They all seem to want to shoot themselves in the foot! Koln 0-1 to 1-1 - I cashed out for profit. But lose 1-2. League leaders. Basaksehir 0-1. I took out 0-1 insurance but a late 0-2 scuppered my plan. Porto 0-2 up saw an own goal produce a 2-2 final result. All 3 vying for the title! Little worry Liverpool who did what a 1.08 is expected to do. Augsburg conceded 2 goals again if you played there. Lyon did as they were supposed to coming from 2-1 down to 2-3.
On to today.... Will West Ham continue to concede 2 away and lose to top 6 away? I would consider laying the late 0-0 Celtic match - 2 consecutive 0-0's for them.
If Alaves continue to struggle to score 2 away v top 14, lay them if they lead. Needs must for Valladolid but Atl Madrid (so far) are as reliable as they come. With Levante conceding 3 goals in each of their last 2 away, Barcelona will be licking their lips (as long as they do not rest pre-Champions League stars!).
Hertha and Leipzig look solid. Those are my eyecatchers today. Avoid dead rubbers please!
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
- Liverpool 1st. 2 points clear of Man City. Game more played.
- Man City 2nd. Guaranteed 2nd at least. Must win to go top by 1 point.
- Tottenham. 3rd best case. Chelsea 4th. Arsenal 5th. Man Utd 6th. All teams vying for 3rd and 4th place.
- All other sides outside the top 6...7th is best case.
- Huddersfield relegated. Fulham relegated but suddenly clean sheets and wins!
- 3rd relegation place is realistically between Cardiff and Brighton.
12:30 - Tottenham v West Ham - 1.45 Tottenham
- London derby and I think it is important to recognize this given what happened in the Palace v Arsenal match. Teams can suddenly play above themselves.
- 3 matches remain this season. Full steam ahead for Tottenham who want to secure a top 3 place.
- West Ham are safe from relegation and not likely to gain from any further points tally.
- 6 wins in 7 matches at home for Tottenham and it took until the 88th minute to get the 1-0 v Brighton.
- Will we see similar struggles today?
- West Ham have conceded 2 goals in their last 6 matches so the Spuds will be delighted with that pattern.
- 5/5 losses for West Ham this season v the top 6 away.
- All wins bar 1 for Spurs v 7th and lower at home.
- It's tough to research matches at this stage of the season given needs must tends to trump season long form.
- Spurs, as I alluded to above, will be happy to see the Hammers conceding 2 goals regularly as well as losing away v the top 6.
- Keep the faith in Spurs a la Brighton if 0-0 for a while.
15:00 - Crystal Palace v Everton - 2.68 Palace
- The market cannot separate these teams.
- 3 matches remain this season.
- Palace are safe from relegation. 7th is best case for them.
- Everton are 9th. And a similar scenario.
- WLWLWLWLW in recent matches. 2-3 win over Arsenal latest.
- 3 losses in 4 at home saw both teams scoring.
- 4 wins in 5 for Everton but what happened against Fulham?
- 6 clean sheets in 8 for Everton.
- Palace have scored in their last 7 at home. Everton have not had a draw in 11 away.
- Only 1 home win for Palace v top 13.
- Palace have scored 2 goals only once at home v the top 13.
- 15 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Everton away have beaten 10th, 11th, 15h, 18th, 20th.
- Palace are inconsistent recently. Everton are inconsistent away.
- Palace have scored 2 goals only once at home v the top 13. Something to work with if Palace score first? (lay them)
- 2.68 the favourite and a lack of real motivation is a concern here.
15:00 - Fulham v Cardiff - 2.44 Fulham
- Fulham are down. Cardiff MUST win in order to get Brighton into the relegation fight. Cardiff are 3rd bottom, Brighton are 4th bottom.
- 2 consecutive wins for Fulham. A little too late! 2 consecutive clean sheets. And there was Cardiff hoping that they would roll over and get their tummies tickled.
- Cardiff beat Brighton last away match. That was a vital win.
- This is another vital must-win.
- Cardiff are unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. 4-2 win v Fulham earlier this season.
- Fulham have 4 wins in 4 at home v 15th and lower.
- What the feck is with Fulham? 2 consecutive clean sheet wins. Just what Cardiff do not want to see. Both sides tend to fair very well v the bottom 5 which further clouds the judgement.
- Needs must to lead us to Cardiff after that superb away win v Brighton which is the foundation to survival.
