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It looks like a readable day today. I have done a video at DRT Facebook. I hope you can hear it. I think it was cut short so I will try and do another video, but my work for WRWM takes priority. Do watch out for 'new manager syndrome' will some of the Premier League sides!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Brighton v Bournemouth - 1.83 Brighton

  • 1st half outcome: Brighton have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 14/20 Brighton home matches. Bournemouth have conceded first in 13/20 away matches.

Brighton - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 8 came v Arsenal.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 matches with just that one win.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 8 matches and last 3 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (56%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v 8th and lower.

Bournemouth - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches were 1-0 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals only once in 12 matches....hence the poor run because they have conceded in 7/8 matches recently.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It seems that Bournemouth find teams 13th and lower easier to cope with. Is this enough to expect the Cherries to reverse this dire winless form? Brighton have conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • But then Brighton have only 1 loss at home v 8th and lower. So....this may be an occasion where Bournemouth could end this poor winless run but I would need to look at the in-play stats given Bournemouth's poor scoring record recently.

15:00 - Newcastle v Everton - 2.25 Everton

  • 1st half outcome: Newcastle have drawn the first half in 8/10 home matches as have Everton in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Everton have lost 10/13 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • New manager Ancelloti for Everton so I don't think research is warranted here. Under Ancelloti we are yet to see Everton away. At home 0-0 v Arsenal and 1-0 v Burnley suggests a pattern. Tighten that fecking defence?
  • Newcastle home matches are very important. They are unbeaten in 8 at home and have scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Newcastle have 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Angles? Sorry, I'm out. IF (and there are a few ifs here) Everton continue to be defensively stout you might want to risk backing 0-0 pre-match because we know Newcastle are tough to score against at home. If Newcastle continue to concede 1 goal maximum at home, this may compound a goal-shy match.

15:00 - Southampton v Crystal Palace - 2.00 Southampton

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 Southampton home matches against middle-third teams and in 11/20 C Palace away matches. C Palace have scored first in 10/18 away matches.

Southampton - 14th

  • 2 wins, 2 losses, then 2 wins.
  • 4 losses, 2 wins, a loss last 7 matches.
  • Saints fans are getting a glimmer of hope with these 4 wins in 6 matches and an unexpected 0-2 win away at Chelsea.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents have led at halftime in 8/9 at home.
  • 2 home wins came v the bottom 2, and recently.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 17.

Crystal Palace - 9th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 0-0-1 goals conceded last 3 away.
  • 8 0-0's in their last 9 matches at halftime.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. 2-2-2-0 goals scored in the away matches v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Palace come alive v 11th and lower, even scoring 2 goals a game. Add that to the fact Saints have trouble scoring 2 goals at home v 17th and higher, we may see Palace get the best here. But then, how do we explain a 0-2 away win for Southampton v Chelsea? That was quite a result and a run of 2 consecutive wins. 2 recent wins at home were 2-1 albeit v the bottom 2 in the league. Saints are on the cusp of putting together a good run but it is hard to dismiss that Palace form v 11th and lower.

15:00 - Watford v Aston Villa - 1.95 Watford

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Watford home matches and in 7/9 Aston Villa away matches. Aston Villa have lost 7/9 away matches.
  • 2 newly promoted sides - a 2nd consecutive match for Villa v newly promoted Norwich and Villa got the 1-0 win there.

Watford - 19th

  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • But under Nigel Pearson, Watford lost 0-2 v Liverpool, beat Man Utd 2-0 at home and drew 1-1 with Sheffield United. These are the only 3 matches we can really work with. The Sheffield United match saw Sheffield United dominating the match. Is this a concern for Pearson? They did keep Sheff Utd to a single goal.

Aston Villa - 18th

  • 4 losses and a 1-0 win last 5 matches.
  • 4 losses and a 2-2 draw last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away.
  • Not played Watford yet, but 2/2 wins v Norwich (another newly promoted side).
  • 16 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • New manager for Watford clouds my research here. Pearson had a tough start v Liverpool but beat Man Utd and drew v Sheff Utd. Aston Villa are 2/2 v newly promoted Norwich but are conceding 2+ goals too regularly.
  • Watching brief I'm afraid here.

17:30 - Norwich v Tottenham Hotspur - 1.55 Tottenham

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Norwich home matches and in 8/10 Spurs away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/9 Norwich home matches.

