Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The last time there was a long weekend, I decided not to do a live chat as I assumed that a number of members will have other things planned. I am making that assumption today.

No live chat today. Only 3 replies received.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

This is a really tough day . I don't know that the research is of value in the Liverpool, Lyon, Fenerbahce, Benfica matches as we see both sides needing the win . This is "desperation stakes" part of the season for the bottom teams.

12:15 UK Wolves v Millwall - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 Wolves and 3-3 draw in the last 2 head to heads. Wolves were 0-3 up in that match!
  • this is 8th v 22nd in the Championship. Yet again , like Liverpool, Lyon, Fenerbahce, Benfica, we have a match in which it's critical for both sides to win. Wolves could go top 5 with a win, such is the importance of this match. Millwall will remain 3rd bottom with a win today
  • This is the LAST match of the season, hence the Wolves odds. Millwall are down.
  • This is a pointless match to research. Form will be thrown out of the window. Here we have a team who could go into the play-offs today, playing a team who are relegated.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • a case of following the market or not. Wolves MUST MUST MUST win today. Is this enough to favour them against a Millwall side who are down already? Lay Millwall if they score first therefore.

12:15 UK Brentford v Wigan - 1.36 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 7th v 23rd in the Championship.
  • Like Wolves, Brentford MUST MUST MUST win in order to have a chance of the play-offs.
  • Wigan are down. Like Millwall, a win will keep Wigan relegated.
  • 3 consecutive home 2-2 draws for Brentford simply must end today . Their ability to  score 2 though is the positive against a Wigan who have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches. Wigan have lost only 2 of their last 7 away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I was getting drawn in here to research when this is, like Wolves, a one-off match. Brentford must win. Wigan win and they are still down.
  • So, decide to favour Brentford here and have this as your trading angle today.

12:15 UK Derby v Reading - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • Reading won in the FA Cup in February, but Derby won away 0-3 v October 2014
  • Reading are safe this season and will not benefit from a win.
  • Derby, are in the play-off places on 77 points. If Brentford and Wolves win, and Derby draw, they might still get a play-off place on goal difference. A win, of course, will nail a play-off place.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It doesn't matter what Wolves and Brentford do. I think Derby could stay in the play-offs with a draw because of the goal difference. A win ASSURES them of a play-off place.

12:15 UK Watford v Sheff Wed - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive convincing wins for Watford in head to heads.
  • Watford are in the Premiership, much to the delight of Elton John and his husband David Furniture-Polish
  • This is therefore, much like NEC Nijmegen, a celebratory match for Watford.
  • Sheffield Wednesday are happily ensconsed in mid table mediocrity.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A dangerous match to have much faith in Watford winning. They don't need to win. If you think that they will be as professional as NEC Nijmegen and win their last home match of the season infront of home support, against a side whose season is unaffected by a loss, then by all means favour Watford. REmember they scored 3 and 4 already against this side in 2014 so obviously have the edge over them.

The Scottish Championship

This league is pretty much over. Hearts are the champions. Hibs and Rangers are in 2nd and 3rd and I suppose 2nd is up for grabs, but there is nothing to gain for 2nd place - no automatic promotion for instance. So I will leave these Scottish Championship matches alone. Hearts v Rangers is the appetiser in this league and is likely to be a good match for the Hearts fans to goad their close Glaswegian friends. But as a trading medium, I will leave it alone in the time of the year where dead rubbers begin appearing more frequently. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:45 UK Leicester v Newcastle - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-0 to Newcastle and 1-0 to Leicester in the FA Cup in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 17th v 14th in the Premiership.
  • Leicester are 1 point from relegation and Newcastle are 5 points from relegation. Sunderland have a match in hand over these 2 and if winning their match, drag these 2 into the mire.
  • This therefore, for me, is a relegation six pointer. I think form goes out the window but I'll take a quick look at both teams.


  • 4 wins and a loss to Chelsea in their last 5 matches.
  • Leicester did score first v Chelsea in defeat.
  • Leicester are unbeaten at home v 15th and lower and play 14th at home.