15:00 - Southampton v Bournemouth - 2.04 Southampton
- 3 matches remain.Southampton are 6 points clear of relegation. A win nails survival.
- Bournemouth are safe from relegation.
- So, immediately, we would expect a highly motivated Southampton. Southampton have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches, winning only once there when they scored and conceded.
- 3 wins in 4 at home. Only recent loss v Liverpool.
- Only 3 clean sheets under new manager, and failed to score only twice under new manager.
- Only 2 wins for Bournemouth since 2nd February came away v Huddersfield and Brighton. Not form to worry Southampton, I'd warrant.
- no draw in 17 away for Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth have a good winning record v 17th and lower but does that extend to 16th?
- I would expect Southampton to score today so that is an angle.
- Bournemouth tend to avoid the draw away - another angle?
- Do we favour a motivated home side who will seek to ensure survival with a win tonight?
17:30 - Brighton v Newcastle - 2.32 Brighton
- It seems a tussle between Cardiff and Brighton for that last relegation place.
- Brighton hold the 3 point buffer to the relegation zone. Newcastle are safe from harm so can rest easy.
- 5 losses and a 0-0 for Brighton recently where they have failed to score. You don't score you don't win, you don't stay up.
- Brighton have failed to score in their last 3 at home.
- Newcastle have won their last 2 matches, and got their first win in 8 away v Leicester last match.
- Newcastle may lack motivation today. When they needed points, they tended to look for a clean sheet and a 0-1.
- Brighton must win. On seasonal form, I'm with the geordies but needs must... Can Brighton score?
There are 2 matches remaining this season generally speaking.
Teams still with something to play for:
- Norwich. Top of the league by only 3 points. 6 points clear of 3rd place. A win therefore secures a top 2 berth.
- Sheffield United. 2nd. Keen to retain automatic promotion instead of the lottery and heartache of the play-offs.
- Leeds. 3rd - 3 points shy of 2nd place and automatic promotion. Doing a great job of throwing away their season.
- West Brom - 4th. Can go 3rd but the key here is to retain a play-off place. Which they mathematically have.
- Aston Villa - 5th. Will be in the play-offs after a majestic run-in.
- Derby County 6th - 67 points. 7th (Middlesbrough), 8th (Bristol City), 9th (Sheffield Wednesday), 10th (Swansea City) can all possibly vye for the play-off places but 9th and 10th need some favours.
- Ipswich 24th. Relegated. Cannot wriggle out of the bottom 3.
- Bolton 23rd. As above.
- Rotherham 22nd 40 points. Still have hope but relegation 3rd bottom is between them and Millwall realistically.
- Millwall 21st 43 points. Relegation threatened.
- Reading. 20th. You'd think they're safe now. Superior goal difference even if they lose their remaining 2 matches. Need a draw last 2 matches to stay up.
- All others.....beware. Season over. Job done. Nothing to see here. Move along please.
12:30 - Celtic v Kilmarnock - 1.24 Celtic
- 2 consecutive 0-0's Celtic. 4 matches remain with Rangers 9 points shy of Celtic. A win for Celtic today sees them Champions (or does it....as there are matches after the season-proper ends!).
- I would take on those 2 0-0's today.
- 5-1 win v Kilmarnock earlier this season. Celtic have conceded 2 goals only once this season at home so if Kilmarnock score first, lay them.
- Kilmarnock away have only one win v the top 5. They have scored and conceded away v the top 2 but have not won.
- Not sure I can trust this current Celtic who seem to be coasting but I would certainly lay any late 0-0. Kilmarnock are opposable if scoring first.
15:00 - Hamilton v Livingston - 2.55 Livingston
15:00 - Motherwell v Dundee - 1.78 Motherwell
- 5 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last home match.
- Only 1 win in 5 matches.
- 3/3 wins v Dundee this season.
- 8 consecutive defeats, 4 consecutive away defeats.
- Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Conceded in their last 14 and last 13 away.
- Unsure as to motivation here. Motherwell are undoubtedly in good recent home form and are playing the right team for that to continue today.
- Dundee have trouble even scoring so if scoring first, lay them.
15:00 - St Mirren v St Johnstone - 2.55 St Johnstone
SPANISH LA LIGA
12:00 - Ath. Bilbao v Alaves - 1.6 Ath Bilbao
Atl Bilbao (7th)
- 7 defeats for Ath Bilbao since 21st October 2018 all came away from home. So they will expect at home.
