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I am not sure whether I can do a live chat webinar today. I may be meeting my brother today (I have been unable to meet him during the week as he works). I do hope you understand these unique circumstances. Living so far away from my family, I think it is vital to meet all of them at every opportunity. I will do a DRT Facebook live video. I have pencilled in a 14:30 DRT Facebook live video webinar IF I do not have any family plans. If I don't turn up, you'll know that I am on Uncle Duty!

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Mainz v Leverkusen - 1.8 Leverkusen

Mainz - 14th

  • No draw.
  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 win recently.
  • Only clean sheet came last match.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home - inconsistent.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats home and away v top 7.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leverkusen - 7th

  • 2 wins and 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 matches away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3 away losses v 4th, 12th and 15th saw Leverkusen fail to score.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • The Leverkusen loss v Hertha Berlin came at home and was worryingly poor. First half they killed it. Second half they failed to turn up. Really poor.
  • Are they reliable?
  • I would lay the late draw. No draw this season for Mainz and no draw away for Leverkusen.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Mainz are inconsistent at home, winning and losing in turn. Note that Mainz are yet to beat a top 7 side BUT are Leverkusen reliable?

RB Leipzig v Augsburg - 1.26 Leipzig

  • 1st half outcome: RB Leipzig have won the first half in 10/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Augsburg have conceded first in 12/20 away matches. Augsburg have drawn 6/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Leipzig - 1st

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored 3+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins home and away v 9th and lower.

Augsburg - 10th

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • This should be a comfortable home win, scoring 2, even 3, goals.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Schalke 04 v Freiburg - 1.68 Schalke

  • Asian handicap: SC Freiburg have lost by two or more goals in 9/15 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost 8/12 such matches. Schalke 04 have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches.

Schalke - 5th

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • Only played 2 of the top 10 at home. 0-3 loss v 3rd, 0-0 v 4th.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Freiburg - 6th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • conceded last 6 away.
  • wins away v 9th , 17th and 18th.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form for Schalke v the top 10, 2 matches without scoring. Strong 2nd half scoring stats for Schalke. Note that if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Freiburg have failed to score in only 2 matches so may get on the scoresheet today. No defeat in 7 matches at home suggests Schalke may concede but not lose?

FC Koln v Werder Bremen - 2.52 FC Koln

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 8/10 W. Bremen away matches and +2.5 goals in 9/10 W. Bremen away matches. FC Koln have scored first in 4/7 home matches.
  • 2 consecutive wins for newly promoted Koln and they may fancy it today against a Werder whose wheels have fallen off.
  • 5 losses in 6 for Werder.
  • Only 3 wins. In 2 of those wins, they conceded 2 goals!
  • Werder are yet to keep a clean sheet.
  • Werder have scored and conceded in each of their last 8 away matches and conceded 2+ goals last 6 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home plays no 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Werder have not played a bottom 6 side away.
  • So...it is tough to read given Werder may fancy their chances v a newly promoted side (Union Berlin v Hoff for instance!). Werder are conceding 2 goals for fun and may be layable if leading 0-2 today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg - 1.16 Bayern

  • Asian handicap: Bayern have won by two or more goals in 11/17 home matches while Wolfsburg have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 trips to top-six teams. Wolfsburg have lost 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Bayern - 3rd

  • 2 losses recently ended with 2 wins - which were needed. 1-2 v Freiburg saw us profit from laying Bayern 0-1 up. They did nick a very very late winner. Still wholly unconvincing.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Loss, Win at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 12 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Lost 1-2 v 7th and 9th at home and play 8th today.

Wolfsburg - 8th

  • 2 losses in 3 away.
  • A draw and 2 losses away v the top 6.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bayern do not seem backable at such short odds given their inconsistencies but they play a Wolf without a win in 3 attempts v top 6 away.
  • In-play stats are key here. They showed Freiburg getting into the match when 1-0 down and may signal a lay of Bayern if Bayern lead.

