16:00 - Mexico v Russia - 2.44 Mexico

• Another confederations cup match which is tough to predict.
• 2-2 and 2-1 for Mexico to date. They are scoring 2 goals at least.
• Russia showed v Portugal their ultra defensive bent. That said, head to heads between Russia and Portugal had always been tight.
• 2-0 v New Zealand and 0-1 loss to Portugal for Russia.
• I would actually favour Mexico today. Russia for me look rather limited and I would lay Russia if Russia score first. Mexico look like they have goals in them.

16:00 - New Zealand v Portugal - 1.13 Portugal

• 3 of the 4 goals conceded by New Zealand so far have come away. Note that Mexico were 1.16 odds and only scored 2 goals 2nd half.
• So, despite the 1.13 odds suggesting 3/4 goals from Portugal, do not be surprised with a huff-and-puff 0-2 2nd half goals Portugeuse win.
• That said, Ronaldo will teach New Zealand a thing or two.

17:00 - Valerenga v Lillestrom - 2.3 Valerenga

• 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 7th v 10th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Valerenga

• Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
• Failed to score only twice.
• Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
• Scored in their last 7 at home.
• Only 1 home loss.
• No 0-0.

Lillestrom

• 3 consecutive wins and a 1-1 draw with league leaders. Good stuff.
• 5 consecutive matches with both teams scoring ended last match.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• All defeats have come v the top 7 this season home and away.
• No 0-0.
• 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Lay the late 0-0.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Valerenga.
• Both teams could score today. I would actually side with Valerenga given that Lillestrom keep losing to top 8 sides.
• I would expect a goal from Valerenga more confidently than one from Lillestrom.
• If Lillestrom have not scored first half, they have a high probability of scoring 2nd half.
• I would take a chance and lay Lillestrom if Lillestrom score first.

18:30 - Limerick v St Pat's - 2.18 Limerick

• 0-2 Limerick last head to head.
• This is 7th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division.

Limerick

• Only 3 clean sheets.
• 3 goals conceded in each of their last 2 home matches.
• Conceded in their last 10 matches.
• No 0-0.
• 2 of 3 losses came v the big 2 at home.
• Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

St Pat's

• Only 1 win in 11 matches.
• All draws this season were score draws so no 0-0.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• Both teams scored in the last 5 aways.
• No win in 5 away.
• 100% over 1.5 goals.
• Only 3 defeats away v 2nd, 8th and 10th.

Conclusions

• I would not discount a 1-1 today
• I would expect 2 goals at least as had occured in all St Pats matches.
• Lay St Pats if St Pats score first.

19:45 - Czech u21 v Denmark u21 - 1.73 Czech u21

• 1-2 Denmark the last time these 2 met.
• Since June 2015, only Belgium u21 and Germany u21 have beaten the Czechs.
• Recent Czech form is questionable, albeit winning form. Playing the likes of Moldova, Latvia, Malta, Montenegro, the Czechs are expected to win those.
• 2 consecutive defeats for Denmark u21 were v Italy u21 and Germany u21.
• The Danes also had a solid winning run v the likes of Romania, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Wales.
• Tough to call this one. The winning form for both sides, while it impresses on paper, is inconsequential given the opponents the teams have played.
• No trading angles for me.

19:45 - Italy u21 v Germany u21 - 2.4 Germany u21

• Like the Mexico v Russia match the odds are tight here.
• Germany u21 have been as consistent as ever. Italy u21 have lost recently to Spain u21 and Czechs u21. They did score in defeat.
• We could see both teams score today and I feel Italy u21 not win. That would be my angle.

