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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 28, 2017

The new Betfair website is a burden for someone like me. Gone are the day-long in-play coupons. Gone is my ability to cut and paste the matches and odds with ease! I can hear the violins playing at my despair!
I will do a live chat today at 14:30 for the German Bundesliga. Turn up at 14:45 if you want to give the matches some time to get going. It's Cup day predominantly in England so Motty will have his sheepskin on - Liverpool have been on a really poor run of late. Surely not another cup 0-0? Italian Seria A and Spanish La Liga also appeal later on. There may have been other leagues which I have missed (blame Betfair! - I will get used to the new site I am sure, in time!).

12:00 - Villarreal v Granada - 1.4 Villareal

  • 1-0 ViIIareaI and 1-1 in the Iast 2 Head to Heads.

ViIIareaI 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both HaIves.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

ViIIareaI other stats

  • OnIy 4 defeats.
  • OnIy 2 0-0's at HaIftime at home.
  • 2 defeats at home.
  • 7 of 8 goaIs conceded at home came first haIf.

Granada 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • AII defeats away v top 12 teams.
  • Scored in aII away matches outside of the top 3.

Granada other stats

  • OnIy 1 win.
  • OnIy 1 cIean sheet.

ConcIusions

  • ViIIareaI shouId not be Iosing this match.
  • Both teams couId score and ViIIareaI not Iose so this Iooks a naturaI for us to Iay Granada shouId Granada Score first.
  • Granada couId score first haIf statisticaIIy and not win in 90 mins. Let's hope that they score first - possibIe haIftime Iay.

12:30 - Motherwell v Rangers - 1.67 Rangers

  • Rangers have won the last 3 head to heads, scoring 2 goals on each occasion.
  • This is the Scottish Premier League. Rangers seem to be playing for 2nd place.

Motherwell 100% stats

  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Motherwell other stats

  • Only 5 wins all season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches including a 3-4 v Celtic.
  • 14 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Motherwell have lost every match v top 4 teams and scored and conceded in defeat at home to all top 5 teams played so far.

Rangers 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • All away wins were by 1 goal.
  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Rangers other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 90% over 1.5 goals away.
  • Both teams scored in 80% of away matches.
  • All 3 away defeats came v top 4 teams.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. 1-2 looks a natural correct score if Rangers are to win. We should expect 2 goals at least.
  • Motherwell might keep it tight until the 2nd half but are highly likely to concede so watch out if they keep a first half clean sheet.

14:30 - Ingolstadt v Hamburg - 2.2 Ingolstadt

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
  • This is the German Bundesliga.

Ingolstadt 100% stats

  • 2nd bottom of the league.
  • No 0-0.
  • Yet to play bottom 5 at home (where Ingolstadt and Hamburg reside).
  • Defeats at home were by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No home matches with exactly 4 goals.
  • Have not scored an equaliser at home.

Ingolstadt other stats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win v 2nd.

Hamburg 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Hamburg other stats

  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late 1-1 in the hope this sequence ends from the head to heads.
  • Both teams do not tend to keep clean sheets. They are meeting lesser opposition today and hamburg have shown they can get something from the bottom sides.
  • But only one home win plays only 1 away win.
  • 2 teams I cannot get excited about.

14:30 - SV Darmstadt v FC Koln - 2.18 KoIn

  • Darmstadt are bottom of the German BundesIiga.

Darmstadt 100% stats

  • 100% of points earned at home.
  • No over 4.5 goaI matches at home. No home match with exacIy 3 goaIs.

Darmstadt other stats

  • OnIy 2 cIean sheets.
  • FaiIed to score in their Iast 5 matches.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at haIftime at home.
  • Lost 2-0 to KoIn this season.
  • 9 of 10 goaIs conceded at home came 2nd haIf.

KoIn 100% stats

  • Not Iost a match v teams beIow them in the Ieague.
  • Not won to niI away.
  • Never Ied at haIftime away.

KoIn other stats

  • 5 draws in their Iast 6 matches.
  • 3 1-1 draws in their Iast 4 matches.
  • 8 of 11 goaIs conceded away came 1st haIf.

ConcIusions

  • If Darmstadt are to win points, it is IikeIy to be at home but they face a KoIn side yet to Iose home and away v teams beIow them in the Ieague.
  • Enough to side with KoIn here? A draw is certainIy possibIe but I wouId personaIIy Iay the Iate draw here and hope KoIn end their draw sequence.
  • Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at haIftime. Darmstadt tend to do a 'SunderIand'. Keep it tight then concede 2nd haIf.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Hoffenheim - 1.81 Leipzig

  • This is 2nd v 3rd in the German Bundesliga. Only Leipzig are in the position to battle Bayern Munich for the title.

