Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

And so it begins? Dortmund and Inter Milan lost last night. Any coincidence that this weekend is pre-Champions League and pre-Europa League?
Something to be aware of today, particularly if these teams are playing away from home. The live chat webinar will be at 14:30 today.
Please register to attend at the calendar on the home page. See you there. https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4938859294594663948 is the amended link for today's live chat webinar. Please re-register to attend. There was a glitch in the webinar software.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Tottenham v Arsenal - 1.93 Tottenham

  • I am not going to research such a high profile derby, albeit to remind you that this Arsenal side, while excellent at home, are distinctly Wenger-esque away from home.

15:00 - AFC Bournemouth v Manchester City - 1.3 Man City

  • Research done before results of 27th February are known. Workload too great for me to delay (ironically enough).

Bournemouth (10th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • Scored in those 5 at home.
  • Only 7 clean sheets. The last 2 clean sheets saw wins.
  • 100% defeats v the top 5 home and away.
  • 3-1 Man City win earlier this season.

Man City (2nd)

  • 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • 19 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3 wins and 3 losses last 6 away.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches and last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season.
  • Losses away came v 6th, 12th and 15th.
  • Those losses were the only matches City conceded 2 goals in away.
  • 16 goals scored first half away.

Conclusions

  • If Bournemouth are losing to top 5, then this is easy to read.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Man City.
  • If Man City do not concede 2 goals today, they are likely to win.

15:00 - Brighton v Huddersfield - 1.79 Brighton

Brighton (16th)

  • Research done before result of 26th Feb match is known.
  • Only 1 win in 11. Are Brighton being found out?
  • 1-1-1-0-0-1 goals scored recently at home.
  • Only 2 losses at home outside the top 4 so home is where the points away.
  • Only played one of the bottom 6 so little to gauge performance v fellow strugglers.

Huddersfield (20th)

  • 13 losses and a draw last 14 matches.
  • 6 losses in 7 away.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Have failed to score in 3 matches away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Brighton are more likely to earn points at home but have only played one of the bottom 6. How will they perform v strugglers? We don't know. A suggestion that the strugglers may be of a similar level to Brighton.
  • Brighton are failing to score that 2nd goal recently. Will that change v strugglers? Huddersfield are failing to score full stop, so unless we see 2 goals from them today, we lay Huddersfield if they score first.
  • Brighton may get away with it, not because they are in any sort of form, just because the opponents are so poor.

15:00 - Burnley v Crystal Palace - 2.8 both sides

  • Experience tells me to focus on other matches and leave these matches to the in-play stats. Research normally ends up with me saying that these 2 are well-matched etc.etc. 2.8 the favourite suggests a wide open affair.
  • The odds may change depending on how Palace played against Man Utd.

15:00 - Man Utd v Southampton - 1.55 Man Utd

Man Utd (5th)

  • Research done before result of mid week matches is known. Purely down to the workload!
  • 2 new managers so we focus on the new manager form in isolation.
  • Fine display under Ole but hardly been tested bar 2 elite sides in Tottenham and Liverpool (1-0 win and 0-0).
  • Southampton I put under the label of mediocrity, the likes of which Ole has been served up since his appointment.
  • 3 wins and 2 consecutive draws at home under Ole. Scoring and conceding in 4 of 5 matches. This is in stark contrast to Ole away where clean sheets are the order of the day.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's at home as well.
  • United have scored and conceded in all home matches v 14th and lower and not lost.

Southampton (18th)

  • New manager started with a 3-2 win v Arsenal and ended with a 2-0 loss to Arsenal (prior to Fulham match).
  • I feel we will will a replication of a comfortable Arsenal win today.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw , Loss under new manager.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/11 under new manager. Noticeably failed to score v Chelsea and Arsenal.
  • 100% losses v top 4 away.

Conclusions

  • If patterns continue, then we will see Saints struggle to score a goal against an elite top 6 side and we will see a United win. United did have a habit of scoring and conceding at home and keeping clean sheets away. Will that pattern be broken today. Remember that Arsenal broke that scoring and conceding pattern at home to Southampton so it could be possible.
  • Most certainly, if Saints score first, they are very layable.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Schalke v Dusseldorf - 1.81 Schalke

Schalke (14th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home
  • Only 4 clean sheets..
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Beat Dusseldorf 0-2 earlier this season.
  • v 11th and lower at home, are unbeaten.

Dusseldorf (12th)

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches came v Leipzig and Leverkusen, 2 in-form and highly positioned sides.
  • Draw and loss last 2 away.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Not played 10th - 14th away so gap in form there.
  • Not scored an away goal in the first 30 minutes.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Schalke seem to not lose v 11th and lower. Is that enough to side with a team with 3 losses in 4 matches, failing to score in 3 of their last 4 matches?
  • Dusseldorf are in good nick, only losing or drawing v the top teams in recent form. They cannot be discounted readily given Schalke are not the side who were 2nd last season. Only 4 clean sheets though for Dusseldorf suggests they will concede at some point.

