Live chat begins 14:30 today in what is a busy day (as usual). It's the business end of the season, so make sure you know your Brighton's (nothing to play for) from your Wigans (everything to play for!). Highlights yesterday? The Hoff of course. 0-0 at halftime, 1-1 fulltime and both teams to score was the strongest pattern there!

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12:00 - Malaga v Valencia - 2.36 Malaga

• 2-2 the last time these 2 met this season.
• This is 15th v 12th in the Spanish Primera Division. Malaga are 11 points above the relegation zone. Safe enough, although not mathematically so.
• Like an X Factor star of yore, Valencia are now going nowhere fast safe in mid table mediocrity. No full research.

Malaga stats

• 2 wins in 3 includes against Barcelona. Those unexpected 3 points may have saved the season.
• Only 2 wins in 8 at home though.
• Only 4 clean sheets.
• No 0-0 at home.
• No draw at home w 18th and higher.
• 2-1 scorelines at home v 11th v 14th inclusive, where Valencia are.
• Of 10 scorelines at home v top 14 teams have been a derivative of 2-0/0-2 or 2-1/1-2.
• Opponents have scored first in 10/15 at home.

Valencia stats

• 3 wins and a 0-0 v Sevilla in their last 4 matches.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• Only 1 0-0 away.
• Only 1 win away v top 16.
• BUT unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0.
• Only 4 clean sheets Malaga and only 6 clean sheets Valencia. Both teams to score?
• I would back 2-1 / 1-2 here given its prevalence in Malaga home matches. It also covers a hope that both teams can score.
• Lay any late draw as Malaga avoid draws at home v top 18 teams ...so far.

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14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Wolfsburg - 2.5 Hertha

• 2-3 Hertha in the last head to head.
• This is 5th v 13th in the German Bundesliga There are some 5 teams in the relegation fight for avoidance of that 3rd relegation spot. Wolfsburg are one such team.
• Note the match odds indicate the market cannot split these teams.

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

• No home 0-0.
• All home wins v 9th and lower.

Hertha Berlin other stats

• 4 defeats in 5 matches.
• Only 1 defeat in 7 at home was v Hoff.
• Scored in their last 7 at home.
• 11 wins and a loss at home v 4th and lower.
• 7 clean sheets in 8 matches at home v 9th and lower.
• Scored first in 12/14 at home.

Wolfsburg other stats

• Only 2 defeat in 7 came last 3 matches.
• Only 1 0-0 away.
• Have kept 3 clean sheets away v 2nd, 3rd and 6th but lost heavily away to 1st and 4th.

Conclusions

• I would expect, on form, for Hertha Berlin's odds to be far shorter. After all they tend to win to nil at home v 9th and lower.
• Wolfsburg have shown v the top 6 that they can keep clean sheets. They lost heavily to Bayern and Dortmund.
• Wolfsburg need the win and could go for another clean sheet.
• Dare we back 0-0 pre match?
• On form, Hertha Berlin should win, scoring 2 goals. But it's that time of the season....

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14:30 - Hamburg v SV Darmstadt - 1.45 Hamburg

• Darmstadt are actually still alive in the Bundesliga after the most unlikely of wins against Schalke last weekend.
• 0-2 Hamburg when these 2 teams last met and with home advantage Hamburg are strong favourites.
• This is 14th v 18th in the German Bundesliga. 5 matches remain this season. Darmstadt must win all remaining matches with Mainz and Augbsurg losing all remaining 5 matches in order to stay up. They are not going to do it, even if Roy of the Rovers starts playing for them.
• Hamburg are on 33 points. Relegation 3rd spot is 32 points. Wolfsburg are also on 33 points. There are 4 teams in immediate danger of being relegated so this is a must win for Hamburg.
• I am not going to do full research here.

Hamburg stats

• Only 3 defeats in 11, 2 were against Bayern Munich and Dortmund. That is solid enough form.
• 7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 home matches is the primary reason they are so strongly fancied today.
• 3 of 4 losses at home have come v the top 4.
• Slight concerns v bottom 3 in 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines. No 2nd goal.

