https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7816636371363610892 is the link to today's live chat webinar at 14:30. Please register to attend. If the webinar is half as good as last Sunday's, I'll be delighted.
14:30 kick off
RB Leipzig (Champions League to come) v Schalke 04 - 1.59 Leipzig
- HT/FT: RB Leipzig have had W/W double results in 11/18 home matches while Schalke 04 have conceded first in 18/20 away matches against top-six teams. RB Leipzig have won 11/18 home matches.
- I like the look of Leipzig this season. 4 wins and a 1-1 draw v Bayern Munich.
- 2-1 and 1-1 at home for RB.
- The question is whether Schalke are the Schalke, 2nd placed, 2 seasons ago or the Schalke bombing last season. They have only lost to Bayern Munich. 0-0 v Mgladbach and 3 consecutive wins v Hertha Berlin, Paderborn and Mainz. A hint that Schalke may be on the improve but personally I will look at Leipzig here not to lose.
Mainz v Wolfsburg - 2.48 Wolf
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 FSV Mainz 05 home matches and in 7/8 Wolfsburg away matches against bottom-six teams. Wolfsburg have scored first in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 4 defeats and a win v Hertha Berlin for Mainz. Both teams scored in their last 4 matches. Mainz have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of 5 matches.
- No clean sheets.
- The Wolf are unbeaten. 2 wins, and 3 1-1 draws. Both teams scored in 4/5 Wolf matches.
- In the 10 matches these 2 have played, only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- 2.48 tells you there may not be any immediate trading angles.
- We see both teams to score patterns, no clean sheets Mainz and goal before halftime patterns.
Hoffenheim v Mgladbach - 2.48 Hoff
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Hoffenheim home matches and +3.5 goals in 6/8 Hoffenheim home matches against top-six teams. B. M'gladbach have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches.
- Only 1 win for the Hoff this season so far. 3-2 and 0-3 at home this season - conceding 5 goals!
- The Hoff failed to score in 3 of their first 4 matches.
- Mgladbach have 3 wins in 4 matches. Mgladbach have scored in their last 4 matches.
- Angles? No strong angles. Hoff yet to show their hand. 1-3 and 0-1 wins away for Mgladbach. The problem with this match is the Hoff are not showing their patterns yet.
Augsburg v Leverkusen (Champions League to come) - 1.67 Leverkusen
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Augsburg home matches against top-half teams and in 11/12 Leverkusen away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 8/10 Leverkusen away matches.
- Both teams have scored in all Augsburg matches this season. Augsburg losses came away.
- Leverkusen have been in good form, only losing to top 2 side Dortmund. I quite like taking on Augsburg. That is my angle.
Paderborn v Bayern Munich (Champions League to come) - 1.16 Bayern
- Match outcome: Bayern have won 9/10 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 10/20 away matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
- Oh no, roll call. Union Berlin 3-1, Granada 2-0, Brest 2-2 v Lyon. All of these newly promoted sides mentioned here up their games when the marquee clubs come to town.
- 4 losses and a draw for Paderborn. Their record suggests that they are not going to be added to our roll call. Bayern have scored in all matches. I expect a Bayern win scoring 2/3+ goals. Paderborn have already conceded 8 goals in 2 home matches.
17:30 - Dortmund (Champions League to come) v Werder Bremen - 1.28 Dortmund
- Match outcome: B. Dortmund have won 9/10 home matches against middle-third teams while W. Bremen have lost 6/10 away matches against top-six teams. B. Dortmund have had W/W double results in 8/10 home matches against middle-third teams.
- 5-1 and 4-0 at home for Dortmund this season. Dortmund lost famously to Union Berlin as I allude to above. They have scored in all matches.
- Werder look unreliable. They have beaten Augsburg and Union Berlin. They conceded 3 goals in 3 defeats.
