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ENGLISH FA CUP

The FA Cup, and all cup matches for that matter, are all about the in-play stats. Fear not, I will be live chatting and covering these. Look for obvious gaps in leagues (Middlesbrough v Newport; Shrewsbury v Wolves; Millwall v Everton, AFC Wimbledon v West Ham) and look for the in-play stats to confirm the status of the obvious favourites. I will not be researching these matches. They are listed below for reference.

12:30 - Accrington v Derby - 1.88 Derby


15:00 - Brighton v West Brom - 1.99 Brighton


15:00 - Doncaster v Oldham - 1.79 Doncaster


15:00 - Man City v Burnley - 1.11 Man City


15:00 - Middlesbrough v Newport County - 1.4 Middlesbrough


15:00 - Newcastle v Watford - 2.38 Watford


15:00 - Portsmouth v QPR - 2.38 Portsmouth


15:00 - Shrewsbury v Wolves - 1.56 Wolves


15:00 - Swansea v Gillingham - 1.5 Swansea


17:30 - Millwall v Everton - 1.77 Everton


19:45 - AFC Wimbledon v West Ham - 1.54 West Ham


SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Sevilla v Levante - 1.53 Sevilla

  • 0-0, 2-1 Levante and 2-6 Sevilla recent head to heads.

Sevilla (4th)

  • Only 4 losses all season but did lose their last 2 matches, away, 2-0.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 at home.
  • All wins bar 1 at home came v 12th and lower.

Levante (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Topsy turvy form. wins away v 3rd, 6th and 7th. Losses v 2nd, 13th, 16th and 18th.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Do Levante have a specific tactic v the top sides? They beat 3rd and 6th away, but lose to lowly sides.
  • They have failed to score only 3 times and may score today. Do note that. They may be layable if Sevilla continue their electric recent home form.
  • You might have to wait for the 2nd half for Sevilla to score so do not worry there.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Getafe - 1.6 Atl Madrid

  • 3 consecutive Atl Madrid wins in head to heads.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 7 wins in 8 at home.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (60%).
  • Conceded only 1 goal in 5 matches at home v the top 10.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Getafe (6th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 losses in 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 6 1-1's away ( 60%).
  • Have lost 3/3 v top 3.
  • 75% of goals scored and 80% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Getafe are in good form but 3/3 losses v the top 3 suggests they fall short and may do so again today. Atl Madrid are superb defensively and Getafe, if scoring, are highly unlikely to score a 2nd goal.
  • If you want to, back 0-0 pre match. Both sides have 60% 0-0's at halftime.

17:30 - Leganes v Eibar - 2.72 Leganes

  • 2.72 the favourite makes for an unappealing match.
  • Only 4 losses Leganes since 6th October 2018 plays only 3 losses Eibar since 6th October 2018.
  • Both sides 6 draws since 6th October. Both sides 3 losses since 6th October.
  • Leganes not played 9th-17th at home yet and meet 11th.
  • All in all, it is typical of a 2.72 favourite match. Identical recent form, missing form for home side makes for a no play.

19:45 - Valencia v Villarreal - 1.96 Valencia

  • 1-0 Villareal and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.

Valencia (9th)

  • Only 4 losses this season but 11 draws.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (50% of matches).
  • 6 1-1 scorelines at home.
  • Started scoring 2 goals at home v bottom 3, 2 wins and play bottom 3 today.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Villareal (19th)

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 wins all season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 14 matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 13 sides home and away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, with Valencia scoring 2+ goals and beating bottom 3 at home, then will we expect that v another bottom 3 side today?
  • Villareal are an absolute mystery to me. Bottom 3 for this team? What has gone wrong?
  • Remember only 1 clean sheet in 14 matches for Villareal.
  • Valencia's last 5 scorelines have been either 1-1 or 2-1. Something to work with?

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 kick offs

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock - 2.02 Aberdeen

  • 0-2 Kilmarnock and 1-2 Aberdeen last 2 head to heads.
  • 2 top 4 sides.