17:30 - Hertha Berlin v Mgladbach - 2.22 Mgladbach

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 Hertha Berlin home matches and +3.5 goals in 9/15 Hertha Berlin home matches against top-six teams. B. M'gladbach have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Hertha

  • Well, well, well. Now we know why Hertha are improving. Jurgen Klinsmann is the new manager after 4 matches. 1-2 loss v Dortmund, 2-2 v Frankfurt, 1-0 win v Freiburg and 0-1 win v Leverkusen (when Leverkusen bossed the first half).
  • That is where I end the Hertha research because of new manager.

Mgladbach

  • 3/4 defeats this season came away.
  • 6 wins in 8 matches.
  • 3 defeats last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No draw 15 matches.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Hertha were coupon busters v Leverkusen. Under new manager so it must be a watching brief really for us at the moment. They may pull off a shock although on seasonal form, Mgladbach are ticking along but are vulnerable away (3 losses in last 4 away).

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Everton v Arsenal -2.38 Everton

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 Arsenal away matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 7/9 Arsenal such matches. Everton have scored first in 11/15 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 2 new managers means no research for me. In-play stats for sure. Duncan Disorderly has had an excellent influence on Everton 3-1 win and 1-1 draw so far.
  • 2 home losses and an away win for Arsenal under Freddie Ljunberg.

Norwich v Wolves - 2.02 Wolves

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Norwich home matches and +3.5 goals in 6/8 Norwich home matches. Wolves have conceded first in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Norwich - 19th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 home wins v 3rd and 11th.
  • Scored and conceded v top 7 with only one win.

Wolves - 8th

  • Only 3 losses. Lost last match.
  • Failed to score only 1st match.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • Scored last 16 and last 7 away.
  • Only 1 away defeat 3-2 v 16th.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins plays only 3 losses. I must favour Wolves today who are highly likely to score.
  • Norwich could concede 2 goals today as they have done in each of their last 7 at home.

Brighton v Sheff Utd - 2.28 Brighton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/19 Brighton home matches and in 6/8 Sheffield Utd away matches. Brighton have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches.

Brighton - 13th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • A win and 2 consecutive draws.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (62%).
  • 2 losses came v 2nd and 18th at home.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sheffield United - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • 5/5 score draws away v the top 15.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Note Brighton have a high % of 0-0's at halftime and that Sheff Utd score 80% of goals away in the 2nd half.
  • Sheff Utd score draws v top 15 suggests we may lay the first team to score?
  • I do expect 2nd half goals if none first half.

Aston Villa v Southampton - 2.44 Aston Villa

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/8 Aston Villa home matches and in 14/20 Southampton away matches against bottom-six teams. Southampton have scored first in 7/10 away matches.

Aston Villa - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Not played the bottom 3 at home but wins v 11th, 13th and 16th.

Southampton - 18th

  • 2 wins and then 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • No win in 5 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Both teams scored in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Conceded last 12 matches.
  • 62% 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not played the bottom 7 away.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 wins plays no win in 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets plays only 2 clean sheets.
  • Villa have not played the bottom 3 at home. Southampton have not played the bottom 7 away.
  • Saints do have a strong both teams to score pattern so note that.
  • I cannot chose one side over the other.

Bournemouth v Burnley - 2.44 Bournemouth

  • 1st goal: Bournemouth have scored first in 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Burnley have lost 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Burnley away matches.

Bournemouth - 14th

  • 5 losses and a win last 6 matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded at home last 2 matches.
  • Not played 9th-14th at home.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 8.
  • 8 of 12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Burnley - 12th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only away win v 20th.
  • All defeats came v top 10 home and away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in recent losing form. Burnley may find this an easier opportunity. All losses for them this season have come exclusively v the top 10.

Newcastle v Crystal Palace - 2.52 Newcastle

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 10/20 C Palace away matches and +2.5 goals in 12/20 C Palace away matches. Newcastle have drawn the first half in 8/11 home matches.
  • A cursory look at the form as the market suggests this is too tough to call.
  • 3-2-0-2-2-2-0 scored by Newcastle recently.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 recently for Palace in an unbeaten run of 4.
  • No defeat in 7 at home for Newcastle, scoring and conceding last 4 at home.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime both sides.
  • Only 1 loss for Newcastle at home was a 0-1 v Arsenal. They have conceded 2 goals only once away and that was v Man City.
  • Palace have lost so far exclusively to the top 7 and play 11th today.
  • IF Newcastle concede 1 goal maximum and if Newcastle can score 2 goals, then they are favoured BUT...as befits 2.52 the favourite, Palace simply lose exclusively to the top 7 this season.

