I hope you had a great Xmas. See you on Telegram only throughout the day. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Leicester v Man Utd - 2.30 Man Utd
- No draw yet for Leicester so it's simple. They win or lose. 3 wins in 4 matches. Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home is inconsistent.
- They have not had a 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches.
- 2nd v 3rd here today and Leicester are 2/2 in defeats to nil v the top 4. Is that significant? In fact, in 3 attempts at home, they are yet to score or beat the top 10.
- 6 wins and a draw for Man Utd who at last transferred that impressive 3+ away goal record home in an emphatic 6-2 spanking of Leeds. Reverting to away today, their usual modus operandi has been to cock things up away from home first half, send in the cavalry 2nd half and score 3 goals. A simple and effective formula.
- Man Utd, therefore, have scored and conceded last 6 away and scored 2+ goals last 6 away.
- Angles? Leicester's counter attack put Tottenham to the sword, albeit the 2nd goal was extremely lucky own goal. But they will need 2 goals + if this 3+ goal United turn up again.
- The market recognizes the fact that these 2 are top 3 sides so thinks this may not be as simple as 'another 3 goals away thanks' for Man Utd.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I cannot see Leicester keeping another clean sheet today, that's for sure. Both teams to score a strong angle and on that away form, I must favour United unless the in-play stats tell me otherwise.
15:00 - Aston Villa v Crystal Palace - 1.95 Aston Villa
- The enigma that as Aston Villa. They are on a run of 3 clean sheets all of a sudden and 2 away wins and a 0-0 v a vastly improving Burnley. A relatively easy task v a 10 man West Brom, did see Villa score the 3rd 80th+ minute goal in 3 matches. So watch out for that and for El-Ghazi who is turning up late to score.
- 3 defeats and a draw at home though for Villa. With this new found clean sheetery translate to home matches?
- A 100% win record v 11th and lower AWAY for Villa is worth a mention as they play 13th today with home advantage but have that woeful home record.
- 2/3rd of Villa home goals came 2nd half.
- Only 1 win in 6 for Palace came against West Brom, so form not that hot. They are coming off a 7 goal spanking by Liverpool and we usually see an over reaction defensively to such a spanking.
- Palace have conceded in their last 13 matches and last 7 away.
- 2/3rd of their goals scored and conceded away came 2nd half.
- Angles? Strong 2nd half goal trends both sides. On ultra recent form, we are with Villa but they have to overcome a woeful home record. Do we, though, focus on the 3 clean sheets and 2 away wins recently as a sign of a defence clicking? Watch out for late goals. 3 post 80th minute for Villa and El-Ghazi if it is tight or they are losing come 76th minute.
15:00 - Fulham v Southampton - 2.30 Southampton
- 2 1-1 draws and a 0-0 sees Fulham really tighten things defensively. Take away a recent loss v Man City, and it's Win, Draw, Draw, Draw for Fulham. They are going to get that defence tested today by Southampton who uncharacteristically failed to score v Man City, but as I allude to above, let's ignore Man City formlines. Take that City match away and Saints have failed to score only in the first match of the season and should be licking their lips at meeting a newly promoted side.
- At their best Saints have 2 goals in the locker. The market is luke warm only because of this ultra recent set of draws for Fulham, not conceding that 2nd goal. Prepare for a defence v attack match and I have the subtle feeling that Southampton may have too much fire power. Please check team news though. Ings went off against Man City and may be the key to goals confidence for Southampton.
17:30 - Arsenal v Chelsea - 1.91 Chelsea
- Ah, yes, the Arteta Daley revolution. Dodgy ain't the word!
- I will not be researching this because a) it is a London derby and b) Arsenal, and Arteta's tinkering with his forward line, makes them unreadable.
20:00 - Man City v Newcastle - 1.12 Man City
- Newcastle apparently have 2 key players in long term Covid illness.
- 8th v 12th, yes City are 8th.They reverted to poor form last match at home with a 1-1 and I thought they would continue their 2+ goals wins of the previous 2 home matches.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches which is a solid foundation City are a 1.12 shot who have only scored 0-1-1 goals recently.
- City have not met 3rd-14th at home.
- 9/12 goals scored at home for City came 1st half.
- Only 2 wins in 6 for Newcastle came v Crystal Palace and West Brom. As I say, we may have to view them in light of the Covid absentees.
- 1-1 away v 6th and 2-0 away v 7th for Newcastle.
- Angles? the market expects 3+ goals from a City only scoring 0-1-1 goals recently. They expect City to score before halftime and City at home score 3/4 goals first half. Newcastle may be weakened by Covid absentees which may skew their previous form.
