Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Live chat today will be a facebook live video chat at the DRT Facebook page. An extremely rainy day here. I only have my laptop which did not function with the webinar software last time I tried it. 14:30 start will take in Ze Germans and the end of the English Championship (2 matches remaining). A caveat to today's chat....it may be a puzzle today with so much to play for, from so many teams. In-play stats will play a big part.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Barnsley v Brentford - 2 Brentford

  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Brentford are urgently in need of 3 points in order to cement a play-off place. Barnsley with a win could get out of the relegation zone if Bolton lose.
  • With only 3 wins since 18th November 2017, Barnsley are in trouble as you'd guess. They have conceded 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Draw though at home sees them accumulating precious points. 2 goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.
  • Brentford are more about defence. 4 wins and 3 draws last 7 matches. 1-1-0-0-0-1-1 conceded.
  • Barnsley have to arrest 6 failures to score in 8 matches v top 9 teams at home.. They did get a recent 2-2 v 5th though.
  • Brentford simply tend to do clean sheet 2+ goal wins v bottom 6.
  • I would look perhaps at a 2-2 and a 0-2 today. 2-2 in case Barnsley continue to score and 0-2 in case Brentford continue to win to nil away v bottom sides.

15:00 - Aston Villa v Derby - 2.02 Aston Villa

  • 2-0 Derby last head to head.
  • 2nd spot is possible for Villa with 2/2 wins.
  • Derby need to stay in the play-offs.
  • 4 wins in 5 for Villa. 3 defeats in 4 for Derby.
  • Villa have scored last 11 at home. Expect at least a goal today?
  • 5 clean sheets and 3 matches conceding 1 goal at home v top 10 - distinct tactic from Villa?
  • Derby have only scored 2 goals once away v top 11. Struggles again today?
  • 0-0's for Villa at home v 5th, 7th and 8th and they play 6th today.
  • It does seem to centre around Aston Villa's defence this match. Could we see a 0-0 for a while here? If Derby score first, lay them based on expectation for not scoring a 2nd? A tough old match with so much at stake.

15:00 - Wolves v Sheff Wed - 1.4 Wolves

  • 2 matches remain and the Champions take on a Sheffield Wednesday whose survival is assured and who cannot threaten the play-offs.
  • 7 wins and a 2-2 for Wolves last 8 matches looks set to continue in this, their last home match of the season.
  • They are scoring 2+ goals regularly so factor that in.3 wins and a loss away for Wednesday who are untriguingly unbeaten away v the top 5.
  • A dead rubber but with this being the last match of the season at home, I expect Wolves to sign off with class.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Liverpool v Stoke - 1.31 Liverpool

  • 0-3 Liverpool last head to head.
  • Only 4 defeats Liverpool who led a 0-2 lead slip v West Brom latest. A mixture of pre-Champions League distraction and needs must from West Brom.
  • Needs must here today for Stoke - 3 wins required from the 3 remaining matches and a need for Swansea to lose all of their remaining matches. Stoke alas look down.
  • No indepth research here. Liverpool may rest some key players but their 0-2 v West Brom showed they still have the goals in them. They will look to win today to pressure Man Utd in 2nd.
  • This is pre-Champions League again but I am with Liverpool throughout.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in their last 16 matches for Liverpool. 5 0-0's last 7 for Stoke at halftime.

15:00 - Burnley v Brighton - 2.28 Burnley

  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Burnley can only really advance a place in the league with a win in all remaining matches.
  • Brighton are 7 points above the relegation zone but have 4 matches remaining this season.

Burnley (7th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • 5 consecutive wins ended with a 1-2 v Chelsea and a 1-1  v Stoke latest.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (47%).
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.

Brighton (13th)

  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in all bar 1 away v top 12.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Dead rubber from Burnley so always a concern that fighting spirit will be blunted.
  • With no win in 10 away and Burnley on such a good recent run, I must be with the home side today despite no urgent need for points.
  • I would do as I did v Stoke, lay Brighton if Brighton scored first.