Man City v Leicester - 1.42 Man City

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Man City home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/9 Leicester away matches against top-six teams. Leicester have lost 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.
  • A top 3 clash so no in-depth research.
  • 3 of City's 4 losses came away.
  • They failed to score only in their home defeat v Wolves.
  • City lost their last home match v Man Utd.
  • City have scored in their last 9 at home.
  • City are yet to meet the top 2 at home but noticeably a draw v 5th, loss v 6th and 8th.
  • Leicester have losses v 1st, 6th and a draw v 4th away so may simply struggle v the top 6 away.
  • An intriguing match in which I'll follow via the in-play stats. Both sides tend to congregate non wins v the top sides.

ITALIAN SERIA A

Udinese v Cagliari - 2.58 Udinese

  • 1st goal: Udinese have scored first in 12/19 home matches while Cagliari have lost the first half in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Cagliari have conceded first in 13/17 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 3/4 wins this season for Udinese were 1-0 only.
  • 3 losses last 4 matches.
  • All defeats v current top 7 for Udinese and they play 5th today.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home by Udinese came 2nd half.
  • Only 3 losses for Cagliari this season, and they were robbed with 2 90th minute concessions last match v Lazio.
  • Prior to that match they scored 2 goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • They have scored in each of their last 15 matches.
  • Cagliari are unbeaten away but yet to meet the bottom 5, where Udinese reside.
  • There must be a reason behind the market here but on seasonal form, we'd be solidly with Cagliari today. Having a superb season, they were a minute away from a win v Lazio. Udinese are limited in terms of their wins. If leading 1-0 they must be opposed and then cover the 1-0. Seasonal form is definitely with Cagliari today but acknowledge the market cannot split these 2.

Inter v Genoa - 1.37 Inter

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 Inter Milan home matches while Genoa have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches. Genoa have lost 17/20 away matches against top-six teams.

Inter - 1st

  • Inter at home, Juve away. They must take advantage.
  • Only loss v Juventus.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 100% wins v 14th and lower.

Genoa - 19th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 and in 8 away.
  • Conceded 2-4 goals away v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • We must expect a home win for Inter, scoring 2-4 goals. Simple angle based on simply readable form.

Torino v Spal - 1.75 Torino

  • Match outcome: Torino FC have won 12/19 home matches while SPAL 1907 have lost 8/10 away matches. SPAL 1907 have conceded first in 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Torino (9th)

  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not played the bottom 5 at home.
  • Beat 18th and 19th away.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

SPAL - 20th

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 7 losses and a draw last 8 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • All defeats away v the top 12.

Conclusions

  • SPAL by default look opposable. All defeats away v the top 12. Do note that Torino scored 6/8 goals 2nd half at home.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Mallorca v Sevilla - 1.76 Sevilla

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 5/9 Mallorca home matches and in 8/11 Sevilla away matches. Sevilla have lost 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Mallorca - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Beat 2nd 1-0 but that was the only win home and away v the top 12.

Sevilla - 3rd

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Lost last match...at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No defeat 4 away.
  • Scored last 9 and last 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away loss v 8th and lower came v 16th.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 wins plays only 4 defeats. Mallorca's record v the top 12 suggests they are more likely to lose or draw, rather than win.

15:00 - Barcelona v Alaves - 1.16 Barcelona

  • Match outcome: Barcelona have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-half teams while Alaves have lost 5/6 away matches against Big Two teams. Barcelona have won by two or more goals in 8/10 home matches against bottom-half teams.

Barcelona - 1st

  • 3 losses came away from home.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 6/8 matches.
  • in 4/6 matches at home v 8th and lower, scored 5 goals.

Alaves - 14th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • 6 losses last 7 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Opponents led at halftime in 5/8 away.
  • 5 losses and a draw away v the top 10.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona could score 4/5 goals today if that pattern v 8th and lower at home continues.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Villarreal v Getafe - 2.18 Villareal

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/20 Villarreal home matches and +3.5 goals in 7/13 Villarreal home matches. Getafe have scored first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.