20:00 - Sheffield Utd v Everton - 1.80 Everton
- A good draw, down to 10 men, v Brighton for Sheffield United but this season it's 2 draws and all other defeats.
- Sheff Utd have not kept a clean sheet.
- 4 consecutive defeats at home.
- Sheff Utd have scored and conceded v the top 5 and play 4th today. They have lost all of those matches.
- Everton are back in form, with 3 consecutive wins and very impressive wins too v the likes of Chelsea, Leicester and Arsenal. Rock solid in contrast with today's opponents.
- And on that basis I will leave the research. If Everton continue in this manner, they must be the obvious selection. Sheff Utd will win a match but when? Sheff Utd may score but note all defeats v the top 5 when scoring.
12:30 - Rangers v Hibernian - 1.25 Rangers
- Top 3 clash here.
- Rangers are yet to meet the top 3 at home. 2-2 v Hibs last time.
- 100% win record at home for Rangers scoring 2 goals minimum.
- Hibs are yet to beat the top 4 this season. 3-0 and 2-0 away defeats.
- Angles? It does not augur well for Hibs today. We expect worst case for Rangers to be a score draw.
15:00 - Aberdeen v St Johnstone - 2.00 Aberdeen
- 4th v 9th.
- Only 3 defeats for Aberdeen, 2 v the impressive Rangers. 3 consecutive clean sheets. Defence clicking.
- They have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
- 0-1 win only v St Johnstone earlier this season.
- All wins bar 1 at home for Aberdeen v 3rd and lower.
- 3 draws and 3 losses last 6 matches for St Johnstone.
- They have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- 2-3-2-1-3 goals conceded away by St Johnstone recently.
- 12 goals conceded by St Johnstone in the last 15 minutes of each half away. They have scored 5 goals away in the last 15 minutes.
- Apart from Rangers, St Johnstone away have score drawn 2nd, 3rd and 5th.
- Angles? Score draw best case for St Johnstone today. They do have a very worrying concession rate away which could see Aberdeen clear today.
15:00 - Dundee Utd v Motherwell - 2.37 Motherwell
- 5th v 10th. Dundee United have an unbeaten record v 9th and lower home and away. 0-1 win v Motherwell last time these 2 met this season.
- At home Dundee United have 4 wins and a draw, 3 of the wins were 2-1, one was 2-0.
- 2 of 3 losses away for Motherwell came v the top 2. Their other defeat came away v 12th.
- Angles? As ever, these odds give both sides a chance. I do like Dundee United's form here , consistently scoring 2 goals at home in wins v 12th and lower.
15:00 - Hamilton v Celtic - 1.17 Celtic
- 11th v 2nd.
- Hamilton are yet to beat a top 5 side this season. 5-1 loss to Celtic earlier this season is the kind of a scoreline associated with a 1.17 quote.
- 100% defeats for Hamilton v the top 3 home and away, failing to score at home v the top 3.
- Celtic have a 100% win record v 9th and lower and have, alarmingly for Hamilton, scored 3-4-5-2-5 goals v the bottom 3, where Hamilton reside.
- Angles? Celtic delivered last match. i.e. 20 minutes at 0-0, back Celtic 0-1, 0-2, any unquoted halftime score market. They did it last match with a 24th minute goal so watch for that pattern today.
- At their best, Celtic will score 2 goals bare minimum.
15:00 - Kilmarnock v Livingston - 2.60 Kilmarnock
- 8th v 6th.
- A 1-3 Killy win v Livingston last time these 2 met.
- All 3 Kilmarnock wins came v 5th and lower at home.
- Livingston are unbeaten away v 9th and lower and meet 8th today. Will their unbeaten run extend one position higher? Or will Kilmarnock do the double? Welcome to 2.6 the favourite.
15:00 - Ross County v St Mirren - 2.60 St Mirren
- 12th (bottom) v 7th.
- 3 Ross County wins were 1-0 only v 9th and lower. 1-1 the last time these 2 met. V 6th and lower at home, 1-1, 2-2, 1-0 win and 0-2.
- St Mirren v 9th and lower have a 1-0 loss, 0-1 win, 0-1 win.
- Angles? Another unfathomable so says the market. 1-0 pervades these 2 as far as wins is concerned. 1-0, 0-1,1-1 the obvious scorelines if this pattern continues.
15:00 - Barnsley v Huddersfield - 2.15 Barnsley
- Not too hot on my Northern England geography but is this not a derby of sorts?
- 13th v 12th.
- Barnsley have not had a draw since 27th October, 2 of the 5 losses came at home. They are on a run of 3 2-1 wins in 4 matches and 2 consecutive 2-1 home wins.