15:00 - C Palace v Leicester - 2.12 Palace

  • 2-2 and 0-3 Palace in the last head to head.
  • Leicester are safe but Palace are only 6 points above the relegation zone.
  • 2-1-2-3-0 scored by Palace recently. A very cautious 0-0 v Watford last match ensured them 7 points in their last 9 possible points.
  • Leicester have 2 defeats and a 0-0 latest.Worryingly for Palace, Leicester are unbeaten away v 13th and lower.
  • They have scored and conceded in all aways v 15th and lower.
  • Palace at home, though, v 5th-15th inclusive have only 1 loss and scored 2 goals in 7 of those 9 matches.
  • I do think Palace can come out of this match unscathed with at least a point. They have 2 goals in them at least I think and with leicester losing 2-1 recently, I would lay Leicester if leicester lead.
  • I cannot see another 0-0 for Palace. 3 points is a necessity v what is an unmotivated Leicester side.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Everton - 2.76 Huddersfield

  • 2-0 Everton last head to head.
  • Huddersfield are 6 points clear of relegation.
  • Nothing realistically for Everton to play for.

Huddersfield (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 was a 1-0 v Watford last match.
  • Only 2 home wins in 9 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (35%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th-13th inclusive.

Everton (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 was v Man City.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats ended with a win v 10 man Stoke and 1-1 draw v Swansea recently.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Only 2 away wins.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split the sides. The form suggests a 1-1 or 2-2 score draw. If only it were that simple in what is a relegation six pointer for Huddersfield and a dead rubber for Everton.

15:00 - Newcastle v West Brom - 1.85 Newcastle

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • It is between Swansea and West Brom for 4th bottom. If Swansea lose their remaining matches and West Brom win theirs, then West Brom stay up.
  • With a recent 0-1 win v Man Utd and comeback to 2-2 from 0-2 down v Liverpool, West Brom may get a result today.
  • 3 draws and 4 wins at home have ensured survival for Newcastle.
  • Newcastle at home are unbeaten v 13th and lower.
  • The market sees Newcastle not giving an inch. You may want to lay Newcastle if they lead slenderly given West Brom's recent exploits.
  • Other than that it is dead rubber v must win.

15:00 - Southampton v Bournemouth - 1.73 Southampton

  • 0-0 and 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • A win is critical for bottom 3 Southampton Bournemouth are 9 points above the relegation zone.

Southampton (18th)

  • 4 matches remain.
  • Only 1 win since 29th November 2017.
  • No win in 9 at home.
  • All defeats at home came v top 14.

Bournemouth (11th)

  • Conceded 2+ goals in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • 4-1-2-3 goals conceded away recently.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 8 draws in 12 matches played home and away v 12th-18th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • 3 points required from Bournemouth from their remaining 3 matches to ensure safety.
  • 3 points required now from Southampton.
  • Southampton may score if Bournemouth's recent poor defending continues. 2+ goals conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • The problem with Southampton is they have not won since 29th November 2017.
  • Strictly on form  this should be an easier assignment for Bournemouth.

17:30 - Swansea v Chelsea - 1.54 Chelsea

  • Chelsea won the 2 2017 head to heads.
  • 4 points above the relegation zone, the Swans need to maintain their solid home form under their new manager.

Swansea (17th)

  • 4 matches remain and more likely to get points v Bournemouth, Southampton and Stoke.
  • Win, Win, Win, Win, Draw at home latest. Must be feeling relatively confident of getting something.
  • 2 of those wins were v Liverpool and Arsenal.
  • Recent losses came away v the Manchester sides.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 at home so may have to do it the hard way.

Chelsea (5th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • An outside chance of a top 4 spot but must keep winning.
  • 3-3-4-4 goals scored v the current bottom 5 away this season.

