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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 28, 2017

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ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - Man Utd v Tottenham - 2.34 Man Utd - pre Champions League

  • The home side have historically won head to heads.
  • Both sides have Champions League matches coming up.

Man Utd

  • Solitary loss post Champions League. 2 draws this season pre champions League. See a pattern? Mourinho is happy to sacrifice points for Champions League prizes.
  • 4-2-4-4 scored at home in 4 wins.
  • 7 clean sheets.
  • Not met the top 13 at home yet so context to those wins.
  • Famously, United have scored 7 goals in the last 15 mins of home matches.

Tottenham

  • Only loss at home to Chelsea.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Meet Real Madrid next week.
  • Failed to score only once. 2-3-3-4 scored away.
  • Not met the top 6 away.
  • Not conceded a first half goal away.

Conclusions

  • A match muddied by upcoming Champions League matches. It is no coincidence that 2 draws and a loss all have as their root cause pre-or post-Champions League matches for Man Utd.
  • I would look to lay any Man Utd lead on that basis but do note that both teams are Champions League affected today.
  • inplay stats advised today.
  • A draw looks likely. United rarely lose 2 consecutive matches.

15:00 - Arsenal v Swansea - 1.23 Arsenal - Europa League for Arsenal

  • Surely the loss to Watford was not Europa league distractions for the Arsenal?
  • 3-4 goals scored by Arsenal in the last 2 head to heads.

Arsenal

  • 4 consecutive home wins scoring 2 goals at least.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins at home v 12th and lower - Swansea are 15th.
  • Scored first in all home matches.
  • Led at halftime in 3/4 at home.

Swansea

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Loss away.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 0-0 away v 3rd and 10th.

Conclusions

  • Arsenal lost to Watford - was that Europa League distractions? They face the same again today with an upcoming Europa League match next week.
  • On form Arsenal should win. Swansea's 2 0-0's away suggests their game plan.
  • Arsenal are expected to score 2 goals at least but a 0-0 for a while is not a surprise.

15:00 - C Palace v West Ham - 2.48 C Palace

  • London derby and Palace did superbly in their last London derby v Chelsea.
  • New manager for Palace no head to heads for me are irrelevant.

Palace

  • Forget the mid week league cup match. I am sure Woy wants wid of the League Cup to concentrate on Premiership survival.
  • Failed to score in 8 matches.
  • Did score in a 2-1 win at home v Londoners Chelsea.
  • All defeats bar that win.
  • Defending looks to be Woy's priority. They only conceded in the 86th minute against Newcastle.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

West Ham

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played any of the current bottom 5.

Conclusions

  • London Derby.
  • Not a match for me to consider given it is said London Derby and these 2 are in poor form.
  • Woy seems to have made Palace tougher to score against.
  • In-play stats for me here.

15:00 - Liverpool v Huddersfield - 1.25 Liverpool

Liverpool

  • Really poor Liverpool form yet Klopp maintains his job.
  • Only 3 wins, 2 came at home.
  • Losses came away v Man City and Tottenham.
  • 0-0-1-0 conceded at home so a concerted defensive effort although Louvren is on the naughty step.

Huddersfield

  • Only 1 win in 7 was v Man Utd.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away matches though.
  • Failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool strangely enough look a lot more robust at home, albeit the sample is small, only 4 matches.
  • Huddersfield, for all the thunder of their home win v a post Champions League United, failed to score in their last 3 away.
  • If Liverpool do not win this, you feel Klopp of the Kop will be the Flop and end up with a Mop after being handed his P45.
  • A Liverpool win has potential at home but it would take a brave man to trust THAT defence.

15:00 - Watford v Stoke - 2.14 Watford

Watford

  • Top 6 side.
  • Both teams scored in the last 4 matches.
  • Watford have scored 2 goals at least in 7 matches this season.
  • Only Man City and Chelsea have beaten them.

