Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The French Open begins tomorrow so it would be interesting to do a football/tennis combined live chat webinar for Sunday. It is a real mish-mash of football today, and I am not sure it warrants a live chat webinar. I will do a 15:00 to 17:00 live chat webinar just to cover the 15:00 kick-offs and maybe discuss how to prepare for a Grand Slam tennis tournament as far as trading is concerned.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5993655985352845836 is the link. Please register to attend.

GERMANY DFB Pokal

19:00 - Leipzig v Bayern Munich - 1.59 Bayern Munich

  • The Final.
  • Only 1 win for Leipzig in 7 head to heads.
  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • It is tough to research a Final. In-play stats will be used here.

ITALIAN SERIA A

  • One match remains this season.

17:00 - Frosinone v Chievo - 2.46 Frosinone

  • This is a dead rubber between 2nd bottom and bottom of the league. They cannot progress.

19:30 - Bologna v Napoli - 1.82 Napoli

  • Napoli are guaranteed 2nd spot and the best Bologna can get is a top 10 spot so that, as well as being the last match of the season, may be me clutching at straws to argue for significance in this dead rubber.
  • A fine end to the season for Bologna saw them beaten away by solid yardsticks Atalanta and AC Milan. 6 consecutive home wins suggests the fans are hungry for a big scalp final day?
  • 2+ goals scored by Bologna in those 6 matches.
  • Bologna have a 100% loss record v the top 3.
  • 20 of 25 goals scored by Bologna at home came second half.
  • 4 consecutive wins for Napoli even if they do not need to win.
  • 4 wins in 5 for Napoli. They have not assumed holiday mode it seems.
  • Napoli have scored and conceded in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • 3-2 win v Bologna earlier this season.
  • This may be a competitive match despite its dead rubber status. We have a Bologna seeking momentum at home after a fine run, and seeking that coveted bragging right that comes with a top 10 finish. Nothing for Napoli to play for but that has not stopped them winning.
  • I could see both teams score today.
  • Watch for 2nd half goals. A very strong trend for Bologna at home especially.

SPANISH COPA DEL REY

20:00 - Barcelona v Valencia - 1.62 Barcelona

  • The Copa Del Rey Final.
  • I think it is tradable with a natural bias to Barcelona.
  • 2 consecutive score draws between these 2 might see a competitive match.
  • Barcelona have not tended to lose head to heads. Does that continue on into the Final?

AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA - last match of the season and a league split into Championship and Relegation Group.


16:00 - Wacker Innsbruck v Mattersburg - 1.71 Wacker Innsbruck

Wacker

  • 10 losses and 3 wins in their last 13 matches.
  • 5 losses and a win last 6 matches at home.
  • No draw in 13 and in 6 at home.
  • 3 losses and a win in the relegation group at home.Lost 3-1 to Mattersburg earlier.
  • Only beaten Hartberg home and away.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal.

Mattersburg

  • In better seasonal form.only 3 losses in 13 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Scored last 9 away.
  • Mattersburg unbeaten at home in the Relegation Group. 3 2-1 losses away and a 0-2.

Conclusions

  • Relegation group for these 2.
  • No strong angles I'm afraid. I thought I would cover the league because it is usually a very tradable league.

16:00 - Hartberg v Admira - 1.94 Hartberg

  • This is the Championship Group. It is the last match of the season-proper.
  • I think we are still under the normal season until this match is played.
  • 9th v 10th. 0-1 loss and 2-3 win for Hartberg v Admira this season.
  • Only 1 home loss v 7th and lower was v Admira.
  • Admira come alive v 9th and lower away with 2 0-1 wins and a 1-3 win.
  • Tough to call this one I'm afraid.

16:00 - Rapid Vienna v Rheindorf Altach - 1.77 Rapid Vienna

  • 3rd v 7th in the traditional season.

Rapid Vienna (8th)

  • Only 2 losses in 10.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Scored last 6 at home.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Struggled at home only really v the top 6. 1-1 and 2-2 though v Altach this season.
  • 2-2-1-2 goals scored v bottom 4 at home.

Altach (11th)

  • Only 2 away wins v 5th and 10th.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 is good form and includes a 2-2 v Rapid Vienna.

Conclusions

  • I would give Rapid the nod here today even if Altach score one or two goals.
  • I think score draw is worst case for Rapid today.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

8:30 - Beijing Reinhe v Tianjin Teda - 2.4 Tianjin

  • 2.4 the favourite makes limited appeal but let's research the match.

Beijing Reinhe (16th)

  • Bottom of the league.
  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • No clean sheets.
  • 2-2-1 goals scored in their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 3/4 at home.

Tianjin Teda (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw away saw both teams score.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away came last match.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • All 3 defeats came v the current top 5.

Conclusions

  • 2.4 must always be respected. The market cannot split the sides but on seasonal form, I'd have to be with the away side who have only lost v the current top 5 this season.
  • Both teams may score today and if Renhe scores first, lay them based on seasonal form.
  • There is a strong pattern for goals before halftime but a small sample. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market you early risers.

