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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 1, 2023

DRT review/preview video at DRT Facebook along with Deep Dives and Raw Stats. Live chat webinar today - details below:

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Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 1st April 2023

Time: Apr 1, 2023 02:30 PM London

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English Premier League

12:30 - Man City v Liverpool - 1.57 Man City

  • Derby style match. Both teams will have been influenced by the International Break and Liverpool are also post-Champions League. Rumours abound that old Sparkly Teeth might be sacked. I did mention this after the 3 consecutive 3 goal away defeats. It will be doubly compounded by the early exit from the Champions League.
  • I won't research these types of high-profile matches.

15:00 - Arsenal v Leeds - 1.28 Arsenal

Arsenal - 1st

  • 6 consecutive wins after failing to win in 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3+ goals scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored last 8 and last 6 at home.
  • Only home loss v 2nd.
  • 0-1 win last head-to-head.
  • 71% over 3.5 goals at home.
  • 25/38 goals scored at home 2nd half.

Leeds United - 14th

  • Win, Loss, Draw, Win under new manager, starting with a 1-0 win, 1-0 loss then scoring 2 goals in a 2-2 home draw v Brighton and 2-4 away win v Wolves.
  • And that's it under new manager.

Conclusions

  • Caution with the new Leeds manager getting a tune out of Leeds, particularly scoring 2 goals+ last 2 matches. So any shock result will have this as its base. If Leeds take a 0-2 lead, lay them - Arsenal have twice won from 2-0 down. Keep trust in the Arse at home.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring for Arsenal should get them out of any trouble.

15:00 - Bournemouth v Fulham - 2.50 Bournemouth

  • 2.5 the favourite and new manager syndrome Bournemouth suggests we leave this to the in-play stats.

15:00 - Brighton v Brentford - 1.65 Brighton

Brighton - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches came v Fulham.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 9 came v Liverpool on that poor away run for Liverpool.
  • 2-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • 11 goals scored at home last 30 mins.

Brentford - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 15 matches came away v Everton.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 17 saw 5 draws, 3 losses and a win.

Conclusions

  • Both finds find it hard to...lose of late. Slight alarm with Brentford's away form, only 1 away win v the top 17 - advantage the Seagulls on that basis? But then they have only 1 win v the top 9 and that took advantage of a poor Liverpool away run.

15:00 - Crystal Palace v Leicester - 2.60 Palace

  • Leave this to the inplay stats along with the Forest v Wolves match. Do remember Forest have just come off the back of a 9-match unbeaten home run, ended v Newcastle United. Forest have scored in their last 12 matches at home.
  • Wolves are yet to beat any top 14 side away. New manager syndrome for them too and a Wolves finding goals tough (despite 2 in defeat v Leeds latest).

15:00 - Nottingham Forest v Wolves - 2.50 Wolves

17:30 - Chelsea v Aston Villa - 1.61 Chelsea

  • A touch of new manager syndrome about both teams.
  • After a frustrating period, Potter's Chelsea have got going with a win v Dortmund, 2 in the Premier League v Leicester and Leeds and a 2-2 draw v newly managed Everton.
  • That latter result reminds you that new manager syndrome matches can see surprises.
  • Quite simply, it's taken a solid side to beat Villa - Liverpool - Leicester (the exception!) - Man City - Arsenal. Win, Win, Draw, Win latest - 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Angles? I am not quite with a 1.61 quote. In all defeats, v generally big names, Villa did score. If Chelsea score today Villa may score today. The Chelsea wins v Leeds and Leicester are not quite the earth-shattering form a 1.61 quote may suggest. Possibility of laying Chelsea if Chelsea score first.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Freiburg v Hertha Berlin - 1.70 Freiburg

Freiburg - 4th

  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 and in 11 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 2-2 last head-to-head.
  • All wins at home v 11th and lower.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home 2nd half.

Hertha Berlin - 16th

  • 8 consecutive away defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
  • 5/5 defeats conceding 3+ goals away v the top 8.
  • 9/11 goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Freiburg should eye the win here, scoring 2+ goals. I would lay any Hertha lead. Both teams to score has come in the last 5 home matches for Freiburg.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Mainz - 1.50 Leipzig

Leipzig - 5th

  • Only 3 losses since 1st October, 2 came away.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 12 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 8/12 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 4th and lower. All wins bar a 2-2.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mainz - 9th

  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • Scored last 11.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • All wins bar 2 came v teams 10th-14th.

Conclusions

  • Mainz have tended to only win v a select band of teams, alas, nowhere near the top 5. Leipzig tend to score 2 goals and win at home v 4th and lower.
  • Both teams to score a possible as these 2 have been scoring in double-figure consecutive matches.

14:30 - Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen - 1.91 Bayer Leverkusen

Schalke - 17th

  • Unbeaten in 8 but 6 draws and 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 2-2-2-1 goals scored recently.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 at home.
  • 4-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 13.

Leverkusen - 8th

  • A draw and 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • Only 1 loss away v 9th and lower and a tendency to score 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • Schalke are going through an excellent unbeaten run - a win will /could take them outside of the bottom 3. A win for Bayer could take them 6th and a European place.
  • Schalke's solid recent form contrasts with only 1 win home and away v the top 13.
  • Both teams to score a possible.

14:30 - Union Berlin v Stuttgart - 2.05 Union Berlin

Union Berlin - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss in 10 came v Bayern Munich.
  • Only 1 win in 5 came last match.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 0-1 win last head-to-head.

Stuttgart - 18th

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away, conceded last 10 away.
  • Not beaten a top-11 side.