Darmstadt stats

• Lost every single away match - and a great stat to profit from when leading away at Ingolstadt!
• Led again v Schalke and that was another good trading match.
• Only 3 draws all season.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 away matches. Did score those 2 away at Ingolstadt.
• 26 of 34 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Some more Darmstadt fight please! They have led in each of their last 2 matches and then opponents have equalised. More of that today please! I would be opposing Darmstadt if they led and particularly led going into the 2nd half such is their dire concession rate 2nd half.
• It should be a Hamburg win all the way. The only niggle is the poor Hamburg scoring, albeit 1-0 win and 1-1, v bottom 3 at home this season. 1-1 would be the niggle scoreline for me.

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14:30 - Bayern Munich v Mainz - 1.17 Bayern

• The last time Bayern Munich were at these odds, they won with ease and scored the presumed 3/4 goals.
• This is 1st v 15th in the German Bundesliga. Mainz are in the relegation battle.

Bayern 100% stats

• No defeat at home.
• Not lost at halftime at home.
• No 0-0 at home.
• No 0-0 at halftime at home.
• All wins home and away v 14th and lower.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Bayern other stats

• Only 2 defeats.
• Failed to score only 3 times.
• Scored in last 14 at home.
• Scored first in 12/14 at home.
• Lead at halftime at home in 10/14 matches.

Mainz 100% stats

• All defeats away v top 6.
• All defeats v top 2, scoring and conceding in all 3 matches.

Mainz other stats

• 5 losses in 6 matches.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• No draw in 10 away.
• 8 defeats in 9 matches away v top 11.

Conclusions

• Post Champions League Bayern, if not affected, should win with ease.
• Both teams could score. Mainz have scored in 3 defeats v top 2 teams so let's hope Mainz score first.
• Remember 1.17 shots should score 3/4 goals at least today.
• Lay any late draw.

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14:30 - Ingolstadt v Werder Bremen - 2.3 Ingolstadt

• 2-1 Werder in the previous head to head.
• This is 17th v 8th in the German Bundesliga. This is a must-win for Ingolstadt in order to stay with the group of 5 teams in the relegation fight to avoid that 3rd bottom place.
• Top 6 possible with a win for Werder.

Ingolstadt 100% stats

• No 0-0.

Ingolstadt other stats

• 3 wins in their last 4 matches. Really going for it.
• The last 2 wins were 3-2.
• Only 3 clean sheets.
• Only 1 win home and away v top 9 teams.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• No away 0-0 at halftime.
• At least one team has scored 2 goals in all matches, home and away, v teams 13th and lower.
• Werder have scored 2 goals minimum away v teams 13th and lower.
• Both teams scored 2 goals in the away matches v bottom 3.

Werder Bremen other stats

• 7 wins and 2 draws last 9 matches saw Werder score 2 goals at least in all bar one of those matches.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Scored in their last 13 away.
• 76% over 2.5 goals.

Conclusions

• This will be a battle for survival for Ingolstadt. I think 2-2 as a trading vehicle has real evidence for it. Look at Werder away v bottom 3 sides. 2-2 has come up as a trading angle in both matches.
• Werder are likely to score 2 goals as well which means if Ingolstadt need points, they must match Werder.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
• Lay any late 0-0 if somehow this is 0-0 late on.

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14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg - 1.82 Frankfurt

• 3 consecutive draws in head to heads, the last was 1-1.
• This is 10th v 16th in the German Bundesliga. A feeling that Frankfurt are not in this relegation battle. They are not mathematically out of it however.
• Augsburg are bang in the middle of the survival fight.

Frankfurt other stats

• No win in 10 matches, failing to score in 7 of those matches. They have scored in their last 3 matches.
• 3 consecutive home draws.
• Only 1 team has scored in home matches v 14th and lower.

Augsburg 100% stats

• No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Augsburg other stats

• Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
• Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 aways.
• 10 of the last 12 matches saw 2 goals before halftime at least.
• Conceded in their last 14 matches.
• Only 1 win v top 11 away.