Norwich - 20th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches, 3 of those losses were 2-1.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 home matches. Not a stat you want to take into an encounter with this Spuds side.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-3-2-3-2 goals conceded at home v the top 8.
  • Scored in every match v the top 11 3-2-1-1-1-3-2 goals.

Tottenham - 5th

  • WWLWWLW (W=Win, L=Loss) under Mourinho, scoring 3-3-1-5-2-0-2 goals.
  • In their last 2 matches, Tottenham have been losing at halftime.
  • 2+ goals scored outside of the top 10 under Mourinho.
  • Mourinho has not had a 0-0 at halftime for the Spurs.
  • Both teams have scored under Mourinho away.

Conclusions

  • Under Mourinho, Tottenham are scoring and conceding away from home and under Mourinho, Tottenham are scoring 2+ goals outside the top 10. This is a solid foundation to work with today. Note that Norwich have scored in every match v the top 11, but Tottenham may do as they did last match, concede first but win. Tottenham have lost at halftime the last 2 matches. Norwich are simply conceding 2 goals at home which should be music to Mourinho's ears.
  • An argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - West Ham v Leicester - 1.70 Leicester

  • Match outcome: Leicester have won 8/11 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/10 such matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/20 West Ham home matches.

West Ham - 17th

  • Only 2 wins since 28th September 2019.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 2 yet but lost 0-5 v 3rd and 2-3 v 5th at home.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leicester City - 2nd

  • Only 4 defeats. 2 consecutive defeats v Man City and Liverpool.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All wins home and away v 9th - 19th.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal outside of the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Leicester have yet to concede that 2nd goal v teams outside of the top 4. I think this is an ideal opportunity to end this 2 match losing run. West Ham have lost 4/5 at home. West Ham conceded 8 goals in 2 defeats at home v the top 5 which does not augur well today.
  • Possibility to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If West Ham score first, lay them. Statistically unlikely to score that 2nd goal and Leicester have failed to score in only 3 matches.

19:45 - Burnley v Man Utd - 1.95 Man Utd

  • 1st goal: Man Utd have scored first in 12/19 away matches and they have won the first half in 9/17 away matches. Burnley have lost 6/8 home matches against top-half teams.

Burnley - 12th

  • 2 1-0 wins in their last 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • No draw in 12 and in 9 at home.
  • All home defeats v the top 9.
  • Have lost home and away v the top 6.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Man Utd - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came away v Watford. A big surprise.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 14 and last 9 away.
  • Poor away from. lost to 10th, 16th, 17th, 19th, all without scoring. Only 2 away wins v 3rd and 20th.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Interesting this Man Utd side are poor away from home, losses v 10th and lower. Note that their losses came without scoring so if Burnley can keep a clean sheet, then Burnley may nick the win. BUT then Burnley have all home defeats v the top 9.
  • Watching brief via the in-play stats simply because this away form for Man Utd is so poor. But they do have a forward line who can be compelling.

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Ayr United v Queen of the South - 2.00 Ayr

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Ayr home matches against middle-third teams and -1.5 goals in 5/8 Ayr such matches. Q of South have conceded first in 10/12 away matches against top-half teams.

Ayr United - 3rd

  • Only 1 draw.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 6 at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 6/9.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 1-0 win and 3-1 loss for Ayr v QOTS this season.

QOTS - 6th

  • LWLWLW (L=Loss, W=Win) recently.
  • Conceded last 4 away.
  • 3/3 losses to nil v the top 3 away.

Conclusions

  • QOTS look inconsistent. I don't like inconsistent but away this season they have lost to nil v the top 3. Enough to expect same today? Ayr are conceding though.

15:00 - Dunfermline v Alloa - 1.47 Dunfermline

  • 1st goal: Dunfermline have scored first in 11/18 home matches while Alloa have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Alloa away matches against middle-third teams.

Dunfermline - 5th

  • 3 wins and 2 losses last 5 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • 1-1 and 2-1 loss for Dunfermline v Alloa this season.

Alloa - 10th

  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • 3 losses and a draw away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Dunfermline have not beaten Alloa this season. But if Dunfermline can score 2+ goals as they have done in their last 5 then they could come out of this match without losing.

15:00 - Inverness v Arbroath - 1.67 Inverness

  • 1st goal: Inverness CT have scored first in 12/20 home matches while Arbroath have lost 6/9 away matches. Inverness CT have won 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

Inverness - 2nd

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Arbroath - 7th

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 7 away.
  • Only away wins v 9th and 10th.
  • Beat Inverness 3-0 and home, lost 2-1 away.