Stoke

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 1-1-2-7 conceded last 4 away.
  • Conceded first in all away.

Conclusions

  • Rarely will you see a long(ish) standing Premiership side NOT favourite early in the season against a newly promoted side.
  • The market likes Watford. Scoring 2 goals regularly, they will be a threat against a Stoke side with only 1 clean sheet.
  • I would have to lay Stoke if Stoke scored first. We normally associate Stoke with being tough to break down but that is not the case this season.

15:00 - West Brom v Man City - 1.27 Man City

  • Man City tend to win head to heads and have conceded in the last 2.

West Brom

  • Only wins first 2 matches of the season were 1-0.
  • 1-1-0-2 scored at home with only 1 win.
  • Not met top 4 yet.
  • Scored first on 3 at home.

Man City

  • All wins bar a 1-1 v Everton.
  • 4 away wins.
  • Scored every match.
  • 7 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • There is talk of City going unbeaten through the season. Certainly possible.
  • It should be another routine afternoon for City.
  • Champions League v Napoli on the 1st November so watch out. 2 goals at least expected of City today and watch for an Aguero goal. He has records to break.

17:30 - Bournemouth v Chelsea - 1.65 Chelsea

  • 3-0 and 1-3 Chelsea in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Tough set of fixtures for Chelsea 25th October, 28th October, 31st October (Champions League.) Will fatigue see them vulnerable?

Bournemouth

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Draw at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • All draws at halftime at home.
  • Lost to all top 6 teams to date. Chelsea are 4th.
  • 4 of 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Chelsea

  • 3 losses v Burnley, Manchester City and Palace. Palace was pre Champions League.
  • 3 wins and a loss away.
  • No 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Chelsea have had 3 2-1 scorelines away. Bournemouth look as if they struggle v top 6 teams and that should be expected today.
  • Champions League for Chelsea on 31st October - look what happened last pre-Champions League match.
  • Bournemouth have had 3 0-0's at halftime at home so if 0-0 at halftime I would expect goals 2nd half.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - AC Milan v Juventus - 1.93 Juventus

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins in head to heads for Juventus.

AC Milan

  • For me this Milan side look vulnerable to the best. Form should confirm my initial feelings.
  • Losses to Lazio, Sampdoria, Roma and Inter Milan bear that out.
  • All defeats v current top 6 saw them conceding 2 goals at least.

Juventus

  • Only loss v Lazio was pre-Champions League. This is another pre-Champions League match.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 matches in a row now.
  • Scored in every match.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 1.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

  • This is clouded by a pre-Champions League weekend. Last time Juve lost it was pre-Champions League (a bit like Man Utd, Juve seem to be prioritising the Champions League).
  • Not a good time therefore to meet a big team in AC Milan. BUT if form is to be played out, Juventus should be winning, and scoring 2 goals. AC Milan do not seem good enough to beat the current top 6.
  • Note that word 'if'. Pre-Champions League can lead to some surprises.

19:45 - Roma v Bologna - 1.24 Roma

  • 2 consecutive 3-0 wins for Roma.

Roma

  • No draw sees all wins bar 2 losses v the current top 2.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 6 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 7 goals scored first half at home.
  • Scored first in 4 home matches and led at halftime in 4 home matches.

Bologna

  • 2 consecutive losses.
  • No away draw.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away but no 0-0's at fulltime away.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side.

Conclusions

  • Will there be a 0-0 at halftime again in a Bologna away match? If so, then expect 2nd half goals.
  • Bologna should not be winning today. Roma have a Champions League match coming up and Bologna could be stubborn today.
  • This is attack v defence it seems. Roma tend to score 1st half.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Heracles v VVV - 2.44 Heracles

  • 1-1 and 0-2 Heracles last 2 head to heads.

Heracles

  • Only 2 wins at home were 2-1.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar the last match.
  • No clean sheet.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

VVV

  • Unbeaten away from home. Scored and conceded in 3/4 away.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league (Heracles are).
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today.
  • I would not expect a 0-0. 100% over 1.5 goals VVV.
  • Heracles tend to score 2nd half.
  • I cannot pick between the teams.

