Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

They all seem to want to shoot themselves in the foot! Koln 0-1 to 1-1 - I cashed out for profit. But lose 1-2. League leaders. Basaksehir 0-1. I took out 0-1 insurance but a late 0-2 scuppered my plan. Porto 0-2 up saw an own goal produce a 2-2 final result. All 3 vying for the title! Little worry Liverpool who did what a 1.08 is expected to do. Augsburg conceded 2 goals again if you played there. Lyon did as they were supposed to coming from 2-1 down to 2-3.
On to today.... Will West Ham continue to concede 2 away and lose to top 6 away? I would consider laying the late 0-0 Celtic match - 2 consecutive 0-0's for them.
If Alaves continue to struggle to score 2 away v top 14, lay them if they lead. Needs must for Valladolid but Atl Madrid (so far) are as reliable as they come. With Levante conceding 3 goals in each of their last 2 away, Barcelona will be licking their lips (as long as they do not rest pre-Champions League stars!).
Hertha and Leipzig look solid. Those are my eyecatchers today. Avoid dead rubbers please!
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4006099601526137101 is the link for today's 14:30 live chat webinar. Please register to attend.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

  • Liverpool 1st. 2 points clear of Man City. Game more played.
  • Man City 2nd. Guaranteed 2nd at least. Must win to go top by 1 point.
  • Tottenham. 3rd best case. Chelsea 4th. Arsenal 5th. Man Utd 6th. All teams vying for 3rd and 4th place.
  • All other sides outside the top 6...7th is best case.
  • Huddersfield relegated. Fulham relegated but suddenly clean sheets and wins!
  • 3rd relegation place is realistically between Cardiff and Brighton.

12:30 - Tottenham v West Ham - 1.45 Tottenham

  • London derby and I think it is important to recognize this given what happened in the Palace v Arsenal match. Teams can suddenly play above themselves.
  • 3 matches remain this season. Full steam ahead for Tottenham who want to secure a top 3 place.
  • West Ham are safe from relegation and not likely to gain from any further points tally.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches at home for Tottenham and it took until the 88th minute to get the 1-0 v Brighton.
  • Will we see similar struggles today?
  • West Ham have conceded 2 goals in their last 6 matches so the Spuds will be delighted with that pattern.
  • 5/5 losses for West Ham this season v the top 6 away.
  • All wins bar 1 for Spurs v 7th and lower at home.
  • It's tough to research matches at this stage of the season given needs must tends to trump season long form.
  • Spurs, as I alluded to above, will be happy to see the Hammers conceding 2 goals regularly as well as losing away v the top 6.
  • Keep the faith in Spurs a la Brighton if 0-0 for a while.

15:00 - Crystal Palace v Everton - 2.68 Palace

  • The market cannot separate these teams.
  • 3 matches remain this season.
  • Palace are safe from relegation. 7th is best case for them.
  • Everton are 9th. And a similar scenario.
  • WLWLWLWLW in recent matches. 2-3 win over Arsenal latest.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home saw both teams scoring.
  • 4 wins in 5 for Everton but what happened against Fulham?
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 for Everton.
  • Palace have scored in their last 7 at home. Everton have not had a draw in 11 away.
  • Only 1 home win for Palace v top 13.
  • Palace have scored 2 goals only once at home v the top 13.
  • 15 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Everton away have beaten 10th, 11th, 15h, 18th, 20th.
  • Palace are inconsistent recently. Everton are inconsistent away.
  • Palace have scored 2 goals only once at home v the top 13. Something to work with if Palace score first? (lay them)
  • 2.68 the favourite and a lack of real motivation is a concern here.

15:00 - Fulham v Cardiff - 2.44 Fulham

  • Fulham are down. Cardiff MUST win in order to get Brighton into the relegation fight. Cardiff are 3rd bottom, Brighton are 4th bottom.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Fulham. A little too late! 2 consecutive clean sheets. And there was Cardiff hoping that they would roll over and get their tummies tickled.
  • Cardiff beat Brighton last away match. That was a vital win.
  • This is another vital must-win.
  • Cardiff are unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. 4-2 win v Fulham earlier this season.
  • Fulham have 4 wins in 4 at home v 15th and lower.
  • What the feck is with Fulham? 2 consecutive clean sheet wins. Just what Cardiff do not want to see. Both sides tend to fair very well v the bottom 5 which further clouds the judgement.
  • Needs must to lead us to Cardiff after that superb away win v Brighton which is the foundation to survival.