- Barnsley have conceded in their last 8 matches.
- Only 1 win for Barnsley v the top 14 was a 1-0 home win. They have conceded 70% of home goals 2nd half.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 matches undone by a Bournemouth beating for Huddersfield so if that defence clicks today, they may buck the market.
- But they have failed to score in their last 4 away matches.
- Only 2 away wins v 3rd and 16th.
- Angles? Please note I do not normally research the English Championship precisely because of matches like this. Tough to fathom, no strong form lines for Huddersfield. Lay any late draw based on Barnsley?
15:00 - Blackburn v Sheffield Wed - 1.75 Blackburn
- 3 defeats in 4 for Blackburn. 4 wins and a loss at home though recently is solid. 4 of those scorelines were 2-1 so they like to concede and therefore find it necessary to score 2 goals to get the win.
- Blackburn have therefore scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
- 11th v 23rd today, Blackburn will be confident having recorded all of their 8 wins home and away v 13th and lower, of course scoring 2+ goals without exception.
- Bad news for SHeffield Wed is that Blackburn have 9 goals to nil in 2 wins v the bottom 3.
- Say it along with me because I've been sharing this with you each live chat webinar. Sheff Wed have not scored that 2nd goal since the first day of the season. Simple angle. If they win, it will be what? 0-1! So lay them if they score first on the assumption that a 2nd goal will not follow from them.
- Blackburn should be confident, the market is a tad lukewarm.
15:00 - Bristol City v Wycombe - 1.83 Bristol City
- 4 defeats and a win for Bristol City in recent matches yet they retain favouritism here.
- They have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 home matches. They have actually failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- With 7 0-0's at halftime at home and only 1 at fulltime, you have the green light to lay any 2nd half 0-0. You might even want to back 0-0 pre match and hope for a 0-0 at halftime to cash out.
- 5 wins and a loss, 3 home wins v 18th and lower, and 9th placed Bristol City meet 24th today. So the market likes this bit of form.
- City have scored 5 goals 2nd half in the last 15 minutes of matches so watch out for that.
- With only 2 wins, a poor Wycombe will struggle against a City side failing to score recently.
- Wycombe have no win in 10 and in 5 away and have conceded in their last 10 away.
- They have lost all away matches v the top 14.
- Angles? This is a good time to meet Bristol City, not scoring and losing but bottom side Wycombe don't look equipped to take advantage with no win in 10, 100% defeats v the top 14. Prepare for a 0-0 at halftime 70% chance with City suggests you may want to back 0-0 pre match to cash out as late as possible. Bristol City have a good 100% win record at home v 18th and lower.
15:00 - Cardiff v Brentford - 2.30 Brentford
- 10th v 4th.
- 5 wins and 2 defeats last 7 matches for Cardiff. 2 losses in 3 matches for Cardiff. 3 wins and a loss last 4 home matches for Cardiff.
- Cardiff are yet to beat the top 10 at home and yet to score that 2nd goal.
- Cardiff have scored 9 goals in the last 1/2 hour of home matches.
- They meet a Brentford on a solid run. They have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches without losing and are unbeaten in 13 and in 6 away.
- Brentford are yet to beat the top 7 and yet to play 8th-12th away.
- In 10/13 matches played v teams 7th-21st in the league, Brentford have scored 2+ goals.
- 8 goals scored last half hour away for Brentford.
- Angles. The last half hour has seen these 2 come to life. Remember that if a quiet match goals wise up until them. I would side with Brentford not to lose. Can we rely on the fact that Cardiff tend not to beat the top 10 at home?
15:00 - Coventry v Stoke - 2.60 Stoke
- Only 1 loss in 9 matches for Coventry sees them not concede more than 2 goals in those matches.
- 0-0, 1-0, 3-1, 0-0, 0-0 at home recently. A few 0-0's and a 2 match 0-0 sequence at home. I like taking on these 0-0 sequences.
- Stoke have 2 0-0's in their last 3 matches but their 0-0 sequences ended last match with a 1-0 home win.
- 3 0-0's in 4 matches away for Stoke.
- 0-0 pervades these 2 recently.
- Stoke have kept 5 consecutive clean sheets away.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away for Stoke saw 4 at fulltime.
- 18th v 7th. Stoke are unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
- Angles? 0-0 pervades these 2. Is it too obvious to back 0-0 pre match and cash out as late as possible?
15:00 - Derby v Preston - 2.45 Derby
- Derby are unbeaten in 6 matches. 4 consecutive clean sheets and yet again, not inserted as shorter priced favourite on the basis of this recent form.
- 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home for Derby.