Conclusions

• Another of those on form matches. On form there is a strong argument for Frankfurt with their strong enough home form and Augsburgs poor away form v top 11 sides.
• Augsburg keep conceding goals too. And meet a Frankfurt scoring in their last 3 matches.
• I would lay any late draw and home that Frankfurt home draw sequence ends. Relegation six pointer for Augsburg.

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15:00 - Wolves v Blackburn - 2.16 Wolves

• 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
• Wolves are safe from relegation but Blackburn currently hold the 3rd bottom spot. So tight is the bottom half of the English Championship that Blackburn can salvage their season but they are running out of matches. 4 matches remain for Wolves but only 3 for Blackburn.
• Just basic research here.
• 6 wins in 8 matches for Wolves, losing 2 of their last 3 matches.
• Wolves have not had a draw in 10 home matches.
• 2 1-0 wins and a 0-1 loss for Wolves at home to the bottom 4.
• 17 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
• Only 1 win in 12 matches for Blackburn. Their last 6 wins were only 1-0 wins so they need clean sheets it seems.
• Blackburn have scored 2 goals on 4 occasions this year and still they have not won.
• Blackburn have not had a 0-0 away but have had 11 0-0's at halftime away.
• 17 of their 21 goals were scored 2nd half.
• It is must-win territory for Blackburn from now on. But then when they score 2 goals, they still cannot win. A clean sheet is a necessity it seems.
• Wolves v the bottom 4 have intriguingly seen 3 1-0 scorelines.
• This is not a match which greatly appeals but I would note any 0-0 at halftime as both teams score the vast majority of their goals in the second half. I would expect 2nd half goals.
• Back 0-0 pre match if you want an angle?

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15:00 - Rotherham v Ipswich - 2.04 Ipswich

• 2-2 the last time these 2 teams met. This match is effectively a dead rubber and I will not be playing in it. Rotherham are relegated. Ipswich are safe and have little bar league positions to gain from now on.

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15:00 - Wigan v Cardiff - 2.22 Wigan

• I fear Wigan are down. Cardiff are safe from relegation and ensconsed in mid table mediocrity.
• Wigan have won their last 2 home matches 3-2 so will take heart from those. But they come in the midst of 5 defeats.
• Wigan have conceded 2 or more goals in each of their last 6 matches.
• Wins at home v 11th, 14th and 16th gives Wigan hope.
• Only 3 defeats in 12 matches for Cardiff did come away from home.
• They are unbeaten v 20th and lower away from home but did lose 1-0 to Wigan earlier in the season.
• The problem with Wigan is that they keep conceding 2 goals. Good news? Their last 2 wins were 3-2 at home!
• This I fear will have to be the outcome today if they cannot keep that back door shut. So lay Cardiff if Cardiff lead 0-2!

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15:00 - Burton v Leeds - 2.56 Leeds

• 2-0 Leeds when these 2 met earlier in the season.
• This is 19th v 7th in the English Championship. Burton are 4 points from relegation.
• Leeds are on equal points with 6th placed Fulham so will be keen to get a result with matches running out. There are 3 matches remaining for each of these teams to change their seasons.

Burton stats

• Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches so Leeds will be in with a shout here.
• Only 1 0-0 at home for Burton.
• Burton have won 1 and lost 4 matches at home to the top 6.

Leeds stats

• No win in 3 away but were playing 2nd, 3rd and 11th.
• Leeds have conceded in their last 14 away matches.
• They have not had a 0-0 away.
• Scored and conceded in all aways v 20th and lower, winning 3 and losing 1.

Conclusions

• There is a hint that Leeds recent form is the most consistent. Losing away to 3rd and 11th and drawing with 2nd is no disgrace.
• Burton tend to score and concede so note that if they lead 1-0.
• I would lay the late 0-0 here.
• I must recount that the market cannot split these 2 despite the obvious logic of siding with the top 7 side.