- Angle? I am happy to oppose this season's Werder Bremen side. No 0-0 at halftime for either side this season.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Sheff Utd v Liverpool (Champions League to come) - 1.36 Liverpool
- HT/FT: Liverpool have had W/W double results in 5/8 away matches against promoted teams and they have won 6/8 such matches. Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 52% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
- Noticeably for me, Sheff Utd are conceding 2 goals v better sides such as Chelsea and Leicester. This is an angle in today. The big 3 were rested mid-week in the League Cup and could massacre Sean Bean's boys.
- Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in all wins.They have conceded in 5/6 matches so watch out for the potential United goal today likely in defeat.
- No 0-0 at halftime yet for Liverpool.
15:00 kick off
Wolves v Watford - 1.96 Wolves
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/6 Wolves home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 4/6 such matches. Watford have scored first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- The Bottom 2 early on and Wolves have a touch of the 'Burnley's' about them. Oh dear. Affected greatly by the Europa League.
- 4 draws and losses v Everton and Chelsea for Wolves.
- 1-1, 1-1, 2-5 at home. Wolves are yet to win a match.
- 4 defeats and 2 draws for Watford who, v Arsenal, were very very impressive with shots on/off target and thoroughly deserving of the 2-2 draw.
- Angles? Wolves are not currently readable. Their form is not true form and I feel they are Europa League affected. Watford have scored 0-1-0 in their last 3 aways.
Tottenham v Southampton - 1.47 Tottenham
- Match outcome: Spurs have won 14/17 home matches against middle-third teams while Southampton have lost 11/20 away matches. Spurs have scored first in 17/20 home matches against middle-third teams.
- Easy wins at home for Spurs v Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. But Newcastle managed to turn off those Spurs shots on target with a 0-1 win.
- No 0-0 at halftime yet for the Spuds. Southampton have lost to Burnley, Liverpool and Bournemouth. 0-2 and 0-1 wins away v Brighton and Sheffield United suggests to me that the Saints will have to 'do a Newcastle' to get a result here.
- Angles? Tottenham have struggled this season with 2-2 draws v top 6 away but at home, have beaten middling Villa and Palace with ease. Saints are certainly a middling side and expectation is for a Tottenham win.
Chelsea (Champions League to come) v Brighton - 1.46 Chelsea
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/17 Chelsea home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/12 Brighton away matches. Brighton have conceded first in 12/20 away matches.
- 1-1, 2-2, 1-2 at home for Chelsea this season. Yet to win. Wins away have been emphatic v Norwich and Wolves.
- Both teams have scored in the last 5 matches. No clean sheets for Chelsea.
- Only 1 win for Brighton, first match, v Watford.
- That was the last time they scored more than 1 goal in a match.
- Brighton have failed to score last 2 away matches.
- Angles - pre Champions League. Can Lampard manage this? yet to win at home, this is an ideal opportunity for Chelsea to record their first win, albeit will they concede yet again at home?
Crystal Palace v Norwich - 2.04 Palace
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/17 C Palace home matches and they have drawn the first half in 10/20 home matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have lost 66% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
- Norwich have won only 2 matches at home v Newcastle and Man City but away, 4-1 v Liverpool, 2-0 v West Ham and 2-0 v Burnley. Grisly old Campaigner Woy Hodgson awaits and may simply have too much experience for Norwich.
- 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 for Palace at home this season. They are not conceding that 2nd goal so note that. Palace have scored 2 goals only once which leaves them rather one dimensional if they cannot break this. 1-0 win is best case.
Aston Villa v Burnley - 2.42 Aston Villa
- -2.5 goals: Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Burnley have drawn the first half in 7/8 away matches against promoted teams. Burnley have drawn 5/8 away matches against promoted teams.
- I have consulted a psychic. A team with a connection to Claret and Blue will be winning or drawing this fixture today.
- 1-2, 2-0, 0-0 at home for Villa, 2 consecutive clean sheets.
- Burnley are free from Europa League distractions. 2-1 loss v Arsenal, 1-1 v Wolves, 1-1 v Brighton away for Burnley.
- Angles? I do like Burnley this season. A tentative nod towards them. Note the 2.42 suggests an unreadable match.
