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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 27, 2021

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Man City v West Ham - 1.25 Man City

Man City - 1st

  • 13 consecutive wins, 6 at home.
  • No defeat 17 and 11 at home.
  • Scored last 14 and last 12 at home.
  • 6 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Not beaten 3rd and 6th at home.

West Ham - 4th

  • 7 wins, a loss and a draw last 9 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw last 4 away matches.
  • Not beaten 1st or 2nd at home.
  • Lost to Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal away.
  • 13 goals in total last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Post Champions League City - will they be affected? Yet to beat a top 6 side at home, they meet a West Ham yet to beat the top 2 with home advantage.
  • We cannot desert City. West Ham tend to lose to the established top 6 away as you see - Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool.....City?
  • Asian handicap: Man City have won by two or more goals in 12/19 home matches and they have scored first in 18/19 home matches. West Ham have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches.

15:00 - West Brom v Brighton - 1.95 Brighton

  • Another match in which West Brom will eye 3 points but they play a Brighton side unlucky not to continue their single goal max concession pattern. Palace got them with a 90th+ minute late winner latest to end a run of 7 matches without a 2nd goal conceded (or scored!) by Brighton.
  • 1-1 and 0-0 latest for West Brom. 1-0-2-1-0-1-0  goals scored recently. They scored 2 goals v Fulham.
  • Angles? Brighton are very tough to score 2 goals against so any West Brom win will have to be 1-0 you sense. I would lay West Brom if they scored first. I think Brighton will return to 1 goal max conceded.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/12 WBA home matches and in 6/11 Brighton away matches against bottom-six teams. WBA have lost by two or more goals in 6/12 home matches.

17:30 - Leeds v Aston Villa - 2.30 Leeds

Leeds - 10th

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 16 and 7 at home.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.
  • Not beaten the top 12 at home.
  • All home wins v 13th and lower.
  • 13/19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Aston Villa - 8th

  • 3 clean sheets 5 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, draw away.
  • Not played 6th-10th away. Only 1 away loss v 11th and lower.
  • 7/10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 could explode or implode. Villa keeping clean sheets but in other matches concede 3 goals!
  • Leave this one alone pre match.
  • 1st goal: Leeds have conceded first in 6/11 home matches while Aston Villa have scored first in 7/13 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Aston Villa away matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - Newcastle v Wolves - 2.10 Wolves

Newcastle - 17th

  • 10 losses last 12 matches.
  • Won last home match 3-2 v Southampton.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 home win v top 13 - sole match they scored 2 goals in.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Wolves - 12th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4.

Conclusions

  • If Wolves keep Newcastle from scoring 2 goals, they have a chance. Wolves are hitting solid form and just edge it.
  • 1st goal: Newcastle have scored first in 6/11 home matches while Wolves have lost the first half in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Wolves have conceded first in 10/12 away matches against bottom-six teams.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:30 - Bournemouth v Watford - 2.70 Watford

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/15 Bournemouth home matches while Watford have drawn the first half in 5/6 away matches against top-half teams. There have been -1.5 goals in 10/16 Watford away matches.

15:00 - Barnsley v Millwall - 2.20 Barnsley

  • 1st half outcome: Barnsley have drawn the first half in 11/15 home matches against middle-third teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 9/13 Millwall away matches. Millwall have drawn the first half in 10/20 away matches.

15:00 - Birmingham v QPR - 2.62 QPR

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Birmingham home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/10 QPR away matches against bottom-six teams. QPR have drawn the first half in 12/16 away matches.

15:00 - Blackburn v Coventry - 2.10 Blackburn

  • 1st goal: Coventry have conceded first in 12/14 away matches and they have lost 9/14 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Blackburn home matches.

15:00 - Brentford v Stoke - 1.91 Brentford

  • 1st half outcome: Brentford have won the first half in 7/11 home matches against top-half teams while Stoke have conceded first in 5/9 away matches against top-six teams. Brentford have won 7/10 home matches.
  • A rare return to form for Brentford mid week was heralded by the market, 1.67 favourites. Still odds on today and still a little untrustworthy after a sharp loss of form recently.

