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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 21, 2017

Live chat at 14:30 today for a typically busy Saturday. I thought I would look at the English Championship and am regretting it. Tough to get angles into a lot of matches. In-play stats I hope will provide the opportunities.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Chelsea v Watford - 1.33 Chelsea

  • 1-2 Chelsea and 4-3 Chelsea in the last 2 head to heads.

Chelsea

  • 2 consecutive losses for Chelsea.
  • Chelsea have failed to score in their last 2 home matches.
  • Only conceded 2 goals once in 6 matches - their last match.

Watford

  • Another top 4 team!
  • 0-2, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 in the last 4 away matches.
  • Only loss came v Man City.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Watford have scored 2+ goals in 6 matches this season.
  • Not played a top 9 team away from home.

Conclusions

  • The bubble will burst at some point for Watford. A degree of luck in their win v Arsenal. Had Ozil scored when he had a clear cut opportunity, then obviously things would have been different.
  • Chelsea have failed to score in 2 home matches now. Do not expect them to fail again today.
  • Watford may score but I feel Chelsea will remind them who the proper top 5 team really is. I put the last loss for Chelsea down to post International and pre Champions League.
  • I would lay Watford if Watford score first.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Man Utd - 1.35 Man Utd

Huddersfield

  • Only 2 wins came first 2 matches of the season.
  • The pressure is beginning to tell now.failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 1-0-1-0 scored at home.

Man Utd

  • 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 0-1 and 0-0 last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once, last match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came last match.

Conclusions

  • It does all point towards a Man Utd win to nil. The only times United have struggled ( 2 recent away draws) the matches have been pre-Champions League matches.

15:00 - Man City v Burnley - 1.13 Man City

  • Tight 2-1 Man City wins recently in head to heads. City have scored 2 goals in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.

Man City

  • All wins bar a 1-1 draw with Everton.
  • 5-6-5-1-7 goals scored recently.
  • 5-5-7 scored recently at home.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Burnley

  • 4 draws and 2 1-0 wins last 6 matches.
  • 0-1-0-1-0-1-1 scored recently. Only managed to score 2 goals v 9 Man Chelsea.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 away meeting the likes of Tottenham, Liverpool and Everton.
  • 5 of 6 away goals scored first half.

Conclusions

  • At the rate City are scoring, Burnley will not stand a chance, particularly as they cannot find that 2nd goal beyond playing a 9 man team.
  • We should really expect 3+ goals from City and we should not see a 0-0 at halftime.

15:00 - Newcastle v C Palace - 2.06 Newcastle

  • Palace - right time to meet Chelsea post International and pre Champions League. I would not read too much into that win. Those were their first goals of the season.

Newcastle

  • Newcastle have played 2 other newly promoted sides and lost 1-0 away. Wins have come v West Ham, Swansea and Stoke City.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 2 wins and a draw at home. Looking good.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 0-0.

Crystal Palace

  • Failed to score in all bar their last match where they scored 2 goals and beat Chelsea 2-1.
  • Is this a sign that Woy has Palace embedding his style or is this a sign that Palace opportunistically caught Chelsea between a rock (post Internationals) and a hard place (pre Champions League).

Conclusions

  • I like what I see from Newcastle at the moment. I am unsure as to whether Palace's win v Chelsea is a turning point. So it is very much a watching brief for Palace. On seasonal form, I would favour Newcastle.

15:00 - Stoke v Bournemouth - 2.14 Stoke

  • 1-3 Stoke, 0-1 Bournemouth and 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.

Stoke

  • Only 2 wins v Arsenal and Southampton.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2-1-2-1-4 goals before halftime in recent matches.
  • Scored first in 3/4 home matches.

Bournemouth

  • 4 losses away.
  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored away.
  • 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime but only 1 0-0 at fulltime.

Conclusions

  • Incongruous halftime stats.
  • Both sides have only the one clean sheet.
  • Stoke have played Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea and Southampton at home and this is a drop in class for Stoke.
  • Bournemouth will end their losing sequence away but Stoke could go unbeaten at home today.

15:00 - Swansea v Leicester - 2.54 Swansea

  • Leicester have won 4 of the last 5 matches.
  • Swansea won their last home head to head.

Swansea

  • 3 losses at home ended with a win v Huddersfield.
  • Failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
  • Only 2 wins this season.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 goals conceded at home in the last 15 mins of home matches.

Leicester

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2 losses and 2 draws away.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • All losses have come v current top 8 sides, Swansea are 13th.