Bournemouth v West Ham - 2.58 Bournemouth
- Match outcome: West Ham have lost 5/8 away matches against top-six teams and they have conceded first in 6/8 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Bournemouth home matches against top-six teams.
- Top 6 early season both sides.
- Bournemouth's only defeats came v Man City and Leicester. No disgrace. Both teams have scored in all matches.
- West Ham have only lost to Man City. 3 consecutive clean sheets now.
- Angles? I am with the market. 2 form sides I can make a reasonable argument for.
17:30 - Everton v Man City (Champions League to come) - 1.33 Man City
- HT/FT: Man City have had W/W double results in 8/13 away matches and they have won 13/16 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Everton home matches against top-six teams.
- The last pre-Champions League away match for City saw a 3-2 loss v Norwich. That was compounded by post-International/pre-Champions league.
- 3 losses in 4 matches for Everton whose manager, for me, is locking horns with Ole for next manager to get the sack.
- 1-0, 3-2, 0-2 this season at home for Everton. Unless City are under performing or distracted, I cannot see Everton beating them. 5-3-2 goals scored away by City.
- No 0-0 at halftime yet for City. Acknowledgement for that exciting Everton forward line but 0-1-0-3-1-0 goals scored by them is poor return.
ITALIAN SERIA A
14:00 - Juventus (Champions League to come) v Spal - 1.29 Juventus
- HT/FT: Juventus have had W/W double results in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while SPAL 1907 have lost by two or more goals in 9/13 trips to top-six teams. SPAL 1907 have lost 11/12 away matches against top-six teams.
- 4 wins and a 0-0 for Juventus. The 0-0 came pre-Champions League.
- 4 losses and a 2-1 win v Lazio for SPAL. Spal are yet to score away from home.
- Angles? Pre-Champions League Juventus cocked up last time out. SPAL don't seem to have a scoring threat away.....yet. I cannot see Juve losing. Please check Juve team news.
17:00 - Sampdoria v Inter (Champions League to come) - 1.67 Inter
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Sampdoria home matches and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches. Inter Milan have scored first in 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 4 losses and a 1-0 win for Sampdoria v Torino. 3 losses came away.
- Inter Milan have looked excellent. They have won all matches, 1-2 and 0-2 away.
- Angles? Inter Milan are excellent this season and there is no reason for me to see them falter today.
19:45 - Sassuolo v Atalanta (Champions League to come) - 2.1 Atalanta
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/12 Sassuolo home matches and +3.5 goals in 10/20 Sassuolo home matches. Atalanta have won 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
- No draw yet for Sassuolo. 7 goals scored in 2 wins at home.
- Sassuolo have failed to score only once.
- Atalanta have only 1 loss 2-3 v Torino. 2-3, 1-2, 0-2 away from home. An impressive win v Roma latest.
- Angles? Clearly Sassuolo, with a small sample, are looking good at home. Atalanta love travelling. 2+ goals scored away from home in 3 wins. Atalanta's recent win v Roma has me lurching slightly towards them.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Hibernian v Celtic - 1.38 Celtic
- HT/FT: Celtic have had W/W double results in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have won 7/10 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 11/15 Hibernian home matches.
- 1-0, 2-2, 1-2 for Hibs at home. Rangers scored 6 against them.
- 100% wins for Celtic who kept 2 clean sheets in 3 matches.
- Angles. Celtic were reliable last weekend when coming back from behind. They even equalized before halftime.
Kilmarnock v Ross Co - 1.78 Kilmarnock
- 1st goal: Kilmarnock have scored first in 6/9 home matches against promoted teams while top-half promoted teams have conceded first in 50% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Kilmarnock have won 10/16 home matches.
- Only 2 wins for Killy this season but 2 of their 3 defeats came v the big 2 so little to read into early season form.
- They play newly promoted Ross County who beat a red carded Motherwell last match to make it 2 consecutive 2-1 wins. 0-0, 3-0, 1-2 away from home for Ross County.
