Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A good haul laying the Champions League sides. Dortmund were 0-3 down, Dinamo Zagreb scored first and drew, Galatasary lost 0-1. Well done Gary at the DRT Facebook page on his lays yesterday, particularly switching tack and laying Paderborn at 0-3 up.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3832894638942649869 is the link to today's live chat webinar. 14:30 start. The software is now working.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - West Ham v Tottenham - 1.99 Tottenham

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 10/20 West Ham home matches and +2.5 goals in 11/15 Spurs away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/20 West Ham home matches.
  • Champions league for Tottenham next week and I think that they could be vulnerable in a London derby.

West Ham (16th)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only once at home.
  • Only one win home and away v the top 15.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Tottenham (14th)

  • 3 1-1 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No away wins.
  • Only one clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • And so my campaign to take on vulnerable sides continues. I will lay Spurs if their odds get short enough. A side made for inconvenience post-International and pre-Champions league.
  • And form backs me up. Scoring and conceding away without winning. West Ham have failed to score only once.
  • New manager alert for Spurs!

15:00 - Everton v Norwich - 1.43 Everton

  • 1st goal: Everton have scored first in 7/10 home matches while Norwich have conceded first in 5/6 away matches. Norwich have lost by two or more goals in 5/6 away matches.

Everton (15th)

  • WOW! Norwich must be bad if this Everton side are so short!!
  • Some signs of progress. 1 loss in 4 was a 3-2, 2 wins and a draw in the other 3 matches.
  • 2-2-1-2 goals scored last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2/2 home wins v 16th and lower.

Norwich (20th)

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 5 of the last 7 matches.

Conclusions

  • Now I know why Everton's odds are so short. Norwich have only scored 1 away goal all season and meet an Everton side scoring 2-2-1-2 goals recently. That brilliant forward line starting to produce? 2/2 wins too for Everton v 16th and lower.

Crystal Palace v Liverpool - 1.47 Liverpool

  • 1st goal: C Palace have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Liverpool have scored first in 17/20 away matches against middle-third teams. Liverpool have won 9/12 away matches against middle-third teams.

Crystal Palace (12th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home losses.
  • 4/5 losses have come v the top 5.
  • 2 0-2 losses at home v top 4.

Liverpool (1st)

  • All wins bar a draw v Man Utd.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3 of the last 4 matches saw Liverpool concede first.
  • 5/6 matches away have seen 1 goal in it matches.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool look trustworthy, even pre-Champions League and post- International but look layable at such short odds given their recent habit for conceding first and also their tight matches away. That's not to say that you can't revert to backing Liverpool to pull the rabbit out of the hat if needs be.

Watford v Burnley - 2.36 Watford

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Watford home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/10 Burnley away matches. Burnley have conceded first in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • An interesting market under-estimating Burnley in my mind.
  • 3 draws, a loss v Chelsea and a win v Norwich for Watford is a sign of improvement.
  • But for me, Burnley have lost exclusively to the top 6 this season.
  • I see value in Burnley today despite the market suggesting Watford have a chance.

Brighton v Leicester - 2.16 Leicester

  • 1st half outcome: Leicester have lost the first half in 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams and they have conceded first in 8/11 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/17 Brighton home matches.
  • No European club competition for Leicester and another match I personally will look at Leicester not losing. I can give a reason why their odds are relatively high. It could be to do with Brighton's 3 consecutive home wins scoring 3-3-2 goals.
  • This, though, is a Leicester losing only to Man Utd and Liverpool away.
  • Leicester only failed to score in their opener.
  • 100% wins for Leicester v 9th and lower and they play 11th today.
  • Brighton have yet to play the top 9 at home so there is a gap in form there but I am with Leicester today not to lose.

Arsenal v Southampton - 1.54 Arsenal

  • Match outcome: Arsenal have won 15/16 home matches against bottom-six teams while Southampton have lost 11/15 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/10 Southampton away matches against top-six teams.

Arsenal (6th)

  • I am beginning to think that it is actually Dick Emery in charge of Arsenal and not Unai.
  • Only 4 wins, 3 did come at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-2, 2-2, 3-2 at home v 12th and lower.