14:30 - Bayer Leverkusen v Freiburg - 1.44 Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen (7th)

  • 6 wins in their last 8 matches. 5 wins in their last 6 at home.
  • No draw in 10 and in 7 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Exclusively lose to the top 8 this season.

Freiburg (13th)

  • 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • I recounted last research how solid they were scoring wise. 2-2-3-0-5 goals scored of late.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 16. 3-1 losses v 6th and 8th away.

Conclusions

  • Freiburg have goals in them. That is for sure. But only 1 away win v the top 16 suggests the market is right and Leverkusen, in form, have a great chance to add to their 6 wins in 8 matches.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Hoffenheim - 2.4 Frankfurt

Frankfurt (6th)

  • 4 draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 home matches came v Bayern Munich.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win v the top 9. Scored and conceded in 8/9 home matches v top 13.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim (8)

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches came v Bayern Munich.
  • 9 draws, 2 wins and a loss in 12 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 5 draws away in the last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 11 away.
  • No defeat in 9 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 loss away v top 10 came v Bayern Munich.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have only recently lost v Bayern Munich so are in decent nick.
  • With the mighty Hoff, we should expect both teams to score. Frankfurt have failed to score in only 3 matches so should oblige.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Mainz - 1.85 Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches came away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Score draws at home v 8th-15th.
  • 0-0 v Mainz earlier this season.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored art home came first half.

Mainz (11th)

  • 3 losses in last 4.
  • 2 consecutive 3-0 losses away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 away matches....
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market....but these 2 are in poor very recent form.
  • Hertha have a points-dropping score draw habit at home v 8th-15th. Should that suggest they concede, then lay them if they score first.
  • Mainz scored 70% of their away goals first half.

14:30 - Nurnberg v Leipzig - 1.54 Leipzig

  • No indepth research here. We have profited recently by opposing Nurnberg.
  • Nurnberg are bottom of the league. They have no win in 17 matches and 9 at home, With 6 0-0's at halftime at home, they might stay tight until the 2nd half.
  • They have failed to score v the top 5 home and away.
  • With Leipzig only losing v the top 5, bar 1 match, we should expect 2/3+ goals from Leipzig today. Anything else? React!

17:30 - Mgladbach v Bayern Munich - 1.54 Bayern Munich

  • This is 3rd v 2nd and these top 3 clashes can sometimes be difficult to predict.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats for Mgladbach ends a run where they tended towards a 0-0 at halftime and then a 2-0 win 2nd half.
  • I believe that this is down to the fact that early home form flatters them because they were meeting weaker sides.
  • No draw in 11 at home. Their 2 recent home defeats came v 5th and 10th at home. They are yet to meet the top 4 at home and I predict struggles.
  • They did beat Bayern 0-3 earlier this season.
  • 10 wins and a loss last 11 matches for Bayern sees them back to solid form. They have scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • Bayern have scored in their last 16 away and last 9 overall.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away suggests they may give Mgladbach a look in.
  • Bayern have not had a 0-0 at halftime away, but 7 0-1 leads. This contrasts with Magladbach's high % of 0-0's at hafltime at home.
  • Bayern have lost to the top 3 away and home, conceding 3 goals in each match.
  • Were this a match played prior to 2 home 0-3 defeats, I would have given Mgladbach a solid chance. They may yet perform well as Bayern have conceded 3 goals v top 3 this season but on ultra recent form, I have to be with Bayern.
  • Lay Mgladbach if they score first given they are struggling of late.
  • Based on Bayern, we usually lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I would delay, although for 2 consecutive home matches, Mgladbach have had a 0-1 loss at halftime.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Empoli v Parma - 2.04 Empoli

Empoli (17th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 2-2 and 3-0 last 2 at home. Can they bring that momentum into this match?
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Solid and unbeaten v 14th and lower. Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 match.
  • 3 wins and a 2-2 at home v 14th and lower.

Parma (13th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (42%).
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower but not met bottom 4 away.
  • Parma won the earlier head to head 1-0.
  • 15 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Empoli's solid unbeaten form v 14th and lower can extend to 13th, then we'd expect 2+ goals of them today and worst case draw. That is an 'if' though. Parma too are unbeaten v 16th and lower but the problem here is a gap in form. Not met bottom 4 away. Parma do tend to keep it tight first half and concede 2nd half so watch for that.
  • Only 1 win in 10 plays 4 defeats in 5. Can we trust these 2?

17:00 - Milan v Sassuolo - 1.53 Milan

Milan (4th)

  • 3 consecutive wins scoring 3 goals.
  • Only lost 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (38%).
  • 100% wins at home v 10th and lower - 2+ goals scored.
  • Beat Sassuolo 1-4 earlier this season.

