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English Premier League

20:00 - Brighton v Newcastle - 1.65 Brighton

Brighton - 16th

  • That is quite a vote of confidence in Brighton who scored 2 goals for the first time in 10 matches to secure a 1-2 win away at Southampton. That ended a 3 match losing sequence v Palace, West Ham (form side) and Leicester (top 5).
  • 0-1-0-1-1 goals scored at home. How they would want 2 consecutive matches scoring 2 goals.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, only 3 at fulltime.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 at home v 15th and lower.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.

Newcastle - 17th

  • 2 losses and 3 consecutive draws, 2 1-1 at home and a 0-0 away v West Brom.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win away v 8th and lower.
  • 9/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Brighton's odds are very short which leads me to think there is a Newcastle personnel problem? Brighton scored 2 goals last match for the first time in 10.
  • Back 0-0 pre match given the 0-0's at halftime for both sides? An argument to lay Newcastle if they score first. Brighton, for all their misfiring up front, have been keeping it tight outside of the top 6 sides.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Brighton home matches against bottom-six teams and in 12/15 Newcastle away matches. Newcastle have conceded first in 9/13 away matches.

English FA Cup

12:15 - Bournemouth v Southampton - 1.95 Southampton

  • Leave this to in-play. There is a gap in leagues but these are 2 sides on familiar terms on the South Coast.

17:30 - Everton v Man City - 1.35 Man City

  • Post Champions League for Man City is the only Achilles Heel I see. A congested fixture list?
  • Another Cup match and for me league form is not necessarily transferable. Do note the odds are emphatic here.

English Championship

12:30 - Brentford v Nottingham Forest - 1.75 Brentford

Brentford - 4th

  • More wobbles latest after a 0-2 lead v Derby ended up being 2-2. Recent form Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Win, Loss, Win, Draw. Brentford's usual strong reliable patterns have wobbled.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Win at home recently.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 17th and lower.

Nottm Forest - 18th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Loss away.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 recent matches.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away - 50%.
  • 100% defeats away v the top 8.
  • 10/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Forest's losses v the top 8 will give Brentford hope but Brentford are unreliable as shown with a latest 0-2 lead to 2-2 fulltime. Forest do under 2.5 goals matches. If that continues, and Brentford win, it could be 1-0, 2-0. Forest have failed to score in 3/4 matches. We need to tread warily with Brentford. The stats will reveal if they are trustworthy.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 17/20 Nottm Forest away matches and they have drawn the first half in 12/20 away matches. Brentford have scored first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Barnsley v Sheffield Wed - 1.73 Barnsley

Barnsley - 5th

  • Expected to beat bottom side Wycombe and were emphatic 1-3 mid week.
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 last 10 matches.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only 2 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.

Sheffield Wed - 23rd

  • 7 losses and a 1-1. 1-1 v another Yorkshire side. Will the Derbyish factor play a part here?
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 8 and last 15 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away and none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • 22/32 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A derby element to this might see some improvement from Sheff Wed as per their 1-1 v Huddersfield but there is no getting away from the fact that they have not beaten a top 6 side and play a Barnsley is a rich vein of form.
  • Both sides have relatively high 0-0 at halftime but I would not expect that 2nd half.
  • 1st goal: Barnsley have scored first in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sheffield Wed have lost 9/11 away matches. Sheffield Wed have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

15:00 - Bristol City v Rotherham - 2.40 Bristol City

  • A tough league and 2.4 the favourite, so leave this to the in-play stats.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/13 Bristol City home matches and in 9/16 Rotherham away matches. Rotherham have lost 4/7 away matches against middle-third teams.

15:00 - Coventry v Wycombe - 1.80 Coventry

Coventry - 20th

  • Can Coventry take points off bottom of the league?
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 5 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten at home v 19th and lower.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.

Wycombe - 24th

  • 5 losses and a win last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats without scoring.
  • Failed to score last 4 away.
  • 9 1-0 defeats at halftime away.
  • 1-1 v 19th and 1-2 win v 21st away.