Villareal - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 7 came last match.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 50% 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 4/4 draws at home v the top 9.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Getafe - 4th

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 0-1, 1-1, 0-1 away recently.
  • 3/3 losses came v the top 5.
  • 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1 away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Getafe have been scoring only a single goal away recently and v 12th and lower.....but getting away with it. Same today? Do note that Villareal have failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals in Villareal matches.
  • Villareal best case draw today?

20:00 - Valladolid v Valencia - 2.14 Valencia

  • Match outcome: Valladolid have drawn 5/8 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Valencia have scored first in 12/20 away matches.

Valladolid - 15th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 3rd.
  • 0-0-0-1-1 goals scored though at home v the top 10.

Valencia - 8th

  • 4 wins, a loss and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • More vulnerable away, losses v 1st, 10th, 12th, 18th.

Conclusions

  • Valencia do lose away and that needs to be noted. Valladolid have only 1 loss at home but v the top 10 have score 0-0-0-1-1 goals. That suggests laying them if they score first but cover the 1-0 as insurance. Valencia remember have failed to score only once.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - St Johnstone v St Mirren - 2.2 St Johnstone

  • Match outcome: St Johnstone have won 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Mirren have lost 8/10 away matches. St Mirren have conceded first in 13/14 away matches.

St Johnstone - 10th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Opponents led at halftime at home 5/8.
  • Opponents score first at home 7/8.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Wins at home v 11th and 12th.

St Mirren - 9th

  • 2-0 win v St Johnstone earlier this season.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • Win, Draw last 2 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals away only once.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (56%).
  • Only away win v 12th was a 0-1.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form St Mirren simply lose away but St Johnstone have only beaten 11th and 12th.
  • We might see a 0-0 at halftime but at least a goal 2nd half. Not a match I want to focus on.

Livingston v Ross Co - 1.52 Livingston

  • Match outcome: Livingston have won 5/7 home matches against middle-third teams and they have scored first in 4/7 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Ross County away matches.

Livingston - 8th

  • 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (62%).
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Only home losses v 2nd and 3rd.
  • 1-4 win v Ross earlier this season.

Ross Co - 7th

  • After a run of 9 without a win, have won last 2 matches at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 away, conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Did beat 4th away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, you'd expect Livingston to oblige here, having only lost at home v top 3 sides. They do tend to score 2nd half at home so note that and Ross tend to concede a higher % 2nd half away so note that.
  • Ross are on a 2 match winning streak. Anything to read into that? The wins were at home and they have no win away, conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away.

Kilmarnock v Motherwell - 2.6 Kilmarnock

  • Asian handicap: Motherwell have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-half teams and they have lost 10/13 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 12/19 Kilmarnock home matches against top half non-Big One teams.
  • Only 1 win in 8 for Kilmarnock.
  • Kilmarnock failed to score last 3 matches but are unbeaten in 8 matches at home.
  • Only Rangers have beaten Kilmarnock at home.
  • Motherwell only drew 1st match of the season.
  • 3 wins last 4 matches for Motherwell.
  • All 3 away defeats for Motherwell came v the top 6.
  • The market suggests that this is too tough to call. I note Killy lost to Motherwell the last time these 2 met. But Killy have only 1 loss at home v 2nd in the league.

Hamilton v Hearts - 2.26 Hearts

  • 1st half outcome: Hearts have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Hearts such matches. Hamilton Ac have drawn 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Hamilton - 12th

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 11.
  • Conceded in each of their last 8 at home.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Hearts - 11th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 9 of their last 12 matches.
  • All 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I could see a 0-0 here if you look at Hearts v 8th and lower and Hamilton failing to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Back 0-0 pre-match?
  • Other than that, this is much of a muchness.

Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.25 Celtic

  • HT/FT: Celtic have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Aberdeen have had L/L double results in 6/10 away matches against Big One teams. Celtic have won 9/10 home matches against top half non-Big One teams.
  • Only loss for Celtic v Livingston.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored by Celtic in each of their last 9 matches and last 9 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/9 at home.
  • 100% wins at home for Celtic. 0-4 win v Aberdeen earlier this season.
  • Only 4 losses for Aberdeen.
  • Aberdeen are yet to beat the top 2 in 3 attempts. Hang our Hats on that?