Conclusions

  • Leicester have a good record v the Swans.
  • They have only scored 2 goals on 3 occasions.
  • No angles here for me. Do look for Swansea last 15 mins of home matches.

17:30 - Southampton v West Brom - 1.85 Southampton

  • A number of teams in the Premiership ended their poor scoring runs last weekend. Southampton were one such team although one of the goals was a penalty.

Southampton

  • Failed to score in 3 home matches this season.
  • Only 2 wins v West Ham at home and Palace away.
  • 5 consecutive matches without 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 losses at home came v the current top 4.

West Brom

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 wins came 1st 2 matches of the season.
  • 1-1-1-1-0-0-2-1 goals scored this season. When they scored 2 they still drew the match.
  • All 3 away goals scored came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • There are so many Premiership teams in poor early season form making it hard to trust them. Look at Southampton. Failing to score in 3 matches at home. Now they score 2 goals.
  • West Brom have scored 2 goals only once and not won. Oh Lordy!

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Monaco v Caen - 1.36 Monaco

  • Monaco have scored 2 goals at least in 5 of the last 6 head to heads.

Monaco

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 3 wins and a draw at home.
  • Only 1 draw.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Caen

  • No draw.
  • 3 losses in 4 were 1-0.
  • Lost all matches they failed to score to.
  • 6 1-0 scorelines saw 3 losses and 3 wins.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals match.

Conclusions

  • If Caen don't score they don't win seems to be the pattern. Their defeat v current top teams is only 1-0.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Over 2.5 goals plays under 2.5 goals. This looks like attack v defence. Monaco are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime but it would not surprise if we see one today especially if Caen click defensively.

19:00 - Amiens v Bordeaux - 1.73 Bordeaux

Amiens

  • Failed to score in 6 of 8 matches. Finding French Ligue 1 difficult.
  • When they did score, they won.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Bordeaux

  • Only loss came away v PSG.
  • 2-2, 3-3, 0-0, 0-1, 6-2 away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Not led at halftime away yet.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 1st half. PSG may skew this though, scoring 6 v Bordeaux.

Conclusions

  • Newly promoted Amiens are struggling. Bordeaux have scored 2 goals at least on 3 occasions away and could simply outscore Amiens today.
  • Amiens might struggle to actually score.
  • Note that Bordeaux are yet to win at halftime so watch out for that. They could do their winning 2nd half.

19:00 - Angers v Toulouse - 1.92 Angers

  • 0-0 and 4-0 Toulouse in the last 2 head to heads.

Angers

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only in that defeat.
  • Last 3 matches they scored 2-3-2 goals.
  • 3 score draws and a loss at home.
  • No 0-0.

Toulouse

  • Loss, loss, draw, loss, draw in away matches.
  • 3 wins have all come at home.

Conclusions

  • Angers have suddenly started scoring 2 goals. But they conceded 2-3-0 in those matches too.
  • No strong angles for me in this match.

19:00 - Metz v Dijon - 2.56 home and away

  • 0-0 and 2-1 Metz in the last 2 head to heads.
  • These are the bottom 2 so we may not get a good match here.

Metz

  • All defeats and a single win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 1-0-1-0 goals scored at home.
  • Not played the bottom 8 sides yet so we may see an improved performance against fellow strugglers.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dijon

  • Both teams have scored in 7 of 9 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3-2-2-3 goals conceded away.
  • 0-2-1-3 goals scored away.
  • Opponents have scored first in all away matches.

Conclusions

  • For me, the team scoring the goals always has the nod over the team which adopts a defensive attitude.
  • On that basis, a slight nod to Dijon today who have scored 2-1-3 in their last 3 away matches.
  • Do note that Metz may actually find this an easier opportunity against a fellow struggler.

19:00 - Nantes v Guingamp - 2.1 Nantes

  • 2-0 Guingamp and 4-1 Nantes in the last 2 head to heads.

Nantes

  • 9 matches in and Nantes are getting into their stride. 2 losses began the season.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 follow ensuring an unbeaten run now.
  • Nantes though have scored 2 goals only once.
  • 4 of Nantes wins were 1-0.
  • Only scored 2 home goals.

Guingamp

  • 3 consecutive away defeats conceding 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • Contrasting stats. Guingamp tend towards over 2.5 goals and Nantes tend to strive for the 'Tony Pulis'. Nick a clean sheet and then a goal.
  • I do prefer congruity because it can be hard to tell which style will come out on top.
  • I would tentatively favour Nantes today. Guingamp are conceding 2 goals regularly away and whilst Nantes rarely score 2 goals away, they do score.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Hannover - 1.98 Augsburg

  • These 2 have not met since February 2016.