Conclusions

  • Wycombe may improve against fellow strugglers as see with a 1-1 away v 19th and 1-2 win away v 21st. Recent form is poor away, failing to score is a concern. For me both sides improve v fellow strugglers so I cannot discount Wycombe. Do note if Rotherham have a 0-0 at halftime, they tend to have it at fulltime so think again about laying 0-0 2nd half.
  • 1st half outcome: Coventry have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Coventry home matches. Wycombe W have conceded first in 17/18 away matches.

15:00 - Millwall v Middlesbrough - 2.62 Middlesbrough

  • You know the deal. 2.4+ the favourite in the most competitive league in Europe. No research required!!
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/12 Millwall home matches against top-half teams and in 9/11 Middlesbrough away matches against top-half teams. There have been +1.5 goals in 12/17 Middlesbrough away matches against top-half teams.

15:00 - Norwich v Blackburn - 1.60 Norwich

  • I did hint at this mid week. Blackburn need the SAS back, Shearer and Sutton. Only 1 win in 11 from memory. I won't revisit this on soccerstats as I have a good feel for the teams from midweek. Another failure to score mid week for Blackburn. Norwich should simply keep marching on. At their best, we expect 2 goals at least from Norwich today. They have been as regular as clockwork and look reliable if conceding first.
  • Match outcome: Norwich have won 9/11 home matches while Blackburn have lost 7/10 away matches. Blackburn have lost the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

15:00 - Preston v Luton - 2.37 Preston

Preston - 16th

  • Only 3 wins this 2021.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home, only 2 at fulltime.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • All home wins were to nil so don't expect a comeback or win if they concede.
  • 10/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 12/17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Luton - 14th

  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.
  • 6/8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2.37 presents a lack of confidence. But it is a league of 2 halves for Luton. They are unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. And compound that with only 3 wins for Preston all 2021 and Luton must be tentatively favoured. BUT only 8 goals scored away is a concern. Preston's home win pattern is TO NIL so if Luton splutter, Preston may take advantage. But on seasonal form, we would surely side with Luton.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 14/20 Preston home matches and in 9/10 Luton away matches against bottom-half teams. Luton have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Reading v QPR - 2.10 Reading

Reading - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 came last match.
  • 3 losses and now 2 wins at home.
  • No draw in 18 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Have lost at home to 8th, 10th and 11th.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

QPR - 12th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches away.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away, only 2 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 7.
  • 14/20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Both sides in reasonable recent form.

15:00 - Stoke v Derby - 2.30 Stoke


15:00 - Watford v Birmingham - 1.57 Watford

Watford - 2nd

  • 8 wins and a loss last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 10 at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 13th and lower.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Birmingham - 21st

  • Only 4 wins since 12th December 2020.
  • 11 0-0's at halftime away, 5 at fulltime.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Watford need to keep tabs with Norwich or at least ensure they finish top 2 so win win win from hereonin. Brum have failed to score in 3/4 attempts v the top 3 so are unlikely to land a blow but do remember their 61% 0-0 at halftime away. They may offer resistance.

17:30 - Swansea v Cardiff - 2.60 Swansea

  • In-play stats and game notes only here.

English League 1

15:00 - Accrington v Wigan - 2.00 Accrington

  • 1st half outcome: Accrington S have drawn the first half in 10/15 home matches as have Wigan in 10/15 away matches. Wigan have scored first in 4/7 away matches against middle-third teams.

15:00 - Burton v MK Dons - 2.50 MK Dons

  • 1st half outcome: Burton have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches against middle-third teams as have MK Dons in 10/14 away matches against bottom-half teams. MK Dons have lost 7/11 away matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Fleetwood v Swindon - 1.80 Fleetwood

  • Match outcome: Swindon have lost 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 4/8 such matches. Fleetwood have won the first half in 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Gillingham v Doncaster - 2.50 Gillingham

  • 1st half outcome: Gillingham have lost the first half in 10/15 home matches against top-six teams while Doncaster have scored first in 10/19 away matches. Gillingham have lost 10/15 home matches against top-six teams.

15:00 - Northampton v Crewe - 2.50 Crewe

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 5/7 Northampton home matches against bottom-half teams and in 10/17 Crewe away matches. There have been -1.5 goals in 4/7 Northampton home matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Oxford Utd v Blackpool - 2.60 Oxford

  • Match outcome: Oxford have won 11/15 home matches against middle-third teams and they have scored first in 12/19 home matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Blackpool away matches.