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15:00 - Nottm Forest v Reading - 2.5 Forest

• 2-0 Reading the last time these 2 met.
• This is 21st v 3rd in the Championship with 3 matches left.
• Reading can still get a top 2 spot but must win this match and hope lose their next match.
• A Forest win will bring 3 teams into play in the relegation fight.
• Not full research here as this will be one of those unique winner-could-take-all matches.

Nottm Forest stats

• Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
• 3-2-2-2-0 scored in recent home matches so have goals in them still.
• That said, 3 1-0 defeats in their last 4 matches.
• No 0-0 at home.
• Have amazingly beaten all of the top 4 they have played at home. This is why 3rd placed Reading's odds are not shorter.
• 26 of 36 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Reading stats

• 5 wins in 6 matches.
• Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
• Have beaten all teams 18th and lower away from home.
• Only 1 away defeat v 12th and lower.
• No away 0-0.

Conclusions

• 3 points are key for both sides. What is it with Wigan and the top 4? I would consider backing 2-1/1-2 as a trading vehicle here.
• Note Reading have been scoring and conceding recently at home and the above covers a Wigan win too.
• Lay any late 0-0. Both sides tend to avoid the 0-0.

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15:00 - Brentford v QPR - 2.02 Brentford

• 0-2 to Brenford in the last head to head.
• This is 11th v 17th in the English Championship.
• QPR are not strictly safe from relegation with 3 matches remaining. If they lose all 3 they will be in trouble.
• Brentford are not going to threaten the play-offs so it is season over for them. For that reason I will not fully research and just note the strong stats.

Brentford stats

• Only 3 defeats in 12 so a good recent run.
• 3 consecutive clean sheet home wins.
• No real pattern to the home form. Beat 18th, 19th and 21st I suppose that is relevant as QPR are 17th.
• A massive 13 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

QPR stats

• Trying their best to blow it! 5 consecutive defeats, 3 consecutive 2-1 defeats.
• 1-0-0-0-1 scored recently away.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• 8 1-0 defeats and 7 0-0's away at halftime.
• Only 6 away wins.
• 16 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Key points? This is a London Derby so on that basis I would expect both sides to be well up for it.
• Brentford strictly have nothing to play for this season any more bar this being a London derby and the 2nd last home match of the season.
• On form I would side with Brentford not to lose - but remember 3 points could secure QPR's Championship survival.

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15:00 - Huddersfield v Fulham - 2.38 Huddersfield

• 5-0 Fulham in the last head to head.
• This is 4th v 6th in the English Championship.
• Like Reading, Huddersfield can nab 2nd if Reading and Newcastle lose all of their remaining matches and Huddersfield win all of their remaining matches. Not gonna happen!
• Fulham are clinging to 6th spot.Only Leeds can shoe them out of a play-off place. A match of equal import for both sides.
• On that basis it is tough to call so I will continue just to note the key stats for each side in the hope there is a strong enough pattern to provide us with a betting angle.

Huddersfield stats

• 4 matches remain for Huddersfield so from that perspective, they have a better chance of nabbing 2nd spot with this precious game in hand.
• Only 6 draws all season and drew their last match so a rare occurrence.
• No 0-0.
• 9 0-0's at halftime at home.
• All wins at home v 7th-18th inclusive.

Fulham stats

• Only 2 defeats in 14 matches.
• 3 consecutive 3-1 wins.
• Scored last 14 away matches.
• Only 1 0-0 all season.
• Lost to 1st and 3rd away.
• 16 of 23 away goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0. These 2 tend to avoid 0-0's.
• Lay any late draw given the importance of the match and the fact Huddersfield have had only 6 draws all season.
• A match very much fitting the 'best team on the day' remark here. Fulham excellent recent goal scoring form and Huddersfield interestingly beating teams 7th-18th inclusive at home.

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15:00 - Bristol City v Barnsley - 1.74 Bristol City

• 3 consecutive 2-2 scorelines in head to heads from League One to the Championship.
• This is 18th v 14th in the English Championship. Bristol City are only 4 points above the relegation zone.
• Only 3 matches remain this season. It is all to play for, for Bristol City and beach towels out for Barnsley.