15:00 - Luton v Sheffield Wed - 2.30 Luton

  • 1st goal: Luton have scored first in 11/18 home matches while Sheffield Wed have lost 7/8 away matches against bottom-half teams. Sheffield Wed have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Middlesbrough v Cardiff - 2.60 Middlesbrough

  • 1st goal: Middlesbrough have conceded first in 8/11 home matches against top-six teams while Cardiff have won 6/10 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Cardiff away matches against top-half teams.

15:00 - Preston v Huddersfield - 2.37 Preston

  • 1st half outcome: Huddersfield have lost the first half in 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams and they have lost 6/8 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 7/13 Preston home matches.

15:00 - Rotherham v Reading - 2.60 Reading

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/14 Reading away matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 such matches. Rotherham have conceded first in 8/11 home matches.

15:00 - Swansea v Bristol City - 1.83 Swansea

  • Match outcome: Swansea have won 8/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Bristol City have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams. Bristol City have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE

15:00 - Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury - 2.37 Shrewsbury

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 15/18 Shrewsbury away matches and -1.5 goals in 10/20 Shrewsbury away matches. Bristol Rovers have lost 8/11 home matches.

15:00 - Charlton v Blackpool - 2.62 Blackpool

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/7 Charlton home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 7/10 Charlton home matches. Blackpool have scored first in 5/9 away matches against top-half teams.

15:00 - Crewe v Sunderland - 2.10 Sunderland

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/15 Crewe home matches and in 14/20 Sunderland away matches. Sunderland have scored first in 8/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

15:00 - Fleetwood v Accrington - 2.40 Fleetwood

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/15 Crewe home matches and in 14/20 Sunderland away matches. Sunderland have scored first in 8/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

15:00 - Ipswich v Doncaster - 2.37 Ipswich

  • 1st goal: Ipswich have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Doncaster have scored first in 8/13 away matches. Ipswich have lost 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.

15:00 - MK Dons v Oxford Utd - 2.50 Oxford

  • 1st goal: MK Dons have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against top-half teams and they have lost the first half in 5/9 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/19 Oxford away matches.

15:00 - Peterborough v Wigan - 1.44 Peterborough

  • 1st goal: Peterborough have scored first in 9/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Wigan have conceded first in 8/13 away matches. Wigan have lost 7/13 away matches.

15:00 - Plymouth v Lincoln - 2.25 Lincoln

  • 1st half outcome: Plymouth have won the first half in 9/14 home matches and they have scored first in 11/14 home matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 8/13 Lincoln away matches against middle-third teams.

15:00 - Portsmouth v Gillingham - 1.65 Portsmouth

  • 1st half outcome: Portsmouth have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-half teams while Gillingham have conceded first in 10/15 away matches. Portsmouth have won 14/20 home matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Rochdale v Burton - 2.45 Burton

  • 1st goal: Rochdale have conceded first in 11/13 home matches while Burton have scored first in 7/9 away matches against bottom-half teams. Burton have drawn the first half in 8/11 away matches.

15:00 - Swindon v Northampton - 2.40 Swindon

  • 1st goal: Swindon have conceded first in 11/14 home matches while Northampton have won the first half in 3/5 away matches against bottom-six teams. Swindon have lost 7/11 home matches.

15:00 - Wimbledon v Hull - 1.75 Hull

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.44 Celtic

Celtic - 2nd

  • Shock loss v Ross County last match.
  • Ended a run of 5 wins.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Only lost to St Mirren and Rangers at home.
  • 1-0 win and 3-3 last head to heads.