Conclusions

  • A feeling the Swans will need to win points from fellow relegation threatened sides if Chelsea's season form v bottom 5 away plays out.
  • If it does, then expect 3/4 goals from Chelsea today. Swans v top 4 at home failed to score in 3. Are you more taken with their 4 wins and a draw last 4 at home including wins v Liverpool and Arsenal.
  • The value would be in laying a Chelsea lead here today but season long form sees a spanking for Swans.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Espanyol v Las Palmas - 1.42 Espanyol

  • 4-3 Espanyol and 2-2 last 2 head to heads.
  • Espanyol are 11 points clear of relegation. Las Palmas need 17 points for 4th bottom.
  • Las Palmas are relegated. Espanyol dot the i's with a win today and retain top flight status.
  • Both sides have 8 0-0's at halftime so it may be 0-0 at halftime but then again Las Palmas know their fate and may let loose.
  • Espanyol are unbeaten v teams below them in the league. Only 1 away win for Las Palmas was v bottom side Malaga.
  • We should expect the result to go with the market today.

15:15 - Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao - 1.91 Sociedad

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • Athletic are 12 points above relegation, Sociedad are 15.

Sociedad (11th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches. A shock loss v Malaga saw Malaga keep Sociedad from scoring.
  • 5-3-2-1-5-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's in the last 16 matches at halftime.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • No 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-2-1-3-5-2-0 goals scored at home v teams below them in the league.

Ath Bilbao (14th)

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 wins away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • We could see both teams scoring and if Sociedad continue their home goalscoring, 2+ goals, this should be their match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay any Bilbao lead.

17:30 - Real Madrid v Leganes - 1.28 Real Madrid

  • 1-3 Real Madrid last head to head.
  • Levante are 9 points above relegation.Real are 4 points from 2nd spot.
  • Champions League in mind for Real Madrid.
  • Only 1 loss since 21st January for Real Madrid.
  • Real unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • 23 goals scored by Real in each half at home.

Leganes (15th)

  • No win away in 13 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away.
  • Not beaten top 14 away.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Real should eye the win but may be distracted. Still Leganes are not showing any threat at all.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score market usually when a side scores 23 goals in the first half of home matches.

19:45 - Villarreal v Celta Vigo - 1.71 Villareal

  • 2 consecutive Villareal 0-1 wins in last 2 head to heads.
  • Villareal are 15 points shy of top 5.
  • Celta have little to fight for.
  • No draw in 8 at home for Villareal, no win away for Celta, conceding in their last 7 away.
  • 0-2-3-1-2-0-4-3 goals scored at home by Villareal v top 12
  • Celta tend to lose away v top 9, conceding 2 or 3 goals.
  • Strictly on form, Villareal could score 2 goals at least today and that ensure that they do not lose. Celta's season is done you feel and they have survived and have little else to play for.
  • Lay any Celta lead.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA - All 14:30 starts.

Wolfsburg v Hamburg - 2.2 Wolfsburg

  • 0-0 last head to head,
  • 3 matches remaining for both sides. Wins are critical now.
  • Wolf are one of a raft of sides on 30 points and in danger. Hamburg on 25 points will still be bottom 3 with a win, but it will be a foundation for survival, particularly if they can take 3 points off a fellow struggler.
  • Both sides showing of late that they are up for the fight. 0-0, 0-2 win, 0-0, then 3-0 loss for the Wolf trying to tighten things. Hamburg have 2 consecutive wins albeit at home.
  • No win in 14 away for Hamburg does not look good today. but then they play a Wolf with no win in 7 at home.
  • The Wolf are actually unbeaten at home v 8th and lower but are in trouble because they have had 8 draws at home.
  • Hamburg have a single away win v 18th.
  • Wolf seem to have the slightly better form, albeit drawing which suggests we lay Hamburg if Hamburg lead.
  • This of course all assumes the match goes to the form, lest we forget that this is a relegation six pointer.

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.54 Bayern

  • 0-1 Bayern last head to head.
  • Dead rubber for Champions Bayern.
  • Frankfurt could go 3rd with 3 wins but require the teams above them to suddenly all lose in consort.
  • Even a Champions League distraction has not stopped Bayern from winning. They did concede first v Augsburg and Mgladbach and then went on to score 4 and 5 goals so we may see Frankfurt strike the first blow, in which case it seems we can keep faith in dead rubber Bayern delivering still.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats now for Frankfurt should frank the above conclusion.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home plays only 1 0-0 at halftime away so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Freiburg v FC Koln - 2.04 Freiburg

  • 2 bottom 3 sides with 9 possible points remaining. All too late you feel for Koln, albeit they can mathematically survive but it will require all teams on 30 points to not earn a single point from all of their remaining matches.
  • Freiburg have only 2 losses at home v 3rd and lower so on that basis, on that form, they should be favoured today. It must be said that their 3-4 win over Koln earlier in the season was extremely fortuitous and required 2 late penalties.

