Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

2.42 about Leicester? In hindsight the best value of the century (apart from the buy one, get one free guinness on a Tuesday night at O'Sheas!). Live chat webinar today at 14:30.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/63874331423910925 is the link. Please register to attend. I hope this Saturday's live chat webinar is as good as last Saturday's.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.13 Man City

  • Match outcome: Man City have won 17/20 home matches while middle-third promoted teams have lost 63% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Man City have won by two or more goals in 13/20 home matches.
  • City's only 2 defeats came between International and Champions League. No excuses this time. They failed to score v Wolves but are expected to score 2+ goals today. Villa have scored and conceded in each of their last 4 matches. They did score away v Tottenham and Arsenal without winning.
  • Angles? 3/4 goals expected of City. Goal before halftime expected too.

15:00 - West Ham v Sheff Utd - 2.14 West Ham

  • Match outcome: West Ham have won 6/9 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have lost 63% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
  • Only 3 losses for West Ham came v Man City, Palace and Everton.
  • Sheffield United have lost to Leicester, Southampton and Liverpool. 1-0 win v Arsenal did catch Arsenal pre-Europa League and will a some-time changed side.
  • Sheff United are actually unbeaten away from home, albeit 3 draws in 4.
  • Angles? No clear cut angles for me here. I am surprised by Sheff Utd away from home. This suggests that they have a chance particularly with 2 consecutive defeats now for West Ham.

Watford v Bournemouth - 2.24 Watford

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 Watford home matches against middle-third teams and in 10/12 Bournemouth away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Bournemouth away matches.
  • Watford are bottom of the league and still have no win despite 2 consecutive draws and a very close near win v Tottenham latest.
  • In 5 of 9 matches, Watford have conceded 2 goals so they are vulnerable. They have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Bournemouth started with a both teams to score habit but 2 consecutive matches now have seen them fail to score v Arsenal and Norwich.
  • Bournemouth's 3 defeats have come v the current top 5.
  • Angles? On Challenge Table form, Bournemouth could concede but not lose. Watford, remember, will win eventually. They nearly pulled it off last match against Tottenham.

Brighton v Everton - 2.66 Everton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/15 Brighton home matches and they have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams. Everton have conceded first in 10/17 away matches.
  • 2.66 the favourite in this match. It suggests treading carefully.
  • Only 2 wins for Brighton came v Watford and Tottenham. Draw, Loss, Draw, Win at home for Brighton.
  • This Everton side were rightly evaluated as favourites last match, at home v West Ham.2-0 win.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Loss away for Everton. 0-0-1-0 goals conceded away by Everton.
  • Angles? This Everton are a strange bunch. Great v West Ham. Walcott back in the team and performing great.They are, though, unreadable and as such do not make for good trading vehicles.

17:30 - Burnley v Chelsea - 1.83 Chelsea

  • 1st goal: Burnley have scored first in 6/11 home matches while Chelsea have lost 7/11 away matches against top-half teams. Chelsea have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Is it noticeable that Burnley lost v Arsenal, Liverpool, and Leicester, 3 (Leicester arguably) top 6 candidates. Chelsea another top 6 candidate?
  • Win, Loss, Win, Win at home for Burnley, keeping clean sheets in those wins.
  • 3 consecutive wins for Chelsea. They have scored 2+ gals in 5 of their last 7 matches. Chelsea's only losses have come against traditional top 6 Man Utd and Liverpool.
  • Angles? If Burnley continue to find the traditional top 6 too hot, then lay them if they score first. Chelsea do have goals in them against the right side. This Burnley are in decent nick and may be hard to beat. A match between 2 well-matched sides.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Lecce v Juventus - 1.34 Juventus

  • Match outcome: Juventus have won 9/10 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 6/10 such matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • Lecce have beaten Torino and SPAL away.
  • No clean sheets for Lecce. Couple of 0-1 home losses but a 1-4 v Napoli should be what we expect of Juventus.
  • All wins bar a 0-0 for Juventus. 4 2-1 wins in 5 matches. So if Lecce win, we expect a Juventus comeback. They did it in the Champions League mid week too.

17:00 - Inter v Parma - 1.32 Inter

  • 1st goal: Inter Milan have scored first in 14/20 home matches while Parma have conceded first in 7/10 away matches. Inter Milan have won 13/20 home matches.
  • Great season for 2nd placed Inter. All wins bar a loss v Juventus.
  • Inter have scored in every match.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches for Parma came at home.
  • Parma have kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • Parma failed to score in their last 2 away matches.
  • Neither side have had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3/3 losses v top 7 away for Parma.
  • Angles? I must still be with Inter Milan. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats this season.