Conclusions

  • 4 wins in 5 matches plays no win in 5 matches. Inverness to be favoured here. Only 1 win in 7 away for Arbroath.

15:00 - Greenock Morton v Partick Thistle - 2.45 Partick

  • 1st half outcome: Morton have drawn the first half in 11/14 home matches against bottom-half teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 14/20 Morton such matches. Partick Th. have conceded first in 7/10 away matches.
  • 8th and 9th in the league of only 10 teams.
  • Both sides have only 5 wins all season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets plays no clean sheets.
  • Morton have scored in their last 8 at home.
  • Morton have scored 2/3rd of their home goals 2nd half. Partick have scored 79% of their away goals 2nd half.
  • Morton look solid at home.3/3 wins v 7th and lower and unbeaten at home v 4th and lower.
  • 3-2 home win and 2-1 away loss v Partick this season.
  • Partick away are surprisingly good.Beat 2nd, 4th, and 6th away. Both teams scored in all bar 1 match away.
  • Angles? Too tough to call. I was going to side with Morton until that Partick away form caught me unawares!

ISRAEL LIGAT Ha-AL

  • I cannot see these leagues on the Betfair In-play coupon for today (at time of researching) I hope they are added.

13:00 - Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Saba - 1.22 Tel Aviv

  • Asian handicap: Maccabi Tel Aviv have won by two or more goals in 8/13 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have won 10/14 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 5/8 H Kfar Saba away matches.

Maccabi Tel Aviv - 1st

  • Only conceded 1 goal, 2 matches ago. 0-3 win latest and I did flag up a correct score win to nil....I hope you played.
  • 2 consecutive home draws signs of a drop in form despite remaining unbeaten.
  • Not played 9th-13th at home but have beaten them all, to nil, away. A simple gauge?

Hapoel Saba/Kfar - 11th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • All defeats v the top 4 home and away. If they are losing at home v the top 3 without scoring then we an assume without home advantage, that they will equally struggle.

Conclusions

  • Gaps in form are a concern but I think can help us. If Maccabi are beating sides 9th-13th away, without conceding, then surely they can replicate that with home advantage? Similarly, if Hapoel are losing to nil at home v the top 3, surely this will be repeated away from home.
  • Maccabi do have a 2 match draw sequence to end at home. Look to that to end.

15:30 - Ironi Kiryat v Maccabi Haifa - 1.33 Haifa

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Kiryat Shmona home matches while Maccabi Haifa have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Maccabi Haifa have won 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

Ironi Kiryat - 9th

  • 4 losses and 3 consecutive wins last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 10 and in 8 at home.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 6.
  • 2 home losses v  the top 4 saw a failure to score.
  • 2-0 loss to Haifa earlier this season.

Maccabi Haifa - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss v 1st in the league.
  • Won the Haifa derby convincingly recently.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 and in 6 away.
  • Only 1 goal conceded away v 3rd and lower.

Conclusions

  • All defeats home and away for Ironi v the top 6 should seal their fate today, as should the fact that this Haifa side are awfully tough to even score against.

16:30 - Hapoel Ra'anana v Hapoel Hadera - 2.25 Ra'anana

Hapoel Ra'anana - 14th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • 6 draws in 7 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • No win in 13 matches and in 7 at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st but 6 draws at home and not played 6th-9th at home.
  • 4-0 loss to Hadera the last time these 2 met.

Hadera - 7th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Won their last away match.
  • 2 losses away v 3rd and 4th.
  • 2-0-2 goals scored away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • In this league I like Maccabi Tel Aviv, Maccabi Haifa and Beer below. These 2 sides in this match are not that well known to me.
  • Ra'anana have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. They have no win in 13 and in 7 at home. Ra'anana have an awful lot of draws at home. Is that an angle? Remember they have only lost to 1st in the league.
  • Hadera have 2 losses away v top 4 sides. They have 2 goals in them v 10th and lower.
  • An interesting match. Ra'anana might be layable if leading particularly if they maintain their unbeaten run at home.....without necessarily winning!