- 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 home matches.
- No defeat in 12 at home.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home (41%).
- Bilbao are unbeaten at home v the top 10.
- 13 of their last 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Not won in 6 matches.
- Conceded in their last 9 matches and last 8 away.
- Only 1 win away v top 14. Failed to score that 2nd goal.
- Failed to score away v the top 6.
- Ath Bilbao have saved their season. Their home form is excellent and I don't think they will lose today. Alaves struggle to score that 2nd goal v the top 14 so lay Alaves if Alaves score first. They have trouble even scoring away v the top 6.
15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Valladolid - 1.4 Atl Madrid
- 9 wins and 2 losses in 11 matches for Atl Madrid. I trust this team.
- Atl Madrid have failed to score in only 5 matches.
- 5 consecutive home wins for Atl Madrid.
- Atl Madrid have scored in their last 17 at home.
- 47% 0-0's at halftime at home for Atl Madrid.
- All wins bar a draw at home for Atl Madrid v 4th and lower.
- 2/3 goals scored at home v 15th and lower.
- Only 3 wins this year for Valladolid.
- Conceded in their last 12 away.
- 100% defeats home and away for Atl Madrid v the top 3.
- Not beaten top 8 away.
- I trust Atl Madrid as I said and am with them throughout, even if 0-0 at halftime (where I'd look to 2-0 2nd half).
- High 0-0 at halftime both sides.
17:30 - Leganes v Celta Vigo - 2.25 Leganes
- Leganes are 12th and and Celta Vigo are 16th. 4 matches remain this season.
- Leganes are 7 points above the relegation zone.
- Celta Vigo are only 2 points above the relegation zone.
- This is a relegation six-pointer(ish).
- No win in 4 for Leganes.
- Only 3 home losses for Leganes saw them lose 0-1, 0-1, 0-2. So, if they score....they are likely not to lose.
- 4 1-0 wins and a loss at home v 15th and lower.
- 10 of 14 goals conceded at home by Leganes came 1st half.
- Only 1 loss in 6 for Celta Vigo came v Atl Madrid.
- No win in 10 away for Celta Vigo.
- Celta have conceded in their last 9 matches and last 5 away.
- Celta have not beaten a top 13 side away from home.
- Both sides need the points. Celta have been in excellent recent form....enough to usurp their poor away run v the top 13.
- If Leganes lose this season at home, they tend not to score. So....if they can score, then we should expect draw worst case scenario.
19:45 - Barcelona v Levante - 1.28 Barcelona
- Unbeaten since 24th November 2018. Reliable last match at 0-0 at halftime. Got the goal(s) we usually expect of Barcelona.
- 9 wins in their last 10 matches at home.
- 9 points clear at the top with a possible 12 remaining so must win today. Atl Madrid in 2nd have a winnable match.
- Scored in their last 17 at home.
- Only 1 home loss, a 3-4 v Betis was eminently tradeable.
- 26 goals scored last 1/2 hour of home matches.
- Only 3 wins this year.
- May be 14th but are 3 points away from the relegation zone.
- 3 goals conceded in each of their last 2 away matches. Music to Barcelona's ears.
- Conceded in their last 13 away matches.
- Needs must for both sides but Levante are suddenly leaking goals away against a Barcelona with that air of reliability about them. I'd expect 2+ goals of Barcelona and will keep faith if they fail to score first half.
- Barcelona are great last 1/2 hour goal scorers.
ITALIAN SERIA A
14:00 - Bologna v Empoli - 1.83 Bologna
- 4 consecutive home wins.
- 5 points above the relegation zone.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets.
- 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50% of matches).
- 2 losses at home v 9th and lower v 13th and 19th
- 2-1 loss to Empoli earlier this season.
- 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- A relegation six pointer.
- On seasonal form, Empoli should not win - score draw is possible.
- Strong 2nd half goals trend for Bologna.
17:00 - Roma v Cagliari - 1.47 Roma
- Top 4 is within Roma's grasp. Cagliari are 11 points clear of relegation with 5 matches remaining.
- Unbeaten in 4.
- Only home loss since 28th October 2018 came v 2nd placed Napoli.
- Scored last 11 at home.
- 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Only 1 home loss outside the top 2.