Aberdeen - 4th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches came at home.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches but did score last match.
  • Failed to score last 4 away.
  • Lost to the top 2 away.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 matches left? If so what's Celtic's motivation here? They cannot catch Celtic.
  • On seasonal form, Aberdeen tend not to beat the top 2. Aberdeen keep 0-0's at halftime and have been such poor goal scorers we must lay them if they score first.
  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 14/19 home matches while Aberdeen have lost 8/10 away matches against Big One teams. Celtic have had W/W double results in 13/19 home matches.

15:00 - Hibernian v Motherwell - 1.75 Hibs

Hibs - 3rd

  • 0-0 and 0-3 win last 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 6th and lower.
  • 4 consecutive wins, 5 wins in 6, last 2 dropped points matches v Celtic and Rangers.

Motherwell - 9th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3.
  • 0-0 last match.
  • Not beaten top 3 home or away.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Favour Hibs here.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • If Motherwell score away it tends to come first half.
  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 14/19 home matches while Aberdeen have lost 8/10 away matches against Big One teams. Celtic have had W/W double results in 13/19 home matches.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd - 2.37 Kilmarnock

  • 11th v 7th.
  • 4-0 win and 0-2 loss for Killie when meeting Dundee Utd this season.
  • Wins at home for Killie came v Dundee United and the bottom 3.
  • Dundee United away tend to win v 9th, 10th, but lose away v Killie and draws v 12th.
  • Angles? Form is a bit messy.
  • 1st goal: Kilmarnock have scored first in 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Dundee Utd have conceded first in 8/14 away matches. Dundee Utd have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - St Mirren v Ross County - 1.91 St Mirren

St Mirren - 6th

  • All defeats bar 1 at home came v the top 3.
  • 1-1 and 0-2 win last head to head.
  • Scored 2 goals only twice at home.
  • 4 consecutive draws, either 1-1 or 0-0.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.

Ross County - 10th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches, latterly v Celtic.
  • No draw in 12 away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • What to make of Ross County's win against Celtic latest, particularly in light of St Mirren's goal scoring going off the boil recently? St Mirren may be vulnerable if scoring first as they have scored 2 goals only twice at home.
  • Asian handicap: Ross County have lost by two or more goals in 7/10 away matches and they have lost 8/10 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 St Mirren home matches against bottom-six teams.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Eibar v Huesca - 2.15 Eibar

Eibar - 17th

  • No win in 7.
  • Conceded last 7.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, 4 at fulltime at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head. unbeaten v bottom 2, scoring and conceding.

Huesca - 20th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I will cut this short. Another of those matches where we have 2 poor sides but sides collecting points v fellow strugglers so we can make an argument for either side here.
  • Eibar do score and concede v the bottom 2. A pattern to follow?
  • 1st half outcome: Eibar have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/12 Huesca away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Eibar home matches.

15:15 - Sevilla v Barcelona - 2.20 Barcelona

  • Too high profile to interest me pre match. Add in a sprinkle of post European Club competition and I'd rather play in play (If at all!!).
  • 1st half outcome: Barcelona have won the first half in 10/15 away matches and they have won 10/14 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 13/17 Sevilla home matches.

17:30 - Alaves v Osasuna - 2.80 Alaves

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. 2.80 the favourite.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Alaves home matches and in 9/12 Osasuna away matches. Osasuna have scored first in 10/20 away matches.

20:00 - Getafe v Valencia - 2.45 Getafe

  • As above.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Getafe home matches and they have drawn the first half in 11/18 home matches. Valencia have conceded first in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Koln - 1.18 Bayern

  • Any sub 1.2 favourite...you know the drill. If 0-0 after 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted halftime score market. 2 recent 2-0's by halftime suggests it is worth pursuing.
  • I do not expect a 2nd consecutive defeat for Bayern.
  • Koln have failed to score in 4 away.
  • We expect 3+ goals from Bayern today if none the worse for their excellent result v Lazio in the Champions League.
  • Match outcome: Bayern have won 13/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while FC Koln have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top-six teams. FC Koln have lost 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

14:30 - Dortmund v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.18 Dortmund