- Angles? - they were mighty lucky to meet 10 man Motherwell so that Ross win last match is not ultra reliable form. I would look to a positive result from Killy today.
St Mirren v Hearts - 2.14 Hearts
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 St Mirren home matches and they have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams. Hearts have conceded first in 9/10 away matches.
- Both of these sides have just the single win this season. 0-1-0-1-1-0 goals scored by St Mirren this season. Hearts have met 2 of the big 3 away, 3-2, 3-1 defeats then a 1-2 win v Hibs.
- Both teams have scored in all bar one of Hearts matches.
- Angles in? St Mirren must surely be vulnerable if they cannot conjure up that 2nd goal? Hibs have started winning away when they meet other than top 3 teams.
St Johnstone v Motherwell - 2.52 Motherwell
- 1st goal: St Johnstone have conceded first in 8/13 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Motherwell have won 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Motherwell have scored first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- St J. are bottom of the league at the moment. They are yet to win. On the 2 occasions St J. scored 2 goals, they drew only 2-2.
- No clean sheets this season.
- Motherwell look good this season. They lost to Celtic. Motherwell's loss to Ross County saw Motherwell down to 10 men. That was the reason I think behind the defeat. 2 wins in-between those 2 defeats.
- Angles in? I must acknowledge the market here. 2.52 the favourite suggests it's too close to call. But for me, the form is with Motherwell this season. Extenuating circumstances behind their loss last time out and the only other defeat was v Celtic - not unexpected.
Hamilton v Livingston - 2.3 Livingston
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Hamilton AC home matches and in 12/20 Livingston away matches. Livingston have conceded first in 8/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Diddy David Hamilton have just the one win all season. 2-0 v Kilmarnock, 1-3 loss v Motherwell, 0-1 loss v Celtic.
- Only clean sheet came in that win.
- 2 draws, 2 wins, 2 losses for Livingston suggests inconsistency. Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Only clean sheet for Livvy came first match of the season.
- Angles? None really. Which Livvy turns up today? The one who drew twice, won twice or lost twice in a row?
Rangers v Aberdeen - 1.34 Rangers
- Asian handicap: Rangers have won by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches against top half non-Big One teams and they have had W/W double results in 12/20 home matches. Aberdeen have conceded first in 9/15 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.
- Rangers look rosey under Stevie G. All wins bar a loss v Celtic.
- Rangers have had 3 0-0's last 4 matches and we saw plenty of 2nd half goals.
- Aberdeen have only lost v St Mirren away 1-0. 1-0, 0-0, 0-2 away.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for Aberdeen.
- Angles - Aberdeen are yet to play the top 2 this season so nothing to gauge by. I like the 3 recent clean sheets. Aberdeen last year tended to lose to the Big 2.
SPANISH LA LIGA
12:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Valencia (Champions League to come) - 2.42 Ath Bilbao
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 14/17 Ath. Bilbao home matches and in 11/19 Valencia away matches. Valencia have lost 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
- 3/3 wins at home and 3/3 draws away for Bilbao, the most eyecatching result was a 1-0 v Barcelona. Atl Bilbao are yet to concede at home and were impressive mid week albeit only a 1-1 away.
- Valencia have been very muddling this season. Only 1 win came v newly promoted. 2/2 defeats away.
- 2 consecutive score draws came at home.
- Angles? I have been impressed with Bilbao this season and I fear that Valencia are struggling to balance Primeira Liga with Champions League. On that basis, I will side with Bilbao not to lose.
15:00 - Getafe v Barcelona (Champions League to come) - 1.88 Barcelona
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 Getafe home matches and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches. Barcelona have won 16/20 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Getafe lost to Atl Madrid but then 4 score draws and a 4-2 win v Mallorca is not necessarily form that should beat Barcelona.
- 1-0 loss, 2-2, 2-0 loss away for Barcelona this season. Early season was minus Suarez and Messi.
- Barca are scoring for fun at home but struggling away.
