DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 25, 2017
There were no real surprises yesterday. I hope you traded when Georgia scored first as Serbia had the fire-power to equalise and push on, which they did. More International football today and more short priced favourites allowing us a trading angle if they concede first as Georgia did. Sunday sees England's turn.
Why no live chat? Well the research is not strictly stats based. Where are the halftime score stats? Where are the season-long stats? Not here. Form is intermittent. See you next weekend when the leagues return.
17:00 - Sweden v Belarus - 1.55 Sweden
- Sweden have only beaten Luxembourg and Bulgaria. Sweden drew with Netherlands and lost 2-1 v France.
- Sweden are 3rd in the group.
- Belarus seem out of it as far as qualification is concerned. Only 1 win in 13 World Cup qualifiers was against Georgia.
- 0-0 v France, 4-1 v Netherlands, 1-1 v Luxembourg and 1-0 v Bulgaria loss.
- Belarus I think will be set up to frustrate although their positive draws have occured with home advantage.
- I would back 0-0 pre match today and hope it remains 0-0 until halftime when I will trade out.
17:00 - Switzerland v Latvia - 1.16 Switzerland
- Switzerland are top of Group B and Latvia are a minnow side.
- Switzerland are unbeaten in World Cup qualifiers since October 2008.
- 2-3-2-2 goals scored in 4 wins. The Swiss did concede against Andorra and Hungary.
- Latvia beat Andorra 1-0 but lost to Faroe Islands, Hungary without scoring and 4-1 v Portugal.
- 1.16 suggests 3/4 goals minimum. The Swiss, though, are not known for their goals. 2/3 goals minimum from the Swiss today. Taking 1.16 odds on faith, we enter the realm of 3-0, 3-0 and any other home win territory.
17:00 - Bosnia v Gibraltar - 1.03 Bosnia
- This is all about how many goals Gibraltar will concede. 4-4-6-3 goals conceded so far.
- Bosnia beat Estonia 5-0 so let that be your starting point for a correct score. 5-0, 6-0, 7-0.
17:00 - Andorra v Faroe Islands - 1.65 Faroe Islands
- 26 consecutive defeats for Andorra in World Cup qualifiers.
- 13 consecutive home defeats, failing to score in 10 of those matches.
- Faroes were easily beaten by the big guns but a 0-0 v Hungary and a 0-2 win v Latvia suggests to me that they have the beating of fellow minnows Andorra.
- That is how I will enter this match. 0-1, 0-2 possible away win.
17:00 - Cyprus v Estonia - 2.02 Cyprus
- Group H is an impossible task for these 2, given other sides include Belgium, Greece and Bosnia.
- 9 matches without a goal for Cyprus ended with a win v Gibraltar.
- Estonia too beat Gibraltar but lost against other sides.
- These 2 will be eyeing this as a winnable match but I will leave this Clash of the Titans alone.
19:45 - Bulgaria v Netherlands - 1.57 Netherlands
- The Netherlands used to have an imperious International record but they are now not so reliable as their squad is in transition.
- No draw for Bulgaria in 8 World Cup qualifiers.
- Bulgaria struggled to beat Luxembourg 4-3, lost 4-1 to France, 3-0 loss v Sweden, and 1-0 win v Belarus.
- Interestingly, Netherlands have lost only one World Cup qualifier since September 2001.
- Netherlands drew 1-1 v Sweden, beat Belarus 4-1, lost 0-1 v France and beat Luxembourg 1-3.
- Netherlands should not lose today. They look more defensively sound than Luxembourg and Belarus. I could see 2 goals at least from Netherlands today.
19:45 - Belgium v Greece - 1.34 Belgium
- 1st and 2nd in Group H. Good luck to Greece in keeping this Belgium side out!
- 11 wins and a draw for Belgium in their last 12 World Cup qualifiers.
- Belgium have conceded only 1 goal so far and scored 3 goals + in all matches.
- Greece are unbeaten in 11 World Cup qualifiers. Great on the face of it but here is a list of the teams Greece have played - Lithuania, Liechtenstein (twice), Latvia, Gibraltar, Cyprus and Estonia.
- A match v Bosnia - a better quality side - saw a 1-1 draw.
- I expect a comfortable win for Belgium tonight. Greece - great form v poor teams. Belgium is a sudden step up. 3 goals again from the Belgians? Back Belgium if Greece score first.
19:45 - Portugal v Hungary - 1.32 Portugal
- 2nd and 3rd in Group B and a win (dependent on the Swiss result) could see Portugal top of the group.
- 6 wins in 7 for Portugal and the only loss was v Switzerland.
- Portugal are unbeaten in 13 home matches. They scored 4+ goals v the minnows in Group B, Hungary we would not describe as minnows.
- A 0-0 with Faroes was a shock of sorts for Hungary. A 2-3 loss to leaders Switzerland encourages, and 0-2 and 4-0 wins v the minnows was expected.
- I do think that Hungary will be competitive today. It is difficult to foresee how Portugal will play given they have beaten the minnows in Group B with relative ease. A match for the in-play stats with a bias towards Portugal. I hope Hungary are as competitive as they were v Switzerland. I would lay them if they led.
19:45 - Luxembourg v France - 1.06 France
- France Lead Group A.
- 4-1-1-3 goals conceded by Luxembourg so far in this campaign. The 1-3 loss at home to Netherlands should given an indicator for what France should achieve.
- 0-0, 4-1, 0-1, 2-1 France. 0-0 and 0-1 away from home. Are the 1.06 odds too optimistic?
- 1.06 shots are expected to lead at halftime and score 4+ goals. If the match is 0-0 after 20 minutes I will get interested.
- A correct score 4-0, 6-0. 8-0 assumes Luxembourg will not score.