Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A good profitable live chat last night and I hope for more of the same today. 14:30 start here at delayreacttrade.com, simultaneously broadcast via Twitter @drtclub.
I will do a shortlist of matches at DRT Facebook. I will put into bold the key shortlisted stats below for those who don't like Facebook.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Swansea v Bournemouth - 2.84 Swansea

  • Bournemouth have dominated recent head to heads, home and away.

Swansea (19th)

  • Are in a downward spiral at the moment.
  • 6 defeats in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches this season.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home and that resulted in a win v Huddersfield.
  • No home draw.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Not played 13th and lower at home yet.
  • Opponents scored first in 5/6 at home.
  • Opponents led at halftime in 4/6.

Bournemouth (13th)

  • 3 wins in 4 sees them hitting a bit of form.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets but have kept 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • No away draw.
  • Not played the bottom 3 yet. Wins have come v mid table teams.

Conclusions

  • Note Swans are yet to meet 13th and lower at home so we do not know if they will be better v bottom half.
  • Similarly Bournemouth are yet to meet the bottom 3. So we lack anything to gauge this match by.
  • Strictly on very recent form, you would have to say momentum is with Bournemouth with 3 wins in 4 and 1-2 and 0-1 away wins. Tight but wins all the same.
  • Is this enough to favour the away side in this match?

15:00 - Newcastle v Watford - 2.26 Newcastle

  • 2 goal-a-game Watford take on Pulis wannabes Newcastle who just love a 1-0 (unless they are playing Man Utd).

Newcastle (11th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats. 2 were 1-0 which tells you that when Newcastle do not score as part of their plan to win 1-0, they are in trouble!
  • 3 wins and a draw at home bookmarked by 2 defeats.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Are yet to beat a top 14 team.
  • 4 of 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Watford (8th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Watford have scored 2 goals in every away match but lost their last 2 away matches.
  • No win in 3 away again despite scoring those 2 goals.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding bias.

Conclusions

  • So we have 1-0 merchants playing 2-goal-a-game merchants. Who will out?
  • I do think personally that Newcastle are vulnerable to teams with a strong attacking bias.
  • With NEwcastle wins coming exclusively v 15th and lower, I think they will be vulnerable to Watford today.
  • I take Watford to score one, if not two, goals today.
  • Both teams have strong 2nd half biases so if 0-0 at halftime, fear not.

15:00 - C Palace v Stoke - 2.14 Palace

  • Palace have won the last 3 home head to heads.

Palace (20th)

  • Bottom of the league.
  • 2-1, 2-2, 2-2 at home is very encouraging. Noticeably 2 of those positive results came v a London based team.
  • Still not kept a clean sheet.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win at home was v a pre-Champions League Chelsea.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Stoke (15th)

  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • We see 2-2's for Palace last 2 home matches. We see 2-2's last 2 matches Stoke. Surely it is too 'obvious' to put up a 2-2 today?
  • These 2 are defensively frail so perhaps that 2-2 has legs?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

15:00 - Tottenham v West Brom - 1.27 Tottenham

  • 3 consecutive 1-1 results ended with a 4-0 Tottenham win in head to heads.

Tottenham (4th)

  • 3 losses, 2 losses in their last 2 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 6 teams.
  • 1-1-0-1 scored at home v 7th and lower.
  • Scored first in 4/6 at home.

West Brom

  • 2 1-0 wins came in the first 2 matches of the season.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 losses and a draw in the last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • No away draw.
  • Top played the top 5 away.
  • Not scored away until the 61st minute.

Conclusions

  • West Brom are in trouble. The usual Pulis 'tough-to-beat' feature is missing this season.
  • There is a slight concern with Tottenham that they are not scoring that 2nd goal at home v 7th and lower.
  • Tottenham have tended to score first and if West Brom do not tend to score until the 61st minute away, it is obvious to suggest Spurs are the first goal scorers and therefore no real trade here.
  • Tottenham have had a high % of 0-0's at halftime so do not be surprised in that regard but do expect this Tottenham side (if none the worse post Champions league) to win as they should, 3 consecutive home wins now.

