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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 20, 2017

I am not sure of the efficacy of a live chat today but will do one all the same. 14:30 for the business end of the German Bundesliga in which teams are fighting to stave off relegation, and fighting to maintain, or grasp a European Club Competition space. I have avoided researching the dead rubbers, and there are a few in Germany and France.
As we do the live chat today we get exposure to the Norwegian and Swedish leagues. Get to know those leagues. They can bear fruit this summer. As can the tennis. I hope you have enjoyed my coverage of the Rome Masters. http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/tournaments will give you an indication of some of the tournaments I will be tennis trading this summer. So that's something to look forward to. I tend to leave Finals alone now as, rather like a Football Cup Final, it is a case of 'best on the day'.

14:30 - Dortmund v Werder Bremen - 1.26 Dortmund

  • This is a must win for Dortmund who have the same points as Hoffenheim and only goal difference keeps Dortmund 3rd.
  • One last hurrah for Werder. I know their key stats off my heart now. Away from home, expect to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Werder have failed to score only twice.
  • 4-3 and 5-3 losses in their last 2 matches tells us they entertain to the end.
  • Werder when meeting the big 2 away from home have conceded 6 and 3 goals. They scored in all away bar that loss to Bayern.
  • Dortmund are unbeaten at home and have 7 wins in their last 8 matches. 2 draws in 3 is worrisome for Dortmund.
  • Werder have scored 2 goals in 12 of their last 13 matches so Dortmund need to sort that defence out today.

Conclusions

  • A must-win for Dortmund today and seeing as Werder have conceded 4 and 5 goals in their last 2 matches, albeit scoring 3 goals in those 3 matches (lol), Dortmund must be in with a shout if their forward line fires.
  • I will oppose any Werder lead, however large it might be (0-2 etc). Both teams are highly likely to score.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as we are highly likely to see a goal before halftime as is the norm in a Werder away match.

14:30 - Ingolstadt v Schalke - 2.66 Schalke - dead rubber

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Augsburg - 1.38 Hoffenheim

  • This is a key German Bundesliga match for both sides. Hoffenheim must win and close the 4 goal deficit goal difference with Dortmund in order to be in with a chance of 3rd spot.
  • Augsburg are in a relegation battle. They are 14th, and a point should secure their survival. Even if Hamburg win, Augsburg have positive goal difference but a draw would secure survival. A win guarantees.
  • Hoffenheim have won the last 3 head to heads.
  • Hoffenheim's vulnerability (if you can call 4 defeats vulnerability) came away from home.
  • 7 consecutive wins at home now and in live chats we tend to keep the faith in the Hoff scoring. Take the last home match, a 90th minute winner.
  • Hoff are undefeated in 16 at home.
  • They have scored in their last 14 at home.
  • Hoff are unbeaten at halftime and fulltime at home.
  • Hoff did draw at home to 15th and 16th and meet 14th today.
  • Hoff have not lost to nil this season and this is a stat we have profited from constantly.
  • Hoff have scored 12 goals in the last 15 minutes at home.
  • Hoff have scored first in 13/16 at home.
  • I am afraid we cannot readily dismiss Augsburg despite their lowly placing. 1-1 draws with Mgladbach and Dortmund have them keeping their nose above water just enough to breath. 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches is excellent.
  • But they have no win in 5 away and have conceded in their last 10 away.
  • Augsburg have no win v the top 7 away and would need to replicate their 1-1 with Dortmund in order to have a chance at survival.

Conclusions

  • Remember the Hoff have not lost to nil this season so if Augsburg score first you know what to do.
  • We should be expecting a Hoffenheim goal at least today, whenever said goal may arrive! Keep the faith.
  • This should be a hard fought contest with both sides ideally needing 3 points.
  • 2-1/1-2 is my traditional Hoffenheim trade. Back 2-1/1-2 and trade out if 1-1.
  • Due respect to Augsburg's 1-1 v Dortmund!