Aberdeen (4th)

  • No draw since 22nd September.6 wins in 7 matches.
  • 7 wins in 9 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home (9%).
  • Have lost to the top 2 at home. Not beaten the top 5 at home.
  • Did beat them 1-2 away.

Kilmarnock (2nd)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches. Only loss in 10 was v Celtic. Only 2 losses in 17 matches v Aberdeen and Celtic.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 10 of 12 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • Only 2 away losses. 5-1 loss, 1-1 , 0-2 win, 0-0 v top 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Slight nod towards Killy for me. Aberdeen yet to beat top 5 at home. But they are scoring 2 goals regularly. Killy have only 2 defeats in 17, v Celtic and ....Aberdeen.
  • In-play stats important here. Note Killy concede first half mostly so if Aberdeen are showing well shots wise you might want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Celtic v Hamilton - 1.13 Celtic

  • Celtic were similar odds v St Mirren last match at home and won 4-0 so expect similar today.
  • 1-0, 2-0 halftime score is a favourite of mine for teams at these odds.
  • Although we expect a spanking, Hamilton have lost 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 v top 3 away.
  • Value seekers back 0-0 pre match but if Celtic click, we will get short shrift. 3+ goals scored regularly by them of late.

Dundee v Motherwell - 2.12 Motherwell

  • Dundee took advantage of Hearts still being on holidays with a welcome 3 points. Can they follow up today in the 2nd match after the Christmas Break?
  • 4/4 wins for Motherwell in recent head to heads.

Dundee (11th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 8 goals scored, 21 goals conceded at home.
  • Not beaten any top 9 team at home, failing to score in 6 of those matches.

Motherwell (9th)

  • 2 consecutive wins and an impressive 1-0 v Hibs last match.
  • 2 1-2 wins in 3 away.
  • Only 4 clean sheets so require those 2 goals for the win.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • Conceded in each of their last 6 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3/3 wins away v 10th and lower includes an already 1-3 away win v Dundee.

Conclusions

  • On form, Motherwell should record another win but on form, Hearts were expected to do similar and Dundee won that match.
  • Dundee still though have not beaten any top 9 side at home, and are outscored in a near 1 in 3 ratio at home. Motherwell may concede but I feel that they will reply if conceding first.
  • Note no away draw Motherwell. Lay any late draw?

Hearts v St Johnstone - 2 Hearts

  • Hearts tend to go unbeaten v St. Johnstone but that was the same story v Dundee and they lost 1-2 to Dundee last match.

Hearts (6th)

  • Only 3 draws, 2 were 0-0.
  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • 12 of 14 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • Have beaten St J 2-1 at home and drew 2-2 away this season.
  • Only 1 home loss v 4th and lower.

St Johnstone (5th)

  • 3 consecutive wins and 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • 6 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 100% away wins v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I would side with St Johnstone on their recent defensively disciplined form. Despite Hearts scoring 12/14 goals at home 1st half and their only 1 loss v 4th and lower. I hope they are slovenly as they were v Dundee.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Sassuolo v Cagliari - 2.14 Sassuolo

  • 0-0 and 2-2 in 2018 gives us little in head to heads.

Sassuolo (12th)

  • Only 2 wins since 30th September 2018.
  • 5 draws and a 2-6 loss v Atalanta recently at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (30%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower home and away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home v 4th and lower.

Cagliari (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 10.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • 6 1-0 defeats away (60%) at halftime.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away.

Conclusions

  • I would have to favour Sassuolo on home form not to lose. They do have a strong both teams to score stat so note that.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given that Cagliari have a high percentage of losses at halftime away.

17:00 - Sampdoria v Udinese - 1.92 Sampdoria

  • Sampdoria are unbeaten in the last 3 home head to heads.

Sampdoria (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 came v Juventus.
  • That was the only match they failed to score 2 goals at least in, in the last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • Lost 1-0 to Udinese earlier this season but at home, 3/3 wins v 16th and lower.

