 1.3 odds will not be the shortest price during the match if this 3 set pattern continues.
- Nara's beating of Kuznetsova is very eyecatching but we all know the struggles Kuznetsova had in her first round, a hint that all was not quite right with World Number 9.
- I will hope for a 3 setter which means laying the first set winner.
Viktor Troicki v Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.43 Dolgopolov
- Dolgo - hugely talented but hugely inconsistent and hugely unpredictable. A trader's nightmare really.
- 39th v 82nd.
- Dolgo won in 2 sets in Indian Wells earlier this year.
- 5 setter and 4 setter so far for Dolgo and a huge scalp in Tomas Berdych who usually goes deep in Grand Slams.
- Troicki was coming of a run of 6 consecutive losses into this US Open.
- I would suggest that this match could go all the way. This tells us to lay any 2-0/0-2 leader and also any 2-1/1-2 leader.
Jennifer Brady v Monica Niculescu - 1.83 Jennifer
- 76th v 47th.
- Brady is a USA player so she may play 'above' her ranking.
- The market suggests a 3 setter in store.
- In 6 of Brady's last 9 matches, she has had a 3 setter. I would be keener to lay Monica as first set winner given Brady has a habit of 3 setters and is American so will be galvanised by home support.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.89 Radwanska
- The Aggy and Coco show. Coco is likely to be very competitive. Another American in the US Open.
- Like the match above, the market anticipates a 3 setter which suggests laying the first set winner.
- 5th v 23rd so Coco is not some outlandishly ranked outsider.
- This year, in hard court warm ups in Canada, Aggy won in 2 straight sets. A sign of things to come?
- The recent head to head muddies the waters. I would have this as a tight 3 setter but what to make of Aggy 2-0 in recent head to head?
Roberto Bautista Agut v Juan Martin Del Potro - 1.81 Agut
- 18th v 33rd. I was keen to take on Del Boy given his injuries of the past. Today he will get a work out from Agut.
- Del Boy won in the Olympics in 2016 in 2 straight sets.
- Quarters in Canada, and tournament winner in Winston Salem, Agut is in really good nick on hard court.
- Del Boy lost to Dimitrov in Cincinnati, a Dimitrov already out of the US Open so that form is not franked.
- The market is right giving a slight nod towards Agut. 3 tie breakers for Del Boy in 2 matches suggests we might see same today.
- I would lay Any Del Boy 1-0 or 2-0 set leads.
Kaia Kanepi v Naomi Osaka - 1.54 Osaka
- 513th v 46th so why is Osaka not shorter in the market?
- 25K and 15K events for Kanepi are the norm now.
- She has already played 5 matches to get here in the US Open so battle hardened. Eye catching wins v Hseih and Schiavone.
- No strong angles here. I feel Osaka should not be losing 2-0 today so lay Kanepi if kanepi wins the first set.
Jelena Ostapenko v Daria Kasatkina - 1.74 Jelena
- 50th v 29th.
- Daria won the final in Charleston in 2017 on clay.
- Beating 44th ranked McHale (USA) last round was eyecatching for Daria.
- I remember Ostapenko from her run to the quarters in Wimbledon.On that basis, as I did in Daria's last match, I would lay Daria if Daria wins the first set.
Damir Dzumhur v Andrey Rublev - 1.86 Rublev
- 90th v 117th.
- Rublev's win over Dimitrov is one of the shocks so far in the US Open. It was a 3 set win too.
- Damir was a finalist in Winston Salem.
- This is too tight to call. A match where I could argue for either player. Does that suggest 4 or 5 setter?
David Goffin v Gael Monfils - 1.71 Gael
- This should be a cracker. I know that the Goff tends to struggle and then comeback so I'd expect his odds to rise above pre match levels and possibly drop after a comeback.
- 10th v 17th.
- We have tended to see 3 setters (first to 2 sets) when these 2 meet with the Goff winning the last one.
- Both players are coming off the back of epic 5 setters. You tweeters know all about the Goff. We retained faith in him after losing the first set and he obliged.
- I have no ultra strong angles, suffice to say I think both players odds will rise at some point.
- 2 well-matched players with 2 5 setters last match. Hope for more of the same today?
Rafael Nadal v Leonardo Mayer - 1.1 Nadal
- 5th v 131st.
- 2 4 setters now for Mayer in the main draw at the US Open.
- Rafa lost the first set v Daniel and won the next 3. Do not expect a Mayer 3-0 if Mayer wins the first set!
- Rafa should win 3-0 today.
Elina Svitolina v Shelby Rogers - 1.16 Elina
- 13th v 48th.
- 3 setter to Elina when these 2 met in Brisbane earlier this year.
- We profited by backing Daria Gavrilova after she lost the first set to Shelby Rogers but obviously Shelby went through and that , to me, is a solid performance against a top 20 player.
- It may be the US influence for American Shelby and that is something Elina must cater for.
- Elina is in fine hard court fettle. A winner of the Canadian masters she beat a who's who or women's tennis, in Venus, Muguruza, Halep and Wozza.
- This might be a match in which to lay Elina if Elina wins the first set only because a) we will get ultra short odds about what is a very strong favourite and b) Shelby could be galvanised by the US home support. Note the last head to head too was a 3 setter on hard.