Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

As you can imagine, the usual 15:00 mayhem of a Saturday has dissipated. It makes a live chat webinar difficult to do. I can do a live chat webinar from 15:00 to 17:00 if you would like to capture the 15:00 kick offs. I can discuss some French Open tennis and do a review of the results from Day 1. It will be an excellent exercise in honing your tennis trading skills. https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/9093683940044278028 is the link.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

20:00 - Tottenham v Liverpool - 1.97 Liverpool

  • Liverpool have scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 head to heads with Spurs. The last 2 results were 2-1.
  • That's the only real angle in this Champions League Final. We did see in the all-English Europa League final a 0-0 at halftime. Will we see that here? Note in the 2-1 recent wins, Liverpool did score before halftime. Good luck if you can find an angle.
  • Both teams have scored in 7/8 head to heads.
  • Liverpool have consistently been scoring before halftime in the Champions League.

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION

18:00 - Alcorcon v Gimnastic - 1.95 Alcorcon

  • 2 matches remain. I thought I would check but this looks a dead rubber to me, with neither side really benefitting if winning their remaining 2 matches.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

15:00 - Sirius v Djurgardens - 1.76 Djurgardens

Sirius

  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 at home though.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • All defeats v the top 7 - 2 goals conceded in all bar one of those matches.

Conclusions

  • I stop the research abruptly. Early season the Challenge Table is shaping up. It shows Sirius losing, conceding 2+ goals v the top 7 and they play 3rd today.
  • We see Djurgardens unbeaten v 7th and lower home and away, and they play 9th today.
  • It should point to Djurgardens not losing here.

15:00 - IFK Goteborg v Orebro - 1.51 IFK

IFK (2nd)

  • Good season so far for IFK.
  • All wins bar 2 away losses first 2 away matches of season.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's is a sequence I am keen to see ending.
  • No defeat in 5 at home and 8 overall.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Not conceded a first half goal yet this season at home.

Orebro (12th)

  • 2 consecutive away wins, conceding in each.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • Not played top 6 away.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • There is a gap in form here, Orebro not meeting top 6 away which may cloud the form and leave the market guessing really. There is nothing to show how Orebro, away, have performed v the top 5.
  • I would be keen to see that IFK 0-0 home sequence end.
  • With Orebro conceding last 11 matches, it is a possibility.

17:00 - Ostersunds FK v Sundsvall - 2.1 Ostersunds

Ostersunds (10th)

  • 2 draws and 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 3+ goals conceded last 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 wins v 13th and lower. 3 goals scored in the 2 home wins.
  • Scored and conceded 4/5 at home.

Sundsvall (14th)

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 12 matches and last 7 away.
  • All defeats v 7th-12th inclusive home and away.

Conclusions

  • Ostersunds are in poor form but contextually, have beaten 2 teams 13th and lower, scoring 3+ goals.
  • Sundsvall are yet to win away and have lost to all teams 7th-12th home and away.
  • I have seen stronger favourites than this home favourite! They are scoring at home.

17:00 - Falkenbergs v Kalmar FF - 2.2 Kalmar FF

Falkenbergs (16th)

  • Sole win first match.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in last 2 at home.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal at home.

Kalmar (11th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2 1-0 away defeats in a row.
  • Scored 2 goals away only once.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • 1-0 home win v 13th and 1-2 away win v 14th - the only wins this season.

Conclusions

  • 2 not very good teams but Kalmar's 2 wins have, coincidentally, come v 13th and lower and they play 16th today. Can you trust this lot? Scored 2 goals only once away. Falkenberg yet to score that 2nd so if they score first, lay them.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

12:35 - Beijing Renhe v Tianjin Quanjian - 2.32 Beijing

Beijing (15th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home, 2-1,one last home match.
  • 2-2-1-2 goals scored at home recently.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played bottom 4 at home yet.

Tianjin (16th)

  • Bottom of the league.
  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 5 matches.
  • Did beat 13th 2-3 away and play 15th today.

Conclusions

  • I don't know about you but it would take a leap of faith to trust 2nd bottom v bottom of the league.
  • Let's pretend that we can trust the form. Well, Beijing have conceded in every match but are scoring 2 goals regularly (3/4 home matches) and that may help their cause if Tianjin scores first, a Tianjin conceding 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.

12:35 - Shanghai Shenhua v Chongqing Lifan - 1.9 Shanghai

Shanghai (13)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only first and last matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Chongquing (6)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • All 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market albeit is the sample of matches enough to be confident.
  • On seasonal form, Chongquing are favoured not to lose. Shanghai have conceded in their last 11 matches.

