Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Jiangsu Suning lost to a VAR goal. A losing trade for me, laying Shanghai late. England U21 v Romania U21. Did you lay the late 0-0 given both teams had scored in these 2 team's last match? 2-4 it ended! On to today and the Euro U21 Championship matches continue and we enter must win territory for Belgium, Italy, and Spain U21. Nigeria stands out in the African Cup of Nations. I fancy AIK to get a result. Beijing and Guangzhou matches stand out in China. I won't research the tennis as it is semi-final time.

UEFA EURO U21 CHAMPIONSHIP

20:00 - Belgium U21 v Italy U21 - 1.46 Italy U21

  • 15th seed v the euro hosts.
  • It's the turn of Group A today.
  • Poland have 6 points, Italy and Spain have 3 points, and Belgium none.
  • Belgium must win by enough goal difference and hope Spain do not win, in order to capture 2nd spot. A win for Italy and a loss for Poland could see Italy grab top spot.
  • 0-1 Belgium last head to head.
  • 3-2 loss to Poland and 2-1 loss to Spain so far for the Belgians who could still conceivably get 2nd spot but will need a large dose of luck.
  • Belgium conceded both first and second halves in those matches.
  • After beating Spain 3-1, Italy lost 0-1 to Poland. Which Italy turns up today? The market thinks the Italy who played Spain will turn up today.
  • Italy have conceded before halftime in both of their matches to date.
  • I have no strong angles here. I did note last time I researched Italy that a factor in their odds is home advantage.
  • Both sides have been conceding before halftime. Is that enough to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score stats.
  • The in-play stats have been good in these U21 matches. I note Denmark U21 on Thursday v Austria U21 utterly dominate shots on/off and corners and they obliged with a goal before halftime and a 3-1 eventual win so in-play stats are a worthy tool for these youngsters.

20:00 - Spain U21 v Poland U21 - 1.37 Spain U21

  • 4th v 16th just to give you a guide as to expectations.
  • A draw will allow the Poles to top the group. It's must win territory for the Spanish.
  • Spain have only lost 3 times in this competition since September 2016. They lost 3-1 to Italy and then beat Belgium 2-1.
  • Spain scored first in both of those matches but then conceded the next goal.
  • 3-2 win v Belgium and 0-1 win v Italy is excellent stuff for the Poles who smashed the odds v Italy (similar odds to Spain's today). Both Poland matches saw a goal before halftime.
  • Please remember that a draw is all the Poles require and if their defence turns up as it did v hosts Italy, Spain U21 might be layable if leading.

CAF AFRICAN NATIONS CUP

15:30 - DR Congo v Uganda - 2.12 DR Congo

  • Group A also includes Egypt and Zimbabwe. This looks an easy group for Egypt who have a certain Mo Salah.
  • 49th v 80th in the rankings.
  • Last head to heads 2011.
  • In all competitions, 6 draws in 8 matches for Congo. They need to drink some Um Bongo in order to change those draws to wins.
  • An inability to score that 2nd goal will have Congo concerned about hanging on to a lead.
  • Ivory Coast, Togo and Ghana scored against Congo last African Cup of Nations. Those 3 sides have a reputation for top quality European Elite League players.
  • Only 1 win in 5 for Uganda who kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Uganda debuted in the ACN in 2017, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1
  • Not much to grasp onto in these opening matches. We have concern with the Congo that they are collecting far too many draws. And with Uganda there may be a struggle in front of goals.
  • It may point to laying the first team to score, with an insurance bet on 1-0/0-1 whoever scores first.

18:00 - Nigeria v Burundi - 1.4 Nigeria

  • 45th v 134th in the rankings. Nigeria are expected to go deep here at the ACN.
  • This Group B also includes Guinea and Madagascar who play at 21:00.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 for Nigeria in all competitions came v Senegal, a 1-0 in a friendly.
  • Nigeria were not in the ACN in 2017. They must have been spending that £35 million they received from a fellow countryman in an email, all for a small £50 activation fee via iTunes card.
  • Burundi have a touch of the Congo's with 6 draws in their last 8 matches in all competitions.
  • They scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches, winning only 1. Is this an angle we can use against the better ranked Nigeria?
  • This, I think, is Burundi's debut in the ACN.
  • We have to be with the Nigerians today on rankings, and experience.Burundi are a relative unknown but are entering that 'minnow' part of the rankings.

21:00 - Guinea v Madagascar - 1.61 Guinea

  • These are the other 2 teams in Group B.
  • 141st v 108th. These teams, like Burundi, are likely to be vying for 2nd spot in the group. That makes this opening match significant. If one team can take 3 points off a fellow contender, that's a step forward.
  • No head to heads since 2011.
  • No win in 5 for Guinea in all competitions.
  • Guinea were last in the ACN in 2015.
  • 4 losses and a draw for Madagascar recently.
  • I really have nothing to gauge these 2 by, bar the rankings and the odds. The rankings see Madagascar better ranked but the market sees Guinea as warm order. That clears that up then! I suspect that the in-play stats will play a role in trading these opening matches in this African Cup of Nations.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - AIK v Norrkoping - 2.02 AIK

AIK (3rd)

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches is more in keeping with reigning Champions' form.
  • A draw and 5 wins at home. 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.
  • Did not concede that 2nd goal at home.