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Leverkusen - 2.08 Hertha Berlin

  • Both teams have scored in 5 of their last 6 head to heads. Hertha won on the last Bayer visit.
  • This is 5th v 12th in the German Bundesliga. I include this match as Hertha's 5th place is under attack from Koln and Freiburg so this match is not a dead rubber.
  • Leverkusen are clear of relegation worry unless Hamburg win and close their negative 23 goal difference with Leverkusen!!
  • Only 4 draws for Hertha all season.
  • 6 losses and 3 wins though in their last 9 matches.
  • It takes a good one to beat Hertha at home of late. 6 wins recently. The only slip ups at home came v Bayern Munich  (1-1), Hoffenheim (1-3) and Leipzig (1-4). This immediately leans me towards the home side in their quest to stay in 5th spot.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in Hertha's last 9 matches.
  • All wins at home for Hertha v 9th and lower keeping all clean sheets.
  • What is up with Leverkusen? Perennial top 3 team but now in the mire and only just staving off relegation.
  • 2 consecutive score draws have actually saved their season. Leverkusen wins away tend to come v 10th and lower.
  • Leverkusen have lost away to the top 6.

Conclusions

  • Although not mathematically safe (Hamburg need to score 26+ goals and not even a resurrection of 'Brut' man Kevin Keegan back into the ranks can help Hamburg there), Leverkusen are safe it seems from relegation. Hertha Berlin are solid at home of late and I can see them getting the 3 points they need today. Leverkusen are not a Bayern/Hoff/Leipzig so should not bother Hertha Berlin at home.
  • I must oppose any Leverkusen lead.

14:30 - FC Koln v Mainz - 1.66 FC Koln

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 7th v 13th in the German Bundesliga.
  • This is a match of equal importance. A win for Koln could see them take a European Club competition place as they have superior goal difference but 3 points shy of Hertha in 5th.
  • Mainz are 13th. A Hamburg win could leave Mainz in all sorts of bother as regards relegation.
  • The most recent form tends to reveal the team at the end of the season.
  • Koln have 3 draws and a win but they met the likes Dortmund, Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen. That is a reasonable haul all things considered.
  • Only 2 defeats at home for Koln. They have not conceded 2 goals at home v any team 10th and higher in the league.
  • Only 2 wins in 11 for Mainz.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win recently for Mainz is reasonable form.
  • Mainz have only 1 win v top 11 away.

Conclusions

  • With only 2 defeats at home, you'd think that Koln are favoured today. With Mainz having only 1 win v top 11 away, this may be a stretch too far for Mainz today. That would be a trading angle for me.

14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v RB Leipzig - 1.93 RB - dead rubber

  • 3-0 Frankfurt in the last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 2nd in the German Bundesliga.

14:30 - Hamburg v Wolfsburg - 2.66 Hamburg

  • 1-0 Wolfsburg in the last head to head.
  • This is 16th v 15th in the German Bundesliga.
  • It is win only for Hamburg today. Wolfsburg simply have to not lose today and they stay up.
  • This is the archetypal relegation six pointer!
  • No win in 5 matches saw 3 losses and 2 draws.
  • Hamburg are pretty good at home with only 1 defeat v 4th-17th at home.
  • V 11th and lower at home Hamburg have yet to score that 2nd goal.
  • Only 2 wins in 8 for Wolfsburg.
  • Only 1 loss for Wolfsburg away v 11th and lower came v bottom side.

Conclusions

  • 2.66 tells you the market knows this is a relegation six pointer. The simple fact is that Hamburg must win. Wolfsburg simply must not lose.
  • Which of these teams do you think can pull off what they need. Hamburg actually have an excellent unbeaten record at home v 4th-17th at home.

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Freiburg - 1.21 Bayern

  • Champions v a team 6th in the German Bundesliga. Freiburg have Koln and Werder Bremen breathing down their necks to take their 6th place.
  • Bayern have won their 2 matches since clinching the title but 1-0 v Darmstadt saw Darmstadt miss a penalty and 4-5 v Leipzig saw Leipzig lead 3-1 and 4-2.
  • What do we learn? Bayern do let teams in with a chance post Champion win.
  • Freiburg have lost to all top 3 teams. Freiburg have lost to all top 7 teams away from home.
  • It is Bayern's last home match of the season. Unburdened by the Champions League, Bayern may be party poopers for Freiburg. Bayern though have let teams in with a chance in their last 2 matches.

14:30 - Mgladbach v SV Darmstadt - 1.37 Mgladbach

  • Nothing really for Mgladbach to push for on this last day of the German Bundesliga.
  • Darmstadt are relegated.

14:30 - Rosenborg v Lillestrom - 1.34 Rosenborg

  • Rosenborg tend to win head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 15th in Norwegian Eliteserien after 9 matches.
  • Rosenborg lost their first match of the season, at home last match so do not expect 2 consecutive defeats today.
  • 3-2-0-2-1 goals scored by Rosenborg in home matches.
  • Rosenborg are yet to play bottom 6 sides at home.
  • Rosenborg have scored first in 4 of their 5 home matches.
  • Only 2 wins all season for Lillestrom suggests they are unlikely to trouble the league leaders.
  • They have scored 1 goal in each of their 4 away matches and came away with only 1 win.
  • That was the only match in which they kept a clean sheet.