Bristol City stats

• Unbeaten in 5 at home with 3 consecutive wins so they are doing their best to avoid the drop.
• Only 1 0-0 all season.
• Unbeaten at home v 15th and lower. So where do 14th placed Barnsley fit in?
• Scored in all bar 1 home match v 12th and lower.
• 21 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Barnsley stats

• Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
• Only 1 loss away v 18th and lower saw them scoring 2 goals in that defeat.
• 19 of 28 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Motivation v mid-table mediocrity?
• Although Barnsley have only one loss v teams 18th and lower, Bristol City have actually shown the form to get a result today. I must be with the motivated home side if playing in this match (and remember that we do not need to play just because the match has been researched).

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15:00 - Sheff Wed v Derby - 1.84 Sheff Wed

• 2-0 Derby in the last head to head.
• This is 5th v 9th in the Championship with 9 available points remaining.
• Sheffield Wed are the only side to benefit from continued winning and that is to preserve a top 6 spot from 7th and 8th who are waiting to pounce. Derby are missing out on the play-offs.
• Just basic research here.
• Sheff Wed have 4 consecutive wins so real momentum at the moment.
• Sheff Wed have had only 1 0-0 at home.
• No draw v top 15, Sheff Wed won all bar defeats to 1st, 3rd, 7th, 11th.
• Sheff Wed scored 12 goals last 15 mins of home matches.
• 3 consecutive wins for Derby ended with a loss and a draw.
• Only 1 win in 7 away for Derby was v a poor Birmingham side.
• No 0-0 away for Derby.
• Derby have not beaten a side above them in the league away from home.

Conclusions

• Momentum and motivation is with Sheff Wed here against a Derby side yet to beat a team above them in the league.
• Lay any late 0-0.
• Lay any late draw particularly as Sheff Wed have scored 12 goals in the last 14 mins of home matches.

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15:00 - Bournemouth v Middlesbrough - 1.88 Bournemouth

• Middlesbrough are 6 points shy of Hull's safe 4th bottom pitch. Bournemouth are 7 points clear of the relegation zone.
• A Bournemouth win you'd think would give them one foot in the Premiership next season. If Boro fail to win today, you'd think it's goodbye, not mathematically though.

Bournemouth 100% stats

• 5 matches remain.
• No draw home or away v teams below them in the league.

Bournemouth other stats

• No win in 4.
• Last 2 home defeats were v Chelsea and Man City.
• Beat 17th and 18th at home.
• 50% over 3.5 goals matches.

Middlesbrough 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 15 side.

Middlesbrough other stats

• No win in 15 matches overall and in 15 matches away from home.
• 9 0-0's at halftime away.
• Beat Bournemouth 2-0 at home. Sunderland win the only away win.

Conclusions

• One last hurrah for Middlesbrough to buck the form? It does not look likely on form. Boro do know though that they can beat teams 16th and lower. All 4 wins have come here, albeit 3 at home.
• On form (those words again!), Bournemouth are much the likelier winners. I say that as they tend to avoid draws v teams below them in the league, and with Boro on a 15 match away run without a win.
• I would be with Bournemouth today in a match I do not have too many very strong trading angles into.

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15:00 - West Ham v Everton - 2.26 Everton

• 2-0 Everton earlier this season.
• This is 13th v 7th in the Premiership.
• West Ham are 9 points clear of relegation with 15 points possible.
• The top 4 is still within Everton's grasp with consistent wins and a bit of luck results wise.

West Ham 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.
• Not beaten a team above them in the league at home.

West Ham other stats

• After 5 consecutive defeats, they beat Swansea and drew with Sunderland.
• Only 7 clean sheets and failed to score only 6 times. A natural both teams to score team.
• 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Everton stats

• Only 2 defeats in 16 matches.
• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• DDLLD away recently (D=draw, L=Loss).
• Apart from losing to top 3 away, Everton have also lost away to 9th, 10th, 14th and 16th.