12:35 - Hebei CFFC v Jiangsu Suning - 2.3 Jiangsu

  • Another apparent toughie. 2.3 the market not appealing.

Hebei (15th)

  • Only 1 win came away.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • All defeats v the current top 10.

Jiangsu (5th)

  • 3 losses came away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored and conceded last 5.
  • Not played 11th or lower away or bottom 3 home or away this season.

Conclusions

  • A match lacking any form for the away side v 11th and lower or the bottom 3 so no contextual form. With Jiangsu 5th, can we rest our conclusions on the fact it's 100% defeats for Hebei home and away v the top 10 this season, conceding 2 goals at least in all bar 1.

12:35 - Wuhan Zali v Tianjin Tianhai - 1.95 Wuhan

Wuhan (13th)

  • soccerstats.com as Tianjin as the home team but 2 other websites have Wuhan as the home team.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home. 2 1-1 draws and a 2-3 loss.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • All defeats have come v the current top 5.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals away.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Tianjin (14th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Sole away win v 12th 2-3.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I am assuming Wuhan are home side. If it proves different then the research will be wrong.
  • These 2 are struggling early doors. There is a strong both teams to score pattern which we may see. Note Wuhan 100% over 2.5 goals at home so if 0-0 at halftime, take it on. If 1-1 draw, you may want to lay it.

ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO

15:00 - Newport v Tranmere - 2.6 Tranmere

  • Play off Final and rightly, the market hasn't got a clue. In-play stats or bust here!

SCOTTISH CUP

15:00 - Hearts v Celtic - 1.35 Celtic

  • Head to Heads are the only way to open up the door here in this Cup Final.
  • The last 4 Head to Heads have been won by Celtic 0-3, 5-0, 1-2 and 2-1. So the last 2 have been competitive and required 84th and 90th minute winners from Celtic so watch out for this pattern.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - RKC Waalwijk v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.3 RKC

  • 0-0, 2-1 RKC, 1-3 Go Ahead, 1-4 RKC. Inconclusive head to heads. Where did that emphatic Go Ahead win suddenly come from?
  • This is the first of 2 legs. There is nothing else I can research in this regard.

19:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v De Graafschap - 1.78 Sparta

  • As above, head to heads are the starting point.
  • 2nd in Eerste Divisie plays 17th in Eredivisie so there are no recent head to heads and, having played in different leagues all season, comparison of form would be flawed.
  • Let the in-play stats be your guide.

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION - 3 matches remain

15:00 - Majadahonda v Cordoba - 1.22 Maja

  • All to play for for Maja who are bottom 4. Cordoba cannot escape the bottom 3.

Maja (19th)

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only played one of the bottom 3, a 1-0 win v 21st.
  • Failed to score 2 goals home and away v 18th and lower.

Cordoba (20th)

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home.
  • 4 defeats and 2 draws last 6 matches away.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 18th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Vital part of the season for Maja who can escape relegation if they put together a winning run. The market expects today despite Maja not scoring that 2nd goal v 18th and lower - a major flaw.
  • Cordoba's away record really is poor that it should give Maja the boost they need. Maja are in really poor form. This is not a bank job but the market thinks this poor side suddenly will hit the winning trail.

17:00 - Osasuna v Las Palmas - 2.4 Osasuna

Osasuna (1st)

  • Only 2 losses since 2nd December 2018.
  • 15 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 19 at home.
  • All wins bar 2 draws this season.
  • Have not conceded that 2nd goal this season.

Las Palmas (12th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches came at home.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 14.

Conclusions

  • As my close showbiz pal Toyah Wilcox might say 'it's a mystery' why Osasuna are not strong favourites here. They still need some points with only a 4 point lead at the top of the table. They are inimitable at home, 15 consecutive wins and have not conceded 2 goals at home all season. Why therefore the 2.4 the favourite quote? There is always a reason. There are 3 matches remaining as far as I can tell so business is not yet concluded.

17:00 - Sporting Gijon v Albacete - 2.15 Sporting

  • Albacete will be fully wound up with a possible automatic promotion place in their grasp. They are 6 points shy of it so a win today is required to ensure that if 2nd place slips up, Albacete are there to pounce.

Sporting Gijon (9th)

  • No win in 5 saw 2 losses which came away.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 at home.
  • Loss v 1st at home but 1-0 wins v 2nd and 4th.

Albacete (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 10 came v Mallorca who they did the double over.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away v the top 14.

Conclusions

  • Must wins for Albacete but away from home they are poor and struggling to score 2 goals. Will this afflict them today? If so they are layable if leading. Gijon are on a good home run and have 2 1-0 wins v 2nd and 4th so the suggestion if Gijon lead may be to lay them but cover the 1-0 insurance (we lay them in the hope Albacete play like a team needing points, and not as per away form this season!).