Udinese (15th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (56%).
  • Only away win v 20th.
  • 88% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I am with Sampdoria on head to head form and on recent form, only beaten by Juventus. Simple angle.

19:30 - AC Milan v Napoli - 2.06 Napoli

  • 3 Napoli wind and a 0-0 in the last 4 head to heads.

AC Milan (4th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • A failure to score in 4 matches was a concern but alleviated now with 2 consecutive wins, scoring 2 goals.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Win at home recently is inconsistent.
  • 3/3 losses v the top 3 , 2 of those losses came away.
  • Only lost to 1st though at home of the top 9 played.

Napoli  (2nd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches. Only loss v Inter Milan away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 9 away.
  • Losses away v 1st, 3rd, 8th.

Conclusions

  • Both teams struggle v the top sides leading me to a watching brief only.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 kick offs

Dortmund v Hannover - 1.2 Dortmund

  • 1-0 Dortmund and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.

Dortmund (1st)

  • Only loss v Dusseldorf.
  • 8 wins in 9 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-4-0-7 goals scored v bottom 4.
  • 14 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour of matches.

Hannover (17th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 4 of the last 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 16 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • 3/3 losses away v top 5, conceding 3/4 goals.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away.

Conclusions

  • Dortmund have had a torrid time v Hannover. On away form, Hannover concede 3/4 goals v top 5 but v Dortmund it's 0-0 and 1-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home for Dortmund but I would actually back 0-0 pre match in case the head to heads come back to haunt Dortmund. Really though, they should be scoring 3/4 goals at least.
  • Note Hannover score and concede away.

FSV Mainz 05 v Nurnberg - 1.76 FSV Mainz

  • 1-1 last head to head.

Mainz (11th)

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches came v Leipzig and Dortmund.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches, only losing to Leipzig, Dortmund and Bayern Munich.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (56%).
  • 5 wins and 2 1-1 draws home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Nurnberg (18th)

  • 7 losses in 8 matches. Naturally opposable as bottom of the league.
  • Only 2 clean sheets. Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Not scored 2 goals v top 11

Conclusions

  • I have to be with Mainz just as I was with Hertha Berlin when they played Nurnberg. Both teams may score but Mainz not lose. Mainz have only tended to lose to really strong sides and Nurnberg are nowhere near that level.

Freiburg v Hoffenheim - 2.06 Hoffenheim

  • Both teams have scored in the last 11 head to heads. 1-1 and 3-1 Hoff last 2 head to heads.

Freiburg (13th)

  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in last 5 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home losses v 5th and 11th. Beat 3rd and 4th at home and recently.

Hoffenheim (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 11 came v Bayern Munich.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded in every away match.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 2 away losses v 2nd and 14th.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. Both teams have good home form (Freiburg only 2 defeats) and away form (Hoff only 2 defeats).
  • Freiburg's eyecatching wins v 3rd and 4th were relatively recent, albeit before the Xmas Break.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I cannot fully discount Freiburg today and expect both teams to score. Let in-play stats determine any trading angles and in what mood the mighty Hoff are in.

Mgladbach v Augsburg - 1.69 Mgladbach

  • The general rule for Mgladbach is to back them at home, particularly 2nd half if they have not scored by halftime.

Mgladbach (3rd)

  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice, away.
  • 100% win record at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in all home matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (62%).
  • 19 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Augsburg (15th)

  • 6 losses in 8 matches.
  • No win in 9 matches.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in 9 away and last 10 overall.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches away.
  • 67% of goals scored and 73% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Usual rules apply I feel. Could be 0-0 at halftime. Keep faith in Mgladbach scoring 2 goals at least. Note Augsburg have a 2nd half goals pattern too. Only 1 clean sheet suggests that they will concede.
  • You might want to back 0-0 pre-match.

