Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I think there may be a few distractions for us all, to warrant a live chat? That said, if I am online, I will not do the traditional live chat via this website, but go via Twitter @drtclub. Given our Italian friends have shifted their football to a Saturday, 14:00 would be the start. Please note the 'if'. It is family time for me and if any ankle biters come round, I would like to spend time with them.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Everton v Chelsea - 1.69 Chelsea

  • 4 consecutive Chelsea wins in head to heads but remember Everton have a new manager who has made an immediate impact.
  • 0-1-0-1 conceded by Everton under Big Sam in an unbeaten run. 2-0 and 3-1 home wins v Huddersfield and Swansea City.
  • There has been no 0-0 at halftime last 3 Everton matches.
  • This is the first big test for Everton at home under Big Sam.
  • Chelsea's last 2 away losses were in London derbies.
  • 8 wins in their last 10 matches for Chelsea.
  • No 0-0 away for Chelsea.
  • Chelsea have scored and conceded in all away matches v the top 14.
  • There is an element of unreadability here given Everton are on such a good run but are yet to really be tested by a top club under new management at home.
  • I do think both teams could score today. Do remember that Everton's draw with Liverpool was care of a penalty so they may be more vulnerable.

15:00 - Brighton v Watford - 2.68 Brighton

Brighton (13th)

  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home wins have come v 18th and lower.
  • Only 2 home losses v top 4.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Watford (10th)

  • 4 defeats and a draw in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • All defeats bar a win v 12th away v top 14 teams.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 of 7 matches v 9th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • An argument for Watford here based on their scoring of 2+ goals away generally v teams 9th and lower.
  • Should that pattern continue I cannot see Brighton matching that.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime Brighton, despite only 2 defeats v top 4 at home, do tend to only score 1 and collect score draws v mid table teams.
  • I would lay Brighton if they scored first only in the hope Watford score the quota.

15:00 - Man City v Bournemouth - 1.13 Man City

  • All defeats v top 7 for Bournemouth home and away failing to score in 5 of those matches and the 3 away.
  • 1-0 away v Man Utd and Tottenham suggests a Bournemouth buffer.
  • City have scored 3+ goals in 6/9 at home and have a 100% win record v teams 10th and lower (Bournemouth are 16th).
  • 23 of 32 goals scored by City at home came 2nd half so fear not if Bournemouth keep a quiet first half.
  • Do keep the faith. City have had recent patterns of conceding end of the first half and then scoring soon 2nd half and then winning late. I could do with the late late show today to create a bit of value.

15:00 - Southampton v Huddersfield - 1.65 Southampton

Southampton (12th)

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches came at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 0-1-0-1-4-0 scored at home v top 10 teams.

Huddersfield (11th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches v Brighton and Watford.
  • 7 consecutive aways without scoring ended with a 1-4 win v Watford.
  • Wins v 10th and 14th away.
  • 15 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This looks like short odds for a Saints team which has scored 2+ goals in only 3 matches this season (at home v 9th, 15th and 18th).
  • Saints have conceded in all matches v top 18 at home so may need those 2 goals today.
  • Huddersfield only scored in 2 matches v 10th and 14th away and Saints are in that part of the league.
  • The value today may be in laying a Southampton lead if they continue to stumble to get that 2nd goal.
  • Huddersfield away from home though......! Yikes.

15:00 - West Ham v Newcastle - 2.18 West Ham

  • 7 matches under Moyes for West Ham.3 defeats came away.1-1, 1-0, 0-0 at home under Moyes.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets for West Ham.
  • 8 defeats and a 2-2 now for Newcastle.
  • All Newcastle wins have come v 14th and lower (West Ham are 15th but there largely through previous management).
  • All bar 2 goals conceded away by Newcastle came 31st minute onwards.
  • Limited research given the new manager syndrome. An air of solidity for West Ham at home may swing things their way. Defence is their best form of attack so do not be surprised with a 0-0 for a while.
  • Newcastle need to stop the rot and do tend to win v 14th and lower but how 'true' West Ham's position in 15th is now under new management is the question.
  • I would favour West Ham today on form not to lose.

17:30 - Burnley v Tottenham - 1.58 Tottenham

  • 2-1, 0-2 and 1-1 Tottenham in the last 3 head to heads.

Burnley (6th)

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home all wins to nil and all under 2.5 goals.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only met one of the top 9 at home, a 0-1 loss to Arsenal.