- Only 1 home win for Derby was a 2-0 at home v 3rd. That was the only match in which Derby had scored 2 goals. This happened last match. Is this a sign of changing fortunes at Derby and more 2 goal scoring games?
- 7 goals conceded at home by Derby in the last 15 minutes of matches.
- 4 losses in 5 matches away for Preston.
- They have conceded in their last 9 away matches and in stark contrast to Derby, have 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
- 74% of goals scored away by Preston came 2nd half.
- Angles? This is tough to predict as Derby county are clearly turning a corner and have, for the first time, scored 2 goals in their last match, a 2-0 win. What also puts me off about this match is under 2.5 goals v over 2.5 goals.
- I used to rely on that Derby 1 goal max pattern but obviously that is at risk now.
15:00 - Middlesbrough v Rotherham - 1.70 Middlesbrough
- 3 consecutive wins for Middlesbrough, make that 4 consecutive home wins and Boro will be feeling confident this Boxing Day.
- 6 clean sheets in 8 home matches sees a potential plan coming to fruition.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home for Boro, only 1 at fulltime.
- 6th v 21st today.100% home wins for Boro v 13th and lower.
- Only 4 wins for Rotherham. They'll have trouble breaking that Boro momentum today.
- 7 consecutive away defeats, Rotherham have not won in 9 away.
- 2 of Rotherham's 3 wins have come v the bottom 2. 6/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Angles? If form lines continue, Middlesbrough will eye the win today. Note they do 0-0's at halftime at home, but rarely fulltime.
15:00 - Nottingham Forest v Birmingham - 2.30 Nottm Forest
- Only 4 wins plays only 5 wins here in another tough match to call.
- 6 losses and a draw for Forest has ended with a win and a draw. Shoots of recovery?
- The reverse has happened for Birmingham. 2 wins ended with 3 defeats.
- 20th v 17th Notably, Forest are unbeaten at home v 18th and lower.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away for Birmingham Birmingham have not met the bottom 5. 0-0's away v 18th and 19th.Birmingham are unbeaten away v 14th and lower.
- Angles. Yet again, as equal an argument can be made for both sides v lower 1/3rd sides. Both sides win infrequently.
15:00 - QPR v Swansea - 2.45 Swansea
- No win in 7 for QPR. 3 draws in 4 matches.
- 19th v 3rd.
- QPR have not met the top 4 yet at home. 3/3 draws v 5th-7th at home.
- Only 3 losses in 15 matches did come away from home.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 matches and 3 2-0 wins amongst those matches, why are the Swans not favourite?
- Only 1 loss home and away v 13th and lower for the Swans has me wondering further why they are not favourite.
- Angles? This is why I don't like researching the Championship. The market is a mystery to me. I'd be with the Swans but there must be a reason why they give QPR a chance.
15:00 - Reading v Luton - 2.15 Reading
- 3 defeats in 4 for Reading and 2 consecutive home defeats saw both teams score.
- No draw in 10 at home for Reading. Reading have scored in their last 9 matches and last 4 at home.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home for Reading, none at fulltime.
- 8th v 14th today. Reading have lost at home v 15th and 16th Significant?
- 10/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 4 wins in 16 matches for Luton.
- Luton have failed to score in their last 4 away matches.
- Luton have kept clean sheets in 3/4 matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime away for Luton, only one at fulltime.
- Luton have lost all away matches without scoring v the top 10.
- Angles? Reading are not in the most dazzling of form but if Luton cannot even score v the top 10, then that affords Reading a chance if they can score today. They have scored in their last 9 matches and last 4 at home.
- Both sides have a good conversion rate of 0-0's at halftime to goals at fulltime.
19:45 - Watford v Norwich - 2.62 Watford
- Watford have only 4 defeats all season, 3 were 1-0 so that might allow an instant angle in? If Watford score, lay them but cover the 0-1.
- That 1-0 habit ended last match away to Huddersfield - a 2-0 defeat.
- 5th v 1st, 2 1-1 draws at home for Watford v 2nd and 4th.
- Watford have scored 11 goals in total in the first 15 minutes of each half.
- Only 1 loss since 17th October for Norwich sees you wondering why they don't edge favouritism?
- 5 consecutive wins, all scoring 2 goals and 4 of them were 2-1 might suggest they'll leak a goal at least.
- Norwich have scored in their last 10 and last 8 away. v 6th-12th away, Norwich have 100% wins. They play 5th today.
- Angles? We must respect the market. 2.62 the favourite suggests that it is too tough to call. For me, Norwich just edge it on form, but note Watford have 2 1-1 draws v the top 4 at home so may be tough to beat.