15:00 - Man Utd v Brighton - 1.2 Man Utd

Man Utd (2nd)

  • 2 losses came last 2 away matches and were both post-Champions League. This is a post-Champions League match but United are at home.
  • 100% home wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored 4 goals at home on 4 occasions.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home and led at halftime in 4/6 at home.

Brighton (9th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 came away.
  • Not met the top 5 away.
  • Not beaten top 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Man Utd have lost the last 2 post-Champions League matches but those were away. We should expect a home win, scoring 2+ goals.
  • Brighton have lost 3 and drawn 1 away v top 13 teams so on form should struggle.

17:30 - Liverpool v Chelsea - 2.24 Liverpool

  • I tend to leave these high profile matches alone. Very much a case of 'best on the day'

SPANISH LA LIGA

15:15 - Real Madrid v Malaga - 1.1 Real Madrid

  • 2-1 and 0-2 Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • 2 losses this season.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches. Back on track?
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 2/3 goals scored in wins v 14th and lower.

Malaga (18th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins, the only wins this season.
  • Failed to score in an away match. 3 consecutive 2-0 away defeats.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It does look like a 2-0 or 3-0 Real Madrid win today.
  • Real Madrid are unbeaten at halftime this season so should Malaga score first before halftime, lay them in the halftime market.

17:30 - Betis v Girona - 2.04 Betis

  • No head to heads since 2015.

Betis (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • 12 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 mins at home.

Girona (11th)

  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • 4 2-1 scorelines in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive 1-2 wins away.

Conclusions

  • Girona are having a superb season for a newly promoted side and on current form cannot be discounted.
  • Both teams could score given Girona's recent both teams score pattern and Betis's scoring of 2 goals at least in each match at home.
  • If Betis continue to score 2, they may well add to another 2-1 scoreline in a Girona match?

19:45 - Levante v Atletico Madrid - 1.54 Atl Madrid

  • No head to heads since May 2016.

Levante (12th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • There have been 6 0-0's at halftime and only one at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win in 6 at home.
  • 1-1 draws at home v 2nd and away v 3rd.
  • v teams above them at home, 1-1-3-1-1 goals scored. That 3 looks anomolous.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/7 at home.

Atl Madrid (4th)

  • Unbeaten.
  • A season ended really with 6 draws.
  • 3 wins in 4 away.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 away matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
  • All wins away v 13th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Levante are not in best form at home and, bar an anomolous 3 goals v teams above, they tend to score just that single goal.
  • Atl Madrid have beaten all teams 13th and lower and should eye the 3 points today. Their 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals suggests they will not go to town and this could be a 0-1 or 0-2 if Madrid win.
  • Madrid tend to score 2nd half so if 0-0 at halftime, fear not and keep the faith.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:00 - Dijon v Toulouse - 2.18 Dijon

  • Dijon are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads.

Dijon (13th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches but only 4 wins all season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3 losses at home v top 6 teams.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 matches home and away v teams 7th and lower.

Toulouse

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 3 of 4 wins were 1-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All away defeats v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Another tough to call match. Toulouse away defeats were v top 5 but they have not played teams mid table so little to gauge v today's 13th who are not in good form with 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Dijon, v 7th and lower, tend to score and concede. Will that happen today? Toulouse have had 4 clean sheets in 5 matches. This makes this match one for me to leave alone.

19:00 - Montpellier v Lille - 2.16 Montpellier

  • Lille have won the last 2 head to heads.

Montpellier (8th)

  • Have only scored 2 goals in a single match once this season.
  • For all of that, they have only lost one match in 8.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches, 7 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Win at home v 17th, draw at home v 18th.
  • All 5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lille (19th)

  • 2 wins in their last 3 matches were the only wins this season.
  • Failed to score in 4 aways but suddenly scored 3 goals in their 2nd last away match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not met the top 10 away but losses v 11th, 12th, 15th and 18th suggests struggles v a defensively robust Montpellier.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No respite today for Lille I don't think. Montpellier look well placed to at least not lose today.
  • They are defensively strong so you feel if they score, that should be enough.
  • It should all kick off 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime. There is a strong chance of a goal-less first half in Montpellier matches.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Bologna v Sampdoria - 2.42 Bologna

  • Bologna have won the last 2 home head to heads, Sampdoria have won the last 2 home head to heads.