  • Arminia Bielefeld too advantage of bad weather, Bayern returning from Qatar and pre Champions League to take a 3-1 lead v Bayern, a lead eroded to 3-3 eventually.
  • Bayern were similar odds to Dortmund.
  • Dortmund's last 4 defeats since 15th December 2020 came away from home.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw at home recently.
  • Dortmund have scored last 20 matches and last 10 at home.
  • Dortmund play 16th today and beat them 0-2 earlier and are unbeaten v 15th and lower.
  • 16/22 goals scored at home by Dortmund came 2nd half.
  • 3 losses and a 3-3 draw recently for Arminia, conceding 5-3-3-3 goals.
  • Bielefeld play 6th today and have not beaten any side in the top 9 and any top 14 side away.
  • Angles? As above with Dortmund, as regards a sub 1.2 favourite. Do remember that Dortmund score 2nd half if Bielefeld keep them quiet.
  • Bielefeld at their worst will concede 3 goals at least today.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 B. Dortmund home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 11/20 B. Dortmund home matches. A Bielefeld have conceded first in 6/10 away matches.

14:30 - Stuttgart v Schalke - 1.5 Stuttgart

  • Newly promoted v complete dodgepots.
  • 1 loss in 4 for Stuttgart. They play a Schalke with 1 win only all season.
  • Schalke have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 10 away for Schalke.
  • 1-1 last time these 2 met.
  • Only 1 loss at home for Stuttgart v 4th and lower saw 6 score draws and a win v 17th.
  • Schalke look opposable but are on a run of 2 consecutive away draws so may be competitive.
  • 1st goal: VfB Stuttgart have scored first in 5/10 home matches while Schalke 04 have lost 11/16 away matches. Schalke 04 have lost by two or more goals in 7/11 away matches.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin - 1.73 Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses came away.
  • 5 wins and 3 draws last 8 matches.
  • 6 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten in 10 at home.
  • 50% of home matches 0-0 at halftime.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 7 goals scored at home 16th-30th minutes.

Hertha - 15th

  • 6 losses and 2 draws.
  • No win in 8 and in 7 away.
  • 49% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No win home and away v the top 6.
  • All defeats away v the top 4.
  • 73+ % of goals in away matches came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I cannot desert the Wolf yet. Rock solid season against a Hertha with 6 losses and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 1st goal: Wolfsburg have scored first in 5/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hertha Berlin have lost 6/10 away matches against top-six teams. Hertha Berlin have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

17:30 - Leipzig v M'gladbach - 1.67 Leipzig

Leipzig - 2nd

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • 6/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach - 8th

  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss recently.
  • 5 draws and a win last 6 away matches.
  • No defeat 6 away.
  • Unbeaten v top 4.

Conclusions

  • This could be tighter than the odds suggest given Mgladbach's record v the top 4 so note that.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 RB Leipzig home matches and +3.5 goals in 7/11 B. M'gladbach away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 B. M'gladbach away matches.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Spezia v Parma - 2.50 Spezia

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. Parma are having a terrible season. Spezia are newly promoted and could be licking their lips. An easy 3 points?
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Spezia home matches and in 7/8 Parma away matches against bottom-six teams. Parma have scored first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

17:00 - Bologna v Lazio - 2.05 Lazio

Bologna - 12th

  • A win and 2 score draws last 3 home matches.
  • Last 3 teams to beat Bologna at home were Napoli, Roma, Milan.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.

Lazio - 6th

  • 7 wins and a loss last 8 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss away.
  • Scored last 19 and last 9 away.
  • 2-1 win last head to head.

Conclusions

  • It takes a big name to beat Bologna at home. Are Lazio a big name? They have scored in their last 19 so do expect a goal from them.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Match outcome: Bologna have lost 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while Lazio have won 8/10 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/14 Lazio away matches against middle-third teams.