17:30 - Roda JC v Feyenoord - 1.33 Feyenoord

  • 7 goals to no reply for Feyenoord in the last 2 head to heads.

Roda

  • No draw sees the only 2 wins came in the last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Conceded 2-4 goals v top 4 teams, Feyenoord are 5th.

Feyenoord

  • Champions League for Feyenoord up coming.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2 defeats came v top 2 teams, Roda are bottom.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord have a Champions League match up coming and may under perform. They are in poor form currently but let's face it, 2 defeats have come v the current top 2, and they have 3 wins in 4 away.
  • ON FORM!! - Assuming no pre Champions League under performance - Feyenoord should score first in the first half.
  • Roda should conceded 2-4 goals today if, again, form is true.

19:45 - Willem II v Ajax - 1.27 Ajax

  • A shock 1-2 Willem II win 2 matches ago is not the norm.

Willem II

  • No draw.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 6 at home but all losses v 11th and higher.

Ajax

  • 6 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • 4 goals scored in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Not conceded a first half goal away.

Conclusions

  • Ajax are in a 4 goal mood at the moment.
  • With no european competition distraction, Ajax should win today and score 2 goals at least.
  • Beware. Willem II might get a goal, they are scoring and conceding, but note that they have lost all matches v top 11 sides this season.
  • With Ajax yet to concede first half away, they look the likeliest first goalscorers first half.

19:45 - Zwolle v ADO Den Haag - 1.68 Zwolle

  • 3 2-1 wins in 4 consecutive head to heads for Zwolle.

Zwolle

  • Only 1 loss was v Ajax.
  • All wins at home scoring 2 goals minimum.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not met the top 11 at home and play current 8th.

ADO

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Not met top 4 away yet.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Zwolle love meeting ADO and tend to score 2 goals in wins.
  • Zwolle are in decent nick having only lost to Ajax. They have yet to meet top 11 sides yet.
  • ADO are on a decent run with 3 consecutive away wins but lost v 6th and 7th.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Hearts v Rangers - 1.98 Rangers

  • 2-1 Rangers and 0-0 the last time these 2 met.

Hearts

  • Only 2 home games played 0-0 and 1-0 win so little home form to work with.
  • All wins this season v 6th and lower.

Rangers

  • All wins bar a 2-2 away for Rangers, scoring 2+ goals in every away match.

Conclusions

  • A match muddied really by a lack of home fixtures for hearts. It becomes difficult to read their home set up after playing only 2 matches.
  • Rangers tend to score 2 away and of course if keeping that up are in the driving seat. 2 clean sheets in 2 at home for Hearts.

15:00 - Aberdeen v Ross Co - 1.4 Aberdeen

  • 3 consecutive Aberdeen wins in head to heads.

Aberdeen

  • Only loss was v Celtic.
  • 2-2-1-3 goals scored at home.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 4/5 at home.
  • Led at halftime at home.

Ross County

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 0-2 and 0-0 last 2 away matches.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league (Aberdeen are 2nd).

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen should outscore Ross County today. Ross tend not to beat any team above them in the league. Enter the match expecting that pattern to continue.
  • Ross have improved last 2 away matches but Aberdeen tend to score 2+ goals.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Celtic v Kilmarnock - 1.16 Celtic

  • Celtic dismantled Aberdeen (2nd in the league) away from home so this should be a simple task.
  • win to nil expected of Celtic who have had only 1-0 or 2-0 wins v bottom 3.
  • 1.16 looks a bit short for Celtic and this is pre-Champions League. They don't seem to be affected though by the 'curse'.
  • The market expects 3/4 goals. Killy have drawn 1-1 away v Aberdeen and Rangers but as I say, Celtic smashed Aberdeen and are a level above.