Conclusions

• West Ham will not be relegated. 3 points confirms this. They play a team in Everton who have the greater momentum. Only 2 defeats in 16 matches means they will be tough to beat today. DO note that they have no win in 5 away matches so are vulnerable but only lost to the big guns of late. If West Ham continue their both teams to score pattern, I can see Everton not losing and will therefore lay West Ham if West Ham score first. They conceded 2 goals for goodness sake v Blunderland!
• Note the very strong 2nd half scoring form from West Ham.

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15:00 - Hull v Watford - 1.95 Hull

• 1-0 Watford the last time these 2 teams met.
• This is 17th v 10th in the Premiership. Whilst not mathematically safe, Watford would need to lose all remaining matches and Swansea win all remaining matches for those teams to swap places. Ain't gonna happen.
• Hull are 2 points above the relegation zone so 3 points will keep them 4th bottom. It is them v Swansea I think for the last relegation spot.
• I will not do full research here as I feel Watford know they are safe.

Hull stats

• Unbeaten in 7 at home now. This is where their season could be saved.
• 5 wins in 6 at home for Hull who have scored and conceded in their last 4 at home.
• With only 3 clean sheets, they need to be scoring 2 to win!
• Only one home defeat outside of the top 6 so that again should bring added confidence.
• No 0-0's at home and 94% over 1.5 goals suggests we should expect 2 goals at least.
• Overwhelming scoring and conceding numbers 2nd half. Almost double scored and conceded 2nd half as first half at home.

Watford stats

• Pipe and slippers now. The job is done.
• 3 wins in 4 came at home.
• 3 consecutive away defeats gives Hull hope.
• Watford have conceded in their last 10 away.
• Watford have only the one defeat home and away v teams 16th and lower and that was v Sunderland.
• Watford concede heavily away either side of halftime.

Conclusions

• Questionable motivation for Watford today who are all but safe from relegation. Hull are winning at home and at the right time. Despite Watford's solid record v the bottom sides home and away, I do feel Hull have the momentum to continue winning and have 2 goals at least in them today. They do tend to concede and if Watford score first, I would expect Hull to equalise and push on.
• Hull have very strong 2nd half scoring stats so if 0-0 at halftime, fear not. I would expect at least 2 goals.

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15:00 - Swansea v Stoke - 2.28 Swansea

• 3-1 Stoke the last time these 2 met.
• This is 18th v 11th in the Premiership.
• Stoke are 11 points clear of relegation with 15 possible. Swansea are in the bottom 3 and it seems this is a battle between them and Hull for the safe 17th spot.

Swansea 100% stats

• No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Swansea other stats

• 5 defeats and a 0-0 last 6 matches.
• Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• Unbeaten in 4 at home though with 3 wins and a 0-0 v Boro.
• Only 2 0-0's all season so that last 0-0 rare.
• 4 wins out of 5 came at home v 9th-15th inclusive.
• 13 goals conceded at home last quarter hour of matches.

Stoke 100% stats

• Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower.

Stoke other stats

• 4 defeats in their last 5 matches.
• Failed to score in last 5 away.
• Only 1 0-0 away.

Conclusions

• If Stoke have failed to score in their last 5 away and only had 1 0-0 away it does suggest the Swans have a chance today. 3 wins and a 0-0 for Swansea in their last 4 at home.
• I do not think we will see a 2nd 0-0 at home in a row so would lay any late 0-0.
• Stoke are unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower but seem to have lost their mojo as their season ends in safety and mid table mediocrity. I would side with Swansea to not lose today.

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15:15 - Villareal v Leganes - 1.67 Villareal

• 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 5th v 17th in Spanish Primera Liga. Villareal may not be able to progress into the top 5 this season.
• Leganes are 5 points above the relegation zone so points are at a premium.

Villareal 100% stats

• No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Villareal other stats

• 3 defeats in their last 5 matches.
• No draw in 10 matches.
• Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
• Not conceded in both halves.