19:45 - Genoa v Brescia - 1.92 Genoa

  • 1st goal: Genoa have scored first in 7/8 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 68% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have lost 61% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
  • Only 1 win for Genoa. 5 losses in 6 matches for Genoa.
  • Only 2 wins for Brescia came away, 0-1 v Cagliari and Udinese. A recent 0-0 v Fiorentina.
  • Angles? Tough to read, these newly promoted sides who can pull off something like the 0-0 last match.
  • Genoa are themselves in poor form. Can they really be trusted! Yikes!

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Union Berlin - 1.13 Bayern

  • Match outcome: Bayern have won 9/11 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 56% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 69% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • Bayern have scored 2+ goals in all bar 2 matches.
  • Bayern have scored in every match. They lost their last home match 1-2 v Hoffenheim.
  • 2 wins for Union Berlin came at home.
  • The draw and 2 losses away for Union Berlin.
  • Angles. We logically expect a home win  and with Bayern failing to win their last 2 matches, this is redemption time for Bayern. Expect the home win and 2+ goals for Bayern.

Freiburg v RB Leipzig - 1.8 RB

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 SC Freiburg home matches and in 10/13 RB Leipzig away matches. RB Leipzig have won 10/13 away matches.
  • At last RB Brought it home when at 1.6 odds in their last match (after 4 matches without a win when 1.6 odds in all competitions).
  • A loss and 2 1-1 draws for Leipzig.
  • Win, Loss, Draw, Draw at home for Freiburg. Both teams have scored in Freiburg's last 3 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime for Freiburg came first match of the season.
  • Leipzig have scored in their last 8 matches.
  • Angles? I suspect Leipzig may get away with it against Freiburg today. They have only the one loss and are score drawing recent matches. Freiburg's wins this season have come v 11th and lower. They meet early season 5th today.

Schalke 04 v Dortmund - 2.18 Dortmund

  • 1st goal: Schalke 04 have conceded first in 7/8 home matches against top-six teams while B. Dortmund have scored first in 7/8 away matches against top-half teams. Schalke 04 have lost 7/8 home matches against top-six teams.
  • 2 losses for a much improved Schalke came v Bayern Munich and Hoffenheim (the latter a match I could not 'read' and hence did not play).
  • On the 4 occasions both teams have scored in Schalke matches, we see 3 wins and a draw.
  • Dortmund's only loss came away v Union Berlin. A run of 3 Desmond '2-2's ended with a 1-0 win last match. 1-3 win, 3-1 loss, 2-2 and 2-2 away might give Schalke some hope today.
  • Dortmund have scored in every match.
  • Angles? Dortmund are scoring and conceding with just a single win away. 3-2-2 goals conceded last 3 away matches for Dortmund. We may see both teams score today and remember Schalke's record. On 4 occasions both teams scored they had 3 wins and a draw but......Schalke did lose to Bayern. Are Dortmund on a similar level to Bayern? Dortmund have been unlucky in 2 recent 2-2's. Their opponents got the 2nd goal via an own goal. Tighten up this careless end to matches and Dortmund could turn a 1-2 into a win!

Paderborn v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 2.36 Paderborn

  • +2.5 goals: Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 F Dusseldorf away matches. F Dusseldorf have lost 7/11 away matches.
  • I will leave this match alone primarily because Paderborn are newly promoted and are, for me, unreadable. They score 2 goals v Leverkusen and Bayern Munich yet cannot score v newly promoted Koln, a side I suspected would be more to their liking. Only 2 wins for Dusseldorf this season. Their last match, a win, was the only time where both teams did not score.
  • Similarly, both teams have scored in all bar one of Paderborn's matches.
  • Will both teams score?

Hertha Berlin v Hoffenheim - 2.18 Hertha Berlin

  • 1st goal: Hertha Berlin have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Hoffenheim have scored first in 13/17 away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 12/19 Hoffenheim away matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Hertha ended a poor start to the season. 3 wins came v 2 newly promoted side and a newly promoted side from last season. Not strong form for me.
  • The mighty Hoff (all Hail to the Hoff), have started putting together a really eye catching run of wins v Bayern Munich and Schalke. 3 matches unbeaten away puts me firmly in their favour today. I just hope the reliable Hoff turns up as they have done in their last 2 matches.
  • Hertha have not had a 0-0 at halftime yet this season. Hoff have had 2 consecutive which dampens enthusiasm there.