15:00 - Dundee v Hamilton - 2.06 Dundee

  • Hamilton have won the last 3 head to heads without conceding.

Dundee

  • Both teams scored in 4 of 5 home matches.
  • 2 home wins in their last 3 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Hamilton won 3-0 earlier this season.

Hamilton

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches and then suddenly a 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today although Hamilton did have a 0-0 last match.
  • Hamilton tend to win v Dundee.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • 2 teams I have no strong opinion on.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

12:00 - Alaves v Valencia - 1.7 Valencia

  • 2-1 Valencia and 2-1 Alaves in the last 2 head to heads.

Alaves

  • All defeats bar a single win.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 at home.
  • Failed to score in all bar 2 matches.
  • Valencia are 2nd. Alaves have conceded 2 goals in defeat v 1st and 3rd.

Valencia

  • Undefeated.
  • 5 consecutive wins scoring 3+ goals in each.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

  • The odds look rather high for Valencia.
  • No european distractions for them. Scoring an absolute shed load. Meets a team failing to score in 3/4.
  • What gives? Valencia playing with clown shoes?
  • On form you'd expect a merciless win from Valencia.
  • In the expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Atletico Madrid v Villarreal - 1.56 Atl Madrid

  • Villareal are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads. Interesting!
  • Champions League for Madrid this week.
  • Europa League for Villareal this week.

Atl Madrid

  • Unbeaten.
  • 2 draws in 3 matches.
  • 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 at home.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 3 draws v top 5 this season, 2 were 0-0 away.

Villareal

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 draw.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Not played the top 5 yet (Atl Madrid are 4th).
  • Losses away v 9th, 12th and 14th.

Conclusions

  • Do remember this is pre European competition for both teams.
  • Villareal have yet to meet the top 5 but have lost v top 14 teams away which suggests struggles today if Madrid are not distracted.
  • Do note the solid head to head record for Villareal. Value seekers may seek to lay Madrid if Madrid scores first.
  • Madrid are not setting the world on fire at home so this should be a tight match.
  • On form, Madrid should remain unbeaten. 0-0 would not surprise.

19:45 - Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona - 1.51 Barcelona

  • Ath won 0-1 in August 2016 but that is not the norm in head to heads.

Ath Bilbao

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came at home.
  • 3 of 4 losses v the current top 5.
  • Europa League upcoming.

Barcelona

  • Champions League match upcoming.
  • All wins bar a 1-1 v Atl Madrid.
  • 2-2-3-1 goals scored away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League but Barcelona do not tend to be affected.
  • We should expect 2 goals in total.
  • If Barcelona have not scored by halftime they should score 2nd half.
  • Ath Bilbao are losing v top 5.

21:30 - Sevilla v Leganes - 1.63 Sevilla

  • 2-3 Sevilla in the last head to head in the top flight.

Sevilla

  • 3 losses in 4 matches and the only 3 losses of the season - they were all away from home.
  • Draw, Win Win Win at home conceding 1-0-0-0 so robust enough at home.
  • All defeats v 14th and lower.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leganes

  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches and 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals match.
  • 6 consecutive 0-0's at halftime saw 2 0-0's fulltime come out of that.
  • Not played the top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have a strong defensive bent.
  • Leganes are building up a strong reputation for not conceding but noticeably they have yet to meet any top 10 teams - well one at home was a 0-0.
  • Could this be the day that Sevilla break that clean sheet sequence. Any Sevilla win you feel could be a 1-0 today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hannover v Dortmund - 1.58 Dortmund

  • 3 consecutive head to head Dortmund wins.
  • Champions League on the 1st November for Dortmund.

Hannover

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Not met the top 4 (Dortmund are 1st).
  • All draws at halftime at home.