Conclusions

  • This does look clear cut. Lillestrom are yet to score a 2nd goal in an away match so if scoring first, must be opposed. Rosenborg, though, tend to score first and thus will negate any trading angle into this match.
  • Do not expect a 0-0. Lillestrom have kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • Do not expect a Rosenborg defeat. I doubt they will tolerate 2 consecutive home defeats.

15:00 - Ostersunds v Kalmar - 1.36 Ostersunds

  • Both sides shared a win each in 2016 head to heads but the market has spoken today.
  • This is 9th v 15th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • 3 Ostersunds defeats this season came away from home.
  • At home they have 2 wins and 2 draws and only scored 2 goals once.
  • A run of both teams scoring ended with a 0-0 last match.
  • Kalmar have only 1 win this season.
  • A draw and 3 defeats without scoring is their tally away.

Conclusions

  • Only a few matches played but Kalmar are struggling early season. They have scored only 1 goal in 4 matches and the market has rightly sided with Ostersunds.
  • These short odds teams are becoming good to trade. Elfsborg yesterday a goal down and won 2-1, and Halmstad 2 days ago. So worth keeping an eye on these, particularly when the form matches the market.

16:00 - Sporting Gijon v Real Betis - 2.5 Sporting

  • I think Sporting Gijon are relegated. With a win, yes they are equal on points with Deportivo if Depor lose. There is, though, a 9 goal negative goal difference that Sporting Gijon needs to overcome.
  • Sporting Gijon have 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • 3 defeats and a 1-1 for Betis in their last 4 matches.
  • Neither side have had a 0-0 in their home and away matches so lay any late 0-0.
  • 4 wins and a loss for Gijon at home v 14th and lower.
  • Gijon could pull it off today but I feel that they are relegated despite not being mathematically so.

17:00 - Halmstad v Orebro - 2.32 Halmstad

  • 2 consecutive score draws in head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 13th in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 9 matches. Form is slowly starting to, erm, form.
  • 6 defeats in their last 7 for Halmstad plays 5 defeats in their last 6 for Orebro.
  • Orebro have kept just the one clean sheet to Halmstad's 2.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats for halmstad plays 3 consecutive away defeats for Orebro.
  • Orebro have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches and Halmstad had a run of 5 matches without scoring which ended last match.
  • I think 0-0 might be in play here for a while? At any rate, this is a match to leave alone as these 2 are obviously in poor form but might actually find each other easier opponents?

17:00 - Besiktas v Kasimpasa - 1.19 Besiktas

  • 2 consecutive Kasimpasa 2-1 wins in head to heads. The market does not think that will happen today.
  • This is 1st v 7th in the Turkish Super Lig.
  • 3 matches remain this season and Besiktas have a 2 goal cushion at the top of the league.
  • The title is between 2 teams. A win today really boosts hopes with matches dwindling.
  • Only 3 defeats all season for Besiktas came away from home.
  • They have failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Besiktas are undefeated in 15 home matches, scoring in all of them.
  • They have scored and conceded in 10 of 12 home matches played v top 15 teams.
  • Besiktas have led in 10 of 15 home matches at halftime.
  • Only 2 defeats in 12 matches for Kasimpasa. A recent 1-3 win over Galatasary suggests they can surprise.
  • That win v Galatasary was Kasimpasa's only win away v top 12 sides.
  • 10 of their 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Kasimpasa could throw in a sucker punch here. The key is whether their win against Galatasary was a sign of sustained improvement or a one-off. A look at form says the latter, but they followed that win with a 4-2 win v Rizespor.
  • Given Besiktas tend to score and concede, I would lay besiktas if their lead is only 1-0 for a while or if 2-0 lead, I would look for Kasimpasa to score to give us a trade.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the expectation, that in leading in 10/15 at home, Besiktas have a chance of scoring 1st half.