15:00 - Southampton v Bournemouth - 2.04 Southampton

  • 3 matches remain.Southampton are 6 points clear of relegation. A win nails survival.
  • Bournemouth are safe from relegation.
  • So, immediately, we would expect a highly motivated Southampton. Southampton have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches, winning only once there when they scored and conceded.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home. Only recent loss v Liverpool.
  • Only 3 clean sheets under new manager, and failed to score only twice under new manager.
  • Only 2 wins for Bournemouth since 2nd February came away v Huddersfield and Brighton. Not form to worry Southampton, I'd warrant.
  • no draw in 17 away for Bournemouth.
  • Bournemouth have a good winning record v 17th and lower but does that extend to 16th?
  • I would expect Southampton to score today so that is an angle.
  • Bournemouth tend to avoid the draw away - another angle?
  • Do we favour a motivated home side who will seek to ensure survival with a win tonight?

17:30 - Brighton v Newcastle - 2.32 Brighton

  • It seems a tussle between Cardiff and Brighton for that last relegation place.
  • Brighton hold the 3 point buffer to the relegation zone. Newcastle are safe from harm so can rest easy.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 for Brighton recently where they have failed to score. You don't score you don't win, you don't stay up.
  • Brighton have failed to score in their last 3 at home.
  • Newcastle have won their last 2 matches, and got their first win in 8 away v Leicester last match.
  • Newcastle may lack motivation today. When they needed points, they tended to look for a clean sheet and a 0-1.
  • Brighton must win. On seasonal form, I'm with the geordies but needs must... Can Brighton score?

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

There are 2 matches remaining this season generally speaking.
Teams still with something to play for:
  • Norwich. Top of the league by only 3 points. 6 points clear of 3rd place. A win therefore secures a top 2 berth.
  • Sheffield United. 2nd. Keen to retain automatic promotion instead of the lottery and heartache of the play-offs.
  • Leeds. 3rd - 3 points shy of 2nd place and automatic promotion. Doing a great job of throwing away their season.
  • West Brom - 4th. Can go 3rd but the key here is to retain a play-off place. Which they mathematically have.
  • Aston Villa - 5th. Will be in the play-offs after a majestic run-in.
  • Derby County 6th - 67 points. 7th (Middlesbrough), 8th (Bristol City),  9th (Sheffield Wednesday), 10th (Swansea City) can all possibly vye for the play-off places but 9th and 10th need some favours.
  • Ipswich 24th. Relegated. Cannot wriggle out of the bottom 3.
  • Bolton 23rd. As above.
  • Rotherham 22nd 40 points. Still have hope but relegation 3rd bottom is between them and Millwall realistically.
  • Millwall 21st 43 points. Relegation threatened.
  • Reading. 20th. You'd think they're safe now. Superior goal difference even if they lose their remaining 2 matches. Need a draw last 2 matches to stay up.
  • All others.....beware. Season over. Job done. Nothing to see here. Move along please.

SPL

12:30 - Celtic v Kilmarnock - 1.24 Celtic

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's Celtic. 4 matches remain with Rangers 9 points shy of Celtic. A win for Celtic today sees them Champions (or does it....as there are matches after the season-proper ends!).
  • I would take on those 2 0-0's today.
  • 5-1 win v Kilmarnock earlier this season. Celtic have conceded 2 goals only once this season at home so if Kilmarnock score first, lay them.
  • Kilmarnock away have only one win v the top 5. They have scored and conceded away v the top 2  but have not won.
  • Not sure I can trust this current Celtic who seem to be coasting but I would certainly lay any late 0-0. Kilmarnock are opposable if scoring first.

15:00 - Hamilton v Livingston - 2.55 Livingston


15:00 - Motherwell v Dundee - 1.78 Motherwell

Motherwell

  • 5 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last home match.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 3/3 wins v Dundee this season.

Dundee

  • 8 consecutive defeats, 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 14 and last 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Unsure as to motivation here. Motherwell are undoubtedly in good recent home form and are playing the right team for that to continue today.
  • Dundee have trouble even scoring so if scoring first, lay them.

