Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I could only find one tennis trade yesterday. Backing Dimitrov at 5 and then again at 17.5 odds as he made a pig's ear out of his 3rd set with Verdasco. 3-0 down (17.5 odds) he made it back to 3-3 and the odds plummeted to 5 to allow a trading profit....with Dimitrov still losing the match. I'll be back and tweeting today @drtclub as long as 'she who must be obeyed' has no plans to go out.
The only surprise in the football was a 3-1 Bray win in Ireland. UCD scored their 3 goals as predicted and as a bet were superb value! Today sees a raft of International Friendlies (I may actually go and watch Thailand v China - a feast of football there, almost matched by Kenya v New Zealand). Some Marquee matches later in the day with Germany and England. In-play stats will confirm the attitude to these friendlies, as I suppose will team news. It's the last day in the Spanish Segunda Division and we have one match where the draw is the favourite. We are in the unique position in Spain of teams attempting to avoid relegation, odds-on favourites against other teams in far better form. The market has spoken in favour of must wins v dead rubbers.
Elsewhere we have the Swedish Superettan whose matches I suppose are most readable. It is a mish-mash of matches. If I am around from 15:00 onwards I'll tweet @drtclub but no promises. Spanish Segunda Division - be led by the market especially with teams needing a win, and also get confirmation via the in-play stats (Mobile bet365 side is superb for free in-play stats). If I am up at 19:30 I'd like to follow this last day in Spain.

12:30 - Thailand v China - 2.42 Thailand

  • Last friendly was in 2014, a 3-0 China win.
  • New manager for Thailand might engender some improvement.
  • Thailand have won their last 2 friendlies v Myanmar and Kenya.
  • Thailand have been reasonable at home in friendlies. 4 wins, a draw and a 0-1 loss in their last 6 matches.
  • 3 losses in 5 friendlies for China saw them unable to score. Wins v Philippines and Myanmar recently in friendlies.
  • I would back 0-0 here pre-match and will trade out at halftime if still 0-0. 2 very limited teams.

15:30 - Kenya v New Zealand - 2.18 NZ

  • If Kenya lose to the likes of Thailand (no offence to Thais) then Kenya are a bit pants.
  • New Zealand might edge this as a more structured side. It's hardly the match to stop the traffic.
  • I would tentatively side with the Kiwis here.

16:00 - Latvia v Estonia - 2.38 Latvia

  • No thanks!

17:00 - Austria v Germany - 1.57 Germany

  • Austria are not Russia bound.
  • Germany have tended to win head to heads.
  • The last 2 scorelines in Austria were 1-2.
  • 2 draws and 4 consecutive wins in friendlies for Austria v Uruguay, Slovenia, Luxembourg and Russia.
  • 2 draws and 3 consecutive wins at home for Austria in friendlies.
  • Note that Germany have not had that killer instinct in friendlies.
  • 4 draws and a loss last 5 friendlies. Context though. They did play Denmark, England, France, Spain and Brazil!!
  • 1-1-1-0-0-1-0 goals conceded by Germany in recent away friendlies. A loss and 3 draws though away. A couple of 0-0's v Italy and England.
  • Clearly Germany use friendlies in experimental mode you feel. Austria may have a shout here. I could see both teams score at least. Germany though do tend to beat Austria. IS that recent Austrian friendly winning form going to continue? Is the value in laying Germany if they score first? Just based on their friendly form? BUT this is pre-World Cup! Ahh the joys of friendlies.

17:15 - England v Nigeria - 1.47 England

  • With Tunisia in their Group England want to practice against African nations it seems.
  • Nigeria are in Group D in the World Cup so we have 2 teams here who are heading to Russia.
  • Last head to head 2002.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 win 1-1 for Eng-er-land in recent friendlies. They continue their impressive world cup qualifiers defensive displays. 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 at home for England in recent friendlies v Germany, Brazil and Italy.
  • Note England have had only 1 winning friendly in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 friendlies for Nigeria was v Serbia. They did recently beat Argentina in a friendly.
  • In-play stats and team news the keys here. We should expect England not to lose.