Wolfsburg v Leverkusen - 2.62 Leverkusen

  • 3-3, 2-2, 1-2 Bayer and 1-3 Wolfsburg last 4 head to heads.
  • 2.62 leads me to basic research only.
  • 5 wins, a 2-2 and a loss last match sees the Wolf bite back in style.
  • They have failed to score only 3 times.
  • 2-1-2-2-2-1-2 goals scored at home v 3rd and lower, winning only 3 of those matches.
  • 3 wins in 5 for Bayer. They failed to score only 4 times.
  • Bayer kept only 4 clean sheets.
  • All of Bayer's losses this season came exclusively v the top 8. The Wolf are 6th.
  • Leverkusen conceded 2 goals at least in all aways v the top 9.
  • 2.62, I remind you, suggests an open match. On the seasonal form, it points to Wolfsburg capacity to score 2 goals against teams around Leverkusen's position in the league. A possible angle today particularly if Leverkusen score first.

17:30 - Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.64 home and away

  • Another match to tread warily with.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 for Werder saw them scoring and conceding in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came first match of the season.
  • Werder have scored in each of their last 18 matches.
  • Werder have lost to all of the top 4, and play 5th today, who they beat 1-2 away.
  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches for Frankfurt. Frankfurt have failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets for Frankfurt.
  • 6 losses for Frankfurt all season came v the top 9, seeing only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Werder.
  • Both teams to score has a good chance here. Other than that, Werder losing to top 4...will that stretch to 5th? Frankfurt losing to top 9...will they do so again?
  • As ever, we can make an equal argument for both teams.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Heracles v PEC Zwolle - 2.1 Heracles

  • Heracles, PEC, Heracles, Draw last 4 head to heads saw both teams score.

Heracles (8th)

  • 6 losses in 8 matches.
  • No draw at home saw only 2 defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in all matches.
  • 100% wins at home v 5th and lower.
  • 2-4 goals scored in those matches.

PEC (14th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • All defeats this season have come v top 12 sides.
  • 2+ goals conceded in away matches v top 11.

Conclusions

  • It does seem conclusive on seasonal form. PEC will not beat a top 12 side and are likely to concede 2 goals at least. Heracles 100% wins v 5th and lower at home compels as does their 2-4 goals in matches. Heracles do concede so watch out but maybe they can score their 2 goals again if conceding.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

18:45 - Excelsior v De Graafschap - 2.14 Excelsior

  • 4-1 de Graaf in the only recent relevant head to head.
  • Bottom 3 sides so not going to dwell on this one too long.
  • No draw at halftime at home for Excelsior. They have not played fellow bottom 5 sides at home.
  • De Graaf have not won an away match and failed to score in 6 of 8 away.
  • If Excelsior can beat 15th and 17th away, and they have home advantage today, does that automatically lead us to the home side?
  • It's a bit of a horror show form wise! In-play stats or move swiftly on.

18:45 - PSV v FC Groningen - 1.17 PSV

  • Absolute mayhem for the big guns in their first return from the Winter Break.
  • PSV are top, Groningen 13th. 2-2 v Emmen saw PSV through away the win.
  • PSV have scored in every match.
  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • 3+ goals scored by PSV at home in all bar 1 match.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches for Groningen so reasonable form. Groningen failed to score in their last 3 away matches, 2 consecutive 0-0's away which I would take on if 0-0 late.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Expect 3+ goals from PSV and for them to score 1/2 before halftime so the usual trick - wait 20 minutes then back 1-0, 2-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - VVV Venlo v Emmen - 1.96 VVV

  • 1-1 in the only recent Eredivisie head to head.

VVV (7th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 7 at home. Only Ajax beat them at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • At home v 11th and lower, 4 wins in 5 matches, and all clean sheets.

Emmen (15th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all away matches outside the top 2.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have led at halftime in 6/8 matches away.

Conclusions

  • VVV have an excellent record v 11th and lower, with all clean sheets. Emmen do score and concede away so who will out? The VVV defence?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. VVV should be the team to score first in the first half.