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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, July 29, 2017

The Belgian Pro League kicks off for 8 teams today (17:00; 19:00; 19:30) but I will not research. As I have pointed out this week, in-play stats are key if you play these newly starting leagues. The big boys Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna play today as the Austrian Bundesliga also kicks off. The Danish Superliga is beginning too. All 3 leagues will be good trading leagues once we get form lines.
The International Champions Cup is quite simply a mine field. There are multiple team changes at halftime. Leave well alone. There are some very high profile teams playing friendlies today, from Arsenal to Feyenoord, West Ham, Werder Bremen, Newcastle, Leicester, Liverpool, and Southampton. In-play stats folks!
I couldn't do any trading yesterday, the medication knocked me for six. I am feeling a little spritlier today so will be monitoring the tennis and footy on Twitter @drtclub. No set time to start.

15:00 - PS Kemi v FC Inter - 2.24 FC Inter

  • 3-1, 0-0, 1-3 PS Kemi wins in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 8th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

PS Kemi

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3 1-1 draws in the last 4 home matches.
  • All 3 home defeats v top 4.
  • 3 consecutive home draws v 9th and lower.

FC Inter

  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • Only away draw v 1st in the league.
  • Wins away v 6th, 7th, 11th, 12th.

Conclusions

  • I don't like this Finnish League. Bar HJK matches, it is tough to read.
  • expect 2 goals at least today.
  • I would back 2-1 and 1-2 in this match. FC Inter tend to avoid draws and concede recently. They have 100% over 1.5 goals away so a hope both teams contribute at least one goal.
  • I tend to trade the 2-1 and 1-2 if lucky enough to see 1-1 , as then 2-1 and 1-2 odds will drop.

15:00 - Lahti v IFK Mariehamn - 2.22 Lahti

  • 0-2 lahti in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 5th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Lahti

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss was v 4th.

IFK

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored all 5 goals away in the first half.

Conclusions

  • I have to be with Lahti here today. No defeat in 11 matches. Lay IFK if IFK scores first.

15:00 - Ilves v VPS - 2.5 Ilves

  • 0-0 and 0-2 Ilves in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 2nd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Ilves

  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Scored first in 6/8 at home.
  • Losses at home came v 8th and lower. 1-1 draws v 1st and 3rd at home.

VPS

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 8 away.
  • Only loss away v 1st.
  • All wins away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Best case 1-1 for Ilves today? I personally am taken with VPS form albeit their sole loss was v 1st away and they play 2nd today.
  • I would lay Ilves if Ilves score first.

15:00 - Elfsborg v Sirius - 1.75 Elfsborg

  • 4-1 Sirius in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 4th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Elfsborg

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came last match.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 consecutive home wins scoring 2+ goals.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Lost at home v 1st and 2nd. Have lost all matches v top 4.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sirius

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored all 12 goals away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would be happy with backing 2-1 and 1-2 today and hoping that both teams score. If we see 1-1, we can trade out of both correct scores.
  • 2 goals at least are expected today. Sirius are highly likely to score 2nd half if they have not scored first half.

15:00 - Jonkopings Sodra v Hammarby - 2.72 Hammarby

  • 1-1, 0-1 Hammarby and 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 9th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Sodra

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 5 defeats in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win home and away v teams above them in the league.
  • Only scored 2 goals once v teams above them in the league.

Hammarby

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Lost their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only 3 times but did last 2 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Hammarby should not lose.
  • I would lay Sodra if Sodra scored first given they have struggled to score that 2nd goal.
  • With both sides keeping only 2 clean sheets, we could see both teams score.

17:00 - Sundsvall v Malmo FF - 1.53 Malmo

  • Malmo has won the last 2 head to heads to nil.
  • This is 13th v 1st in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Sundsvall

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals in a match v top 9 home or away.

Malmo

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 4 wins in 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches home and away v teams 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I do not expect Malmo to lose today. Sundsvall will be layable if scoring first as they don't have that 2nd goal in them it seems.
  • Malmo could score 2 goals today. 0-2, 1-2? Malmo tend to score twice as many goals second half as first half so note that if 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - Sligo Rovers v Dundalk - 1.46 Dundalk

  • 2 consecutive 4-0 wins for Dundalk in head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 2nd in the Irish Premier League.

Sligo Rovers

  • Only 4 wins all came at home.
  • Have only lost to 1st and 2nd in the league at home.

Dundalk

  • 5 wins ended last match.
  • 9 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 away matches.
  • No away draw.

Conclusions

  • Dundalk look in fine form and could keep a clean sheet today. They have scored 10 goals away in 2 matchs v the bottom 2. 1.46 odds look big in that context.
  • Expect a comfortable Dundalk win and react if Sligo scores first by backing Dundalk.

TENNIS

ATP Hamburg

Leonardo Mayer v Federico Delbonis - 1.82 Delbonis

  • 131st v 98th.
  • 2 Argentinians meet so will know each other well enough.
  • No recent head to heads.
  • Delbonis on the surface has the more eyecatching Hamburg form. His beating of Ferrer and Khachanov in the last 2 matches impresses me.
  • I will lay Mayer if Mayer wins the first set based only on liking Delbonis' ultra recent form.

Philipp Kohlschreiber v Florian Mayer - 1.53 Kohl

  • 2 Germans meet in Germany.
  • 31st v 47th.
  • Most recent head to head saw a Kohlschreiber  2 set win in 2016.
  • Both players have had 2 consecutive 3 setters in this tournament.
  • Mayer has beaten 2 consecutive 1.4 favourites so the market has got him wrong twice now this tournament.
  • I would look for a 3 setter today. Both teams will give 100%, playing at home.

ATP Atlanta Open

Gilles Muller v John Isner - 1.87 Isner

  • 28th v 24th.
  • Muller has won the last 2 most recent head to heads.There have been 5 tie breakers in those 2 matches.
  • Remember Isner won this tournament last year.
  • Muller we know is rock solid on grass - 129th v 396th are the players he has beaten to get here.
  • 112th v 103rd for Isner to get here.
  • They really have not been tested yet.
  • This looks like a 3 setter doesn't it and we are likely to see a tie breaker or two.I would be happier laying Isner if Isner wins the first set given the recent head to heads.

ATP Gstaad

Robin Haase v Yannick Hanfmann - 1.52 Haase

  • 46th v 262nd.
  • No head to heads.
  • 3 straight sets wins for Haase.
  • Hanfmann is a battler. 3 consecutive 3 setters.
  • I would be keener to lay Hanfmann if Hanfmann wins the first set.

Fabio Fognini v Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.6 Agut

  • 29th v 18th.
  • Last head to heads were in 2014.
  • Foggy has had 2 consecutive 3 setters at this tournament. 4 consecutive 3 setters for Foggy suggests laying him if he wins the first set.
  • Can we lay the first set winner?

WTA Bastad

Caroline Garcia v Katerina Siniakova - 1.69 Garcia

  • 24th v 38th in the rankings.
  • 3 3 setters in head to heads and 2-1 Garcia.
  • Both players have had 2 3 setters this tournament.
  • Garcia has recent strong clay court form - semi final ' quarter final - semi final again here.
  • I would be keener laying Katerina if Kat wins the first set.
  • We could see a 3 setter here. It occurs a lot with these 2 at Bastad.

Caroline Wozniacki v Elise Mertens - 1.34 Caroline

  • You know the drill. Wozzza likely to take a beating but heroically come back. Look to back Wozza at the highest odds you can and hope she keeps delivering.