- 12/15 matches there saw 2+ goals scored.
- 69% over 3.5 goals at home a high %.
- Only Juventus have beaten Cagliari in their last 6 matches.
- Only 2 away wins v 4th and 20th.
- Cagliari's poor away form should be their undoing despite only Juventus beating them in their last 6 matches.
- At their best, at home, Roma can score 2 goals and that will be a solid foundation.
- An argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, particularly with 69% over 3.5 goals at home for Roma.
19:30 - Inter Milan v Juventus - 2.4 Inter Milan
- Juventus are Champions so I will not research this match. In-play stats for me.
14:30 - Dortmund v Schalke - 1.3 Dortmund
- 4 matches remaining. Dortmund must win all remaining matches and hope that Bayern draw/lose at least one of their remaining matches.
- All 3 defeats came away.
- No defeat 15 at home, 4 consecutive home wins.
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 15 home matches.
- Only 2 win since 25th January.
- 3 losses, a win and a draw last 5 away.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Not beaten top 8 home or away.
- 6 point gap to the bottom 3 with 4 matches remaining. Near to safety but not there yet.
- Who wins today? Pain (relegation) or Pleasure (Title)?
- On seasonal form Dortmund should score 2 goals as a foundation to the win, what with Schalke's winless record v the top 8.
- Schalke (2nd last year) may surprise (win and draw last 2 away) but on form, no.
14:30 - Fort. Dusseldorf v Werder Bremen - 2.3 Werder
- Dusseldorf are 10th, Werder Bremen are 8th. Dusseldorf are delighted with their season.
- Werder failed to score only in their last match against Bayern Munich. I think that they can revert to scoring ways today.
- This is a dead rubber of sorts.
- Werder Bremen have scored and conceded in all bar 3 away matches.
- No draw at home for Dusseldorf this season.
- I have a lack of enthusiasm about this match. I do feel that Werder will score again (if fully wound up) and may concede. I would lay Dusseldorf if they scored first.
14:30 - Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin - 1.42 Frankfurt
- Only 1 loss this year.
- 3 wins and a loss in their last 4 at home.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored in their last 9 and last 7 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 6 wins and a loss at home v 10th and lower.
- Scored and conceded at home in all bar 1 v the top 14.
Hertha Berlin (11th)
- 5 losses and a draw in their last 6 matches.
- 6 losses and 2 wins in their last 8 away matches.
- 3 consecutive away defeats.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- No draw in 10 away.
- Only 1 away win v the top 13, came v 5th (did the double over 5th).
- Hertha are free from relegation worries. Frankfurt are in good form and 3rd place is a possible.
- Both teams could score today but I feel Frankfurt may not lose. Remember that they have failed to score in only 3 matches.
14:30 - Hannover v Mainz - 2.35 Mainz
- A dead rubber. Hannover are down, Mainz are safe from relegation.
14:30 - Leipzig v Freiburg - 1.24 Leipzig
- 5 consecutive wins, unbeaten in 12 and a smattering of clean sheets.
- Leipzig can sniff the title but need implosions from 1st and 2nd. 3rd is guaranteed.
- Only home defeat v 2nd.
- 11 points clear of relegation with 12 possible remaining. A realistic feeling of survival.
- 2 draws and 3 consecutive losses.
- No win in 7 away.
- Conceded in their last 8.
- Not beaten top 8 away.
- Scored 2 goals only once away v the top 15.
- While it's mathematically possible, I suppose Leipzig can still dream but 1st or 2nd is highly unlikely. They are guaranteed 3rd place.
- The recent momentum is very impressive and suggests the intensity may remain at home in what is a match with a tinge of dead rubbered ness to it.
- Remember that Freiburg have conceded in their last 8 away matches so remember that, as well as their being unable to score 2 goals regularly enough away v the top 15 - lay them if they score first therefore.
17:30 - Stuttgart v M'gladbach - 2.05 Mgladbach
- 4 matches remain, 6 points shy of 4th bottom.
- Only 1 win since 18th December 2018.
- Conceded in their last 17 matches.
- 100% defeats home and away v top 6.
- 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 2 wins since 9th February were 0-1 away.
- Scored in their last 7 away.
- 100% wins v bottom 4 home and away.
- On seasonal form, it is clear cut. Mgladbach win. But needs must for Stuttgart. Will they improve? Only 1 win since 18th December 2018 suggests not.