TENNIS

AEGON

Gilles Muller v Marin Cilic - 1.55 Cilic

• 28th v 8th in the rankings.
• In 2016's head to head, Cilic won in 2 tie breakers.
• Muller is in excellent pre-Wimbledon grass court form, winning in 's-Hertogenbosch and beating the likes of Tsonga and Querrey at Queens - solid enough yardsticks on grass.
• Quarter, Quarter, Semi-final, Quarters for Cilic in his recent tournaments. He is very consistent.
• Cilic is solid on grass. Semis then quarter finals at Wimbledon last year.
• Recent collateral form - Cilic was beaten by karlovic. Karlovic was beaten by Muller in the Final last tournament.
• Cilic could win in 2 tie breakers. There is always a risk of that. This match looks ideally placed for laying the first set winner.

Grigor Dimitrov v Feliciano Lopez - 1.88 Dimitrov

• As we do more tennis we get to know players. Clearly Jennifer Lopez is superb on grass.
• 12th v 40th. I would not take the rankings to heart here on this surface.
• These 2 met on Grass in 2014 and it was a 3 setter with 3 tie breakers. In 2016, Dimotrov won on hard, in 3 sets.
• Lopez was a Finalist at Stuttgart and in this tournament the players has has beaten impress - Stan Wawrinka, Chardy and Berdych.
• Dimitrov looks to have had an easier run v 3 lower ranked players.
• I am with Lopez and hope that Dimitrov wins the first set as we get better Lopez odds. I hoped for that in his last match but he won the first set.
• There is yet another argument for laying the first set winner given Dimi's head to heads and the frequency of tie breakers.

GERRY WEBER

Roger Federer v Karen Khachanov - 1.09 Roger

• 4th v 56th.
• No head to heads.
• 2 3 setters and a retirement for Karen suggests he is opposable with a first set win.
• Roger is in fine fettle. A lay of him at these odds yesterday did not come off.
• Karen has been losing in straight sets to top 10 and even just outside top 10.
• I do advocate laying 1.09 shots just as habit but foresee a 2-0 Fed win.

Alex Zverev v Richard Gasquet - 1.42 Alex

• 21st v 23rd. A feeling Alex is moving up the rankings.
• A recent Alex win 2017 in 2 sets, the first a tie breaker may see that pattern repeat here.
• An almighty battle with Agut saw 2 tie breakers, won by each player.
• 46th and 41st beaten by Gasquet this tournament. His win over Monfils I would discount as Monfils retired the match before - possible niggle?
• In head to heads I would look to lay Gasquet if Gasquet wins the first set.

WTA BIRMINGHAM

Lucia Safarova v Petra Kvitova - 1.33 Kvitova

• 28th v 15th.
• 9-0 Kvitova in head to heads.
• The very fact Lucie has had 2 3 setters this tournament suggests laying Lucia if she wins the first set (quite apart from the compelling head to heads indicating opposing her!).
• Final, Quarters, Final, Final for Petra prior to a French Open flop suggests, as I said yesterday, she is used to these matches.
• Mladenovic has been a decent yardstick but was beaten in 2 sets.
• I will with Petra and would like to back her at 1.6 or higher today.

Garbine Muguruza v Ashleigh Barty - 1.66 Garbine

• 6th v 85th.
• No head to heads.
• Both players were advantaged last round by retirements so form is garbled.
• Finalist 2014 Garbine but poor last year on grass.
• Quarter finalist Notts and failed to get past qualifiers Wimbledon for Barty last year.
• I note Garbine has had some battles where she looked like losing so will side with her not to lose 2-0 today.

Mallorca Open

Julia Goerges v Catherine Bellis - 1.89 Bellis

• 45th v 58th.
• No head to heads.
• All straight sets wins for Julia.
• Bellis has dropped just the one set.
• Not much to get our teeth into. A slight nod towards Julia who, if she can maintain what must be a good service game, should not lose 2-0.
• Do remember folks that you do not have to play in every match!

Caroline Garcia v Anastasija Sevastova - 1.76 Garcia

• 24th v 26th so rankings suggest a 3 setter.
• In the Final here last year, these 2 met and Garcia won in straight sets priced 1.4.
• Sevastova has had 3 3 setters to reach here so in an ideal world we want Ana to win the first set as the probability of a 3 setter increases in her case.