Norrkoping (7th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss v 14th. have drawn the top 3 in the 3 matches played. Failed to score that 2nd goal v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • If Norrkoping continue to fail to score that 2nd goal v the top 4, then lay them if they score first, despite a recent solid 2 goal scoring record.
  • AIK do their points taking at home so I'd expect a win, with draw worst case scenario.
  • AIK have scored twice as many home goals 2nd half so fear not if they have not scored by halftime.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

17:00 - Stromsgodset v Molde - 2.22 Molde

Stroms (15th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Did win their last home match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not played the top 4 at home but home and away v the top 7, for the matches they have played, Stroms have not won.
  • 2-0-3-2-3-goals scored at home. 3-0-2-3-1- goals conceded at home!
  • 8 of 9 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Molde (1st)

  • All 3 defeats came away.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • Losses away, 3-2, 3-2, 2-1 came v 3rd, 5th, and 14th.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 5 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Slight gap in form for Stroms who are yet to play the top for but we can infer trouble based on an inability to beat the top 7 home or away this season.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Stroms could concede 2 goals and have conceded 8/9 at home in the first half. The niggle? 70% of Molde goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Both teams could score today with Stroms not winning.

CONMEBOL Copa America

20:00 - Peru v Brazil - 1.36 Brazil

  • Group A also includes Bolivia and Venezuela.
  • Last head to head was 2016 and saw a 0-1 Peru win and 0-2 Brazil win.
  • 21st v 3rd in the rankings.
  • So far this Copa America Peru drew 0-0 with Venezuela, and beat Bolivia 1-3.
  • Brazil beat Bolivia 3-0 and drew 0-0 with Venezuela. Note the clean sheets for Brazil.
  • That's 4 consecutive clean sheets for Brazil in all competitions. A new strength defensively.
  • I research because 20:00 kick-off is relatively early for South American internationals. I would lay any late 0-0. A 2nd consecutive 0-0 for Brazil would be a surprise.

20:00 - Bolivia v Venezuela - 1.56 Venezuela

  • The other 2 sides in Group A.
  • 7 consecutive defeats for Bolivia in the Copa America. 3-0 loss to Brazil and 1-3 loss to Peru for Bolivia this year.
  • 62nd v 33rd.Bolivia are the lowest ranked South American side.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's for Venezuela this Copa America, like Brazil, is a sequence I am keen to see end. I would lay any late 0-0. Venezuela should be favoured here based on Bolivia's consistently poor Copa America form.

FIFA WOMEN'S WORLD CUP

16:30 - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.15 Germany

  • The Round of 16 now. Top of Group B plays 3rd in Group A.
  • 2nd v 38th in the rankings.
  • Germany are yet to concede a goal this competition. This is an angle in. If Nigeria score first, they are highly unlikely to score that 2nd are they? So lay them and back Germany, or head to the correct score market and back Germany 2-1, 3-1.
  • Nigeria's 0-1 loss to France was down to a 75th minute red card, and resultant 79th minute France winner. Norway though did score 3 goals first half against Nigeria. Norway are ranked 12th.
  • 1.15 odds does suggest a goal before halftime. Back 1-0, 2-0, in the halftime score market if 0-0 after 20 minutes. Do you trust women's football? Do note that Nigeria kept France at bay until a late late red card changed the match.

20:00 - Norway (W) v Australia (W) - 2.2 Australia

  • 2nd in Group A plays 2nd in Group C.
  • Norway had a reasonable group run.3-0 v Nigeria, 1-2 win v Korea and 2-1 loss to France, care of a 72nd minute France penalty.
  • The Matildas lost to Italy, beat Brazil 3-2 and Jamaica 1-4. Both teams scored in all Australia group matches and in 2 of Norway's 3 Group matches.
  • 12th v 6th in the rankings.
  • This is too tight for me. Remember, Norway only lost to France care of a penalty.
  • Do we see both teams scoring today? All Australia group matches and all bar one of Norway's group matches saw a goal at least before halftime.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

10:30 - Beijing Guoan v Guangzhou R&F - 1.32 Beijing

Beijing (1st)

  • All wins bar a single loss v 2nd.
  • 3 2-1 wins in the last 4 matches.
  • Scored every match.
  • 6 consecutive home wins, scoring 2+ goals in each of those.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All 4 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Guangzhou (9th)

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 5 defeats in 6 away.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2+ goals conceded v top 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Expectation for Beijing to score 2 goals at least today so a ready angle.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • No clean sheets for Guangzhou. Take note of that.

12:35 - Henan v Shenzhen FC - 2.16 Henan

Henan (10th)

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win v 5th.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home.
  • Not played the bottom 4 at home but 2 wins and a draw away.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Shenzhen (14th)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only clean sheet came last match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams hardly setting the world on fire. Both teams have failed to score in recent matches. Logically we can make an argument for Henan. They are yet to play the bottom 4 at home but have 2 wins and a draw away from home. Without home advantage, surely they can match that with home advantage? If that is the case, lay Shenzhen if Shenzhen score first.

12:35 - Tianjin Teda v Shandong Luneng - 2.52 Tianjin

  • I will leave this match alone. 2.52 the favourite in a Chinese Super league which I am not a big fan of. In-play stats or leave alone.

12:35 - Guangzhou FC v Hebei CFFC - 1.53 Guangzhou

Guangzhou (2nd)

  • A draw and 4 consecutive wins last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 2+ goals scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only loss at home v 1st.
  • Clean sheets at home v 8th and lower.
  • All wins bar a single loss home and away v 6th and lower.

Hebei (13th)

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches. 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Conceded in their last 4 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded away in the last 4 matches.
  • 3/3 defeats v the top 4. 3/3 losses away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Expect Guangzhou to score. They could even keep a clean sheet so Hebei are layable if scoring first.
  • We should, on seasonal form, expect the home win.