15:00 - Plymouth v Bristol Rovers - 2.30 Plymouth

  • 1st goal: Plymouth have scored first in 12/16 home matches while Bristol Rovers have lost 8/10 away matches. Plymouth have won the first half in 10/16 home matches.

15:00 - Portsmouth v Ipswich - 2.10 Portsmouth

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Portsmouth home matches against top-half teams while Ipswich have drawn the first half in 9/13 away matches against top-half teams. Portsmouth have drawn the first half in 8/13 home matches against top-half teams.

15:00 - Rochdale v Peterborough - 1.80 Peterborough

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/18 Peterborough away matches and they have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Rochdale have conceded first in 13/15 home matches.

15:00 - Shrewsbury v Hull - 1.85 Hull

  • 1st goal: Shrewsbury have conceded first in 6/10 home matches against top-six teams and they have lost the first half in 5/10 such matches. Hull City have won by two or more goals in 10/18 away matches.

15:00 - Sunderland v Lincoln - 1.91 Sunderland

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Sunderland home matches against top-six teams and in 5/7 Lincoln away matches against top-six teams. There have been -1.5 goals in 4/7 Lincoln away matches against top-six teams.

15:00 - Wimbledon v Charlton - 2.20 Charlton

  • 1st half outcome: AFC Wimbledon have drawn the first half in 8/11 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 15/18 Charlton away matches. Charlton have drawn the first half in 3/5 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Scottish Premiership

15:00 - Dundee Utd v Aberdeen - 2.05 Aberdeen

  • Last match of the season and nothing to gain from a win for either side.

15:00 - Hamilton v St Mirren - 2.20 St Mirren

  • Hamilton would like 3 points to avoid finishing bottom. St Mirren too would like 3 points to retain a top 6 spot.
  • Only 2 losses in 7 for Hamilton did come away but their problem? 4 of those matches were draws.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
  • 4 draws, a win and a loss for St Mirren is reminiscent of Hamilton's form.
  • 0-1 St Mirren win and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v Motherwell - 2.50 Kilmarnock

  • Leave this alone. 2.5 the favourite and the last match of the season.

15:00 - Livingston v Hibernian - 2.30 Hibernian

  • These 2 will remain 5th and 3rd respectively regardless of the result today.

15:00 - St Johnstone v Ross County - 1.70 St Johnstone

  • An emphatic Hamilton win (unlikely) may see them take 3rd bottom place from Ross County so I'd expect Ross to remain competitive here.
  • A chance for St Johnstone to end the season in the top 6 with a win today. 1-1 and 0-1 win for Ross v St J this season is interesting.
  • St J are unbeaten away v 10th and lower.
  • Only 2 losses in 12 for St J came v the Old Firm and that is excellent form Ross County are going to have trouble reversing.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Eibar - 1.80 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao - 10th

  • Only 3 losses in 11 came v Barcelona twice and Atl Madrid.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 3 wins at home v 15th and lower.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 12 goals scored at home last 30 mins of matches.

Eibar - 19th

  • No win in 10.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away.
  • No win in 10 and in 8 away.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 8 away.
  • 3 away wins v 4th, 6th, 16th.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Ath Bilbao are looking good recently and I will favour them. It has taken a big side to beat them recently.

15:15 - Celta Vigo v Real Madrid - 1.83 Real Madrid

Celta Vigo - 11th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 but only 1 loss in 8.
  • Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Draw, Draw at home. Good stuff.
  • 100% defeats at home v the top 7.

Real Madrid - 3rd

  • Post Champions League.
  • Only 1 loss since 5th Dec.
  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 and in 9 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v top 11.
  • 2-0 win last head to head.

Conclusions

  • We have to favour Real Madrid if no Champions League hangover. Celta's recent form is good at home but in context, they lose at home v the top 7 and consistently so.

17:30 - Huesca v Osasuna - 2.60 Huesca

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

20:00 - Valladolid v Sevilla - 1.91 Sevilla

Valladolid - 16th

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches came last home match.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss, Win at home.
  • Conceded last 13 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Not beaten the top 7 home or away.