17:50 - Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Ashdod - 1.5 Beer Sheva

  • Match outcome: H Be'er Sheva have won 16/20 home matches against middle-third teams while Ashdod have lost 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. Ashdod have conceded first in 9/11 away matches against top-six teams.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva - 4th

  • 5 losses in their last 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home losses.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 12 and in 8 at home.
  • 5 wins and a loss at home v 6th and lower.
  • 2-2 draw last time these 2 met.

Ashdod - 10th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 5 draws in 7 matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded in 7 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away win v 6th.
  • 3-3 v 2nd away, 2-4 win away v 6th.
  • 3-2-1-2-2 goals conceded away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • The Beer has got to the Beer. 3 consecutive home losses, and 5 losses last 8 matches are the only losses all season.
  • Beer are good at home v 6th and lower so may return to positive results today meeting 10th, a side with only 2 clean sheets and conceding 2+ goals in 70% of their recent matches.
  • Expectation is for Beer to get back to an unbeaten footing.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

12:00 - Ankaragacu v Denizlispor - 2.45 Den

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Ankaragucu home matches. Denizlispor have conceded first in 5/8 away matches.
  • A very unattractive market here and 2 of the lesser lights suggests just a quick glossing over.
  • 17th v 11th so immediately Ankar are a target?
  • Only 2 wins for Ankar. 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
  • They have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 matches so are very vulnerable.
  • Ankara have not beaten a top 12 side.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 for Deniz.
  • 3 wins in 4 away saw them scoring 2 goals.
  • Deniz are unbeaten away v 10th and lower, seeing those 2 goals again in 3 wins and a draw.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away by Deniz came 2nd half.
  • Angles? Despite what the market might suggest, I think Deniz are well placed here. They look good v 10th and lower, and could score 2 goals away. With Ankara failing to beat a top 12 side, it could be an away win/draw.

14:30 - Basaksehir v Kasimpasa - 1.42 Basaksehir

  • Match outcome: Istanbul BB have won 12/16 home matches against bottom-six teams while Kasimpasa have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams. Istanbul BB have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Basaksehir - 2nd

  • Only 2 losses 1st 2 matches of the season.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 and last 8 at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 5/8 home matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Kasimpasa - 15th

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • All defeats away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • Kasimpasa so far are losing to the top 7 and v top 4, conceding 2+ goals. A ready angle in v a Basaksehir with only 2 losses all season, no defeat in 7 and unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower. Expect the home side to oblige here.

14:30 - Trabzonspor v Kayserispor - 1.22 Trab

  • HT/FT: Kayserispor have had L/L double results in 9/12 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 9/13 such matches. Trabzonspor have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Trabzonspor - 3rd

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Only 1 win in 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 6 and last 3 at home.
  • Not played the bottom 5 at home but are unbeaten away v 12th and lower.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Kayserispor - 18th

  • Only 2 wins came at home and were 1-0.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 away matches.
  • Not played the top 4 away but lost to 1st and 2nd at home.

Conclusions

  • There are those a-cursed gaps in form but this Kayserispor look poor away, conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 8 away matches. They are yet to play the top 4 away but we can infer via 2 home defeats v the top 2 that they'll likely struggle. We can infer too that if Trabzonspor are unbeaten away v 12th and lower, then they are likely to perform well WITH home advantage v 18th.
  • Ideally, then, expect 2+ goals of Trabzonspor.

17:00 - Galatasary v Antalyaspor - 1.5 Galatasary

  • Match outcome: Galatasaray have won 13/17 home matches while Antalyaspor have lost by two or more goals in 8/11 trips to top-six teams. Antalyaspor have lost 8/11 away matches against top-six teams.

Galatasary - 7th

  • Only 4 losses.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 2nd.
  • 2/3 goals scored v bottom 2 and play 3rd bottom today.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came last 15 minutes of matches.

Antalyaspor - 16th

  • No win in 9 matches.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • 2 wins away were 0-1 only.
  • 1-0-1-0-1-0 goals scored away v top 12. 0-1 win v 4th, 0-0 v 6th away and 0-1 away v 9th win.
  • 9 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Antalyaspor lead 0-1 away, lay them but cover the 0-1. They have pulled off 2 away 0-1 wins v 4th and 9th so may surprise.
  • Galatasary look in good form at home. Only 1 loss suggests that they should not succumb today.
  • Both sides tend to really concede 2nd half so note that, particularly if Antalyaspor score first! Remember Gala have score 2/3 goals v bottom 2 and play 3rd bottom today.