15:00 - Atvitaberg v Trelleborg - 2.6 Trelleborg

  • 5-2 Trelleborg the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 13th v 6th in the Swedish Superettan.
  • 8 matches into the season and this is the Swedish version of the English Championship and worth researching throughout the summer as there are some familiar names.
  • A glance at the form tells me Trelleborg should be favoured today despite the market being unwilling to take sides.
  • Trelleborg have lost twice away but those defeats came v 2nd and 3rd (yes after only 8 matches but indicative that they are losing to the current form teams).
  • 3 wins and 2 score draws for Trelleborg v teams 7th and lower home and away.
  • Atvitaberg are winning away (2 wins) and have scored and conceded in their 3 matches at home, 2 1-2 defeats and a 1-1.

Conclusions

  • Only 8 matches in but an argument can be made for Atvitaberg scoring and conceding without winning. Trelleborg seem able to draw or beat teams below them in the league.
  • I will therefore lay Atvitaberg if Atvitaberg scores first.

17:00 - Chievo v Roma - 1.27 Roma

  • 3-0 and 3-1 Roma in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 2nd in Italian Seria A.
  • 2 matches remain this season. Chievo have little to gain from 2 wins.
  • Roma need to win their 2 remaining matches and hope Juventus are distracted by the Champions League final in their quest to win the Seria A title.
  • Both teams have scored in Chievo's last 3 matches. Chievo have 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Chievo have had 10 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win for Chievo home and away v top 7 sides.
  • Chievo conceded 17 of their 25 goals 2nd half at home.
  • They scored 15 of their 22 goals at home in the 2nd half.
  • Roma have also scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 8 wins in their last 9 away matches for Roma. They have scored 2-3-3-3-4-4 goals in recent away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 15 matches for Roma.
  • Roma have scored in their last 19 matches.
  • Roma are unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower in the league.
  • Roma conceded 13 of their 17 goals away in the second half.

Conclusions

  • There is plenty for Roma to play for still and on form they should be winning this match.Both teams are scoring in recent matches so if Chievo score first, I would consider backing Roma or a correct score such as 1-2, 1-3.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Sogndal v Brann - 2.14 Brann

  • 1-2 Sogndal in the last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 3rd in the Norwegian Eliteserien.
  • 9 matches into the season and Brann's form looks the better. Their 2 defeats have come away, albeit v 1st and 14th.
  • Sogndal look strong enough at home with wins v 5th and 16th, a 1-1 draw v 13th and a 0-1 loss to 15th.
  • Were this a reverse fixture, Brann at home and Sogndal away, I would confidently side with Brann. Brann's goal scoring at home is superb but away 1-0-2-1 goals.
  • I am afraid I am bowing out of this one. If I cannot read it, I don't need to trade it. Remember at this stage we just want to gain familiarity with the teams.

17:00 - Bromma v Varberg - 1.67 bromma

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 5th after 8 matches in the Swedish Superettan.
  • 100% home record for Bromma scoring 2-4 goals in their 4 wins.
  • A solitary loss came away from home. Bromma have failed to score only once, away to the current 2nd in the league in a 0-0.
  • Bromma are on a pattern of scoring and conceding but outscoring when they concede.
  • They meet a Varberg side 5th because, despite only 1 defeat, they have 4 draws.
  • Varberg's 3 wins this season have come at home. 0-0, 1-1, 0-0 away so 0-0 may be in play today (although don't Bromma have enough firepower so far this season to suggest they can breach Varberg?)

Conclusions

  • We might see a 0-0 for a while here today but I note that Bromma have scored between 2-4 goals in their wins at home and that should put a halt to the 0-0 eventually. I would therefore lay any late 0-0 in this match.
  • Bromma are going through a both teams to score pattern and beating their opponents which suggests that if Varberg lead we can lay Varberg.

17:30 - Salzburg v Admira - 1.26 Salzburg

  • 0-5 Salzburg the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 5th in the Austrian Bundesliga.
  • Salzburg are Champions with 3 matches remaining. So their attitude may be questionable.
  • Only 1 defeat since 30th November came as part of a run of 1 win in 3 matches.
  • 13 wins in 14 matches prior to that. It does suggest a slackening in their intensity.
  • At home Salzburg are unbeaten in 8 matches and actually lost 0-1 to Admira at home the last time admira visited.
  • Amazingly, Admira have wins away v 1st, 2nd and 3rd so we might see an upset with a less-motivated Salzburg side.
  • Only 2 defeats in 14 matches for Admira is solid enough form too to suggest they have some fight in them, albeit little to gain.