18:45 - Sweden v Denmark - 2.62 Sweden

  • Both sides are World Cup bound so how will this match play out? As an experiment or a confidence booster?
  • A local derby of sorts, hence the market.
  • 2-1 Sweden and 2-2 in Euro qualifiers the most recent competitive head to heads.
  • Recent Swedish friendlies saw a 1-1 v Norway, 1-2 loss to Chile and 1-0 loss to Romania.
  • Sweden rarely lose home friendlies. Recent victors include Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Belgium and Finland.The Finnish result the only surprise I'd argue there.
  • Denmark seem to have focussed on defence in their friendlies, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 win and 0-0 v Chile.
  • The collateral form is through Chile therefore and suggests the Danes may be tough to score against. On that basis, if the Swedes (minus Ibrahimovic) score first, lay them in the hope that Denmark are tough to score against and replicate recent 1-1 results?

19:15 - Montenegro v Slovenia - 2.54 Montenegro

  • Neither side are going to Russia so quickly passed over. In-play stats the angle if you want to play.

19:45 - Belgium v Portugal - 1.87 Belgium

  • A good test for both sides. Portugal likely without Ronaldo and do not tend to win when he is absent.
  • 2-1 Portugal last match, a friendly, in 2016.
  • Belgium have not lost a match since September 2016.
  • Only 2 losses in 19 friendlies for Belgium were v Spain and Portugal.
  • 3-2-3-1-4 goals scored by the Belgians in recent friendlies.
  • Only Spain have beaten Belgium at home in a friendly since 2014.
  • Portugal have a less impressive friendly record.Loss v Netherlands and draw with Tunisia latest.
  • Last away friendly was June 2016.
  • I would tentatively look to Belgium not to lose today. Remember the context of the match. It is a friendly!

20:00 - Rep of Ireland v USA - 2.1 Ireland

  • These are 2 functional, unspectacular sides. Lacking strength in depth.
  • Neither side is going to Russia so questionable motivation for this friendly.
  • In 2014's friendly Ireland won emphatically.
  • The reason Ireland are not going to Russia? They scored 1-1-0-2-1-0-1-0-0 goals. Twice when they scored a single goal the match ended 1-1.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 friendlies for the Irish came v Oman and Uruguay.
  • Those were the most recent home wins.Recent home friendly losses v Belarus and Iceland.
  • The USA are unbeaten in friendlies sine 2016 admittedly playing mostly South American and Concacaf countries.
  • A really defensive display in those friendlies conceding 0-1-0-0-0-1-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0 goals.
  • USA are unbeaten in 6 friendlies away albeit stretching back to March 2015.Wins over Netherlands and Germany catch the eye!
  • AS is usual with the Irish, I tend to do as I will with Thailand and back the 0-0 pre-match at its highest odds and hope that these 2's defences are to the fore, at least until the first half, to enable me to cash out at halftime.

21:00 - Iceland v Norway - 2.1 Iceland

  • Iceland are heading off to Russia, the surprise package from the Euros.
  • Last head to head was a friendly in June 2016, a 3-2 Norway win.
  • Norway are not going to Russia.
  • With Iceland facing Argentina in the World Cup, they have focused on South American friendly opponents losing to Mexico and Peru.
  • Only 1 win in 6 friendlies for Iceland. Either they use friendlies as experiments or choose higher ranked teams.
  • A reading of the teams Iceland has beaten in friendlies at home has you favouring Norway. Wins v Faroes, Andorra, Faroes again (twice more), Estonia and Liechtenstein.
  • 2 consecutive friendly wins for Norway v Australia and Albania.
  • As I said, they beat Iceland 3-2 in June 2016.
  • Iceland have not really been tested at home but when meeting better teams they lose. Remember the euros though where they were superb.
  • Only 1 win in 10 away friendlies for Norway enough to side with the Icelanders?

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION all 19:30 kick offs.

19:30 - Barcelona B v Zaragoza - 2.02 Zaragoza

  • This is a dead rubber. Barcelona B are in the relegation places. Zaragoza will not be budged from the promotion play-off places and gain little with a win.