Newcastle United

  • 7 match losing streak and 4 away
  • Have conceded in their last 7 overall and in their last 5 away
  • Failed to score in their last 4 away
  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches were v Hull and Aston Villa.
  • 3-2-1-2-3-3 conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Newcastle have only lost to Sunderland of teams 12th and lower. And the reason? Local Derby.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • How sad it is to see Newcastle limping at the end of this season. Leicester have the clear momentum here with their recent run of wins. Newcastle have lost their last 7 matches but strangely are unbeaten v 12th and lower, taking Sunderland out of the equation.
  • On form I'd be with Leicester today, but there is a limited argument for Newcastle.

14:30 UK Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund - 1.83 away

Standout Stats

  • Dortmund are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads, it was 2-2 last time out in the cup.
  • This is 7th v 8th in the Bundesliga.
  • I think 5th and 6th is important in Germany from a European competition perspective? That is the only real motivation these 2 have.


  • Only 4 wins in 13 matches.
  • No draw in 12 at home
  • Lost at home to Bayern and Mgladbach last 2 matches
  • Have beaten 5th and 6th at home
  • No 0-0 at home
  • Scored first in 11 of 15 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's in the last 14 matches at halftime


  • Beat 6th 2-3 but lost away to 9th-13th inclusive
  • Lost recently to Bayern and Mgladbach too - the only losses in 11 matches.
  • 3-3-3-1 scored in recent away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 4 matches remain this season and a top 6 spot is available (other results notwithstanding) but I cannot see any other motivational reason for getting involved here.
  • Based on stats, Hoff avoid the draw so lay any late draw.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score but do delay for a short while to get lower odds. It tends to come in with the Hoff.
  • I will back 2-2 pre match speculatively. It was 2-2 in the last head to head and Dortmund have had a couple of 2-3 results away from home recently.

14:30 UK Wolfsburg v Hannover 96 - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive Hannover wins ended with a Wolfs win in their last head to head
  • This is 2nd v 15th in the Bundesliga. Wolfs are 2nd on 61 points, Mgladbach are the nearest rival on 57 points. Hannover are 1 point above the relegation zone.


  • Only 5 losses all season
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 15 at home
  • All wins bar 3 draws at home
  • Unbeaten v 14th and lower home and away.
  • scored 2/3 goals at home v all bar 1 team 7th and lower
  • 67% over 2.5 goals at home
  • No 0-0
  • Scored first in 13 of 15 matches
  • 16 first half and 18 2nd half goals scored


  • No win in 14 and in 9 away
  • Conceded in those matches.
  • 4 draws away in those 9 winless away matches  were score draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 19 matches.
  • Have lost all matches v top 4 home and away
  • Failed to score away v top 5
  • Only 2 wins away
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • Conceded 14 goals in each half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Hannover have an interesting record in head to heads and will want a win today. This is a match for both teams to win. Wolfs on form are the better side.
  • Both teams could score today. If Hannover score first, lay them.
  • Wolfsburg are highly likely to score so take that into the match.

15:00 UK Swansea v Stoke - 2.3 home

Standout Stats

  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 matches. 2 score draws and a 2-1 Stoke win in recent head to heads.
  • That last match saw the first 2 goals scored as penalties.
  • This is 8th v 9th in the Premiership.
  • Swansea have not lost to any team below them at home and Stoke are just one place below them.
  • Stoke have no draw v teams above them  with 5 losses and 2 wins

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • For me this is a dead rubber with 4 matches remaining and does not interest me. Strictly on form, Swansea are favoured here as they are unbeaten v teams below them. A match I will leave alone.

15:00 UK Liverpool v QPR - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • Liverpool have won the last 3 head to heads. 0-3, 1-0, 2-3 last 3 matches.
  • This is 5th v 19th in the Premiership. 7 points shy of top 4 spot. QPR with a win reach 30 points and stay in the bottom 3 but will be nearer to 16th, 17th and 18th
  • 4 matches , that's 12 points only, remain this season .