Leipzig 100% stats

  • No defeat at home.
  • Undefeated at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match this season.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • Scored first in every home match.

Leipzig other stats

  • Only 2 defeats came away in the last 2 matches.
  • Those were the only 2 matches in which Leipzig failed to score.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • Unbeaten.
  • All score draws v top 4.
  • Not conceded in the both halves away.
  • Have been able to equalise in all matches where they have needed to away.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Hoffenheim are more likely to end their unbeaten streak v a top 2 side. The market has interestedly inserted Leipzig as odds on favourite today.
  • Leipzig tend to score first. Will they score first today? Leipzig have not conceded 2 goals at home yet so if they score they will be confident of getting something. Hoffenheim did draw 1-1 away at Bayern Munich.
  • Ordinarily we expect a goal before halftime with Hoffenheim.
  • This is another tough Bundesliga match as a case can be made for either side. I do like trying to find a trading angle into matches but there is not a strong angle here today.

15:00 - Liverpool v Wolves - 1.27 Liverpool

  • This is the FA Cup and I got the feeIing with the Ieague cup that LiverpooI were kind of 'no worries' if they were knocked out. The team they put out against PIymouth in the FA Cup aIso suggests that this competition is not a priority. This makes any form research I do difficuIt to have faith in 100%.

LiverpooI overaII stats

  • OnIy 1 win in 7 matches was that 0-1 v PIymouth.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats and no win in 3 at home. A negative sequence I am sure they wouId Iike to see end.

LiverpooI FA Cup stats

  • OnIy 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 matches sees 4 draws.
  • 4 0-0's in their Iast 5 home matches.
  • 6 consecutive home cIean sheets.

WoIves overaII form

  • 3 defeats in 10 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away cIean sheets ended with the concession of 3 goaIs.

WoIves FA Cup form

  • OnIy 2 wins in 14 matches reaches back to 2010.
  • Did beat Stoke 0-2 Iast match.
  • 0-0-1-0-0-2 goaIs scored in the Iast 6 away matches.

ConcIusions

  • A poor run for Liverpool coincides with League cup and FA Cup engagements. What is noticeabIe is the number of cIean sheets LiverpooI have at home but they aIso Iike 0-0's!
  • I wouId personaIIy expect any time to want to end a run of 3 at home without a win and 2 consecutive defeats at home. Look out for that if WoIves take the Iead.
  • Back 0-0 pre match? It might give us a run for our money.

15:00 - Tottenham v Wycombe - 1.17 Tottenham

  • Faith in the odds today for this FA Cup match. Tottenham beat Aston Villa 2-0 with 2 second half goals. Wycombe lost 2-0 to Aston Villa in the Fa Cup back in 2016.
  • We should see a home win. There might be team changes and for me team changes could change the outlook for the match. Remember Liverpool were similar odds v Plymouth but struggled as they put out a second string side.
  • All things being equal, Tottenham should score 3/4 goals today.

15:00 - Preston v Ipswich - 1.95 Preston

  • This is an English Championship match.
  • Both sides are in mid-table.

Preston 100% stats

  • None.

Preston other stats

  • Only 3 losses in 19 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 of 19 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • All home defeats came v teams above them in the league. Ipswich are below them in the league.

Ipswich 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.
  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Ipswich other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet in 14 matches.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches and last 7 away.
  • 11 of 13 scorelines at halftime either 1-0 or 0-0.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Preston are the form side coming into this match. They are highly likely to score so lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay Ipswich if Ipswich score first - only 1 clean sheet in 14 matches.
  • If Ipswich score first and early, lay them in the halftime market. You might want to back Preston halftime if you see that 7 Ipswich scorelines at halftime have been 1-0 defeats.

15:00 - St Johnstone v Hamilton - 1.65 St Johnstone

  • 0-0 and 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met in head to heads.
  • Diddy David Hamilton are 2nd bottom in the Scottish premier League with St Johnstone a creditable 5th.

St Johnstone 100% stats

  • No home match with exactly 4 goals in total.

St Johnstone other stats

  • Mixed home form. Wins v 4th, 8th and 12th. Play 11th today, a team they drew 1-1 with earlier this season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hamilton 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • All away defeats by 1 or 2 goals.
  • Opponents have equalised in all matches away where they had to.

Hamilton other stats

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • No win in 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 10 away matches without winning.

Conclusions

  • This is more about Hamilton's poor away form rather than any heroics from St Johnstone. Both teams could score today with Hamilton not winning.
  • Lay Hamilton if Hamilton score first.
  • Note the strong 2nd half scoring bias for St Johnstone so if 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime, fear not!
  • I must add a caveat that I think St Johnstone's form is not that good. As I said above, it's more about how poor Hamilton are away.