Hertha Berlin v Augsburg - 2.12 Hertha

  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Both sides are safe from relegation.
  • A case of foot off the gas for these 2. A dead rubber and a match to avoid bar any inplay stats.

Schalke v Mgladbach - 1.93 Schalke

  • 1-1, 2-2, 1-1 last 3 head to heads. Chance an end to the score draws today if you see a late one?
  • Schalke are still looking to secure 2nd place. Top 4 mathematically possible, but improbable for Mgladbach.

Schalke (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 was a 3-2 v Hamburg.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 25 and last 12 at home.
  • 10 1-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home losses.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime in 11/15 at home.

Mgladbach (8th)

  • Only 2 losses in 8 v top 4 sides away.
  • 3/3 losses away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late score draw today and hope that sequence ends.
  • Expect Schalke to score.
  • I would, on recent form, see Mgladbach losing away again to a top 4 side so let that be the angle in.
  • You may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as Schalke have led 1-0 10 times at home.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Roma v Chievo - 1.41 Roma

  • Roma's last league match prior to their famous win over Barcelona in the Champions League was a win and we may see them add a little attacking confidence against Chievo today as they warm up for Round 2 v Liverpool.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Chievo are only 2 points above the relegation zone. Roma can keep 3rd place but cannot move any higher.
  • Only 2 recent losses in 12 for Roma came v AC Milan and Fiorentina. Chievo have only 2 wins since 3rd December and those came at home.
  • No win in 13 away for Chievo and 100% away defeats v top 9.
  • Roma have 11 wins in 12 matches home and away v 14th and lower.
  • On form, Roma should win today. Note Chievo have had a run of 0-0's at halftime so no surprise were we to see that again but expectation is for a Roma breakthrough 2nd half, despite the distraction of an apparent insurmountable task v Liverpool.

19:45 - Inter v Juventus - 2.42 Juventus

  • The Juventus odds look big here today. Inter have gone off the boil.
  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • Top 3 is available for Inter and Juventus, having lost to Napoli latest, need a win to retain top spot.

Inter (5th)

  • 4 wins and a draw at home last 5 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (35%).
  • All 0-0's v top 3.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Juventus (1st)

  • Only 3 defeats. Lost to a 90th+ minute goal v Napoli latest.
  • Unbeaten in 11 away.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Failed to score 2 goals v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Back 0-0 pre-match again? Likely scoreline if there is a goal is 0-1 or 1-0. You might want to back 1-0/0-1 if it is 0-0 at halftime.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Lyon v Nantes - 1.31 Lyon

  • 4 matches remain for both sides.
  • 5th is the best Nantes can do. 2nd is the best Lyon can do.

Lyon (3rd)

  • 3 draws and 6 wins last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home losses.
  • Only 1 win at home v 6th-12th inclusive.
  • Scored first in 12/16 at home.

Nantes

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 away and conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side away 1-1 v 4th, 5th and 6th away.

Conclusions

  • Best case for Nantes, even if they score, would seem to be another 1-1 draw.
  • Lyon are expected to score 2 goals at least today. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score based on Lyon.

19:00 - Bordeaux v Dijon - 1.57 Bordeaux

  • 3-2 Dijon last head to head.
  • 16 possible points remain this season and a feeling these 2 are safe from harm and unlikely to vye for any top spots.
  • I sniff a dead rubber. Why are Bordeaux so strongly fancied?
  • Only 2 wins since 18th February for Bordeaux.
  • Dijon have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 and lost only twice.
  • Dijon have no away win v the top 15, conceding 2+ goals in 11 of those matches.
  • 13 of 20 of Bordeaux's home goals were scored 1st half.
  • It seems the reason for the confidence behind Bordeaux is that Dijon are not mustard away from home. Let that be the guide here, particularly if Dijon open the scoring.