15:00 - St Mirren v St Johnstone - 2.55 St Johnstone


SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Ath. Bilbao v Alaves - 1.6 Ath Bilbao

Atl Bilbao (7th)

  • 7 defeats for Ath Bilbao since 21st October 2018 all came away from home. So they will expect at home.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 home matches.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (41%).
  • Bilbao are unbeaten at home v the top 10.
  • 13 of their last 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Alaves (8th)

  • Not won in 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches and last 8 away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 14. Failed to score that 2nd goal.
  • Failed to score away v the top 6.

Conclusions

  • Ath Bilbao have saved their season. Their home form is excellent and I don't think they will lose today. Alaves struggle to score that 2nd goal v the top 14 so lay Alaves if Alaves score first. They have trouble even scoring away v the top 6.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Valladolid - 1.4 Atl Madrid

  • 9 wins and 2 losses in 11 matches for Atl Madrid. I trust this team.
  • Atl Madrid have failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins for Atl Madrid.
  • Atl Madrid have scored in their last 17 at home.
  • 47% 0-0's at halftime at home for Atl Madrid.
  • All wins bar a draw at home for Atl Madrid v 4th and lower.
  • 2/3 goals scored at home v 15th and lower.
  • Only 3 wins this year for Valladolid.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away.
  • 100% defeats home and away for Atl Madrid v the top 3.
  • Not beaten top 8 away.
  • I trust Atl Madrid as I said and am with them throughout, even if 0-0 at halftime (where I'd look to 2-0 2nd half).
  • High 0-0 at halftime both sides.

17:30 - Leganes v Celta Vigo - 2.25 Leganes

  • Leganes are 12th and and Celta Vigo are 16th. 4 matches remain this season.
  • Leganes are 7 points above the relegation zone.
  • Celta Vigo are only 2 points above the relegation zone.
  • This is a relegation six-pointer(ish).
  • No win in 4 for Leganes.
  • Only 3 home losses for Leganes saw them lose 0-1, 0-1, 0-2. So, if they score....they are likely not to lose.
  • 4 1-0 wins and a loss at home v 15th and lower.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded at home by Leganes came 1st half.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 for Celta Vigo came v Atl Madrid.
  • No win in 10 away for Celta Vigo.
  • Celta have conceded in their last 9 matches and last 5 away.
  • Celta have not beaten a top 13 side away from home.
  • Both sides need the points. Celta have been in excellent recent form....enough to usurp their poor away run v the top 13.
  • If Leganes lose this season at home, they tend not to score. So....if they can score, then we should expect draw worst case scenario.

19:45 - Barcelona v Levante - 1.28 Barcelona

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten since 24th November 2018. Reliable last match at 0-0 at halftime. Got the goal(s) we usually expect of Barcelona.
  • 9 wins in their last 10 matches at home.
  • 9 points clear at the top with a possible 12 remaining so must win today. Atl Madrid in 2nd have a winnable match.
  • Scored in their last 17 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss, a 3-4 v Betis was eminently tradeable.
  • 26 goals scored last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Levante (14th)

  • Only 3 wins this year.
  • May be 14th but are 3 points away from the relegation zone.
  • 3 goals conceded in each of their last 2 away matches. Music to Barcelona's ears.
  • Conceded in their last 13 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Needs must for both sides but Levante are suddenly leaking goals away against a Barcelona with that air of reliability about them. I'd expect 2+ goals of Barcelona and will keep faith if they fail to score first half.
  • Barcelona are great last 1/2 hour goal scorers.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Bologna v Empoli - 1.83 Bologna

Bologna

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 5 points above the relegation zone.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50% of matches).
  • 2 losses at home v 9th and lower v 13th and 19th
  • 2-1 loss to Empoli earlier this season.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Empoli

  • No win in 16 away.

Conclusions

  • A relegation six pointer.
  • On seasonal form, Empoli should not win - score draw is possible.
  • Strong 2nd half goals trend for Bologna.

17:00 - Roma v Cagliari - 1.47 Roma

  • Top 4 is within Roma's grasp. Cagliari are 11 points clear of relegation with 5 matches remaining.

Roma (6th)

  • Unbeaten in 4.
  • Only home loss since 28th October 2018 came v 2nd placed Napoli.
  • Scored last 11 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss outside the top 2.
  • 12/15 matches there saw 2+ goals scored.
  • 69% over 3.5 goals at home a high %.