Southampton (19th)

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches, a real pattern under this new manager.
  • Did beat 5th away but that is not your traditional top 5 team (sorry Sean Bean!).
  • Scored 2 goals only once away.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Europa League may see Arsenal distracted. They are scoring and conceding 2 goals v 12th and lower. If you think that will continue, lay Arsenal particularly after a 2-0 lead but then that relies on a Southampton in poor form and scoring 2 goals only once away. Saints do score and concede though!

Bournemouth v Wolves - 2.72 Wolves

  • 1st half outcome: Bournemouth have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against top-half teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Wolves away matches against middle-third teams. Wolves have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • A market which cannot split these 2.

Bournemouth (9th)

  • Only 4 losses. The last 3 losses came away.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 4th.

Wolves (8th)

  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches.
  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only the first match of the season.
  • Unbeaten away v the top 13 but 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No wonder it's 2.72 the favourite. Only 1 loss for Bournemouth v the top 4. Wolves are unbeaten away v the top 13. In-play stats for me. Might lay Bournemouth if they score first.

17:30 - Man City v Chelsea - 1.45 Man City

  • 1st half outcome: Man City have won the first half in 9/10 home matches against top-six teams while Chelsea have conceded first in 9/10 away matches against top-six teams. Man City have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams.
  • 2 Champions League sides play each other. Twice now have Man City lost when a league match has been played post International / Pre-Champions League.
  • 2 top 4 sides meet.
  • 2 of City's 3 losses as I say came in this unique weekend.
  • They are yet to meet the top 7 at home.
  • 6 consecutive wins for Chelsea.
  • 5 consecutive away wins. Losses this season came v Man Utd and Liverpool.
  • Chelsea have scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Chelsea are yet to meet the top 6 away.
  • They are yet to beat the top 5 at home, a loss and 2 score draws.
  • All wins for both sides this season have come v 8th and lower. A watching brief for me but a continuation of my strategy for targeting teams most affected by International duty and Champions League duty. City are far too short at 1.45, even better layable if they score first.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Leganes v Barcelona - 1.49 Barcelona

  • Asian handicap: Leganes have lost by two or more goals in 4/6 home matches against Big Two teams while Barcelona have scored first in 13/20 away matches against bottom-six teams. Barcelona have won 10/19 away matches.
  • Pre-Champions League Barcelona will be another side to potentially lay particularly if leading.
  • Only 1 win for Leganes came v newly promoted Mallorca.
  • Leganes have failed to score 2 goals in a home match. They failed to score v the top 3.
  • Barcelona are yet to meet the bottom 5 away (Leganes are bottom). 3 losses and a draw came away.
  • In a weekend where we should be layers rather than backers of these teams affected by International and Champions League football, the problem is that Leganes are pants!

15:00 - Betis v Valencia - 2.6 Betis

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 9/17 Real Betis home matches against middle-third teams and +2.5 goals in 6/10 Valencia away matches. Valencia have scored first in 11/18 away matches.
  • Champions League for Valencia upcoming.
  • Only 3 wins for Betis came at home and saw both teams score.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Betis.
  • Betis have scored and conceded last 7 home matches.
  • Betis are yet to beat a top 11 side home or away.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 3 losses for Valencia.Losses came away.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Valencia failed to score in only one match.
  • Valencia have not played 11th-17th away and play 17th today.
  • Angles? Pre-Champions League Valencia is another side to target as a layer. Maybe not at the odds pre-match, but if they lead and lead late.
  • Valencia have failed to score in only 1 match.

17:30 - Granada v Atletico Madrid - 1.95 Atl Madrid

  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 4/6 Granada CF home matches and -2.5 goals in 8/9 Atl. Madrid away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Atl. Madrid have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches.

Granada (9th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 1-1-1-1 goals scored at home recently, 3 of those matches were 1-0.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • All 5 losses came v the top 7.
  • Did beat Barcelona at home.

Atl Madrid (3rd)

  • 5 draws and 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • In 4 away matches v top 14, no win and 3 draws.
  • Not played 6th-12th away.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Atl Madrid are another side to target post International/pre Champions League.
  • They are not the best away and only 2 over 2.5 goals matches all season precludes a low scoring affair. If Atl Madrid lead, I will lay them if their odds are short enough.