Tottenham (7th)

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6.
  • 4 defeats and a draw away in their last 5.
  • All away defeats have come v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Tottenham lose away v the top 8. Just how 'truly' Burnley can be described as a top 6 team is questionable given they have only met one of the top 9 at home.
  • Their form therefore needs that context. All those recent wins need that context.
  • Tottenham will know this is a defensively driven Burnley who rarely d 3+ goal games.
  • Tottenham are in poor form themselves and are hardly rocking good odds on favs.
  • A headscratcher this. Burnley rarely score a 2nd goal so there is an angle there (lay them if they score first) - They do 1-0's yes but as I say only 1 match v top 9 at home.

19:45 - Leicester v Man Utd - 1.93 Man Utd

  • 4 consecutive Man Utd wins in recent head to heads.

Leicester (8th)

  • Claude Puel is 9 matches into his tenure so we will focus only on these.
  • Only 2 losses in those matches v Man City and Palace.
  • 2-2-0-1-2-1-3-4-0 scored in those matches.
  • 0-2-1-0 scored at home in 2 defeats and 2 wins.
  • Under Puel, Leicester have not had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Season wide, Leicester have lost all bar 1 v top 5 home and away, conceding 2 goals at least in each match.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • 7 wins in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Struggles have really only come v top 4.

Conclusions

  • Leicester do remain vulnerable at home under Puel who has a 50% losing record.
  • The head to heads are unanimous. Man Utd tend to simply score more than Leicester.
  • Man Utd have tended to shut up shot in top 4 clashes but show goals outside of that group.
  • Season long, leicester simply lose to top 5. Will that continue under Puel? It is to be expected.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Real Madrid v Barcelona - 2.26 Real Madrid

  • The last head to head was a Super Cup 2-0 Real Madrid win but I am interested in the following! Both teams have scored in 23 of the last 25 head to heads.
  • Barcelona have scored in every match this season.
  • 5 consecutive home wins for Real Madrid. Barca though are unbeaten this season.
  • 1-1 draws away v 2nd and 3rd for Barca. Are we heading the same way today?
  • Ordinarily in head to heads we see both teams to score and over 2.5 goals bar that 2-0 last match.
  • Very tough to call but if 2-0 lead for any side, lay them. Very rarely we get a 0-0 at halftime I do recall a recent one and the 0-0 was about 6 for the 2nd half so perhaps back over 2.5 goals if 0-0 at halftime.

15:15 - Valencia v Villarreal - 2.08 Valencia

  • 3 Villareal wins in the last 4 head to heads.

Valencia (3rd)

  • 2 losses this season came in the last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 2 matches this season.
  • No defeat in 8 at home. Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 5 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in wins v teams 5th and lower.
  • Tend to score first and lead at halftime at home.

Villareal (6th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win away v top 11.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I think the market is not 100% behind Valencia because of head to heads.
  • On form though, Valencia should be scoring 2 goals and winning. Villareal themselves have only 1 away win v top 11.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Valencia tend to score first and lead at halftime at home.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Lazio v Crotone - 1.25 Lazio

  • 1-0 Lazio and 3-1 Crotone last 2 head to heads.

Lazio (5th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 7 wins and a 0-0 v 12th and lower home and away.
  • 9 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Crotone (16th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 6 away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • All defeats v the top 8 they have met.
  • Opponents have scored first all aways and tend to lead in away matches at halftime.

Conclusions

  • It all looks a little straightforward. Crotone have a 100% loss record v top 8 and that is set to continue.
  • Lazio may yet concede as they tend to do but in Crotone matches, the opponent tend to score first and lead at halftime.
  • I would certainly oppose any Crotone lead.

14:00 - Genoa v Benevento - 1.45 Genoa

Genoa (17th)

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 8 and you are 1.45 favourites!
  • Only 1 loss in 5 though.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • Yet to play the bottom 7 at home but have 3 wins away v bottom 7.

Benevento (20th)

  • All defeats bar that famous 2-2 v Inter Milan.
  • No clean sheets.
  • All away losses.
  • Only scored 2 goals in a game once all season.

Conclusions

  • Oh Lordy! A team without a home win is 1.45 odds! Down simply to Benevento losing all bar 1 all season and being unable to score that 2nd goal when they score.
  • Genoa have yet to meet the bottom 7 but have beaten bottom 7 away so that augurs well for today. I would pin my hopes on that collateral form. If they are winning away then surely they can replicate that with home advantage?