Bologna (10th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side home or away.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • Only 2 defeats came away from home.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 10 matches this season.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Bologna will be vulnerable if scoring first so lay them if they do score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Sampdoria have a strong scoring pattern. 2 goals again today?
  • Bologna may score first half but that may not be good enough.

17:00 - Sassuolo v Verona - 1.71 Sassuolo

  • No head to head since May 2016.

Sassuolo (16th)

  • Only 3 wins. Did win their last match.
  • No home win yet.
  • Failed to score in 5 at home, and they are favourites?
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • 0-1 away win, 0-0 at home and 1-2 away win v teams below them in the league.
  • Have not scored first or led at halftime at home.

Verona (19th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 matches as well as last 5 away matches.
  • Only win was v 20th.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo are not that hot this season but remain unbeaten v teams below them in the league, where Verona reside.
  • It is likely to be a tight match. Sassuolo's last win was only care of a red card changing the match.
  • We may see an uneventful match with a possible 1-0 win, unless Verona continue to concede 2 goals. Remember Sassuolo have failed to score in 5 at home. Ordinarily that is not the form of strong favourites!

19:45 - Cagliari v Inter - 1.6 Inter

  • 1-2 Cagliari and 1-5 Inter in the last 2 head to heads.

Cagliari (13th)

  • No draw.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 home wins.
  • Not played the top 10 at home.
  • Lost all matches home and away v top 11.
  • No 0-0.

Inter Milan (2nd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Only 3 draws.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Have actually lost 1-0 twice at halftime away but as I say not lost a match yet.
  • All wins home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A slight unknown here as Cagliari are yet to meet the top 10 at home but they have lost all matches played v top 11 home and away.
  • I cannot see Inter losing on form today. They are in good form and have no European distractions.
  • If Inter are losing at halftime, fear not. They have done so twice and not lost the match.
  • A real chance of a title bid this season for Inter. They should continue as per their form. All wins home and away v 12th and lower in the league.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Wolfsburg - 2.16 Augsburg

  • The away team has won the last 3 head to heads, 2 wins for Augsburg.

Augsburg (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 home matches, 1-2, 1-2, 1-1 last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 4/6 at home.

Wolfsburg (13th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 7 consecutive score draws ended with a win last match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • For me Wolfsburg have shown, with those score draws, that they can get back if conceding first so that is how I will enter this match. If Augsburg score first, I will lay them.
  • Augsburg remember have conceded in a 1-2, 1-2, 1-1 scoreline last 3 at home.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Freiburg v Mainz - 2.54 Freiburg

  • 4-2 Main and 1-0 Freiburg in the last 2 head to heads. Those don't reveal much.
  • Note the odds suggest a tough-to-call match.

Freiburg (17th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win was a 3-2 v Hoffenheim.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home loss came last match.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only loss came v 2nd in the league at home.
  • 4 draws at home so not winning as they could.

Mainz (12th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 was v the same team who beat Freiburg at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 0-0-1-0-1 goals scored away.
  • Not played bottom 5 away but at home 3 wins out of 3.

Conclusions

  • Not for me, this match, the market is right. I would not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime.

14:30 - Dortmund v Schalke - 1.81 Dortmund

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Dortmund (5th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches were the only defeats this season.Dortmund scored 2 goals in 3 of those defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 matches.
  • Only home losses v top 3.
  • Scored first in 4/5 at home.

Schalke (2nd)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Away losses v 6th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • Dortmund are likely to score today so note that. They have lost at home to top 3 teams and play 2nd today.
  • What chance Dortmund concede 2 goals yet again? It is worth laying Dortmund, particularly if they lead 2-0.
  • Schalke are doing well with recent clean sheets but have lost v 6th and 8th so may be vulnerable.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Werder Bremen - 1.53 Leipzig

  • The home team tends to win head to heads.