17:30 - Leverkusen v Werder Bremen - 1.66 Leverkusen

  • 1st goal: Leverkusen have scored first in 9/11 home matches while W. Bremen have conceded first in 6/10 away matches against top-half teams. W. Bremen have drawn 5/8 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Only 2 losses for Leverkusen came away v Dortmund and Frankfurt.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw at home for Leverkusen.
  • 2 goals conceded by Werder in 6/8 matches this season. They scored 2+ goals in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • No clean sheets for Werder.
  • Werder have not had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3-2, 1-2, 2-2, 2-2 away for Werder Bremen.
  • Angles? Both sides wins have come v 13th and lower. They are 9th and 12th.
  • This suggests struggles v better sides. Both teams to score would be an obvious call unless these 2 cancel each other out. 2-1, 1-2, 2-2 scorelines might have some legs.

SPANISH LA LIGA

15:00 - Leganes v Mallorca - 1.92 Leganes

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Leganes home matches against promoted teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/8 such matches. Bottom-half promoted teams have conceded first in 62% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
  • Leganes are yet to win.All defeats bar 2 draws this season. 0-0-0-1-1 goals scored at home.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Newly promoted Mallorca have struggled. 3 consecutive away losses. 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • They failed to score in 5/8 matches  2+ goals conceded away by Mallorca.
  • Angles? It could be tough to discount Mallorca against a lesser side like Leganes who have only scored 0-0-0-1-1 at home. Mallorca tend to win at home and concede 2 away. An interesting match to follow via the in-play stats.

17:30 - Valladolid v Eibar - 2.48 Valladolid

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 Valladolid home matches and in 7/8 Eibar away matches against middle-third teams. Eibar have drawn the first half in 11/16 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • A match I will leave be. 2.48 the favourite.

20:00 - Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - 1.78 Atl Madrid

  • Match outcome: Atl. Madrid have won 12/17 home matches while Ath. Bilbao have lost 16/20 away matches against top-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 Ath. Bilbao away matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 for Atl Madrid.3 0-0's in 5 matches. That ended with a 1-1 v Valencia where, true to pre-Champions League form, Atl Madrid cocked up a 1-0 lead late on.
  • Atl Madrid are unbeaten at home, win win, draw, draw, draw at home.
  • Atl Madrid are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower and play 10th today.
  • Atl Bilbao have played 4 matches away, no wins, and have not scored, or conceded, 2 goals.
  • 100% under 2.5 goals for Atl Bilbao this season.
  • Angles? You may want to back 0-0 pre match if this Atl Bilbao defence clicks away. Atl Madrid have scored 2 goals only twice this season so may be very one dimensional if 1 goal is their maximum. If you think that is the case, lay Atl Madrid if they lead but cover the 1-0 scoreline.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Willem II v RKC Waalwijk - 1.49 Willem II

  • Match outcome: Willem II have won 6/9 home matches against promoted teams while Waalwijk have lost by two or more goals in 4/5 away matches. Willem II have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against promoted teams.
  • 3 wins in first 4 matches for Willem II scoring 2+ goals ended with an inability for Willem II to score that 2nd goal in any of their last 6 matches.
  • Basically, Willem II are favourites by default. All defeats bar a 3-3 for RKC Waalwijk.
  • Angles? Willem II are a tad goal shy but may be meeting the right side in order to resurrect their 2 goals scoring that started the season.RKC have failed to score last 3 away.

18:45 - Fortuna Sittard v VVV Venlo - 2.38 Fortuna Sittard

  • 1st goal: Sittard have scored first in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while VVV-Venlo have lost 12/19 away matches. Sittard have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

18:45 - Vitesse Arnhem v ADO Den Haag - 1.44 Vitesse

  • Asian handicap: Den Haag have lost by two or more goals in 9/15 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost the first half in 6/10 such matches. Vit. Arnhem have won 8/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Only 1 defeats for Vitesse came v PSV away from home, the only match in which they failed to score.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored by Vitesse in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home by Vitesse came 2nd half.
  • ADO have all defeats bar 2 wins this season. 2+ goals conceded away last 3 matches.
  • Angles? It looks like a Vitesse win waiting to happen. I expect 2+ goals of Vitesse today and that is an angle to go to war with.
  • The stats point us to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. The concern? 10 of Vitesse's 13 goals scored came 2nd half.