Conclusions

  • What a contrarian team Admira are. They get tonked 0-4 and 0-5 at home by Red Bull and then win 0-1 at Red Bull, as part of a run of 100% wins away v the top 3.
  • I could smell a surprise today and would be willing to lay Salzburg if Salzburg lead today. They are Champions regardless of the result and with only 1 win in 3 (where they had 13 wins in 14 prior) this may indicate a slackening off of intensity from Red Bull.

18:00 - Deportivo v Las Palmas - 1.77 Deportivo

  • Deportivo I think are safe from relegation despite not being mathematically so. Their goal difference is superior for Sporting Gijons. Depor would have to lose heavily and Sporting win heavily for Depor to be relegated.
  • A draw will obviously see Depor safe.
  • Only the one win away for Las Palmas all season. Depor are unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league (Depor are 17th and Las Palmas are 14th).
  • I think Depor can get out of this match unscathed if form is upheld.

19:45 - Napoli v Fiorentina - 1.3 Napoli

  • 2 consecutive score draws between these 2 teams in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Napoli can still win the title but need Roma to lose their 2 matches, and Juventus to lose their 2 remaining matches.
  • 2nd place is the realistic goal for Napoli.
  • Fiorentina have 2 matches remaining and nothing to play for.
  • Only 1 loss for Napoli since 5th November 2016.
  • 8 wins in their last 10 matches so great form.
  • Napoli are unbeaten at home v 6th and lower.
  • Napoli have scored 2+ goals in their wins v 6th and lower.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home for Napoli.
  • Napoli have scored 27 of their 40 goals at home in the second half.
  • Fiorentina have conceded 2 goals at least in all of their last 6 matches and in their last 3 away matches.
  • Fiorentina have not beaten a top 11 side away and conceded 2 goals at least in 10 of 11 matches played away v top 13 teams.

Conclusions

  • This looks about right. On form Fiorentina are likely to concede at least 2 goals today and that should secure a Napoli win.
  • Lay Fiorentina if Fiorentina score first.

20:00 - Toulouse v Dijon -2.42 Toulouse

  • 2-0 Dijon the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 16th in the French Ligue 1. All to play for for Dijon who will survive relegation if Caen and Lorient and, well, Bastia lose.
  • A win from Dijon guarantees another season in French Ligue 1.
  • Toulouse have little to play for. Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 10 tells you they are a defensive side.
  • In 14 of their last 15 matches, Toulouse only conceded 2 or more goals in a game once.
  • 1-0-0-1-0 scored by Toulouse in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 2 home defeats for Toulouse v teams 9th and lower.
  • 19 of 28 goals scored by Toulouse at home came 2nd half.
  • Dijon must win.They have 2 wins in 4, albeit at home.
  • Failing to score in 3 of their last 3 matches is not going to help.
  • Failing to win in 7 away does not help either.
  • Dijon have conceded in their last 13 matches away. Given Toulouse are so hard to score 2 goals against, if Dijon concede they need to score 2 to win.
  • Dijon have failed to beat any top 17 team away.

Conclusions

  • Dijon can survive relegation with a little help from their relegation friends.If Bastia do not win, then that books Bastia's relegation. If Lorient draw only, then Dijon are safe via superior positive goal difference.
  • If Caen lose, then Caen remain at least 17th and below Dijon.
  • On form, I am concerned for Dijon. Toulouse are so hard to score that 2nd goal against. Further Dijon are just pants away, no win away v top 17 and conceded last 13 away.
  • I do fear for Dijon - their hope relies on Toulouse failing to score as they have in 3 of their last 4. Toulouse though have failed to score in only 1 of the 8 matches played at home v teams below them.

20:00 - Paris St-G v Caen - 1.22 PSG

  • 2 consecutive 6-0 wins for PSG. Their only enemy may be lack of enthusiasm with Monaco as I write yet to confirm the title. Their vastly superior goal difference should confirm the title. I write before their home match v St Etienne
  • This is an intriguing French Ligue 1 clash as Caen are bang smack in the middle of the relegation scrap which involves Bastia, Lorient, and Dijon.
  • 5 consecutive home wins for PSG. No defeat in 18 at home suggests Caen will have to get the prayer mat out and hope someone does them a favour. Caen are 17th so it is conceivable that they can avoid relegation without a point earned today.
  • PSG have won all home matches v 12th and lower, failing to score 2+ goals only once.
  • All wins home and away for PSG v 16th and lower.
  • PSG have won 5-0 v 18th and 19th and play 17th today who they have beaten 6-0 twice in succession. Yikes!
  • Caen have only 1 win in 10 matches. Their last 4 wins were 1-0. Can they really do that today v PSG?
  • Caen have conceded 2 goals away v 1st, 3rd and 4th.