Augsburg

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 goals scored at home in the first 15 minutes.

Hannover

  • Only 2 defeats came last 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches without winning.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • All 0-0's at halftime away.
  • No team has scored or conceded in the first half away.

Conclusions

  • An interesting match in that there has not been a first half goal in a Hannover away match.
  • If that happens again, we could see both teams score 2nd half. That is the Hannover habit at the moment away.
  • It contrasts though with Augsburg scoring early in the first half.
  • I do prefer congruity.

14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Dortmund - 1.79 Dortmund

  • 3-1 and 1-2 Dortmund in the last 2 head to heads.

Frankfurt

  • Only draw came 1st match of the season.
  • 7 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 losses and a win at home.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, a loss and 2 wins.
  • Not played the top 6 at home.

Dortmund

  • Only 1 draw was a 0-0, same as Frankfurt.
  • Lost 2-3 v Leipzig, the only loss of the season. A draw and a loss in matches pre-Champions League.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 5 goals scored away within the first half hour.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see a 0-0 happening today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Dortmund could score quickly in the first half.
  • We could see a 2-1 / 1-2 today. Back these scorelines, hope both teams score and we get a 1-1. 2-1 scorelines have appeared in 4 of Frankfurt's 5 matches.
  • I would lay Frankfurt if frankfurt scores first.

14:30 - Mgladbach v Leverkusen - 2.54 Mgladbach

  • Both teams scored in the last 3 head to heads with Mgladbach winning.

Mgladbach

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Win at home.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leverkusen

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Both teams have scored in 4 away matches with 3 losses and a draw.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Both teams scored in 6 of 8 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score in a match in which the market cannot split the teams. On bare form this season, Mgladbach are good at home. Leverkusen have 3 losses and a draw away, scoring and conceding in every match.
  • I think both teams could score today and would prefer to lay Leverkusen if Leverkusen scored first.
  • We should certainly not see a 0-0.
  • Note Mgladbach have scored 5 goals at home 2nd half so if they have not scored first half, then expect them to score 2nd half.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Stuttgart - 1.56 RB

RB Leipzig

  • Only 2 defeats came away from home.
  • 3 consecutive wins saw both teams scored.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 wins and a draw at home, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Scored 2 goals in 6 matches at least.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Stuttgart

  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least away.
  • Not met the top 4 away but have lost in all aways.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form this season, Leipzig should be confident about scoring 2 goals again and securing a win. Look at Stuttgart conceding 2 goals at least away from home.
  • Stuttgart may start conceding 2nd half so note this.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market and be with Leipzig throughout today.

17:30 - Hamburg v Bayern Munich - 1.18 Bayern Munich

  • 8-0 the last time these 2 met, in Bayern's favour.

Hamburg

  • 5 losses and a draw in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 1-0-0-0 scored at home.
  • Losses 0-2 and 0-3 v top 3 teams at home. Bayern are 2nd.

Bayern

  • 2-0-3-2 goals in their 4 matches away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Conclusions

  • Bayern are back and scoring goals and have no Champions League distractions.
  • I expect 2 goals from them today at least. It was 0-1 to Bayern last time they visited Hamburg though.
  • Hamburg have failed to score in 3 at home so are in for a long afternoon. This does open the door for a possible win to nil 0-2 or 0-3 Hamburg lost v 1st and 3rd.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Levante v Getafe - 2.46 Levante

  • These 2 teams played in the 2nd tier in their last 2 head to heads.

Levante

  • Only 2 defeats came in their last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 consecutive matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Getafe

  • Both teams have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 away matches.
  • Home losses have come at home v top 5 and 1 loss away v 15th.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 away loss for Getafe and noticeably their home defeats came v the current top 5 teams.
  • There is a hint there that Getafe may cope with Levante. I am not overwhelmed by this match and will defer to the in-play stats.

15:15 - Betis v Alaves - 1.57 Betis

  • 1-0 Alaves and 1-4 Alaves in the last 2 head to heads.