ITALIAN SERIA B

20:00 - Benevento v Cittadella - 1.83 Benevento

  • 4 consecutive wins for Benevento. I think this is a 2 legged play-off. I think it is important to note that Benevento's 2 goals came after Cittadella were red carded.
  • During the season, Benevento scored a massive 15 goals in the last 15 minutes of home matches.
  • They scored in their last 10 at home in the league. Citadella had a poor away record in Seria B with only 3 0-1 wins. If Citadella score first, lay them but cover the 0-1 insurance.
  • I have said it before. I do like Benevento and their ability to score.

PORTUGUESE CUP

17:15 - Porto v Sporting Lisbon - 1.91 Porto

  • This looks like a day for Cup Finals throughout Europe and here is another. It is going to be a humdinger this one for 2 bitter rivals.
  • The only thing I can work from is head to heads.
  • All goals in the last 4 fixtures have come 2nd half so this may reward a backer of 0-0 pre match, along with 1-0 and 0-1 to triple the profits.
  • 1-1 and 2-1 last 2 matches (Porto win) suggests similar scoreline if 0-0 at halftime? 1-1, 2-1, 1-2?
  • It looks far too tight to call based on head to heads.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:00 - Konyaspor v Akhisar - 1.52 Konyaspor

  • This is a dead rubber. Konyaspor are safe in 7th and cannot get to a Europa League place. Akhisar are bottom of the league. That is the likely reason why Konyaspor are such strong favourites. Last match of the season.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

15:00 - Hacken v IFK Goteborg - 2.1 Hacken

Hacken (2nd)

  • 2 losses this season. 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home. 0-1 was the loss.
  • All wins have come v the teams 10th and lower.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

IFK Goteborg (4th)

  • Win, Draw, Win, Win, Win, Draw, Draw. The 2 draws were 0-0.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Not played top 3 away.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Limited form. But note the 2nd half scoring if 0-0 at halftime. Note also that IFK tend to score and concede. Slight concern with Hacken that wins have come v 10th and lower. They play early season 4th today so that solid home form needs that context.

15:00 - Malmo v Eskilstuna - 1.2 Malmo

Malmo

  • Only 1 loss. 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Not met 11th and lower at home but beat 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AFC

  • Only one win first match of the season.
  • All defeats away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2/3 goals conceded in all bar 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • Market looks spot on. Malmo should score 2/3 goals today. They limped over the line 1-0 last match and if 0-0 at halftime, we should really expect 2-3 goals. I would back 1-0 insurance, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 something like that if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Remember only 1 clean sheet for AFC and 100% away defeats.

17:00 - Helsingborg v Falkenberg - 1.78 Helsingborg

Helsingborg (13th)

  • Only 2 wins came in their 1st 2 home matches.
  • Draw, Draw, loss last 3 home matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 4 of 5 defeats came away. Only home defeat v 3rd.

Falkenberg (16th)

  • Only win came 1st match of the season.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 4 defeats, conceding 2+ goals, and a 0-0 away.
  • No goals scored or conceded first half hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Helsingborg's lowly position is down to their away form. They look adept at home. They have not kept a clean sheet so should Falkenberg score first I would lay them - 4 defeats away conceding 2+ goals.
  • Score draw looks worst case scenario for Helsingborgs today.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

  • Please remember that this is early season in a secondary league so any patterns may not be ultra strong.

15:00 - Frej Taby v Varberg - 1.75 Varberg

Frej (12th)

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Win and 2 draws last 3 at home.
  • Not played the current top 9 at home, or the current top 2 home or away.

Varberg (1st)

  • All wins bar a 1-1 draw last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away without losing.
  • Not played 10th-15th away.

Conclusions

  • Research sullied by a lack of form lines. Frej not played top 9 at home, Varberg not played 10th-15th away but what we have points us naturally towards Varberg not losing even if they concede. Remember only one clean sheet for Frej.

15:00 - Halmstad v Degerfors - 1.73 Halmstad

Halmstad (15th)

  • Only 2 wins, 0-1, came away from home.
  • 3 losses and a draw at home.
  • Not played top 6 at home but lost to 7th, 8th while scoring.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Degerfors (6th)

  • Win, Draw, Loss, Win away.
  • Solid record early season away v 13th and lower, 1-1, 2-3 and 1-4.

Conclusions

  • On the form we have available, what the Friar Tuck are Halmstad doing as odds-on favourites? 15th in the league, their opponents have 2 wins and a draw v 13th and lower away. Further, Halmstads have lost to 7th and 8th at home and play 6th today. Both teams have tended to score and if the form is true, Halmstads should not win even if scoring.
  • But why are they 1.75 favourites? Degerfors playing in clown shoes?

17:00 - Jonkopings Sodra v Brage - 2.00 Jonkopings

Sodra (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • Not played the top 10 at home.

Brage (3rd)

  • Draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Draw, win, loss, win away.
  • V top 6 this season Loss, Draw at home and loss away 1-0.

Conclusions

  • Is there a pattern of struggle with Brage v the current top 6? Will that continue today? Big gap in form for Sodra though - not played the top 10 at home so we really cannot gauge them at home v the form sides.