Cagliari (11th)

  • Only Juventus have beaten Cagliari in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 away wins v 4th and 20th.

Conclusions

  • Cagliari's poor away form should be their undoing despite only Juventus beating them in their last 6 matches.
  • At their best, at home, Roma can score 2 goals and that will be a solid foundation.
  • An argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, particularly with 69% over 3.5 goals at home for Roma.

19:30 - Inter Milan v Juventus - 2.4 Inter Milan

  • Juventus are Champions so I will not research this match. In-play stats for me.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Schalke - 1.3 Dortmund

Dortmund (2nd)

  • 4 matches remaining. Dortmund must win all remaining matches and hope that Bayern draw/lose at least one of their remaining matches.
  • All 3 defeats came away.
  • No defeat 15 at home, 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 15 home matches.

Schalke (15th)

  • Only 2 win since 25th January.
  • 3 losses, a win and a draw last 5 away.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten top 8 home or away.
  • 6 point gap to the bottom 3 with 4 matches remaining. Near to safety but not there yet.

Conclusions

  • Who wins today? Pain (relegation) or Pleasure (Title)?
  • On seasonal form Dortmund should score 2 goals as a foundation to the win, what with Schalke's winless record v the top 8.
  • Schalke (2nd last year) may surprise (win and draw last 2 away) but on form, no.

14:30 - Fort. Dusseldorf v Werder Bremen - 2.3 Werder

  • Dusseldorf are 10th, Werder Bremen are 8th. Dusseldorf are delighted with their season.
  • Werder failed to score only in their last match against Bayern Munich. I think that they can revert to scoring ways today.
  • This is a dead rubber of sorts.
  • Werder Bremen have scored and conceded in all bar 3 away matches.
  • No draw at home for Dusseldorf this season.
  • I have a lack of enthusiasm about this match. I do feel that Werder will score again (if fully wound up) and may concede. I would lay Dusseldorf if they scored first.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin - 1.42 Frankfurt

Frankfurt (4th)

  • Only 1 loss this year.
  • 3 wins and a loss in their last 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 and last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 6 wins and a loss at home v 10th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded at home in all bar 1 v the top 14.

Hertha Berlin (11th)

  • 5 losses and a draw in their last 6 matches.
  • 6 losses and 2 wins in their last 8 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 13, came v 5th (did the double over 5th).

Conclusions

  • Hertha are free from relegation worries. Frankfurt are in good form and 3rd place is a possible.
  • Both teams could score today but I feel Frankfurt may not lose. Remember that they have failed to score in only 3 matches.

14:30 - Hannover v Mainz - 2.35 Mainz

  • A dead rubber. Hannover are down, Mainz are safe from relegation.

14:30 - Leipzig v Freiburg - 1.24 Leipzig

Leipzig (3rd)

  • 5 consecutive wins, unbeaten in 12 and a smattering of clean sheets.
  • Leipzig can sniff the title but need implosions from 1st and 2nd. 3rd is guaranteed.
  • Only home defeat v 2nd.

Freiburg (13th)

  • 11 points clear of relegation with 12 possible remaining. A realistic feeling of survival.
  • 2 draws and 3 consecutive losses.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8.
  • Not beaten top 8 away.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away v the top 15.

Conclusions

  • While it's mathematically possible, I suppose Leipzig can still dream but 1st or 2nd is highly unlikely. They are guaranteed 3rd place.
  • The recent momentum is very impressive and suggests the intensity may remain at home in what is a match with a tinge of dead rubbered ness to it.
  • Remember that Freiburg have conceded in their last 8 away matches so remember that, as well as their being unable to score 2 goals regularly enough away v the top 15 - lay them if they score first therefore.

17:30 - Stuttgart v M'gladbach - 2.05 Mgladbach

Stuttgart (16th)

  • 4 matches remain, 6 points shy of 4th bottom.
  • Only 1 win since 18th December 2018.
  • Conceded in their last 17 matches.
  • 100% defeats home and away v top 6.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach (5th)

  • Only 2 wins since 9th February were 0-1 away.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • 100% wins v bottom 4 home and away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, it is clear cut. Mgladbach win. But needs must for Stuttgart. Will they improve? Only 1 win since 18th December 2018 suggests not.