- Angles in? 1.81 about Barcelona tells you the market is not fully behind them yet. Getafe best case seems to be score draw. Barca away are poor so far but this poor form cannot continue. Failing to score in 2 matches away is a real anomaly. Look at team news. Messi and Suarez playing?
17:30 - Granada v Leganes - 2.3 Granada
- Leganes are yet to win this season with 4 defeats and 2 1-1 draws. So they are improving.
- Leganes are yet to score that 2nd goal.
- Granada have only lost one match v Sevilla. 3 wins to nil and a draw sees these newcomers having a great time of it in La Liga.
- Angles. The market has priced the match up purely on the basis of Granada's newly promoted status and 'watching brief' having never met Leganes before. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for Granada should make them tough to score 2 goals against.
20:00 - Atletico Madrid (Champions League to come) v Real Madrid (Champions League to come) - 2.42 Atl Madrid
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/18 Real Madrid away matches and +3.5 goals in 7/12 Real Madrid away matches against top-six teams. Atl. Madrid have scored first in 13/16 home matches.
- Madrid derby, pre-Champions League. We are likely to see First Team and no major players rested. The fans won't allow it.
- As to any angles, good luck!
FRENCH LIGUE 1
12:30 - Lyon (Champions League to come) v Nantes - 1.5 Lyon
- 1st half outcome: Lyon have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Nantes away matches against middle-third teams. Nantes have drawn the first half in 9/13 away matches against middle-third teams.
- Lyon started the season brightly with 9 goals in 2 match wins. No win since. No clean sheets since.1-1 and 0-1 at home (0-1 loss to Lyon).
- 3 score draws in 4 matches for Lyon.
- 4 wins in 5 matches for Nantes, 3 of those wins were 1-0 (at home).
- 2-1, 1-2, 2-1 away from home for Nantes.
- Are Lyon struggling to juggle Ligue 1 and Champions League? The market is firmly on their side despite Nantes showing well. Note though that Nantes have 2 2-1 away losses do lay Nantes if they score first?
16:30 - Bordeaux v Paris St-G (Champions League to come) - 1.25 PSG
- 1st goal: Bordeaux have conceded first in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while Paris St-G have won 6/10 away matches against top-six teams. Paris St-G have scored first in 8/10 away matches against top-six teams.
- Bordeaux only lost their opener v Angers. They have scored in all matches. 1-1, 2-0, 2-2 at home.No 0-0 at halftime. 2-3-3 goals before halftime last 3 matches.
- 5 wins and 2 losses for PSG last 7 matches. All wins for PSG saw clean sheets.
- Shock 0-2 loss v Reims latest for PSG mid week. Where did that come from?
- 2-2 and 1-0 loss for Bordeaux v PSG last season.
- Can we trust PSG after that loss mid week?
19:00 kick off
Reims v Dijon - 1.87 Reims
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Reims home matches and -1.5 goals in 4/7 Reims home matches against bottom-six teams. Dijon have lost 13/14 away matches.
- Reims 2 losses this season were 1-0 away. An impressive 0-2 away win v PSG strangled the life out of PSG (who admittedly were without Neymar and Mbappe who would, I think, have scored).
- Interestingly, in all of this, Reims failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Dijon have not won a match this season. They failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Angles? I would side with Reims here but Dijon must(ard) win at some point. No surprise to see a period of 0-0 if that poor Reims scoring habit returns (failed to score 4 of last 6) and Dijon continue to struggle to score.
Nice v Lille (Champions League to come) - 2.56 Nice
- 1st half outcome: Nice have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 6/10 Lille away matches against top-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 14/18 Nice home matches.
- I will leave this match alone. 2.56 the favourite and so early in a tough French Ligue 1.
Metz v Toulouse - 2.24 Metz
- -2.5 goals: Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 55% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Toulouse away matches against promoted teams. There have been +1.5 goals in 8/13 Toulouse away matches against promoted teams.
- Only 2 wins for Metz came v Monaco and St Etienne.