Sevilla - 4th

  • 8 wins and 2 losses last 10 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss away recently.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • No draw in 12 and in 5 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Only 2 defeats home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Valladolid have not beaten the top 7 home or away and I cannot see that pattern ending today. Sevilla have a predominantly win record v 11th and lower.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Stuttgart - 1.22 Bayern

Bayern Munich - 1st

  • Only 3 defeats all season.
  • Post Champions League.
  • 5-4-3 goals scored last 3 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 8 at home.
  • No defeat 12 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.

Stuttgart - 8th

  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5.
  • 3 wins last 4.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, draw away recently.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • Some post Champions League sides have slipped up, maybe down to fixture congestion. That is the excuse for a Bayern Loss today. Bayern have been scoring 3 + goals or late and that should be enough to compensate if Stuttgart score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Bayern.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Union Berlin - 1.83 Frankfurt

  • No indepth research here as we have ultra recent patterns for both sides. With Frankfurt, we used to rely on their scoring 2 goals at least, as they did in 11 consecutive matches. 2-1 loss, and 2 1-1 draws most recently though sees that 2 goal pattern not trustworthy any more.
  • They play a Union Berlin side who went 9 matches without scoring that 2nd goal but then conjured up 2 goals in their last home match 2-1 win v Koln.
  • 0-1-0-1-0 goals scored by Union Berlin away though is a concern for them still.
  • Angles? So, we have changing patterns for both sides leaving behind strong embedded goals patterns. Will these teams revert to new patterns (one goal max for Frank, 2 goals for UB) or will their previous strong patterns resurrect today?
  • Other strong sequences? Frank unbeaten in 12 at home, scoring in their last 20 matches.

14:30 - Koln v Dortmund - 1.44 Dortmund

Koln - 14th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 9 matches.
  • 1-2 win last head to head was the only win home and away v the top 9.
  • Not beaten top 13 at home.

Dortmund - 5th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches were to nil.
  • 4 losses and a win away recently.
  • Scored in their last 23 and last 12 away.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • 18/25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It shouldn't be a Koln double. They have not beaten the top 13 at home. Dortmund are scoring 2 goals regularly and that is a solid foundation.
  • Do remember that Dortmund 2nd half scoring pattern.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg - 1.95 Wolfsburg

Werder Bremen - 12th

  • Have shown an ability to shock with a win v what was a rock solid Frankfurt lately. Wolf are in the same camp as Frank. Having an excellent season and a rock solid profile.
  • Only 3 defeats in 11 v Mgladbach away, Hoff away and Bayern Munich at home.
  • Did beat 4th placed Frankfurt at home but that does remain the only win home and away v any team above them in the league.
  • 5-3 loss last head to head.
  • 9/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Wolfsburg - 3rd

  • 7 wins in 9 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • 8 clean sheets last 9 matches.
  • Scored last 6 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Werder are sporadic 2nd goal scorers at home and play a Wolf side keeping clean sheets so I think it will be difficult for Werder to duplicate their 2-1 win v an equally solid Frankfurt. With 7 wins in 9, Wolf have the more consistent recent form.
  • Good recent form for Werder but the fact remains that they have just 1 win home and away v teams above them in the league.

17:30 - Schalke v M'gladbach - 1.44 Mgladbach

  • Everyone's favourite side to take 3 points from! No indepth research here other than to expect another woeful performance from Schalke. Anything else will afford us a trading opportunity.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Crotone v Bologna - 2.10 Bologna

Crotone - 20th

  • 8 losses and a win last 9 matches.
  • Conceded last 15 and last 13 at home.
  • No draw in 15 and in 11 at home, mostly because they are busy losing.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • Not beaten a top 14 side.

Bologna - 12th

  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss away from home recently.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 2.

Conclusions

  • Bologna have a 100% record v the bottom 2. Crotone have not beaten a top 14 side. It seems obvious doesn't it despite the poor away form recently for Bologna?

17:00 - Spezia v Cagliari - 2.70 Cagliari

  • A market not willing to hazard a guess here. We should take the hint with 2.7 the favourite matches. In-play stats or not at all.