Leganes 100% stats

• No 0-0 away.
• No win home and away v top 9 teams.
• No over 4.5 goals away.

Leganes other stats

• Only 2 wins in 20 matches.
• No win in 12 away.
• Conceded in their last 12 away.
• Only one win home or away v top 15 teams.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0.
• Leganes need points but no win in 12 away suggests struggles today.
• Lay Leganes if Leganes have scored first.
• Lay any late draw.

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16:00 - PSG v Montpellier - 1.18 PSG

• 0-0 and 3-0 Montpellier in the last 2 head to heads. Intriguing!
• This is 2nd v 12th in French Ligue 1. PSG are on equal points with Monaco but have played a game more.
• 5 matches left for PSG, 3 of which are at home. Montpellier are not yet safe from relegation.

PSG 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home.
• All wins at home v 13th and lower.
• Not conceded 2 goals in a match at home v 4th and lower.
• Not lost to nil at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

PSG other stats

• 13 wins and 2 draws in their last 15 matches.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 5 matches.
• 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
• 22 of 34 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Montpellier 100% stats

• No away 0-0.
• All defeats away to the top 7.
• Not beaten a top 15 side away with all defeats bar a draw.
• Scored and conceded in all of those defeats v top 7.

Montpellier other stats

• 2 consecutive 2-0 scorelines.
• Failed to score in only 6 matches.

Conclusions

• This may not be as straightforward for PSG as the odds suggest. Normally 1.18 odds suggests 3/4 goals from PSG.
• Watch out for Montpellier scoring. They consistently score away v top teams and have scored home and away in 3 of the 4 matches v top 2. Naturally as traders we want Montpellier to lead so we can get that trading angle.
• PSG have had 8 0-0's at halftime at home. The last time they were these odds at home, they actually had a 0-0 at halftime and did score their 3+ goals quota 2nd half so that is another ready angle.

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17:00 - Atalanta v Bologna - 1.37 Atalanta

• Atalanta have won the last 2 head to heads 2-0.
• This is 5th v 14th in Italian Seria A - 10 points from top 3 for Atalanta. Bologna look safe from relegation with a 14 point gap.

Atalanta other stats

• 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Only 3 home defeats.
• 17 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bologna 100% stats

• No win home or away v top 8 teams.
• No win away v top 13 sides.

Bologna other stats

• Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
• Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
• 8 0-0s at halftime away.
• 17 of 24 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Motivated v un-motivated and form backs up the fact that Atalanta should not be losing this match.
• Bologna must be layed if scoring first. I would lay any late 1-1 and hope Atalanta end that sequence.
• Note a strong 2nd half bias scoring wise so if 0-0 or 0-1 I would expect second half goals.

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17:30 - Mgladbach v Dortmund - 2.1 Dortmund

• 1-3 and 4-1 Dortmund in the last 2 head to heads suggests Dortmund fancy the 3 points.
• This is 9th v 4th in the German Bundesliga. A top 3 spot is still within Dortmunds grasp. Top 5 is achievable for Mgladbach.

Mgladbach 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 4 side this season.
• Failed to score 2 goals at home to top 4.

Mgladbach other stats

• Scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 matches.
• 3 wins in 4 home matches. Only lost 0-1 to Bayern in that run.
• 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dortmund 100% stats

• No away 0-0.

Dortmund other stats

• Only 4 defeats in 23 matches all came away from home.
• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 16 matches.
• Scored in their last 20 matches and last 12 away.
• Only 2 away wins v top 12 teams.

Conclusions

• This is post-Champions League Dortmund so fatigue may play a role especially in an away match where the home team may be smelling blood.
• Mgladbach have yet to beat a top 4 side. Is there any reason to expect any different? Well they are in solid form at home and only went down 0-1 to Bayern Munich.
• If 0-0 at halftime fear not, Mgladbach are very vulnerable to conceding goals 2nd half.
• As to Dortmund, they don't do 0-0's away so lay any late 0-0 or expect 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime.
• You can chance laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market given the very recent record for Dortmund (again as long as they are not affected by their mid week exertions).
• On form Dortmund should not lose. And we know it is a must win really in the hope of capturing 3rd.

