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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 20, 2015

Review of yesterday's matches.

Odd v Start , my main angle in was to lay the 0-0 halftime score which came in easily. 3-1 at halftime. The final score was 3-3. I did not lay Odd though as I thought Start were the vulnerable team. Ecuador were 2-0 up, final result 2-1. If you were lucky enough to enter the market at 2-0 Ecuador, then you'd have had a successful trade as Mexico scored next. As I recounted, the 2.37 odds gave the game away. This was a match too tight to call. 5-0 to Chile and that boy Sanchez scored. He was certainly due a goal. Artur "Daley" Vidal did not score any of the 5 goals.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

2pm - B93 v BSV - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Danish 2nd Division east. Yes, a league I, erm, know loads about.
  • 1-3 B93, 1-2 BSV, 0-0 last 3 head to heads muddies the waters.
  • This is 8th v 14th

B93

  • This looks like the last match of the season. And it looks like a dead rubber. Neither side benefits from 3 points.
  • No defeat in 5 at home
  • Scored in their last 6 at home
  • 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 3 losses in 11 matches, came away.
  • Both teams have scored in 71% of home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home

BSV

  • No win in 15 matches. No win in 7 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 14 away matches and last 8 overall.
  • 6 match losing streak.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3-0-8-1-3-4-4-4-4-2 conceded recently.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads are inconclusive. BSV though are in free-fall.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Expect B93 to score between 2-4 goals so lay BSV if they score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score on the basis that goals are expected.
  • Do remember this is a dead rubber.
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14:30 UK Sandefjord v Lillestrom - 2.15 away

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads recently
  • This is 16th (bottom) v 7th in the Norwegian Eliteserien

Sandefjord

  • 9 consecutive defeats.
  • 12 matches without a draw.
  • 1-1-1-0-0 scored in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet

Lillestrom

  • No draw in 4 away matches and in 6 overall.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 losses this season
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 of the 3 defeats have come v the current top 2.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both sides have only kept 1 clean sheet this season. Both teams to score seems logical doesn't it? I am not sure about William Hill's odds (which I have to use as I research these matches before Betfair publishes its inplay coupons). I would favour Lillestrom today. If Sandefjord score first, lay them. They have rarely scored more than 1 goal in home matches.
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17:00 UK Molde v Valerenga - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 Molde wins and a 2-3 Valeranga win in the last 6 head to heads. 3 consecutive Molde clean sheet wins.
  • This is 4th v 3rd in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Molde

  • Only 4 losses this season. 3 of the losses came away from home and they did lose their last match.
  • Solid goal-scorers at home, scoring 1-5-3-4-3-6
  • 3-3-6-0- scored in their last 4 matches.
  • All over 2.5 goals matches bar 2 this season.
  • All bar 2 matches saw goals before halftime.
  • No win v current top 7 sees 3 losses and a draw. Valeranga are 3rd.
  • Scored 11 goals in each half.
  • Has led at halftime in 5 of their 6 home matches.

Valeranga

  • 3 match winning streak away
  • Scored in their last 5 matches overall and last 6 away.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Only recently lost to Rosenborg.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 matches this season. Recent scorelines? 4-5 win, 4-2 win, 0-3 win, 3-4 win , 1-2 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • As with Molde , only 2 matches without at least a goal before halftime.
  • Undefeated away.
  • Lost at home v 1st and 2nd.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Valeranga have some serious goals potential. They have lost to 1st and 2nd at home and play 4th today. Molde though are struggling v top 7 with 3 losses and a draw. Will they struggle v a team they usually beat?
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score here for sure based on the stats. That's probably the strongest angle here. An argument can be made for both sides. Molde have won the last 3 head to heads to nil but I think Valeranga's recent scoring could inspire them today.
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7:45pm - Germany U21 v Denmark U21  - 1.87 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • This is being played in Prague so no home advantage.
  • Germany are unbeaten in 12 UEFA matches. 3 draws and 4 wins in the last 7 matches.
  • 7 of their last 8 wins were to nil, but the draws were score draws.
  • Denmark are unbeaten in their last 13 UEFA matches. Some of the teams they beat are weak  - Andorra ( twice), Estonia( twice), Bulgaria ( twice).
  • The Danes drew with Iceland twice in their last 3 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would have to favour Germany u21 today and lay the Danes if they score first. The Germans' form looks better.
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20:00 UK Uruguay v Paraguay - 2 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads, albeit from 2013
  • Uruguay beat Jamaica 1-0 and lost 1-0 to Argentina. Are they missing Suarez?
  • Paraguay drew 2-2 with Argentina after being 2-0 down.
  • They beat Paraguay 1-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would back 1-1 pre-match here. There may be a chink in Paraguay's armour though. Argentina were 2-0 up until 2 very very late Paraguay goals. I would favour Uruguay today. I would lay Paraguay if they scored first.
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22:30 UK Argentina v Jamaica - 1.05 home

Standout Stats

  • Don't under-estimate this Jamaica side in this Copa America. 2 1-0 losses v Paraguay and Uruguay suggests a highly defensive set up.
  • Argentina blew a 2-0 lead against Paraguay and a 1-0 win v Uruguay.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The market suggests Argentina score 5+ goals today and win to nil. I would advocate laying Argentina at 1.05 as a throwaway late. They are highly likely to win, but if Jamaica can keep Uruguay to 0-0 at halftime, they could conceivably cause some problems to Argentina.
  • If you are not a layer, 1.05 suggests goals before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can.
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