14:30 kick-off today for the live chat which will be in webinar format. Full details at the home page. I will see you then! On the calendar at the home page, please click on the words 'Live Webinar' in order to attend. If you cannot see the words, then click here https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7736917372895677697
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 kick offs
Brighton v Wolves - 2.58 Wolves
- An interesting market. I suppose, were this at home, Wolves would be favourites but then they wobbled v Watford, failing to keep their typical clean sheet.
- 2 consecutive 1-0 wins for Brighton ends a run of 1 win in 7 previously.
- Wolves have been a revelation but lost 2-0 to Watford at home, after 4 wins in 6 matches.
- Brighton's losses have congregated v 7th and higher. Wolves 2 losses came v 7th and 11th.
- All of Wolves wins came v 13th to 16th.
- Brighton are 12th, Wolves 9th. The 7 wins these 2 have this season saw a 1-0 scoreline on 5 occasions.
- Is this a hint as to what to expect in a match tough to read as this is the first time these 2 newly promoted sides have met.
Watford v Huddersfield - 1.8 Watford
- Huddersfield have yet to score that 2nd goal and therein is a simple angle if that pattern continues. Lay Huddersfield if they score first.
- Watford's losses came v Man Utd, Arsenal and Bournemouth. Not too many would be surprised there, particularly with the first 2.
- An away win v Wolves had the market makers wrong. Wolves were favourites there.
- Watford at home have scored 2 goals 3 times and scored and conceded in all matches. In fact, 3 of the results were 2-1 scorelines.
- I am with Watford today in what could be a generous price. Where on earth are Huddersfield going to buy a 2nd goal?
Southampton v Newcastle - 2.12 Southampton
- It's all going wrong at Newcastle as the Fat Spanish Waiter's mastery has yet to produce a win. Newcastle have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches and I thought their match v Brighton was an ideal place to get a win but they lost 0-1.
- Only 1 win for Southampton makes this a very unappetizing affair. You can smell the desperation from here.
- Southampton have failed to score in their last 4 matches. This is another match Newcastle must have pencilled in for the win?
- The lack of scoring from both sides suggests we back 0-0 pre-match? But Saints have scored 1 and 2 at home v Leicester and Brighton.
Fulham v Bournemouth - 2.48 Bournemouth
- The market cannot split these sides and I personally would have favoured Bournemouth. Let's look at the form and see if the match is as tough as the market makers suggest.
- Fulham have the 1 win which is what I thought. They have kept no clean sheets this season.0-4-1-1 scored at home. Why are the market makers giving Fulham a chance today?
- Bournemouth have only lost to Chelsea and Burnley, admittedly the latter defeat was a headscratcher. Win, Loss, Loss, Win away. 2 wins in 3 matches.Scoring 2+ goals on 6 separate occasions.
- As I say, a mystery why Bournemouth are not strong favourites. I will acknowledge that the market may know something I do not, but enter the match with a nod to the away side who score regularly, win regularly and should cope with a side in poor scoring form at home.
Liverpool v Cardiff - 1.12 Liverpool
- Short and sweet. Forget the 0-1 loss to Tottenham. Tottenham are the exception and not the rule. Cardiff tend to concede 3/4 goals v the top 5 teams. That is my expectation for today. Liverpool also have a habit for winning at halftime and fulltime. No real need to go in-depth. Plenty of angles just there to work from.
17:30 kick offs.
Leicester v West Ham - 2.2 Leicester
- Only 1 draw in all matches these 2 have played this season. Lay any late draw?
- Leicester win 2, lose 2, win 2 and then lose 2.
- They have scored in every match. Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home and no 0-0 at halftime away for West Ham so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- The Challenge Table reveals Leicester losing to current top 10 and with West Ham in 14th, the Challenge Table suggests Leicester have the ability to win today.
- West Ham have exclusively played top 12 sides and Leicester are 11th. 6 defeats.
- A recent 1-3 win away at Everton was a strange one for West Ham. It came from nowhere. The mini revival included Man Utd but 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
- On season form, Leicester should be looking at a win - I will enter the market on that basis.
SPANISH LA LIGA
12:00 - Girona v Rayo Vallecano - 1.84 Girona
- Only 2 wins Girona this season. No win in 5. 3 home losses in 4.