Sassuolo (11th)

  • 2 3-0 defeats in their last 3 matches.
  • 3 losses and a 0-0 away v the top 5. 2/3 goals conceded in 3 of those matches.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The number 3 resounds. Will Milan score 3 goals again. Will Sassuolo concede 3 goals again?
  • Milan should continue their excellent run and 100%T win record v 10th and lower. Sassuolo note concede 8/12 goals 2nd half away.

19:30 - Lazio v Roma - 2.6 Lazio

  • A watching brief here in thie Roma Derby. Lazio 0-0 the last time Roma visited. Roma won the last 2 at Roma.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Espanyol v Valladolid - 1.84 Espanyol

Espanyol (14th)

  • 3 draws and a won last 4 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Draw at home last 4 matches -lost v Real Madrid.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. did lose at home v 15th but beat 18th, 19th and drew with 20th at home.
  • Only lost 1 home match v 9th and lower, seeing 7 wins.

Valladolid (16th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 8 away.
  • 3 consecutive losses away without scoring.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Only 1 win away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 7 wins at home v 9th and lower is good stuff for Espanyol.
  • I would look to favour Espanyol on that basis.

15:15 - Villareal v Alaves - 1.71 Villareal

Villareal (18th)

  • Only 2 wins in 19 matches came at home.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at hafltime at home (54%).
  • Beat 5th and 7th at home and play 6th today.
  • Scored v top 8 at home, scored 2+ goals on 3 occasions.
  • 69% of goals scored and 71% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Alaves (6th)

  • A win and 2 draws last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 4 away.
  • 3/3 wins away v 16th and lower, 2 of those wins were 0-1. 2-1 win at home v Villareal.
  • 8 goals conceded away came last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. Villareal are really in a false position but I suppose it does not lie as far as this season is concerned. Villareal beat 5th and 7th at home and play 6th today. But Alaves have 3/3 wins away v 16th and lower. The form therefore cannot pick a strong favourite.

17:30 - Huesca v Sevilla - 2.04 Sevilla

Huesca (20th)

  • 2 wins, a loss and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 wins all season suggests that recent winning flurry may not continue.
  • 50% of home matches at halftime were 0-1 defeats.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side. 2-1 loss the last time these 2 met.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sevilla (5th)

  • 5 losses, a draw and a win last 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (46% of matches).
  • 2/2 wins v the bottom 2, scoring and conceding.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 wins for Huesca surely puts us, and probability, with Sevilla. Albeit 4 consecutive away defeats and no win in 9 away for Sevilla. Can you trust that form? Huesca still have not beaten a top 6 side. Enough to hang our hat on?

19:45 - Real Madrid v Barcelona - 2.54 Barcelona

  • 0-3 Barcelona in the 2nd leg of the Copa Del Rey sees momentum with them in this quick return of El Classico.
  • Yet another high profile derby match I will not research. The Copa saw a 1-1 and a 0-3 Barcelona. Make of that what you will.
  • Messi is electric at the moment.
  • Expectation is for both teams to score as has been a very long pattern in head to heads. There was also a long pattern of one team scoring at least 2 goals. Will we see this?
  • In-play stats will allow us the angles in. I personally would lay Real Madrid if they scored first given Barcelona seem the more competent attack and the team with the momentum.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Heracles v Utrecht - 2.46 Utrecht

  • Unappealing betting market 2.46 the favourite, signals a tough-to-call match.

18:45 - Excelsior v PSV - 1.23 PSV

Excelsior (14th)

  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 6-0 loss and 1-7 loss v top 2 this season.
  • Beat 3rd and 5th at home.
  • 19 of 27 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

PSV (1st)

  • Only 1 loss this season.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • 3 consecutive 2-2 draws away.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded away v 13th and lower in 4/5 matches.
  • 12 goals scored last 15 minutes of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Excelsior have conceded 13 goals in 2 matches v the top 2 this season. There is nothing to suspect an Excelsior comeback today despite good recent home form - 3 consecutive home wins.
  • PSV are on a 2-2 away draw sequence currently. It tells us that they are capable of equalising if conceding first.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away for PSV suggests laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Vitesse v NAC Breda - 1.36 Vitesse

Vitesse (5th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 6 wins in 8 matches at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home and conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the bottom 2 at home. 1-1 v 16th scored and conceded in all home matches v 7th and lower.
  • 2-1 loss to NAC Breda earlier this season.

NAC Breda (18th)

  • 4 losses and 2 draws last 6 matches. 5 losses in 6 away.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 3 away.
  • 100% defeats away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • It does look good for Vitesse today given the woeful away losing performances of NAC Breda.
  • We could see Vitesse scoring 2+ goals at least today and that should be enough for a score draw at least. I say that as they have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 at home but have 6 wins in 8 at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the expectation for goals.