Alcorcon v Reus Deportiu - 2.1 the draw

  • Wow. the draw is the favourite here! Alcorcon are on 49 points with 4th bottom on 47 points. I'd have thought that a win would be on their radar to really underline their survival on this last match of the season.
  • Reus are safe as houses and not going into any promotion play-offs.
  • 5 draws in 7 matches for Alcorcon so they have been practicing! 0-0, 1-1, 4-0, 0-0 last 4 matches.
  • Reus have a draw and 2 defeats last 3 matches.
  • With matches such as this one, particularly if Reus scores first, you must either dismiss the match or keep faith in the market's assertion that the draw is favourite. if the latter, then lay Reus if Reus scores first.

Lugo v Almeria - 1.56 Almeria

  • Lugo are safe from harm. Almeria currently hold 4th bottom - a relegation threatening position. Almeria simply must win, because there are so many teams with the potential to finish 4th bottom.
  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches for Almeria who must make it 3 in 14 today. The market has again lurched with them because of their need rather than their form.
  • Are you with needs must v dead rubber? Then stick with Almeria throughout.

Oviedo v Huesca - 1.64 Oviedo

  • Huesca win the title with a win today but are assured a top 2 spot. Like the Rayo match, the market has gone with the lesser positioned team. Oviedo, with a win, could clinch a promotion play-off place - 2 points shy at the moment.
  • Another match where the better team (Huesca) is expected to down tools and take it easy v a team needing a win.

Valladolid v Osasuna - 2.22 Valladolid

  • This is a battle for a play-off place. Both sides really must win. Osasuna are in the play-off places on goal difference only.
  • Osasuna are unbeaten in 8 and a draw may do (5 draws). 3 wins in 4 though. 3 wins in 4 for Valladolid too.
  • 18 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches for Osasuna today away from home. Something to factor in?
  • Both teams have scored in all bar 1 of Valladolid's home matches v top 10. Osasuna only 2 wins away v top 14 teams.
  • Lay any late draw would be all I would say here based on a need for a win? Expect both teams to score too.

Gimnastic v Rayo Vallecano - 1.5 Gimnastic

  • A fascinating match. I had to double check the market. Rayo win the title with a win today but cannot be caught as far as automatic promotion is concerned. The market thinks that Rayo are not bothered about being title winners and are happy to just be promoted with a guaranteed top 2 berth.
  • Gimnastic are one of the 6 sides seeking to avoid the 4th bottom relegation spot.

Numancia v Leonesa - 2.04 Numancia

  • This is a match in which both teams have everything to play for. Numancia simply must win in order to have a chance at a promotion play off place. They are 2 points off a place and if the other contenders lose, they will at least have done their part with a win.
  • Leonesa are one of the 6 sides threatened with bottom 4 relegation place so may get away with a draw (other results pending) but will assure safety with a win.
  • 3 defeats in 4 recently for Numancia.Only 1 loss in 8 for Leonesa so the troubled side are really trying their best to accumulate points.
  • Season long form though sees Numancia easily deal with 11th and lower at home. 10 wins and a single loss.
  • Leonesa have not beaten a top 12 side away this season.
  • On season long form, it's heartache possibly for Leonesa today. On ultra recent form, we'd give Leonesa a fighting chance (only 1 loss in 8). The value is in the latter and a lay of Numancia if Numancia score first. Remember though that both teams have a win in mind here.

Tenerife v Albacete - 1.71 Albacete

  • As is the habit today, the better form side (Tenerife) have nothing to play for. Albacete are one of that big group of teams threatened with that 4th bottom relegation place so this is a must-win for them.
  • Dead rubber v Must win yet again! Favour the must win?