  • Only 1 win in their last 5 was against Newcastle , a really poor side at the moment, so hardly form which jumps off the page.
  • Since 27th September though, only Chelsea and Man Utd have beaten Liverpool at home. That is more inspiring form!
  • The desperation of this part of the season is showcased well by a 1-0 loss to Hull last match and a 0-0 v West Brom. So today's match might not be as clear-cut.
  • Only 3 losses at home v 1st, 4th and 16th .
  • Against 15th and lower at home, only 1 win was v Burnley 2-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • Scored first in 13 of 17 home matches.


  • All defeats away to top 15 bar 1 match.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in defeat to top 12 away
  • An 88th minute Chelsea goal the only way Chelsea beat QPR recently. 2 draws on either side also back up an idea that Liverpool might not get it wholly their own way today.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches away
  • Have scored in their last 9 away matches.
  • All defeats bar a 2-2 draw v top 7 home and away this season.
  • 75% over 2.5 goals away
  • No 0-0 away
  • Conceded 12 goals in the last 1/4 hour of the 1st half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is a toughie. Liverpool are as reliable as the promises of a politician at election time. They have actually stumbled v 15th and lower at home, have only 1 win in their last 5 and only won 2-3 v QPR last match.
  • At home though Liverpool are excellent . Only Chelsea and United have beaten them since 27th September. QPR have a really dire record v top 12, conceding 2+ goals.
  • So what is it to be? Form wise, Liverpool should win as QPR simply lose to top 12 away conceding at least 2 goals.
  • Look though at Liverpool v 15th and lower. POOR. Look at Liverpool recently . POOR. Look at liverpool v West Brom and Hull, fellow strugglers. POOR. and this 1.33 is layable. Better yet lay Liverpool if the score first if you are taken more by the latter than the former argument.

15:00 UK Cordoba v Barcelona - 1.12 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 and 5-0 in the cup and 5-0 to Barcelona in the league in recent head to heads.
  • This is bottom v top.
  • Cordoba have failed to score in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
  • They have lost 13 of their last 15 matches and failed to score in their last 4 matches.
  • 7 consecutive losses at home.
  • 1-2 and 0-2 v top 3 at home .
  • All losses at home v top 8 .
  • Barcelona have beaten all sides 15th and lower scoring between 2-5 goals.5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Barcelona have led at halftime in their last 5 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Short and sweet. 1.09 for Barca at The question here is whether Barca can lead at halftime as far as a banker bet is concerned.
  • Barca should win to nil today which opens things up for a correct score punt. 0-3, 0-5 for me. Although I note Cordoba lost 0-2 and 1-2 v top 3 at home.
  • Barca are expected to score before halftime as 1.09 shots are. Do note that Real Madrid took until literally the last kick of the first half to score so this time of the season might see some Cordoba resistance?

16:00 UK Lyon v Evian - 1.28 home

Standout Stats

  • In 2014, Lyon have won 3-0 and 2-3 in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 18th in French Ligue 1. Lyon go top with a win, at least until Marseille play next.
  • Evian actually go out of the bottom 3 with a win.


  • Scored in their last 15 at home
  • Only 1 loss in 15 home matches.
  • 3-2-2-4 scored in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 losses at home . Did lose at home to bottom 0-1
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 16 first half and 21 2nd half goals scored at home
  • Scored first in 15 of 17 home matches.


  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 10 away matches
  • Only 1 loss though in their last 5 aways. 2 consecutive away score draws
  • Lost all away matches v top 10. Failed to score v top 5 away
  • No 0-0 away
  • Conceded 16 goals in each half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Like the Liverpool match, the opponent is in dire need of a win and may play beyond what the form says. This is the call we have to make today.
  • On the form, Lyon will likely win, scoring 2+ goals and score first.
  • Evian tend to lose away to top 10.
  • BUT with need being great, Evian could be as competitive as they have been in their last 5 aways, losing only 1 match.
  • What's it to be? Like Liverpool, Lyon are at home and 1.3 odds or shorter! Go with form and the market and ignore this part of the season?

16:30 UK Plzen v Slovacko - 1.24 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 away wins for Plzen and a 0-0 draw at home in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 9th in the Czech top league. Plzen are 3 points above 2nd. Slovacko could actually go top 5 with a win ( other results notwithstanding).