Betis

  • Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
  • 3 wins and a 3-6 loss at home.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 2 this season.
  • 4-4-3 goals scored by Betis in their last 3 matches, 0-4-6 conceded!!
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Alaves

  • All defeats bar a sole win last away match.
  • 3 1-0 losses and a 0-2 win away.
  • Scored in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Betis are suddenly scoring like Champions. 10 goals in 3 matches. But they have conceded 10 goals in 2 matches.
  • Alaves have beaten Betis twice. This season though Betis looks as if they are capable of outscoring Alaves today.

17:30 - Valencia v Sevilla - 1.93 Valencia

  • The home side tends to win head to heads.

Valencia

  • Unbeaten with 4 consecutive wins, scoring 5-3-3-6 and conceding 0-2-2-3 goals.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 1-0-5-3 scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home.

Sevilla

  • 2 defeats came in their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 1 draw came first match of the season.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime but no 0-0 fulltime.
  • All wins have come v teams 14th and lower so need a context to their good start to the season.

Conclusions

  • I must be with Valencia today. Sevilla are starting to lose away and all wins came v the current bottom 7 teams.
  • Sevilla have done a lot of 0-0's at halftime so if 0-0 at halftime, feel confident in a 2nd half goal.
  • There is a feeling as I say above that Sevilla may stumble against the better sides and in Valencia they meet a side renewed this season.
  • We could see Valencia outscore Sevilla today.

19:45 - Barcelona v Malaga - 1.08 Barcelona

  • 0-0 and 2-0 Malaga in the last 2 head to heads. Intriguing.
  • Top v bottom.

Barcelona

  • All wins bar a 1-1 draw last match.
  • 2-5-6-3 goals scored at home.
  • 0-0-1-0 conceded at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored first in all home matches.

Malaga

  • All losses bar a 3-3 draw.
  • No goals scored away.
  • Failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • All 0-0's at halftime were not 0-0 at fulltime.

Conclusions

  • This could be a win to nil for Barcelona. That does open up a correct score 'punt' 3-0, 5-0, 7-0 for me. I would back with the Betfair Sportsbook as they allow cash out in play.
  • If 0-0 at halftime do not fear, Malaga have previous with 0-0's at halftime and not fulltime.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Sampdoria v Crotone - 1.58 Sampdoria

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Crotone in the last 2 head to heads.
  • The market expects revenge today.

Sampdoria

  • 3 wins at home scoring 2 goals at least.
  • 6 of 7 home goals scored 2nd half.

Crotone

  • Only won 1 match.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 0-1-1 scored away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads show a Crotone able to cope with Samp. But season form sees Sampdoria able to score 2 goals in their 3 at home and that may be enough against a side scoring 0-1-1 goals away from home.
  • I would lay Crotone if Crotone score first.

19:45 - Napoli v Inter - 1.66 Napoli

  • 2 consecutive Napoli wins to nil and on this occasion they may be too short.
  • This is 1st and 2nd.

Napoli

  • All wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not yet met the current top 11 at home.

Inter Milan

  • All wins bar a draw.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Not met the current top 4.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Inter Milan should not be dismissed here. Note Napoli are yet to meet the current top 11 at home so their superb early form is against other-than-the-top 11 form sides this season.
  • Milan were great in their win v AC Milan and look like a sturdier side this season.
  • I would lay Napoli if Napoli scored first. 1.66 is too short for me against current 2nd in the league.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Hearts v St Johnstone - 1.94 Hearts

  • St Johnstone are unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads.

Hearts

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 home match was a 0-0 at home v Aberdeen.
  • 3 away defeats.

St Johnstone

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

  • St J seem to be feeling the pace a bit now in the SPL where I thought they were on for a good season.
  • We do not know much about Hearts at home as they have only played the one match.
  • This is a bit of an unknown therefore today but I do think both teams could score and with that lack of recent form I would lay St Johnstone if they scored first and favour Hearts not to lose.

15:00 - Partick v Dundee - 2.38 Partick

  • Partick have won the last 3 head to heads.

Partick

  • No win sees all defeats bar 3 score draws.
  • 3-2-1-2 conceded last 4 at home.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Dundee

  • Only 2 wins came in a run at home recently.
  • All defeats and a 1-1 draw away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came last match.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which greatly appeals. No wins for the home side who tend to win head to heads.
  • Only 2 wins for the away side came at home. Not for me thanks.
  • You may seek solace laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you want.

15:00 - Ross Co v Hamilton - 1.94 Ross

  • 1-1, 1-1, 3-2 Ross in the last 3 head to heads.

Ross Co

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • All defeat bar a 1-1 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 wins and a draw v 8th and lower. Play 9th today.