Leipzig (3rd)

  • Another good season.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 4/5 at home.

Werder Bremen (16th)

  • Only 1 win came last home match, a 4-0. The enigma that is Werder Bremen. Are they back on track?
  • No away win.
  • 0-1-1-0-0-1 goals scored away.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • All defeats v top 7 home and away.
  • Not scored first or led at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Werder are not the Werder we know and love, but is this sudden goal surge at home v Hannover a sign of good things to come? Normally with Werder they are bankers for a goal at least before halftime in their matches and for both teams to score, particularly away.
  • But they have failed to score in 3 aways and lost all matches v the current top 3.
  • I would have to side with the market today given that emphatic losing run v top 7 home and away and lay any Werder lead.

17:30 - Mgladbach v Bayern Munich - 1.47 Bayern

  • 2 consecutive Bayern wins, 0-2 and 1-0 in head to heads.

Mgladbach (4th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not played the top 6 at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half. 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bayern

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only that defeat.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 4 2-0's at halftime in 5 matches. We profited from this last weekend.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 2 matches.
  • Scored first in 5/6 away.

Conclusions

  • Mgladbach have failed to score only once but note that they are yet to meet the top 6 at home so a relative unknown there.
  • Bayern could score 2 goals again and that should be enough. They are post-Champions League. Will fatigue play a part?
  • Bayern do tend to score first away so unlikely we will see a trading angle.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

18:45 - Groningen v Feyenoord - 1.61 Feyenoord

  • 0-5 and 2-0 Feyenoord in the last 2 head to heads.

Groningen (13th)

  • Scored and conceded in 10 matches this season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v teams above them in the league.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • No away 0-0 and no 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only loss away v 1st in the league.
  • 7 goals scored away came within the first half hour of matches.
  • Scored first in 5/6 away.

Conclusions

  • We layed Feyenoord last week and it came off as they only drew 1-1. They are in poor form at the moment.
  • We could see both teams score today - look at Groningen's form.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. IF it is a going day for Feyenoord they are highly likely to score first half.
  • Lay any late 0-0
  • In-play stats were used last week to lay Feyenoord late. I will do the same today as the in-play stats can tell us if it is a going day for Feyenoord.

19:45 - Heerenveen v Zwolle - 2.02 Heerenveen

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Heerenveen in the last 2 home head to heads.

Heerenveen (8th)

  • Only 1 win in their last 6 matches. 4 losses this season all came in these last 6 matches.
  • BUT 2 consecutive clean sheets. A sign of an end to the hiccup?
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • All defeats this season v top 6 teams.

Zwolle (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats and did lose their last match.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • 2 0-0's in their last 3 aways.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 2 defeats came v top 3 teams.
  • 4 draws away though despite not losing v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • The market has sided with the home team. Zwolle have only lost v top 3 teams so should on form be favoured.
  • I would tentatively side with Zwolle today although I am worried about their draws away - 4 of them.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Hamilton v Hibernian - 1.74 Hibernian

  • 1-3 Hamilton in the last head to head.

Hamilton (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Beat Rangers 0-2 last match but now Rangers have 2 consecutive losses. Did Hamilton catch them at a moment of a decline?
  • Scored 2+ goals in 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded at home v teams above them in the league. 4 defeats and a draw.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Hibernian (3rd)

  • 3 losses only.
  • Unbeaten away from home.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Hamilton were coupon busters last weekend in beating Rangers 0-2 AT RANGERS!
  • Hamilton have now scored 2 + goals in 3 consecutive matches.
  • On season-long form, they tend to score and concede without beating teams above them in the league and with Hibs in 3rd and unbeaten away from home, ON FORM Hibs should be favoured.
  • But then, ON FORM, Hamilton should have lost away to Rangers last weekend.
  • An interesting match to follow this afternoon with an eye on Hibs maintaining good away form, Hamilton scoring and losing (again) v top sides at home BUT, if the in-play stats signal a going day for Hamilton, I will be prepared to switch to the home side.