  • Only 3 losses and one came in their last match. Will they really lose a 2nd consecutive match?
  • 11 wins at home preceded that last home loss.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match and that came away in their 2nd last match.
  • Slovacko only lost 1-0 earlier in the season to Plzen
  • Plzen have scored in all home matches.


  • 2 consecutive away clean sheets
  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches was a 2-3 at home to 13th
  • Not beaten any top 6 side away .
  • Only 33% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A recent hiccup for Plzen, losing their amazing home winning run and also failing to score for the first time. This occured in their last 2 matches.
  • Can we trust them to bounce back from this hiccup against a side they only beat 1-0 earlier in the season.
  • Given Slovacko's form away to top 6, I will lay them if they score first.
  • Will Plzen really lose 2 2nd consecutive home match after winning the previous 11?

5pm - Fenerbahce v Balikesirspor  - 1.18 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-1 to Fenerbahce in the sole head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 18th in the Turkish Lig


  • A win takes Fenerbahce top by 2 points having played one more match than the top 2 after this match.
  • This match is therefore critical.
  • Only 4 losses all season.
  • 3 match home winning streak
  • Scored in their last 9 matches overall.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 7 home matches. 3 consecutive 1-0 home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Fenerbahce have scored 1-1-1-1-1-5-1-1 scored recently. The team they scored 5 against were 4th bottom.
  • Against 13th and lower at home, scored 3-2-2-3 and conceded in each match. Not played bottom 2 at home.


  • All losses away v top 10 bar a 2-2 draw away with first placed Besiktas.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches and conceded in their last 13 matches.
  • 3 score draws in their last 5 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 6 matches, 18 points left in the season so Balik are still alive but must win their next 3 matches.
  • The market tells us that Fenerbahce are likely to score 3/4 goals and possibly before halftime. But Fenerbahce have scored 1-1-1-1-1-5-1-1 recently. That is worrisome, but on a positive, 3 consecutive 1-0 home wins suggests a sturdy defence.
  • Balik are poor v top 10 away, and keep losing.
  • Like Liverpool and Lyon, Balik could offer resistance such is their need for points at this desperate part of the season.
  • Go with the market, or look for a surprise? Surprise - well Fener keep scoring only 1 goal. Balik have 3 score draws in their last 5 away matches.
  • Ideally, lay the 0-0 halftime score.

5pm - Atl Madrid v Ath Bilbao  - 1.43 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive wins for Madrid in head to heads.
  • The last 3 wins were away where both teams scored.
  • This is 3rd v 8th in La Liga. Ath Madrid are 7 points shy of 2nd placed.
  • Ath Bilbao's season is now fizzling out.

Ath Madrid

  • 3 match winning streak and 3 at home
  • No defeat in 11 matches and 9 at home
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
  • 8 wins in their last 9 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 6th was a 0-1
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all home matches v 7th and lower.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 25 first half and 17 2nd half goals scored at home with only 3 conceded first half.
  • Led at halftime in 15 of 17 home matches.

Ath Bilbao

  • No draw in 5 away matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 12 came away to 5th and 9th
  • Have failed to score away to all teams above them in the league, losing all bar a 0-0 with 4th
  • 24% over 2.5 goals away
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • If you can't score, you can't win! So it is with Ath Bilbao away to teams above them in the league. If this continues it must be advantage Ath Madrid scoring 2+ goals with regularity and a run of 6 wins in 7 , scoring 2-2-2-2-2-3-1.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's at halftime tempers my enthusiasm for a goal before halftime but Ath Madrid have led in 15 of 17 home matches at halftime and that is pretty emphatic. So you decide! Ath Bilbao have only 24% over 2.5 goals away so if they fail to score, 2-0 would appeal as a scoreline.

17:30 UK Man Utd v West Brom - 1.36 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-3 United and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads in 2014.United were lucky to get away with a draw .
  • This is 4th v 13th in the Premiership.Arsenal have a match in hand over United but if United win, they are temporarily 2nd.
  • Sunderland have 30 points in 3rd bottom. West Brom have 7 point difference from relegation zone.