15:15 - Alaves v Atletico Madrid - 1.66 Atl Madrid

Alaves 100% stats

  • No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Alaves other stats

  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only played 2 of the top 9 at home, losing both matches.
  • 6 of 7 2nd half goals conceded at home came in the last 15 mins of matches.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away outside of the top 7 teams (Alaves are 12th).
  • All clean sheets away v teams outside of the top 8.
  • No over 4.5 goals away.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Atl Madrid have a chance here of winning to nil of they can keep their away record v teams outside the top 8 in tact.
  • It may well be 0-0 at halftime but I would expect 2nd half goals. Consideration for a correct score punt if 0-0 at halftime . 0-2 or 1-2 sounds interesting.
  • If you want to chance it, back 0-0 pre match and hope the 2nd half goals bias is as strong as it has been.

16:00 - Lyon v Lille - 1.49 Lyon

  • 0-0, 1-0 Lille and 0-1 Lyon in the last 3 head to heads in French Ligue 1.
  • Lyon are 4th but losing touch with the top 3.

Lyon 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Lyon other stats

  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 8 wins in their last 10 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • 7 1-0 leads at halftime.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lille 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal in an away match v a top 15 side.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.
  • No away match with exactly 3 goals in total.

Lille other stats

  • Only 1 loss in their last 8 matches. 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 10 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With Lille unable to get that 2nd goal away from home, lay them if they score first.
  • Fear not a 0-0 at halftime, the floodgates open 2nd half for Lille away.
  • It should be either 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime. With Lyon not yet having a 0-0 at halftime at home, default to 1-0?

17:30 - Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich - 1.23 Bayern

  • I am not going to go in depth here suffice to say that Werder Bremen are a both teams to score juggernaut. Not even a red card could halt them scoring against Dortmund.
  • We should expect a Bayern win. Werder are highly likely to score as they tend to do. Let's hope they score first.
  • As is normal with Werder Bremen, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Leverkusen v Mgladbach - 1.87 Leverkusen

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 home wins for Mgladbach in head to heads.
  • This is the German Bundesliga.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • All wins by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No 1-0 or 0 at home.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 12 of the last 13 matches saw at least a goal before halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.

Mgladbach 100% stats

  • No away wins.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Mgladbach other stats

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • All defeats bar a single draw away v top 13 sides.
  • Only 3 goals scored away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today with Mgladbach not winning, despite 2 consecutive 2-1 wins in head to heads.
  • Mgladbach are poor away from home.
  • Do expect a goal from Leverkusen. They have only failed to score twice.

19:45 - Lazio v Chievo - 1.55 Lazio

  • Lazio are a top 4 team in Italian Seria A.

Lazio 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams beIow them in the League (Lazio are 4th).
  • Scored and conceded at home between 6th-15th at home. Chievo are 13th.
  • Not conceded in both haIves at home.

Lazio other stats

  • OnIy 5 cIean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at haIftime at home.
  • Scored in aII home matches v teams beIow them in the Ieague.

Chievo 100% stats

  • AII defeats away to top 9 teams.
  • No over 4.5 goaIs matches away.

Chievo other stats

  • 4 consecutive defeats.

ConcIusions

  • Lazio are IikeIy to score and couId score 2/3 goaIs today. They couId score and concede and Not Iose.
  • I wouId Iay Chievo if Chievo score first.

19:45 - Inter v Pescara - 1.23 Inter

  • Pescara are bottom of the ItaIian Seria A.

Inter 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Scored in aII home matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goaIs at home.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Inter other stats

  • FaiIed to score in onIy 3 matches.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their Iast 10 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at haIftime at home (50% of matches).
  • 16 of 22 goaIs scored at home came 2nd haIf.

Pescara 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • 5 0-0'sat haIftime away (50%).
  • Have Iost away to aII top 7 teams, Inter are 5th.
  • AII goaIs scored 2nd haIf.
  • Never scored first.
  • Never Ied at haIftime away.

Pescara other stats

  • 14 of 20 goaIs conceded away came 2nd haIf.
  • OnIy one win.
  • OnIy 2 cIean sheets.
  • Conceded 3 goaIs or more in 5 of their Iast 8 matches.
  • Conceded 3 goaIs away v top 4 teams.

ConcIusions

  • Stats wise, Inter shouId be winning and scoring 3 goaIs at Ieast. We may not see first haIf goaIs but shouId certainIy see 2nd haIf goaIs.
  • I wouId expect a minimum of 2 goaIs today.Inter shouId score first and win so unIikeIy we wiII see a trade.