20:00 - Real Madrid v Sociedad - 1.42 Real Madrid

  • Match outcome: Real Madrid have won 9/12 home matches while Real Sociedad have lost 9/10 away matches against Big Two teams. Real Sociedad have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against Big Two teams.
  • Pre-Champions League Real Madrid are another side for me to lay, particularly if leading.
  • Only 1 loss for Real Madrid came v Mallorca.
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 at home for Real Madrid.
  • Real have not played the top 8 at home.
  • All 5 goals conceded at home by Real came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches for Sociedad.
  • 3 wins in 4 away for Sociedad.
  • Sociedad have failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Sociedad have not played the top 2 yet.
  • Angles? It is pre-Champions League and post International. And Real Madrid will be affected by these 2 competitions. They have not played the top 8 at home yet so there is an element of the unknown. I would lay Real Madrid at as short odds as I can get. 1.42 short enough for some of you on this unique weekend? Sociedad remember have failed to score only once this season.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Atalanta v Juventus - 2.4 Juventus

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 8/13 Atalanta home matches and +2.5 goals in 15/20 Atalanta home matches. Juventus have scored first in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Atalanta (5th)

  • Pre-Champions League for Atalanta and for Juventus.
  • Only 2 losses.
  • No win in 3 matches.
  • Ended their 2+ goal average in matches, in their last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in 2 consecutive matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 2 yet but are yet to beat a top 4 side.

Juventus (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • All wins bar 2 draws.
  • Failed to score only one.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal away.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • Not played 3rd-7th away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in the Champions League. I see Juventus away matches tend to be tight, one-goal-in-it affairs. Note Atalanta have failed to score in 2 matches now. They had tended to score 2+ goals but have spluttered. I am with Juventus today. Do watch for Juventus team news. I want to see Ronaldo and Dybala playing.

17:00 - AC Milan v Napoli - 2.34 Napoli

  • 1st goal: AC Milan have conceded first in 6/10 home matches against top-half teams while Napoli have won 10/20 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Napoli away matches.

AC Milan (14th)

  • Only 4 wins. 3 wins were 1-0.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • All defeats have come v the top 12.
  • 2 goals conceded at home v top 16 in the 4 matches played.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Napoli (7th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • No win in 4 matches saw 3 draws.
  • No win in 3 away saw 2 draws.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Pre-European club competition for these 2 sides. Napoli are struggling of late and will be a side affected by International fatigue and pre-Champions League. Atalanta themselves have failed to score. AC Milan are in poor form and Napoli, on form, should not lose today. But remember that this is a unique weekend, Napoli are unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.

19:45 - Torino v Inter - 1.9 Inter

  • Match outcome: Torino FC have won 11/17 home matches while Inter Milan have conceded first in 5/9 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Inter Milan away matches against middle-third teams.

Torino (11th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Won their last match v newly promoted Brescia.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2 home losses came v 1st and 16th. Not beaten the top 4 home or away.
  • 0-1-0 goals scored at home v the top 7.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Inter Milan (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss came v Juventus.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 wins.
  • Both teams scored in 7 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 6 consecutive away wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of those away wins.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Champions League for Inter Milan and Conte has rested some big names but has left them on the bench in case of domestic struggles pre-Champions League.
  • This Inter Milan look very reliable especially pre-Champions League (they have struggled but remain unbeaten!). Torino look poor and have scored 0-1-0 goals at home v the top 7.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bayern Munich - 1.21 Bayern

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/7 F Dusseldorf home matches against top-six teams and in 9/11 Bayern away matches against bottom-six teams. Bayern have won 18/20 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Dusseldorf (13th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded but not beaten a top 12 side.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Bayern Munich (3rd)

  • No win in 2 away.
  • Scored in every match.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 1 match.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Bayern another side to target post International and pre-Champions League? Particularly if they score first. It will be a low liability lay.
  • Both teams could score today and Bayern are conceding 2+ goals in recent matches.

Union Berlin v Mgladbach - 2.14 Mgladbach

  • 1st half outcome: Union Berlin have drawn the first half in 4/6 home matches as have B. M'gladbach in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams. B. M'gladbach have won 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

Union Berlin (11th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 clean sheets only came last 2 home matches of the season.
  • Losses v top 3.