- Not played bottom 7 at home this season. Rayo are 2nd bottom.
- Only 1 win for Rayo came away v bottom side.
- I would look to lay Rayo if they score first based only on their inability to consistently score 2 goals today. Girona, I note, have scored 2 goals at least v 12th and 13th at home.
15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Valencia - 2.48 Atl Bilbao
- The market cannot decipher this match.
- Historically, the home team has tended to get the better of head to heads.
- Anyone fancy a draw? Bilbao have had 6 score draws. Valencia have had 7 draws, 5 score draws.
- Bilbao look more capable of avoiding draws at home. 2-1, 2-2, 0-3 and 1-3 at home. 1-2-3-3 goals conceded at home.
- 2-0, 2-2, 0-0, 0-1 away for Valencia.
- I would have to lay any late 1-1 or 2-2 score draw. These 2, out of necessity, cannot afford to keep score drawing!
- If you are taken by the fact that both teams have had 3 1-1 scorelines in their last 4, then lay the first team to score.
17:30 - Celta Vigo v Eibar - 2.18 Celta Vigo
- 4 consecutive Celta wins in head to heads.
- Both teams have scored in 7/9 matches for Celta this season, with only 2 wins.
- Celta have only one loss at home, 0-1 v Alaves last match.
- You've heard it before' gap in form' Another here. Celta not played 11th and lower this season and play 12th today.
- Eibar have scored and conceded in 6 matches this season and in their last 3 matches.
- They have kept only one clean sheet, as has Celta.
- All Eibar 0-0's at halftime have seen goals 2nd half.
- 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 away v top 10 and play 13th today.
- I would note Eibar's 0-0's at halftime but not fulltime. Pay attention if 0-0 at halftime.
- Gap in form for Celta but I would fancy them not to lose. Score draw possible. I would lay Eibar if Eibar score first. Celta have been unbeaten in some matches played v better positioned sides than Eibar at home.
17:30 - Levante v Leganes - 2.18 Levante
- 0-0 and 0-3 Levante last 2 head to heads. Clean sheets.
- 3 consecutive wins for Levante ends a run of 4 without a win.
- They have failed to score only once this season so may score again v Leganes.
- Levante have a good scoring record at home, 1-2-2-2 scored at home BUT only 1 win! Careless defensively.
- 2 recent wins have been 2-1 so when they tidy up their defence they turn their 2 goals to points.
- Levante have not played the bottom 6 this season and meet 3rd bottom today.
- Leganes have the 2 wins, last 2 home matches but that's it really. 1-1-0-0-1 goals scored away means 0-1 in best case scenario. With a side like Levante scoring 2 goals at home, Leganes may feel it if they cannot match 2 goals.
- 7 of Leganes 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half so note that.
- On the form, and head to heads, Levante are favoured today. They may turn their recent 2 goals-a-match exploits into a win, likely 2-0 or 2-1. Do note Leganes concede heavily 2nd half IF Levante have not scored by halftime - expect them to score 2nd half.
19:45- Atletico Madrid v Sociedad - 1.56 Atl Madrid
- 2 Madrid wins ended with a Sociedad win in the last head to head.Sociedad have been winning home head to heads but losing away.
- Atl Madrid are unbeaten at home, with 3 wins and a draw. They show their trade-mark defensive solidity with 3 home clean sheets. That is part of a run of 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime and only 1 0-0 at fulltime suggests to us that there is more likely to be a 2nd half goal if a first half goal is not forthcoming.
- Yet another gap in form. Atl Madrid are yet to meet the current top 10 and Real Sociedad are 9th so we are yet to learn how they play this season v the current top 10 form sides.
- Similarly Sociedad have not met the top 11 away.
- Overall Atl Madrid are yet to concede a first half goal.
- Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Win away for Socieadad but remember the context. Not met top 11 away.
- Gaps in form temper enthusiasm. In head to heads, Atl Madrid tend to win home encounters, Sociedad tend to win when at their home. So favour Atl Madrid today. Atl Madrid are likely to be hard to score against first half. No side has managed that yet.