Conclusions

  • The only thing Caen have on their side is possible PSG dis-interest. But it is the last home game in Paris. PSG are secure in 2nd. If Monaco have lost to St Etienne, PSG know they have 6 goals in them against Caen so might go Roy of the Rovers goal crazy.
  • Caen are unlikely to pull off the miracle win. Their recent wins tend to be 1-0 and it is very hard to envisage them keeping a clean sheet after conceding 12 goals in 2 matches v PSG and PSG scoring 5 v 18th and 19th at home
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • 0-1, 5-0, 6-0, 6-1 possible scorelines today if you want a big odds interest. 5-0 and 6-0 and 6-1 are encompassed within Betfair Exchange's 'any other home score' so I would defer to a bookies with a cash out facility in-play.

20:00 - Lorient v Bordeaux - 2.58 Lorient

  • 5 consecutive Bordeaux wins in head to heads.
  • This is 18th v 6th in French Ligue 1. A draw may suit Lorient dependent on other results. A win would certainly heap the pressure upon Dijon and Caen to win.
  • A flurry of 4 wins in 5 for Lorient now becomes 3 without a win, failing to score in 2 of those matches.
  • This must change!
  • There is hope at home with 2 wins and a draw in their last 3 matches.
  • But with only 4 clean sheets all season it is difficult for Lorient to get consistent wins.
  • Angers drew with a 70th+ minute goal for instance last home match.
  • No 0-0 for Lorient this season.
  • Lorient's positive home results saw an unbeaten record v teams 8th-15th inclusive. That is a positive if they can use that as motivation, albeit against 6th placed here.
  • 18 of Lorient's 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Lorient meet a Bordeaux with little to play for. 3 wins and 3 draws last 6 matches though sees them not declining despite no motivation.
  • Bordeaux are unbeaten home and away v teams 16th and lower. They only have 4 defeats home and away outside of the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Lorient have 2 wins and a draw at home in their last 3 matches. They are unbeaten at home v 8th-15th inclusive.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Bordeaux are the better team with little to play for. Tough to call I'm afraid.

20:00 - Marseille v SC Bastia - 1.31 Marseille

  • 1-2 Marseille the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 5th v 19th in the French Ligue 1.
  • This is simply a must win for Bastia to give themselves a chance of avoiding relegation.
  • There is little to gain for Marseille but the market expects a home win.
  • Marseille are unbeaten in 10 matches, and have won 6 of their last 8 home matches.
  • Marseille have scored in their last 12 home matches.
  • Marseille at home are unbeaten out of the top 2.
  • 3 wins to nil at home v bottom 4 for Marseille.
  • Bastia have won their last 2 home matches but away have only 1 win in 8 away matches.
  • Bastia failed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches.
  • Bastia have conceded in their last 17 away matches.
  • 6 defeats and a 1-1 draw for Bastia away v top 8 sides.
  • 28 of Bastia's 39 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bastia simply must win against a Marseille unbeaten in 10, and winning in 6 of their last 8 at home.
  • I would expect Marseille to score today, having scored in their last 12 at home against a Bastia conceding in their last 17 matches.
  • Bastia concede heavily 2nd half so we might see a period where they are defensively strong first half.
  • Do you have faith in the motivated v the un-motivated today? Their form is poor but then so was Darmstadt's until their 3 consecutive wins  at the end of the season.

20:00 - Sevilla v Osasuna - 1.17 Sevilla

  • This is a dead rubber. Sevilla are 4th and Osasuna are 19th. Osasuna are relegated. Sevilla remain 4th regardless of the result today.
  • The market expects Sevilla to score the 4 goals they scored v Osasuna the last time these 2 teams met.

20:30 - Boavista v Benfica - 1.55 Benfica

  • The first thing to note is that Benfica's odds are higher than they would normally be against such opposition.
  • A 3-3 the last time these 2 met saw Boavista take a 0-3 lead. PLEASE, more of that today!
  • This is 9th v 1st in the Portugeuse Primera Liga.
  • This is the last match of the season and Benfica are Champions, hence the market hesitancy in installing Benfica at their usually short price.
  • Benfica have failed to score only twice. and meet a Boavista with only 1 win at home v 13th and higher.
  • A dead rubber when all said and done. Only 2 defeats all season for Benfica but how will they approach this match?