Mgladbach (1st)

  • 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss away.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • Europa League for Mgladbach but as 1st in the league, the curse has yet to get them. I have to be with Mgladbach today. Union Berlin, newly promoted, are having a great season but have 2/2 losses v the current top 3.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg - 2.12 Frankfurt

  • 1st goal: E. Frankfurt have scored first in 8/13 home matches while Wolfsburg have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. Wolfsburg have lost by two or more goals in 8/14 away matches against top-half teams.

Frankfurt (9th)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • 2 recent losses came away from home.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Failed to score only in last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 6th and lower.

Wolfsburg (10th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • The only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Europa League upcoming for Frankfurt and for the Wolf.
  • Slightly favour Frankfurt here. Solid recent home form, 2+ goals scored and playing a Wolfsburg side who have failed to score in 3 matches now.

Werder Bremen v Schalke 04 - 2.58 Werder

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 W. Bremen home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Schalke 04 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 8/13 W. Bremen home matches.

Werder Bremen (14th)

  • Both teams scored in all bar 1 match this season.
  • 5 score draws and a loss last 6 matches.
  • Conceded every match.
  • Both teams scored in 4/5 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played 5th - 11th at home.

Schalke (7th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2-3 win and 3-3 last 2 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • Not played 6th-14th away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams are highly likely to score. Werder look layable if leading 2-0. BUT gaps in form both sides is the worry.
  • Werder have yet to have a 0-0 at halftime but Schalke have had 40% 0-0's at halftime away.

Leverkusen v Freiburg - 1.54 Leverkusen

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Leverkusen home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 6/10 Leverkusen such matches. SC Freiburg have conceded first in 18/20 away matches against top-half teams.

Leverkusen (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 at home.
  • Champions League up coming.
  • No win v the top 9.

Freiburg (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Conceded in their last 3 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away loss v 11th.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen look poor for a 1.54 shot and add in the Champions League mix, they are laying, whether at the off or if scoring first. Freiburg remember have failed to score only once.

17:30 - RB Leipzig v FC Koln - 1.37 RB Leipzig

  • 1st half outcome: RB Leipzig have won the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while FC Koln have conceded first in 5/6 away matches. RB Leipzig have scored first in 9/12 home matches against bottom-six teams.

RB Leipzig (2nd)

  • Have been shakier than Shakin Stevens on a bouncy castle pre-European Club competition and as strong favourites but did dispatch of Mainz, at home, when strong favourites the last time they played pre-European Club competition.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 12 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
  • Only loss at home was another pre-European match, v Schalke.
  • Have been favs in 3 of 4 recent matches without winning.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-4-3-8 goals scored v 11th and lower home and away.

FC Koln (17th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • Newly promoted.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • Failed to score v the top 3 this season.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Champions League for Leipzig upcoming so layable by default despite the weak opponents and an impressive average of  4+ goals a game v 11th and lower (they play 17th).
  • On form, it could be a stroll for Leipzig.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Celtic v Livingston - 1.14 Celtic

  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 10/11 home matches against middle-third teams and they have won by two or more goals in 15/20 home matches. Livingston have conceded first in 9/16 away matches.

Celtic (1st)

  • Only 1 loss came away.
  • Failed to score in only that loss.
  • All wins at home.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 4/6 home matches.
  • 16 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 2-0 loss to Livingston earlier this season.

Livingston (7th)

  • That win v Celtic was the only win in 9 matches.
  • In 6 recent matches away, Livingston conceded 2 goals at least.
  • 4 losses and a 2-2 last 5 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Revenge for Celtic? Their sole loss came v Livingston.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, note that Livvy have conceded 11/14 goals 2nd half away from home.
  • Europa League for Celtic upcoming suggests they are immediately layable at 1.14 just in case...

15:00 - Hibernian v Motherwell - 2.36 Hibernian

  • 1st goal: Hibernian have scored first in 8/11 home matches while Motherwell have lost the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 9/13 Motherwell away matches against middle-third teams.

Hibs (8th)

  • 5 consecutive score draws ended with a win.
  • Both teams have scored in all bar 1 home match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came first match of the season.
  • 2 consecutive Desmond 2-2's at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side.