Hamilton

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v current top 5.
  • 3 scored away v 6th and 2 scored away v 11th.

Conclusions

  • An argument can be made that these 2 are doing their losing v top 1/3rd league sides and therefore meet less-rarified air today.
  • Ross do their winning v 8th and lower and play 9th today. Hamilton do their losses predominantly v top 5 and meet bottom 3.
  • No strong angles I'm afraid. Only 1 clean sheet for Ross does suggest they will concede at some point.

17:30 - Breda v Zwolle - 2.46 Zwolle

Breda

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime in 5 matches and no 0-0 fulltime.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Zwolle

  • Only 1 loss was away to Ajax.
  • No away win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came last match.

Conclusions

  • Not really enough matches to come to firm conclusions.
  • I would not towards Zwolle here tentatively. Only the one loss but 3 draws away. I note their cluster of wins at home are all v teams aroung Breda's position in the league.
  • Only 2 wins Breda suggests Zwolle will get a chance today. Both teams could score and I would lay Breda if first goal scorers.

18:45 - Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.06 Excelsior

  • 2 consecutive 3-2 Excelsior wins in head to heads.
  • More of that today please!

Excelsior

  • All wins came away.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored at home. What a contrast to the 2 goals usually scored away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played a bottom 8 side at home (Sparta are bottom) so form may be skewed.

Sparta

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • It is hard to know how Excelsior will react. On the surface home form is poor but they are yet to meet bottom 8 sides and play bottom today who failed to score in 3 aways.
  • It would have to be a logical nod towards Excelsior v bottom of the league. The in-play stats will confirm.

18:45 - VVV v ADO Den Haag - 1.94 VVV

  • VVV, ADO, Draw in the last 3 head to heads. Nothing revealed there.

VVV

  • Have only lost to Ajax and PSV which is not a bad thing.
  • Win, Loss, Draw, Loss at home but remember who they have lost to! The 2 big boys.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

ADO

  • 3 of 4 defeats came at home.
  • Loss, Win, Win away.

Conclusions

  • Not enough matches played between these 2 to show strong patterns. I would though note that VVV have only lost to 2 of the big 3 in Holland so no disgrace and you might see an improved performance v lesser lights.

19:45 - Twente v Roda JC - 1.61 Twente

  • 6 wins for Twente and a 0-0 in the last 7 head to heads.
  • This though is not the Twente of yore.

Twente

  • No draw this season. Only 2 wins came last 2 home matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Roda

  • No draw this season either.
  • All defeats bar 2 consecutive wins now.
  • Tend to lose to nil v the top teams away but tend to score in other matches. Twente are certainly not a 'top team' anymore.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • The market is taken by Twente's last 2 home wins and inserts them as warm order for this match, despite all defeats bar those 2 wins.
  • Roda though have 2 consecutive wins so hitting some form of sorts.
  • A match where I would not trust Twente with stolen money. The value would seem to be laying Twente if Twente lead. Roda do score v lesser lights. I do repeat though that relying on 2 teams with all defeats and 2 wins is not to be encouraged too often.

15:00 - Aston Villa v Fulham - 2.4 Aston Villa

  • 1-0 Villa and 3-1 Fulham in the last 2 head to heads.

Aston Villa

  • Only 3 defeats this season. Did lose last match.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home.

Fulham

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 7 matches.
  • 5 over 2.5 goals matches last 6.
  • Like Villa only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • All draws v teams above them in the league (where Villa are).

Conclusions

  • An improving season from Aston Villa who have only tended to lose to good sides (e.g. top 2 away from home).
  • Villare are undefeated at home, have 5 clean sheet in 7 and are in good order.
  • Do not worry if 0-0 at halftime, expect a 2nd half goal.
  • Fulham are returning to their both teams to score pattern of last year.
  • Given Fulham tend to draw v teams above them in the league, I would lay Fulham if Fulham scored first.

15:00 - Barnsley v Hull - 2.38 Hull

  • I have taken a quick look at these 2 and the form is very similar.
  • Both sides have not beaten a top 11 team. Both teams perform well, do their winning and drawing v teams 14th and lower (Barnsley) and 20th and lower (Hull).
  • Hull's winnings are more congested at the bottom of the league (Barnsley are 19th).
  • Both sides have had only 1 clean sheet and Hull failed to score in only one. That tells us Hull like a both teams to score in their matches.
  • This is too tight for me to take sides. I would expect both teams to score so lay any leader 2-0 up or if you want, back the 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines and hope that both teams to score arrives in the shape of a 1-1. This enables you to trade out of both the 2-1 and 1-2 for a profit.