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17:30 - Osasuna v Sporting Gijon - 2.62 Osasuna

• Osasuna are relegated here but Sporting Gijon cling to hope in the Spanish primera liga, albeit they are 3rd bottom.
• I will just note the major patterns for both teams.
• Osasuna are all but down, having to meet Barcelona and Sevilla in the run in.
• Osasuna won 2 of their last 4 matches.
• Those were the first wins since 21st October 2016.
• Osasuna have scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.
• Only 1 win for Osasuna at home was v 17th.
• Osasuna have not won to nil at home.
• Only 2 win in 20 got Gijon. They must start winning again.
• Only 1 win away for Gijon was v 18th and they drew away 0-0 v 19th.
• Osasuna need to win every single remaining match in order to have a chance of staying up, and then hope the likes of Leganes, Deportivo and Malaga conveniently lose all of their remaining matches.
• Both sides are as poor as each other. Sporting are unbeaten away v the bottom 4 without conceding. Osasuna note have yet to win to nil at home so if scoring first, it does suggest we lay Osasuna in a match which really is tough to call.

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19:45 - Espanyol v Atl Madrid - 1.8 Atl Madrid

• 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 9th v 3rd in Spanish Primera Liga.
• Madrid are 7 points shy of 2nd spot but have Sevilla only 3 points away in 4th place.
• Top 4 unlikely for Espanyol this season.

Espanyol 100% stats

• Not beaten the top 3 yet this season.

Espanyol other stats

• Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
• 6 wins in their last 7 at home.
• Scored in their last 10 at home.
• Only 1 win home and away v teams above them in the league.
• 19 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

• Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
• Not conceded 2 goals in an away match v 8th and lower.

Atl Madrid other stats

• 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
• Scored in their last 12 matches.
• No defeat in 8 away.
• 10 0-0s at halftime away.
• 19 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Thoroughly professional in knocking out the Great Bard and Leicester, Atl Madrid return to the important business of retaining a top 3 Berth.
• They have a great chance of that continuing today as they are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower and do not concede 2 goals away.
• This tells us that Espanyol are unlikely to hold on to any 1-0 lead.
• Espanyol are in the goals but have a woeful record of wins v the top 10 teams.
• Note Madrid's overwhelming 2nd half scoring stats. If 0-0 or 1-0 fear not and expect a Madrid win.

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19:45 - Fiorentina v Inter - 2.7 Inter

• Another match in which the market is lukewarm in choosing sides.
• 4-2 Inter in the last head to head.
• This is 8th v 7th in italian Seria A. Top 4 is more possible for Inter Milan than it is for Fiorentina.
• Basic research here.

Fiorentina stats

• Only 3 defeats in 15. Lost to a 93rd minute Empoli penalty last match. Very undeserved!
• That was the sole loss at home this season and if the match ended 90th minute, it would have been a score draw.
• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• 1-1-1 scored in their last 3 home matches - poor stuff compared to 2+ previously.
• Scored in their last 12 at home.
• 11 home matches either 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime.
• All draws v 3rd-10th inclusive at home and infact no wins home or away v those teams.
• 12 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Inter Milan stats

• No win in 4 matches conceding 2 goals in each. 2 2-2 scorelines.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• No 0-0.
• 10 away halftime scores either 1-0 or 0-0.
• Not beaten a top 10 side away.

Conclusions

• Remember that there is always a good reason when the market has priced the favourite in a match at 2.7 odds. It tells us that the favourite is not a strong favourite by any means.
• 7th v 8th here. We cannot get any tighter.
• I cannot call this one. Negatives for Fiorentina? Failed to beat any side 3rd-10th inclusive home or away yet only 1 all at home all season.
• Inter Milan have not beaten a top 10 side away. So we can be equally as negative about either team. A match for the in-play stats I am afraid.

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