Motherwell (4th)

  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • Only 2 away losses came v the top 2.
  • 3-0 win v Hibs already this season.

Conclusions

  • Motherwell are in good form away from home, only losing to the big 2. Trust them? Hibs are score drawing. Lay them if they score first? Hibs have kept only one clean sheet.

15:00 - St Mirren v Ross Co - 2.24 St Mirren

  • 1st half outcome: St Mirren have drawn the first half in 8/11 home matches as have Ross County in 4/7 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 5/7 Ross County away matches.

St Mirren (12th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 3 at home.
  • Scored only 3 goals at home.
  • Lost 2-1 to Ross County earlier this season.
  • Not played 4th-8th at home.

Ross Co (6th)

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 6-2-2 goals conceded away last 3 away matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in poor form. Watching brief for me.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v Hearts - 2.48 Kilmarnock

  • Match outcome: Kilmarnock have won 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hearts have lost 7/11 away matches. Kilmarnock have won by two or more goals in 5/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Kilmarnock (5th)

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 6 at home.
  • Only loss v Rangers at home.
  • 2 goals at least conceded last 3 matches.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 0-1 win over Hearts earlier in the season.

Hearts (9th)

  • Only 2 wins, one did come last match.
  • Failed to score last 3 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • All 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 2 of 3 losses away came v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Slightly favour Kilmarnock here given that they are unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring pattern for Hearts so note that if 0-0 at halftime.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - FC Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar - 2.32 AZ Alkmaar

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/8 Utrecht home matches against top-six teams and in 16/18 AZ Alkmaar away matches against top-six teams. AZ Alkmaar have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

FC Utrecht (4th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only last match.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Not played top 2 at home but beat 3rd 3-0.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AZ Alkmaar (2nd)

  • 7 wins, a draw and a loss last 9 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in the last 8 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Lost to 5th and drew with 6th.

Conclusions

  • These 2 have a reputation as goal scorers but the question is whether this will be quashed by the fact that these 2 are top 4 sides. They have a reputation for scoring 2 goals of late, usually NOT v top 4 teams though.
  • On that basis, it is tough to call. I like both sides too and cannot easily split them.

18:45 - Ajax v Heracles - 1.15 Ajax

  • HT/FT: Ajax have had W/W double results in 12/14 home matches while H Almelo have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to Big Two teams. Ajax have won 8/8 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

Ajax (1st)

  • Unbeaten this season and the Curse of the Champions League only strikes insofar as they don't score first half! They did have a scare v Waalwijk 1-0 up to 1-1 then a 1-2 win for Ajax. So I would encourage you to lay at 1.16 in this most unique of weekends.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 7 consecutive wins, 6 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 matches and last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 goal conceded at home.

Heracles (7th)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • No win in 3 matches  away with 2 losses and a draw away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Noticeably lost 2-0 twice when playing the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League means laying this weekend. 1.16 allows a speculative lay with minimal liability. But having conceded only one goal at home, it is unlikely we will see a shock.
  • I would note too that pre-Champions League, Ajax have tended not to score first half so if you were expecting a goal before halftime, perhaps delay (that said, we will now see the first goal 30 seconds in).
  • Logical expectation, away from the Curse of the Champions League, is for a possible win to nil for Ajax, which opens things up to a correct score dutch.

18:45 - PEC Zwolle v Fortuna Sittard - 1.81 PEC Zwolle

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Zwolle home matches against bottom-six teams and in 6/6 Sittard away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 9/10 Zwolle home matches.

PEC Zwolle (16th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Fortuna SIttard (14th)

  • 3 wins came in the last 3 home matches.
  • 4 consecutive away losses.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Beat 15th and 17th at home and play 16th away.
  • 18 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins for both sides. Not for me!

19:45 - ADO Den Haag v Willem II - 2.36 Willem II

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 Den Haag home matches against top-six teams and in 7/9 Willem II away matches against bottom-six teams. Willem II have won the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

ADO Den Haag (15th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • All 3 clean sheets came in the wins.
  • Only home win v 17th at home.

Willem II (6th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All wins home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • On Challenge Table form, Willem II are the side to be with. All wins home and away came v 11th and lower. ADO have kept only 3 clean sheets.