- 3-0 , 0-2, 1-2 at home so far for Metz. Metz are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.
- 2 wins for Toulouse came at home.
- Angles - none that I can see early season. No need to play every match. Unless an angle appears within the in-play stats, leave alone.
Angers v Amiens - 1.83 Angers
- 1st goal: Angers have scored first in 11/15 home matches against bottom-six teams while Amiens have lost 12/20 away matches. Amiens have conceded first in 11/19 away matches.
- Angers are 2nd in the league so far. Solid stuff. 4/4 home wins scoring between 2-4 goals. They only failed to score once.
- The 2 0-0's at halftime they had, they won the matches 2-0.
- Amiens are 2-1 away, 2-0 away, 1-2 win v Metz away. They have kept only one clean sheet and failed to score only once.
- They have scored and conceded on 5 occasions and won only one match.
- Angles? Tough to ignore Angers this early season. If this scoring is sustainable (2+ goals at home) that is a solid foundation for at least not losing this match.
Monaco v Brest - 1.47 Monaco
- Match outcome: Monaco have won 9/13 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have lost 57% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. Middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 57% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
- Newly promoted Brest seem to engender an odds on quote from their opponents.
- Monaco this season have lost to Lyon, Metz and Monaco. 2-2 draws v Nimes and Strasbourg, a 0-0 v Reims and 3-1 win at home in the Cote D'azur derby.
- 5 draws this season for Brest seems them competitive but not really collecting their due rewards. 2 consecutive 2-2 draws v Bordeaux and Lyon saw Brest concede first, and indeed come from behind twice v Lyon.
- 1-3-2 goals conceded away by Brest this season.
- Angles in? The odds look too short here. Monaco's only win was in the Cote D'Azur derby and they have failed to beat 2 newly promoted sides already. Add to that the Brest fight (albeit they have conceded 5 goals in 2 matches). In-play stats here will show us what mood this Monaco side are in. I would have said Lyon were stronger than Monaco and Brest came back twice v Lyon for a 2-2 draw. That may be the value play?
17:30 - VVV Venlo v Heerenveen - 2.5 Heerenveen
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 VVV-Venlo home matches and +3.5 goals in 9/13 Heerenveen away matches. Heerenveen have won 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
- 3-1 win, 1-4 loss v Ajax, 2-1 home win for VVV this season. No draw. No 0-0 at halftime. No clean sheets.
- 0-4 win, 2-0 loss, 4-1 loss away for Heerenveen.
- 3 draws in 4 matches.
- Angles. 2.5 the market suggests it is too tough to call. VVV are scoring and conceding at home. Only loss v Ajax.
18:45 - Ajax (Champions League to come) v FC GRONINGEN - 1.12 Ajax
- HT/FT: Ajax have had W/W double results in 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sittard have lost by two or more goals in 9/12 away matches. Ajax have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- Ajax, at 1.04 odds, failed to score before halftime mid-week but scored 5 goals 2nd half. So note that.
- Ajax are unbeaten. 5-4-5 goals at home set to continue, so says the market.
- Ajax have scored in every match.
- Only 2 wins for Groningen. 0-1, 0-0, 2-1, 3-1 for them away. 2 consecutive defeats.
- Angles In 5 of their last 6 matches, Ajax have scored 4 goals bare minimum. Although they didn't do it mid week, if 0-0 at halftime, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market.
19:45 - Fortuna Sittard v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.96 Sparta Rotterdam
- In 5 matches this season, Fortuna have conceded 3-5 goals. They have yet to win. 1-1, 2-3, 2-3 at home sees Fortuna competitive but not quite getting over the line.
- Sparta are enjoying the Eredivisie. Only losses came v tough sides Ajax and AZ Alkmaar. They scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
- 2-2, 1-2, 2-2, 5-1 for Sparta away.
- Angles. A very strong both teams to score angle.. I like Sparta this season but must note Fortuna have been really competitive. 3-2/2-3 correct score to trade?
PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA
19:00 - Benfica (Champions League to come) v Setabul - 1.16 Benfica
- Asian handicap: Benfica have won by two or more goals in 12/15 home matches while Vitoria FC have lost by two or more goals in 11/16 trips to Big Three teams. Vitoria FC have lost 8/9 away matches against Big Three teams.
- 100% wins bar a loss v Porto for Benfica. 4 clean sheets.If Benfica have a 0-0 at halftime, they scored 2 goals 2nd half.
- Setabul have an obvious habit. 4 0-0's this season.Note though that they lost 4-0 to Porto and that should be your gauge today. You may want to back 0-0 pre-match but Benfica should replicate Porto's score.
TURKISH SUPER LIG
13:00 - Denizlispor v Kasimpasa - 1.99 Denizlispor
- +2.5 goals: Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 57% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 Kasimpasa away matches. Kasimpasa have lost 10/12 away matches.
- A great start to the season for Deniz with 2 2-0 wins but nothing since.
- Only 1 win Kasimpasa came last match.
- Angles? Leaving this one alone. Not enough matches played and 2 mid table sides.
15:30 - Alanyaspor v Sivasspor - 1.79 Alanyaspor
- Match outcome: Alanyaspor have won 7/10 home matches while Sivasspor have lost 7/12 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Sivasspor away matches.
- Top of the league, a new name in Alanyaspor have 4 wins and a draw and a successful trade last weekend when they came from 1-0 down v current bottom of the league.
- 4-1 and 3-1 at home.
- Both teams scored in the last 4 matches.
- Alanyaspor have scored in each match.
- Both teams have scored in Sivasspor's last 4 matches with only 1 win.
- 2-1 and 1-1 away for Sivasspor.
- Angles. Can we trust the new leaders Alanyaspor again? Sivasspor are scoring and conceding and only winning one match.
18:00 - Galatasaray (Champions League to come) v Fenerbahce - 2.14 Galatasary
- Match outcome: Galatasaray have won 8/8 home matches against top-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 7/9 such matches. Fenerbahce have conceded first in 10/14 away matches.
- A very tasty local derby.
- Only 1 loss for both of these sides.
- 1-1 and 1-0 for Galatasary at home.
- Both teams scored in Fenerbahce's last 4 matches. 3-1 loss last away match saw a return to the wobbly unreliable Fenerbahce of last season.
- A 1-2 win v last year's 2nd for Fenerbahce away from home caught the eye.
- Angles? This is one of those massive derbies (like the Madrid derby) and anything could happen.
- 2-2 and 1-1 last season recounts the derby factor here.
16:00 - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg - 1.12 Copenhagen
- Match outcome: Kobenhavn have won 17/20 home matches while Silkeborg have lost by two or more goals in 3/5 away matches. Kobenhavn have won by two or more goals in 7/11 home matches against promoted teams.
FC Copenhagen (2nd)
- 7 wins began the season but 2 defeats and a draw last 3 matches.
- Failed to score last match at home, a 0-0.
- 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- No win this season.
- 2+ goals conceded in every match.
- 3-0, 3-1, 2-2, 2-2, 2-0, away from home. Even when they score 2 goals, they do not win. We profited from this when they took a 0-2 lead v Nordjaelland.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- Not met the top 3 home or away.
- As obvious as the market suggests. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 2+ goals expected of Copenhagen.
- Remember if Silkeborg lead 0-2, they are unlikely, still, to win!!
19:00 - Rosenborg v Brann - 1.57 Rosenborg
- 1st goal: Rosenborg have scored first in 8/8 home matches against top-six teams while Brann have conceded first in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams. Rosenborg have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches.
- 7 consecutive home wins.
- No defeat in 10.
- Scored and conceded last 9 matches.
- 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only home loss v 8th.
- 0-1 win away v Brann earlier this season.
- Only 1 win in 5 matches came away.
- 3 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
- Only 1 away win v the top 8 came v 2nd. Both teams scored away v the top 5.
- Both teams could score here with Rosenborg not losing.