Conclusions

  • No doubting this Union home form. A win for Union will keep them in the title hunt. They may have a chance if the Stuttgart no win in 12 away turns up. They do score and concede but have yet to beat a top-11 side.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Augsburg - 1.61 Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg - 7th

  • Only 3 defeats since 1st October 2022.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw at home recently.
  • 1-1 last head-to-head.
  • v 6th and lower, only 1 loss in 7 was as 2-4. Both teams scored 2 goals in the 4 home matches v 6th, 10th, 11th, 13th.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Augsburg - 12th

  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Only 3 away wins v 8th, 11th and 17th.

Conclusions

  • Wolfsburg don't tend to lose when conceding 2 goals at home so I will look at that pattern, particularly given Augsburg are in such poor away form.
  • Wolfsburg have late goals in them, 9 goals scored last 15 mins at home.

17:30 - Bayern Munich v Dortmund - 1.50 Bayern Munich

  • A derby-style match if ever there was one. Dortmund remain unbeaten in the Bundesliga in 2023. All wins bar a draw. This is 2nd v 1st - great to watch, maybe not to trade.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Girona v Espanyol - 1.95 Girona

Girona - 12th

  • Loss, Loss, Draw latest.
  • Have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses since 8th October were 0-1 defeats v Barcelona and Real Madrid.
  • No draw in 5 at home; conceded last 6 overall.
  • 5 wins and a 1-1 at home v 13th and lower.
  • 96% conceding rate this season.
  • 12/18 goals conceded at home 2nd half.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.

Espanyol - 17th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of the last 12 matches.
  • Scored last 12 and scored and conceded last 4.
  • Scored last 8 away.
  • Only 3 away wins, 2 were 0-1, v 7th, 13th and 20th.
  • 12/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0/draw.
  • Both teams to score has a chance with Girona conceding last 6 and nearly 100% this season, and Espanyol scoring and conceding in 10/12 recent matches.

15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Getafe - 1.60 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao - 7th

  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss at home recently.
  • Conceded last 4 at home.
  • 2 losses at home outside of the top 3 came v 12th and 17th.
  • 2-2 last head-to-head.
  • 61% of goals came at home first half.

Getafe - 13th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • 3-2 win, 2-2, 2-0 win last 3 matches.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Scored last 7, conceded last 6 away.
  • only 2 away wins v 10th and 20th.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Getafe win infrequently away, so their recent solid 2+ goals unbeaten run of 3 needs that context. Athletic Bilbao have only 2 home losses outside the top 3 so may fancy remaining unbeaten at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Cadiz v Sevilla - 2.37 Sevilla

  • 15th v 14th and a market suggesting caution.
  • These 2 sides are only 2 points above the relegation zone so could be another match to lay any late draw given the need for points.
  • Cadiz are unbeaten in 10 at home. They have scored in their last 7 home matches.
  • Cadiz are unbeaten at home v 8th and lower albeit all score draws at home v 13th and lower.
  • 14/17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • No win in 8 away for Sevilla - 3 losses and a draw latest.
  • Only 2 away wins v 11th and 17th. 1-0 win last head to head, Sevilla are unbeaten at home v 15th and lower and have scored and conceded in all bar 3 away matches.
  • Angles? Cadiz's home form is what is keeping the market from inserting Sevilla as favourite, as is Sevilla's bewildering lack of form this season.

20:00 - Elche v Barcelona - 1.33 Barcelona

Elche - 20th

  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Conceded last 13 at home.
  • 3-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 5.

Barcelona - 1st

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 5 of the last 6 away scorelines were 0-1 or 1-0 (1-0 loss only once).
  • 8 clean sheets last 11 matches.
  • No draw in 11 and in 13 away.
  • 12 goals scored away last 1/2 hour.

Conclusions

  • Bottom v top and points required by both teams.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • If Barca lose, it is likely to be 1-0 so insurance play is a choice if Elche score first.
  • Worrying 0-1 wins for Barca so they may just limp over the line today although Elche tend to lose emphatically to the top 5, home and away.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Cremonese v Atalanta - 1.67 Atalanta

Cremonese - 20th

  • Only 1 win did come at home v Roma.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 13 and last 6 at home.
  • The only time they scored 2 goals at home v the top 12 came in that win v Roma.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atalanta - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.
  • Failed to score last 2 away.
  • Unbeaten v 16th and lower. 2-2, 0-1, 0-2 away v 17th and lower.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Logic suggests a side with only one win is highly unlikely to beat a top 6 side. They do not tend to score that 2nd goal and that could leave them vulnerable. Atalanta are poor though, 3 losses in 4 but they are unbeaten v 16th and lower, and have 2 wins and a draw away v 17th and lower.

17:00 - Inter Milan v Fiorentina - 1.70 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 3rd

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 5 and in 14 at home.
  • 9 wins and a 0-1 loss at home v 8th and lower.
  • 3-4 win last head-to-head.

Fiorentina - 9th

  • A draw and 4 consecutive wins.
  • 2 consecutive away wins to nil.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • A draw and all defeats away v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tester for Inter Milan based on recent form but Fiorentina's Elephant In the Room is a draw and all defeats away v the top 10. No arguing that. Despite 3 defeats in 4, Inter still have 9 wins and a 0-1 loss at home v 8th and lower. It looks clear cut on paper but recent momentum is with the Viola.

19:45 - Juventus v Verona - 1.44 Juventus

Juventus - 7th

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 consecutive home 4-2 wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 home match v 10th and lower.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Verona

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches was a 1-0 home win.
  • No win in 13 away.

Conclusions

  • We expect a home win, with Juventus scoring at least 2 goals today. They are still in with a chance of European Club competition places, despite the big points deduction for doing business with Fat Tony from the Simpsons! Remember no away win for Verona...particularly if they score first!