- Note the huge number of 0-0's at halftime Atl Madrid which tend to see at least a goal 2nd half. Lay any 2nd half 0-0. You may want to back 0-0 pre match in the hope Atl Madrid conjure up another halftime 0-0.
GERMAN BUNDESLIGA - 14:30 kick offs
Dortmund v Hertha Berlin - 1.47 Dortmund
- Dortmund must be delighted with their mid-week Champions League performance.
- Hertha have not won at Dortmund in recent years but have taken points in Berlin.
- Dortmund are unbeaten and must keep rubbing salt into a faltering Bayern's wounds.
- Scoring 3 goals minimum at home obviously results in wins.
- 4 consecutive wins overall too. They are as goal-laden as they were in the Champions League.
- Having beaten 2 of the top 7, and with Hertha 6th, Dortmund are remaining consistent.
- Hertha have met one of the top 9 away, losing 3-1 to 3rd placed Werder Bremen.
- Hertha have just the one win away too, v 16th.
- This newly motivated Dortmund surely will outscore Hertha Berlin, a side more likely to take points from this clash in Berlin.
- Do note 12 of 16 goals scored by Dortmund came 2nd half. That surprised me too but they have led at halftime in 3/4 so that may green-light a lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Market is right here. Dortmund should simply outscore Hertha Berlin today.
FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern Munich - 1.28 Bayern
- Bayern are slowly piecing together the remnants of a dire start to the season with 2 consecutive away wins, one domestically, and one in the Champions League.
- Can we trust Bayern yet?
- With a failure to score in 5 matches now, Bayern's manager can't believe his luck, surely? They scored 3 away to Wolfsburg, ending a run of 2 matches without a goal.
- Bayern are unbeaten v current 8th and lower, scoring 2/3 goals away in wins.
- On current form, Bayern must eye a 3rd consecutive away win in all competitions. 2/3 goals likely.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg - 2.4 Wolfsburg
- Just the one win for newly promoted Fortuna came v the mighty Hoff.
- 4 consecutive defeats, conceding 2 goals at least, suggests that this tougher league is, indeed, tougher!
- Fortuna failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches
- Fortuna have scored 2 goals only once, and that resulted in a win. 1-1-0 in their other 3 home matches resulted in 3 losses.
- Wolfsburg noticeably have recorded 2 wins and a 0-0 v 12th and lower. The Wolf are conceding 2 goals , albeit v 8th and higher so today may be another match where they can eye an away win.
- As ever newly promoted side meeting established Bundesliga side for the first time may see a home surprise but on the limited form, Fortuna may struggle for that 2nd goal.
Hannover v Augsburg - 2.66 Hannover
- 1-2 Hannover and 1-3 Augsburg in the last 2 head to heads.
- Only 3 home matches for Hannover, Draw, Loss, Win. 3-1 win v Stuttgart may signal recovery? 3-1 and 2-2 last 2 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet though.
- That solitary win came v the current 17th so may not be strong form.
- Both teams have scored in all bar one of Augsburg's matches. Last match was a 0-0 v Leipzig (maybe a pre-European competition distracted Leipzig).
- Augsburg's sole away win was v 18th.
- This looks like 2 teams in poor form. Both teams could score today but I am hard pressed to pick a winner and therefore a trading angle.
17:30 - Hoffenheim v Stuttgart - 1.63 Hoffenheim
- Both teams won their home head to heads last season.
- Both teams have scored in all Hoff matches. 2 consecutive home 1-2 defeats for the Hoff.
- Hoff's 2 0-0's at halftime score 2/3 goals in total.
- Stuttgart have only 1 win which came at home. 3 losses away and a draw.
- As with the last Hoff match, I think this match is another opportunity for them to record a win. Both teams may score with the Hoff scoring more than Stuttgart.
ITALIAN SERIA A
14:00 - Atalanta v Parma - 1.41 Atalanta
- Only 2 wins Atalanta came 1st and last matches.
- Atalanta failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. The reason their odds are so short is because Parma are newly promoted.
- But this is an Atalanta failing to score in 3 consecutive home matches.
- 4 wins in 5 matches though for Parma.Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
- Atalanta have goals in them, v Frosinone and Chievo where they scored 9 goals in 2 matches. The market suggests this capability today.