19:45 - Inter Milan v Sassuolo - 1.28 Inter

Inter - 1st

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime saw all wins 2nd half.
  • 8 consecutive wins, 10 at home.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 13 at home.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.
  • 19 goals scored last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Sassuolo - 8th

  • Only 2 wins in 11.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 16 and last 9 away.
  • 4/4 defeats v top 4.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo were leading Torino 0-2 at halftime but ended losing 3-2. That does not augur well if they lead Inter today. This Inter side are lethal and will expect the win.
  • Inter score a lot last 1/2 hour so remember that should they enter the 60th minute needing a goal or two.

French Ligue 1

12:00 - Metz v Rennes - 2.37 Rennes

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Metz home matches against top-half teams and in 14/20 Rennes away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 14/20 Rennes away matches against top-half teams.

16:00 - Lille v Nimes - 1.33 Lille

  • Match outcome: Lille have won 11/17 home matches while Nimes have lost 13/20 away matches. Nimes have drawn the first half in 10/13 away matches against top-six teams.

16:00 - Nice v Marseille - 2.45 Marseille

  • 1st half outcome: Nice have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while Marseille have drawn 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Marseille have scored first in 9/14 away matches.

Dutch Eredivisie

15:30 - Fortuna Sittard v Utrecht - 1.75 Utrecht

Fortuna Sittard - 10th

  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 13 and in 9 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home. No 0-0 at fulltime.
  • No win home or away v the top 8.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Utrecht - 7th

  • 2 losses last 3 matches came at home.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • No draw in 5 and in 6 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 away.
  • 12/17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Fortuna Sittard have goals in them and that tends to register with improved in-play stats so look out for that. They are yet to beat the top 8 so that is a hurdle they must overcome.
  • Utrecht have 3 consecutive away wins so that is momentum. They do have 2nd half goals in them if they have not scored first half.

19:00 - Feyenoord v Emmen - 1.30 Feyenoord

Feyenoord - 5th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 5 wins and a 2-3 loss last 6 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 100% wins v 15th and lower.

Emmen - 18th

  • 2 wins and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • 0-1, 1-1 last 2 away is a rarity as is 4 matches unbeaten.
  • 100% defeats v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord had better not be complacent today. Seasonal form sees 100% defeats for Emmen, what with Feyenoord scoring 2+ goals at home lately as well, but Emmen beat Utrecht 0-1 recently, and are on an unprecedented 4 match unbeaten run. They have only scored 1 goal last 3 matches though, Emmen, so may be layable if leading. 2 match 1-1 sequence.

20:00 - RKC Waalwijk v Groningen - 2.37 Groningen

  • Too near to 2.4 the favourite to warrant my research.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

15:30 - Pacos Ferreira v Moreirense - 1.85 Pacos

  • Match outcome: P. Ferreira have won 6/8 home matches against top half non-Big Three teams while Moreirense have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. P. Ferreira have scored first in 6/8 home matches against top half non-Big Three teams.

15:30 - Santa Clara v Tondela - 1.80 Santa Clara

  • 2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Santa Clara home matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 12/16 such matches. Tondela have conceded first in 10/11 away matches.

18:00 - Portimonense v Porto - 1.40 Porto

Portimonense - 12th

  • Only 4 wins since 5th December 2020.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Win at home recently bears some respect.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Porto - 2nd

  • Unbeaten since 8th November 2020.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws away recently.
  • 2 goals scored in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • No defeat in 17.
  • Unbeaten away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Porto look well placed here against a Portimonense winning infrequently despite good recent home form. Portimonense are yet to beat the top 9. Porto are trying to keep tabs on unbeaten Sporting Lisbon. Porto are 17 unbeaten and expected to make that 18 today.

20:30 - Sporting Lisbon v Guimaraes - 1.5 Sporting

  • Just a quick note here. Sporting Lisbon remain unbeaten.
  • Clean sheets in 9 of their last 12 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins, scored last 11 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 matches.
  • 0-4 win v Guimaraes earlier this season.
  • Guimaraes are yet to beat the top 4 home or away.
  • Angles? You are either with a continuing unbeaten run or you think it will end particularly v a top 10 side. I am with the former.