19:45 - Verona v Juventus - 1.53 Juventus

Verona - 9th

  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches came at home.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 7/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Juventus - 3rd

  • 7 wins in 9 matches. 2 losses in 3 away v Napoli and Inter Milan.
  • No draw in 11 and in 6 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Verona have had 2 big wins at home v Roma and Napoli but recently, only 2 wins in 6 at home and 3 consecutive home wins.
  • This could be closer than the odds suggest. Juve are in decent nick and only 1 loss v 8th and lower makes some appeal v Verona.
  • 1st goal: Verona have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams while Juventus have scored first in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/20 Juventus away matches.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

15:30 - Utrecht v Emmen - 1.28 Utrecht

Utrecht - 7th

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 5 draws and 3 wins last 8 home matches.
  • 3+ goals scored last 3 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 2-3 win last head to head.
  • 14/21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Emmen - 18th

  • Only win came last match. 3-2 win.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • Failed to score last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Bit of a stretch to think Emmen can suddenly put together a 2 match winning streak. Utrecht at home recently worst case has been a draw and that will be my expectation today.
  • With Emmen failing to score last 5 away, I will lay them if they score first this time.
  • Match outcome: Utrecht have won 8/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Emmen have had L/L double results in 7/9 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Emmen have lost the first half in 11/12 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

17:45 - Den Haag v RKC Waalwijk - 2.10 RKC

Den Haag - 17th

  • 3 consecutive home draws, 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 3 score draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • No win in 11 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head, the only win v the top 14 home or away.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

RKC Waalwijk - 14th

  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • Not played bottom 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are score drawing of late. Den Haag are infrequent winners. They beat RKC last time but that was the only win v the top 14. I expect a tight match and would lay ADO if they lead today (and may cover the 1-0 given what happened last time).
  • Match outcome: Den Haag have won 7/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while Waalwijk have lost 6/7 away matches against bottom-six teams. Waalwijk have lost by two or more goals in 4/7 away matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Vitesse v Venlo - 1.44 Vitesse

Vitesse - 5th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 10/11 at home.
  • 4-1 loss last head to head.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 11/17 goals scored at home came 1st half.

VVV Venlo - 15th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses away recently.
  • Scored last 10 and last 9 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 16.
  • 16/20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 16.
  • Virtesse tend to score first at home so we may not see a trading angle.
  • Match outcome: Vit. Arnhem have won 9/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while VVV-Venlo have lost 11/12 away matches against top-six teams. VVV-Venlo have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Heracles v Twente - 2.62 Heracles

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • Match outcome: H Almelo have won 12/20 home matches while Twente have lost 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Twente have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

12:00 - Bordeaux v Metz - 2.30 Bordeaux

Bordeaux - 11th

  • 4 losses and a 0-0 recently.
  • Failed to score 3 of last 4.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, 4 at fulltime.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Failed to score v top 9 at home.

Metz - 6th

  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Win recently.
  • 3 wins in 4 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss away v 9th and lower.
  • 8/12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Metz have hit a bit of form away with 3 wins in 4 and with only 1 away loss v 9th and lower, look well placed here.
  • Both sides have high % of 0-0 at halftime so note that.
  • 1st half outcome: Bordeaux have drawn the first half in 9/13 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 14/17 Metz away matches. Metz have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

16:00 - Dijon v PSG - 1.18 PSG

  • Rangers, 0-0 20 mins, 2-0 halftime; Juventus 0-0 20 mins, 2-0 halftime; Barcelona 0-0 halftime, 3-0 fulltime.
  • All have one thing in common. Their odds are sub 1.2 as is PSG's. So, a couple of choices. If 0-0 after 20 mins, back 0-1, 0-2, any unquoted PSG in the halftime score market. If 0-0 at halftime, look to 0-3, 1-3, any other away score in the correct score market. Barcelona as you see managed it recently.
  • 1st goal: Dijon have conceded first in 7/10 home matches while Paris St-G have scored first in 8/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Paris St-G away matches against bottom-six teams.