14:00 - Udinese v Verona - 1.73 Udinese

  • 0-1 Udinese, 1-1 and 2-0 Udinese in the last 3 head to heads.

Udinese (11th)

  • No draw sees 5 wins and 2 0-1 losses in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice in those last 2 home 0-1 defeats.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Wins at home v 17th and 20th.

Verona (19th)

  • Only 1 loss in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 14.

Conclusions

  • Almost by default, Udinese should be favoured here. Verona have had trouble conceding 2+ goals v 14th away and obviously if that continues they will not win.
  • Udinese should score here as they have only failed to score twice.

14:00 - Napoli v Sampdoria - 1.29 Napoli

  • Napoli have scored 2+ goals in each of the last 5 head to heads.

Napoli (1st)

  • Only 1 loss came at home v Juventus.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 at home.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches at home v 7th and lower.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • 3 losses and a draw in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 away matches.
  • 3-2 win and 3-2 loss in the 2 matches v top 3.
  • Conceded in all aways v 14th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Sampdoria are conceding  readily away from home and although Napoli failed to score in their last 2 at home, they have won 5/6 matches v 7th and lower.
  • Napoli like meeting Sampdoria in head to heads and the match is set up for Sampdoria to concede 2 goals at least.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Inter - 1.79 Inter

  • 4 Sassuolo and a 0-1 Inter win in the last 5 head to heads.

Sassuolo (15th)

  • Only 2 draws were 0-0.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home win came last match.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 9 defeats and a 0-1 win home and away v top 12 sides.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal v teams above them in the league.
  • Not scored a first half goal at home.

Inter Milan (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss came last match. A 0-0 and 1-3 loss last 2 matches and a draw in the Italian Cup sees Inter off the boil recently.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Remain unbeaten away from home.
  • All wins v 13th and lower.
  • Scored 6 goals away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • V 13th and lower, Inter Milan tend to score 2 goals + in wins away from home. They have gone off the boil a little recently but play a Sassuolo side with just the one home win albeit that coming last match.
  • Really Inter Milan should score 2 goals and win. Sassuolo rarely score 2 goals in a game so even if scoring should not win.

19:45 - Juventus v Roma - 1.85 Juventus

  • The home side generally wins this high profile encounter. 2 1-0 Juve wins last 2 head to heads at Juventus.
  • Juventus have one home loss v another Roman side, Lazio.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets for Juve who have failed to score only once.
  • Noticeable problems for Juve v top 5, a 0-0 v 3rd and 1-2 loss v 5th at home.Indeed only 1 win in 5 matches v top 7.
  • Only 2 losses for Roma came v Inter Milan and Napoli.
  • Roma are unbeaten away but are yet to play the top 6.
  • Roma lost at home to the top 3 and play 2nd today.
  • These high profile events can sometimes peeter out. From the clues we have gathered, here is what I note 1) the home side tends to win in head to heads 2) only 1 win in 5 matches v top 7 for Juve. 3) Roma lost AT HOME to top 3 - surely more vulnerable away? Slight advantage to me for Juve here. I am taken by Roma's struggles at home v top 3 and now they are away.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Kilmarnock v Rangers - 1.78 Rangers

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Kilmarnock (8th)

  • Only 3 losses in 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No draw at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v the top 6.

Rangers (3rd)

  • Only 5 defeats all season.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 5 wins in 6 aways.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines away.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • All away wins v top 9.

Conclusions

  • On form, Rangers could concede but not lose. In fact away from home they have a 100% win rate away v top 9 teams.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • What chance another 1-2 Rangers away win? It does sound a little obvious.

15:00 - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.4 Celtic

  • 8 consecutive Celtic wins in head to heads.

Celtic (1st)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only in that loss.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Only 2 home goals conceded first half.
  • Tend to score first and lead at halftime at home.
  • Not met the top 3 at home.

Aberdeen (2nd)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 away defeat came v Rangers.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • All defeats v top 3 this season.

Conclusions

  • The Celtic first loss of the season monkey is off their backs.
  • Strictly on form, Aberdeen simply lose to the top 3. It is as clear as day in the form.
  • Celtic noticeably have not met the top 3 at home so we have to assume, based on Aberdeen's form, that this will be a Celtic win.
  • Note Celtic tend to score first at home and lead at halftime so unlikely we will see a trade.