Granada v Cadiz - 1.63 Cadiz

  • Last match of the season. Granada find themselves safe. Cadiz are clinging onto the last play off promotion spot on goal difference. This match is therefore a must-win for Cadiz.
  • 7 draws in 10 for Cadiz put them at jeopardy. Only 1 win in 10 matches for Cadiz.
  • Only 2 wins in 13 for Granada at least allows Cadiz a chance here.
  • 10 wins, a loss and a draw for Granada at home v top 14. On home form, they'd be in with a chance but motivation is only with this being last match of the season.
  • Faith in the team which must win v the team with nothing to play for? Then side with Cadiz throughout.
  • I would take a chance and lay any late 1-1. A lot of 1-1 draws for Cadiz of late.

Cordoba v Sporting Gijon - 1.78 Cordoba

  • Sporting Gijon have 3rd place wrapped up so have little to nothing to play for. They cannot get 2nd place.
  • Cordoba have everything to play for. One point above the bottom 4 spots. One of 6 sides who could get that 4th bottom spot.
  • Cordoba have scored in their last 13 at home so will give it a go. They have scored in their last 17 matches overall.
  • Cordoba have scored 2 + goals in each of their last 4 matches and last 3 at home.
  • 3 losses in 4 for Gijon - a crack in the armour?
  • Cordoba don't really have the season form to cope with a top 10 team, only 2 wins.
  • Tough to evaluate. Do expect a goal from a Cordoba side used to scoring. The question is Gijon's motivation knowing they have nothing to gain or lose.
  • Lay Gijon if Gijon scores first?

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

15:00 - Norrby IF v IK Brage - 2.66 Norrby

  • No head to heads.

Norrby (13th)

  • No win in 7 matches. Failed to score in 5 of those and in their last 3 matches.
  • 4 defeats at home and a single win v 12th.

IK Brage (6th)

  • Only 1 loss was a 3-4.
  • 5 draws in their last 7 matches.
  • 2 0-0's in their last 3 aways.
  • 3 0-0's away -remain unbeaten.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 but that did not stop me predicting 2/2 last time out at such odds.
  • IK Brage not to lose would be my angle into this match. If Norrby score, they may not follow up.
  • 3 0-0's away is a concern for Brage but I would take on a late 0-0 given Norrby's 4 losses at home in 5 matches.

15:00 - Varbergs BoIS v Halmstads - 2.24 Halmstads

  • 3 consecutive Halmstads wins in head to heads.

Varbergs (12th)

  • A draw and 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • At home, played 2 matches v top 8, 0-2 v 2nd and 0-1 v 7th.

Halmstads (5th)

  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • 2 1-3 wins and a 0-0 last 3 aways.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only away loss v 2nd.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • On form, I am with Halmstads today, they have had 3 away wins where they conceded a goal but outscored (obviously) their opponents so that is my angle if Varbergs score first.

15:00 - IK Frej v Osters - 2.2 Osters

  • 2 0-1 Osters wins last 2 head to heads.

Frej (15th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • Win and draw last 2 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2-1 v 9th, 2-3 v 12th and 2-2 v 13th at home.Play 11th today.
  • All 7 home goals scored first half.

Osters (11th)

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Losses away v 4th and 5th. beat 10th and 12th (and 1st) away.

Conclusions

  • Frej may score today and even score 2 goals. So watch out for that. They may not win, even with 2 goals! I think both teams could score today. I would favour Osters not to lose even if it is 2-0 Frej today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Frej score at home, it tends to be a first half goal.

17:00 - Degerfors v Varnamo - 1.87 Degerfors

  • A draw and 2 Varnamo wins in the last 3 head to heads bucks the match odds.

Degerfors (7th)

  • 1-3 win, 2-2, 2-2, 0-1 win last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Win, loss, Draw at home.
  • Not played 10th or lower at home so big form gap. BUT have beaten 12th and lower away from home.

Varnamo (16th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 2 0-0's and 3 losses last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score last 4 away.
  • All defeats v top 9.
  • Only 1 goal scored away.

Conclusions

  • You don't have to have the cranial capacity of, say, a Beckham or a Rooney to side with the home side on form. If Varnamo have only scored 1 goal away, then they are vulnerable. Degerfors have a big gap in form v 10th and lower at home but the fact that they have won away v 12th and lower should logically suggest that with home advantage they should equal this?
  • Value seekers note that Varnamo have won the last 2 head to heads.