- I would not back Atalanta. I would actually lay them at 1.42 odds today.
17:00 - Empoli v Juventus - 1.29 Juventus
- Juventus tend to win head to heads.
- Only 1 win for Empoli came first match of the season.
- Empoli have scored 2 goals only twice, loss and draw.
- Juventus were hit by the post-International and pre-Champions League weekend last weekend with a 1-1 draw v Genoa. That was the first time Juventus failed to score 2 goals.
- I expect a return to winning ways today and a return to 2 goals. Empoli, as reported, are struggling to score those 2 goals.
19:30 - Torino v Fiorentina - 2.6 Torino
- 2 Fiorentina wins last 2 head to heads.
- Only 2 losses for Torino this season.
- 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Losses v 2nd and 6th came at home.
- 4 of 5 goals scored at home by Torino came first half.
- 3 losses and a draw away for Fiorentina.
- All losses Fiorentina v top 4.
- A match alas suffering from 'form gaps' and thus tough to evaluate form. Note Fiorentina have exclusively only lose v top 4 sides away and that might give them the edge today - remember they won the last 2 head to heads.
SPL - 15:00 kick offs
Kilmarnock v Hamilton - 1.42 Kilmarnock
- A good vibe about Killie under Steve Clarke.
- 5 wins in 6 for Killie -they are scoring and conceding, but thankfully scoring at least one more!
- Hamilton are currently 9th and Killie have beaten 8th and 10th.
- 100% wins v 7th and lower.
- 6 losses in 7 for Hamilton suggests they cannot win today v this inform home side.
- 100% defeats for Hamilton v 8th and higher, they play 3rd today.
- Both teams may score but 2-1, 3-1 looks viable for Killie.
St Johnstone v St Mirren - 1.91 St Johnstone
- No head to heads since 2015.
- St Johnstone's defeats this season came exclusively v 5th and higher. St Mirren are 11th.V 9th and lower St Johnstone have won all matches.
- 7 defeats and a 0-0 St Mirren. 0-0 seems best case scenario.
- 2-4 goals usually conceded by St Mirren.
- On form this season, St Johnstone should eye the win today.
18:45 - De Graafschap v Excelsior - 2.6 De Graaf
- An unappealing betting market.
- Only 2 wins for De Graaf came in their home matches.
- 6 defeats though in 8 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- No home draw De Graaf.
- I stop here. No strong angles. In-play stats key.
18:45 - Groningen v PSV - 1.32 PSV
- 1-1,3-3, 0-0 last 3 head to heads. The draw looks layable today late on if we see one.
- Only 1 win for Groningen sees 7 defeats.
- 100% win record PSV and 5 consecutive clean sheets.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- Lay the 0-0 halftime score market based on PSV. Lay any late draw if you see one in the hope the draw sequence in head to heads ends today.
- Away win expected.
17:30 - ADO Den Haag v Breda - 1.74 ADO
- ADO and Breda wins last 2 head to heads.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Win at home for ADO.
- Only 2 losses in 7 matches for ADO.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- Only 1 win Breda.6 defeats and a 2-2 last 7 matches.
- Breda have conceded 2+ goals in 8 matches this season.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Breda's conceding of 2 goals regularly has us with ADO today who should eye the win.
- Slight gap in form. Breda not met 10th and lower away and play 10th today.
19:45 - Zwolle v Heracles - 2.2 Zwolle
- 2-1 Zwolle and 2-1 Heracles last 2 head to heads
- Only 1 win at home for Zwolle came last match.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- Not beaten top 7 yet and play 4th today.
- 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
- Heracles have only 2 defeats, coming away.
- Only 1 clean sheet. all over 2.5 goals bar 1 match.
- Gap in form away for Heracles. Not played the bottom 6 where Zwolle are.
- A sudden 4-0 defeat last away match for Heracles was a head scratcher for me. I traded waiting for the typical 2 goals but they were not forthcoming.
- On form, I would have to side with Heracles but as I say, an out-of-the-blue 4-0 defeat last away match.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If nearly all Heracles matches are over 2.5 goals, not beyond imagination to expect a first half goal.