Man Utd

  • 6 match winning streak at home.
  • No draw in 10 overall and 12 at home.
  • 2 consecutive losses came away
  • Failed to score in those 2 matches, which were away.
  • 3-3-2-3-3-4 scored at home recently.
  • Only 2 losses at home v 7th and 8th.
  • All wins at home v 9th and lower.
  • 76% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 24 first half and 16 2nd half goals scored at home

West Brom

  • Only 1 win in 11 away matches came in their last away match
  • Not won any v top 5 home or away
  • Only 1 win away v top 11 was a 0-1
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A great incentive for United to go 2nd and psychologically important as Arsenal have a match in hand.
  • United's home form is excellent and consistent. 6 match home winning streak and scoring 3 goals recently at home.
  • West Brom are not mathematically safe. 7 points above the drop zone and 12 points remaining. A win today could see them safe.
  • United have failed to score in 2 consecutive defeats away . Will they end this and return to the strong home form?
  • I expect a typical Pulis defense driven match today but they have not beaten any top 5 team this season and only beaten one of the top 11 away

6pm - Gil Vicente v Benfica  - 1.21 away

Standout Stats

  • 8 Benfica wins in the last 9 head to heads, but in the last head to head at Gil, 1-1 draw. Benfica's goal was a penalty
  • This is 17th v 1st. Yet another bottom v top match like Liverpool, Lyon, and Fenerbache's matches.
  • Benfica are 3 points clear of Porto at the moment. Gil Vicente are 2nd bottom and a win could give them a chance to get out of the bottom 2.

Gil Vicente

  • No win in 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came in their last match.
  • Only 4 clean sheets all season
  • Lost all at home v top 5.Only 2 wins at home v 7th and 18th.
  • Have only scored more than 1 goal in a single home match once.
  • All defeats home and away v top 4.
  • Failed to score in 5 of those 6 matches.
  • 33% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.


  • No draw in 4 away and scored in their last 5 away
  • 0-0 with Porto last time out but prior to that, 8 wins in their previous 9 matches.
  • Only 3 wins in 6 away matches
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • All wins home and away v 10th and lower.
  • v 14th and lower , have scored 5-2-4-3-3-5-1-3 goals.
  • No bottom 3 side has scored against Benfica.
  • 16 first half and 17 2nd half goals scored away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 1-1 last time out is a worry but this season Gil Vicente have been convincingly beaten at home to top 5 sides. Their failure to score in their last 3 at home could be their death today.
  • Only 4 clean sheets means we expect Benfica to score at some stage, and scoring 3+ goals in 6 of 8 matches v 14th and lower suggests Benfica will outscore Gil today.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.

19:00 UK Sevilla v Real Madrid - 2.04 away

Standout Stats

  • 4 Real wins in the last 5 head to heads saw both teams score in 4 of the matches. Sevilla won 2-1 in the last home head to head.
  • This is 5th v 2nd in La Liga.  Real Madrid go top with a win. It is a must-win really with Barcelona 1.09 shots today. Sevilla are battling for 4th spot with Valencia so this is a must win for them


  • 17 without defeat at home
  • No defeat in 10 overall
  • Have scored at least 2 goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • 7 wins and 2 score draws in their last 9 matches.
  • 2-2 home draw with Barcelona recently.
  • Failed to score in only 4 all season.
  • All draws at home v top 4 2-2, 0-0, 1-1
  • 20 first half and 14 2nd half goals scored at home
  • Scored first in 12 of 17 home matches

Real Madrid

  • 6 match winning streak, 2 away
  • 17 away without a draw, 9 away
  • Scored at least 3 goals in their last 4 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th and 11th.
  • 76% over 2.5 goals all season
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away
  • 22 first half and 24 2nd half goals scored away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This really is a toughie, what with Sevilla being so solid at home and Real Madrid a shade below their best but still winning, despite the absence of Bale, Benzema and Modric. I thought Real were poor in their last match in the first half.
  • This is a match to certainly lay any 2-0/0-2 lead.
  • Both teams are likely to score today, such is the strength of Sevilla's draw sequences v the top 4 at home and both teams' strong scoring records.
  • This is a must must win for Real Madrid. Otherwise they could be 5 points shy of Barcelona with 4 matches remaining