Dortmund

  • Top of the league despite no win in 2 matches (2-3 and 2-2). May be Champions League affected performances.
  • In 4 of 5 away, Dortmund have scored 2 goals at least. A 0-0 away v Freiburg was.......another pre Champions League performance.
  • That was the solitary 0-0 at halftime.
  • With Hannover currently 6th, Dortmund's 2-2 and 2-3 loss came v 3rd and 7th. Are they vulnerable today?
  • Scored first in 4/5 away and led at halftime in 4/5 away. The exception - that Freiburg 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Dortmund are clearly a team affected by the Champions League (a bit like Man Utd if you check their pre-Champions League results) so this has to be factored in today.
  • ON FORM, Dortmund should be scoring 2 goals at least today setting themselves up for a possible win.
  • ON PRE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM, 0-0 v 10 men, 2-3 loss and 2-2 (post Champions League) suggests vulnerability for Dortmund and no surprises were Hannover to get on the scoresheet.
  • ON FORM, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Hamburg - 1.9 Hertha Berlin

  • The home side has won the last 4 head to heads.

Hertha Berlin

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came 1st match.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime in 4 matches but no 0-0 at fulltime.
  • Wins v 9th, 13th and 17th at home enough to suggest a good performance v 16th?
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Hamburg

  • 6 losses and a 0-0 last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of 7 matches.

Conclusions

  • Not sure if I am missing anything here. Hamburg look very poor and surely it is advantage Hertha Berlin with 2 wins and a draw v bottom half sides at home.
  • Lay any late 0-0. We might see 0-0 if Hertha cannot score. We know Hamburg are currently hopeless.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Mgladbach - 2.12 Hoffenheim

  • 1-1 and 5-3 Hoff in the last 2 head to heads.

Hoffenheim

  • Only 1 loss was a 3-2.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 1-2-1-2-2 scored at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not conceded at home first half.

Mgladbach

  • Draw draw loss win away.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Conceded 2 goals in 3 of 4 aways.

Conclusions

  • Europa League for Hoffenheim.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score.
  • Hoff are scoring regularly and at their best should score 2 goals. Mgladbach are scoring too and I would be keener to lay Mgladbach if Mgladbach scored first.

14:30 - Leverkusen v FC Koln - 1.31 Leverkusen

  • 1-1 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Leverkusen

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2-4-3-2 goals scored at home.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 1.
  • 2-2, 4-0, 3-0 at home v 14th, 15th and 16th and play 18th (bottom) today.
  • Scored first in all home matches and led at halftime in 3/4 at home.

FC Koln

  • Not won.
  • Failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
  • 0-0-0-0-1 goals scored away.

Conclusions

  • The odds are right here. Koln are poor up front, Leverkusen are scoring easily at home. 2-4 goals expected if Leverkusen are on form today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Schalke v Wolfsburg - 1.8 Schalke

  • 3 consecutive Schalke wins in head to heads.

Schalke

  • Win Win, Loss, Draw, Win at home.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins.
  • All 3 defeats home and away v top 6 teams.
  • Won all matches home and away v 11th and lower and play 14th today.

Wolfsburg

  • 6 score draws in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 consecutive away 2-2 scorelines.

Conclusions

  • Lay the late score draw. Surely? Wolfsburg cannot score draw for ever.
  • Their score drawing suggests laying the Wolf if they score first.
  • Schalke are favoured anyway given they have only lost to top 6 sides.

17:30 - Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig - 1.36 Bayern Munich

  • 3-0 Bayern and 4-5 Bayern in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Both sides are pre-Champions League sides.

Bayern Munich

  • Only 1 defeat away v Hoffenheim.
  • 2 goals at least scored in each home match.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 2-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 8 at home. Leipzig are 3rd.

Leipzig

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 2 losses came away from home.
  • 3 wins in 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Bayern are one of those teams who under-perform pre-Champions League. They meet fellow Champions League sides.
  • Bayern are good at home but will they rest some key players? They actually lead 2-0 at home so far this season.
  • We should expect a Bayern lead and a Bayern lead at halftime.