15:00 - Bolton v QPR - 2.5 QPR

  • As with the match above, the English Championship is hard enough to decipher without focusing on matches in which the markets cannot split the teams! 2.5 favourite here says as much.

Bolton

  • Bottom of the league.
  • Only win came last home match.
  • Failed to score in the 7 matches prior to that.
  • No draw at home and no draw at halftime at home.

QPR

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • As a consequence of only 2 clean sheets and failing to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.
  • Have draws only v bottom 3 sides this season.

Conclusions

  • Bottom of the league are bottom of the league for a reason. A sole win came last match. Surely not enough to suggest a sudden turn-around?
  • Bolton the no draws at home meet QPR the draw kings this season. Who will out?
  • We may see both teams score today and arguably we could lay the first goal scorer.

15:00 - Brentford v Sunderland - 1.76 Brentford

Brentford

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches saw 5 draws and 2 wins.
  • 4 consecutive home draws ended with a win last match.

Sunderland

  • Only 1 win came on the 2nd day of the season.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 goals scored in each of their last 2 away matches without winning.
  • No draw at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Brentford are the form side here and the market agrees. Sunderland could threaten a score draw so I would lay a late Brentford 1-0 lead. Sunderland amassed a huge corner count last weekend in a draw with QPR and are a team I will be keen to follow from an in-play stats perspective. Sunderland have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 (let's not mention the 5 and 2 conceded though!).

15:00 - Bristol City  v Leeds - 2.1 Bristol City

  • The home team has tended to win head to heads. It was 2-2 though the last time Leeds visited Bristol.

Bristol City

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches and a huge shock that they were held at home to 0-0 by Burton Albion last time out.

Leeds

  • 4 losses in 5 matches now.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • 4 of 6 wins came v the current bottom 4 sides. Flattering form?

Conclusions

  • City have utterly dominated a couple of matches this season but come out of it with no goal scored. That is always the risk with them. They might get a chance though against a Leeds team who have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.
  • The fact that 4 of Leeds' 6 wins came v bottom 4 sides is a concern to me too. I would favour Bristol City today but play the watch and wait game as they failed to score yet again last match.

15:00 - Derby v Sheff Wed - 2.3 Derby

  • Both sides shared the spoils last year.

Derby

  • 3 defeats, 2 came away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Only home loss came v 1st in the league.

Sheff Wed

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Wed are yet to show their hand.they have lost away to bottom 4 sides but beaten 9th away. No pattern to their form.
  • At home, Derby have only lost to 1st in the league and could score 2/3 at their best today so I would have to be with them.

15:00 - Sheff Utd v Reading - 2.06 Sheff Utd

Sheff Utd

  • 3rd in the league -great start to the season.
  • No draw this season sees all wins bar 4 losses, 3 of which came away.
  • 5 wins in 6 at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals yet in a home match.
  • 3 wins at home and 1 defeat were 1-0 so this might be a clean-sheet-nick-a-goal performance.

Reading

  • Only 3 wins, 2 came away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Rarely concede 2 goals but when they do, they lose.
  • Not met top 3 yet but lost 1-0 to 4th and 5th.
  • Not scored a 1st half goal at home.

Conclusions

  • No head to heads to work with. This might be a match in which you back 0-0 in the hope Sheff Utd aim for a 0-0 then a 1-0. Look too at Reading, 1-0 defeats only v top 5 teams.
  • Strictly on form, the home side are favoured in what could be a very tight match as I alluded to above. Only 2 clean sheets for Reading though does suggest that they will eventually concede.

15:00 - Wolves v Preston - 1.8 Wolves

  • 0-0 and 1-0 in the last 2 head to heads in Wolves favour.
  • 1st v 5th.

Wolves

  • Great managerial appointment is paying dividends.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Only 2 losses came v fellow top 3 sides.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Preston

  • 2 consecutive 2-2's.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss.
  • Not met current top 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams have scored 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches. But Preston are yet to meet a top 4 side.
  • Wolves have only lost to fellow top 3 sides so I would look to Wolves to win or draw today, even if Preston lead 0-2 (remember they have 2 consecutive 2-2 scorelines).
  • Wolves are a strong 2nd half scorer and conceder so this is good match to take on any 0-0 at halftime.

17:30 - Millwall v Birmingham - 2.26 Millwall