19:45 - Heracles v PEC Zwolle - 1.72 Heracles

  • Match outcome: H Almelo have won 12/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while Zwolle have lost 9/11 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Zwolle have lost by two or more goals in 7/9 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • Only 3 defeats for Heracles. 4 wins in 6 matches and a come from behind 1-1 v Feyenoord latest.
  • A draw and 2 wins at home for Heracles.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Heracles.
  • Heracles defeats came v the top 6. They play 13th today.
  • PEC have 3 defeats in 4 matches. 4 defeats in 5 away matches. No clean sheets for PEC Zwolle.
  • Angles? The Challenge table reveals that Heracles should not lose. They have been in solid recent form and play a PEC side losing away from home and failing to score.I would be surprised were PEC to get anything here.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

St Johnstone v Hamilton - 1.87 St Johnstone

  • 1st goal: St Johnstone have scored first in 12/19 home matches against middle-third teams while Hamilton AC have lost by two or more goals in 9/13 away matches. Hamilton Ac have had L/L double results in 11/18 away matches.
  • St J. are yet to win.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats yet are favourite. Is Diddy David Hamilton and Neil and Christine Hamilton playing up front for Hamilton?
  • St J have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches and in their last 3 home matches.
  • Hamilton's 2 wins came at home.
  • 2 of Hamilton's defeats this season came v the Big 2.
  • They have kept only 2 clean sheets.
  • Angles? Muddied waters. A side failing to score last 3 at home is odds-on favourite here? A match to monitor to see if the market is accurate. We might find ourselves with a short odds lay if St J lead and do not justify this mysterious favouritism.

Kilmarnock v St Mirren - 1.86 Kilmarnock

  • Asian handicap: Kilmarnock have won by two or more goals in 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Mirren have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. Kilmarnock have won 12/15 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Only 3 losses for Kilmarnock, 2 were v the Big 2. 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 0-0-0-1 conceded in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 wins for St Mirren.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Angles? This looks clear cut enough. Kilmarnock are in good form and it takes a good 'un to beat them.

Livingston v Hearts - 2.66 Livingston

  • Match outcome: Livingston have won 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hearts have lost 7/11 away matches. Livingston have won by two or more goals in 5/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 2.66 the favourite. No thanks.

Hibernian v Ross Co - 1.79 Hibernian

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/16 Hibernian home matches while Ross County have drawn the first half in 3/5 away matches. Ross County have conceded first in 3/5 away matches.
  • Only 1 win for Hibs came last match.
  • 3 consecutive 1-1 draws for Hibs. Hibs kept only 1 clean sheet first match of the season.
  • 3 losses for Ross County v Livingston, Aberdeen and Celtic. 2 of those losses came away from home. 0-0-2-0-0 goals scored away. The 2 goals was scored v red carded Motherwell.
  • Angles? Hibs are not electric but with Ross County failing to score away, only scoring v 10 men, Hibs are rightly favoured today.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

12:30 - Sundsvall v Helsingborgs - 1.73 Sundsvall

  • Match outcome: Helsingborg have lost 10/14 away matches and they have conceded first in 4/5 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 GIF Sundsvall home matches against bottom-half teams.

Sundsvall (14th)

  • 2 matches remain and must-win territory for 3rd bottom.2 wins, a draw and a loss last 4 matches. And note....only 4 wins all season. Sundsvall have woken up.
  • They have conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • 1-1 v Helsingborgs earlier this season.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 11th and lower.

Helsingborgs (10th)

  • 3 wins since 20th July 2019.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Needs must for Sundsvall and we have seen recently, in the Europa League, and Champions League, that must wins have tended to pull it off. So a match worth your while in monitoring with an eye on Sundsvall here.

15:00 - Kalmar FF v Falkenbergs - 1.72 Kalmar

  • 1st half outcome: Kalmar FF have drawn the first half in 8/9 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 Kalmar FF home matches. Falkenberg have lost 5/7 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • These 2 are bottom 4 sides. Falkenbergs are bottom of the league.
  • The winner takes it all, as fellow Swedish football analysts Abba might put it.
  • Both sides have had only 4 wins each all season.
  • Kalmar have failed to score in their last 4 matches, Falkenbergs in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No angles I'm afraid. What I would do is to lay any late 0-0 given needs must.