12:35 - Wuhan Zall v Shenzhen FC - 2 Wuhan

Wuhan (11th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches in a season of only 3 wins.
  • Inconsistent at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • All defeats this season have come v the top 5.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Shenzhen (12th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • No win away.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Conceded in the last 11 matches.
  • All defeats have come v the top 9.
  • All 3 wins came at home v 13th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It is a little too early in the season I think.
  • The Wuhan Clan are inconsistent at home which further clouds this match. But the Challenge Table reveals that Wuhan have lost so far to top 5 teams only.
  • Shenzhen have lost exclusively to the top 9 this season and have no away win. So if these patterns continue, Wuhan should remain unbeaten today.
  • Both sides don't tend to keep clean sheets.

12:35 - Shandong Luneng v Jiangsu Suning - 1.9 Shandong

Shandong (4th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 7 at home.

Jiangsu (5th)

  • All 4 defeats came away.
  • Both teams have scored in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Both teams scored in all bar 1 match v the top 11.
  • 2+ goals conceded away in all bar 1 match.

Conclusions

  • If Jiangsu continue to concede 2 goals away from home, then they will be vulnerable to a side in Shandong failing to score only once and scoring in their last 6 matches. I would therefore look to lay Jiangsu if Jiangsu scored first.

12:35 - Guangzhou R&F v Hebei CFFC - 1.9 Guangzhou

Guangzhou (8th)

  • 4 wins all season came within the last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches all season.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored at home in the last 4 matches.
  • All wins have come v 12th and lower, conceding in each win.

Hebei (14th)

  • Only 2 wins. Did win last match 3-2.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded 2 + goals in each of the last 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded in 7/8 matches home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Hebei have a poor record for conceding 2 goals consistently v 12th and lower. That suggests laying them if they score first against a Guangzhou who have consistently beaten all teams 12th and lower this season. We may see both teams score with a suggestion Guangzhou not to lose.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

15:00 - Halmstads v Vasteras SK - 1.6 Halmstads

Halmstads (12th)

  • Only home win came last match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten 7th, 9th, 14th and 15th at home.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Vasteras (11th)

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • No defeat in 3 away.
  • All defeats have come v the top 3.
  • 4/5 clean sheets v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • As football trader Toyah Wilcox remarked 'it's a mystery' why Halmstads are such sure favourites with the market makers. Were you to read the bare form, you'd conclude that Vasteras with 4/5 clean sheets v 9th and lower, no defeat in 3 away and only losing to the current top 3, look solid material here.
  • Halmstads sole home win came last home match. Strong first half scoring and conceding suggests laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I must respect the market as it must have some insider info but on form, I give Vasteras a good chance.

15:00 - Mjallby v Jonkopings Sodra - 2.36 Sodra

  • A cursory look at the Challenge Table and recent matches for this one. Early in the season; secondary league; 2.36 the favourite puts me off.
  • 2nd v 4th here so the market expects a tight clash of 2 of the inform sides early season.
  • 6 consecutive Mjallby wins. 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failing to score only once.
  • Noticeable though, 2nd placed Mjallby have lost to 1st and 3rd (away). Will they struggle v fellow big hitters?
  • 3 consecutive wins Sodra. 2 away wins v 3rd and 16th.
  • As muddling as the odds suggest. Leave this to the in-play stats or do not play at all. One angle? Mjallby failed to score only first match of the season

15:00 - Norrby IF v Dalkurd FF - 2.18 Norrby

Norrby (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 wins recently.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Not played 5th-12th at home yet this season.

Dalkurd (8th)

  • 2 losses then 2 wins recently.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches with 3 wins out of those 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet first match of the season.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st, 4th and 10th with the win v 6th.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Big gap in form for Norrby, who are yet to play 5th-12th at home. That messes up any form reading.
  • If Dalkurd have not conceded first half, they are more likely to concede 2nd half.
  • Norrby may be tough to score against recently. Can we rely on that? Lay Dalkurd if Dalkurd scores first?

15:00 - Degerfors v IK Frej - 1.83 Degerfors

Degerfors (6th)

  • A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • A reputation as an unreliable side.
  • 2 wins v 4th and 5th at home. Losses v 8th and 9th at home.
  • 4 of 5 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Frej

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • No angles here at all and featuring a totally unreliable side in Degerfors. Choose your battles.