Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The matches are all scattered today. A live chat webinar works when we have multiple kick offs at 2:30 pm, blending into a full program at 3 pm. We do not have that today. I think 3 pm is a good time for a live chat Twitter @drtclub. Less formal. Still there should be some trades. There is a busy shorties list at the DRT Facebook page. No live chat tomorrow as my Dad arrives for a couple of days and I rarely get to see him.

ENGLISH F.A.CUP FINAL

17:15 - Chelsea v Man Utd - 2.84 Man Utd

  • The F.A. Cup Final is tough to call. I opted for a 2-1 / 1/2 pre match back at odds of 14 in the hope that Chelsea continue to show 2-1 scorelines in their FA Cup Finals.
  • A recent 1-1 at fulltime when Man Utd met Crystal Palace in the Fa Cup Final suggests an ability for opponents to breach United. I will also back 0-0 at 6.8 incase Mourinho parks the bus and looks for a 0-1.

SCOTTISH FA CUP

15:00 - Celtic v Motherwell - 1.31 Celtic

  • Motherwell have managed a couple of draws when Celtic have visited them. At Celtic, Celtic won 5-1.
  • Neutral venue of course.
  • 9 consecutive FA Cup wins for Celtic scoring 2+ goals suggest we side with the market here.
  • Motherwell have won their last 4 FA Cup matches, scoring 2 goals. Notable scalp of Aberdeen last match.
  • Another cup match in which it is hard to get an angle. I would default to Celtic today.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Celta Vigo v Levante - 1.86 Celta Vigo

  • Last match of the season is a dead rubber. Levante are safe from relegation.
  • 8 wins in 10 matches for Levante has secured their safety. Contrast with Celta Vigo with only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Strictly on recent form, we'd side with Levante.
  • Celta Vigo have only 3 losses at home v 2nd, 5th and 10th. Levante are unbeaten away v 14th and lower.
  • Motivation is questionable. Tough to split these 2 as Levante's recent form is so impressive that I cannot discount an 'up for it' Levante today.

15:15 - Leganes v Betis - 2.56 Betis

  • Leganes must be thankful that the bottom 3 were so poor. They survive with plenty of points between them and bottom 3.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches for Betis sees them in excellent form.
  • Only 3 wins in 17 matches for Leganes suggests they are highly likely NOT to win today.
  • Another dead rubber best dealt with via the in-play stats.

17:30 - Las Palmas v Girona - 2.28 Girona

  • This is another dead rubber. Las Palmas are relegated, Girona are safe as houses.
  • 9 losses and 2 draws in 11 matches for Las Palmas.
  • Only 1 win in 9 for Girona suggests both sides are thankful this season has ended.
  • Girona away have only 1 loss v 12th and lower so are slightly favoured despite a lack of motivation.

17:30 - Malaga v Getafe - 2.32 Getafe

  • Relegated v safe in this dead rubber.
  • At the end of the season Getafe have been tough as houses to score against, conceding 1-0-0-0-1-0-3-1-1-0-2-0-1-0-1-0-1 goals recently.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 for Getafe was v Atl Madrid.
  • 3 wins v bottom 2 for Getafe without conceding.
  • Again motivation is the issue here.
  • Malaga have failed to score 2 goals at home v top 9 teams so lay them if they score first.

17:30 - Sevilla v Alaves - 1.45 Sevilla

  • Another dead rubber sees these 2 safe. Sevilla have no European place to play for. Alaves are safe mid table.
  • 2-2-1-3 goals scored by Sevilla recently at home. 2-2-0-2 goals conceded though by Sevilla in those matches.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches for Alaves ensured they were not involved in the relegation battle.
  • 6 losses and a win away for Alaves v the top 8 suggests they will struggle if Sevilla are motivated.9 wins and 2 draws at home for Sevilla v 8th and lower with Alaves in 12th.
  • We should expect Sevilla to win if they are up for it of course v an Alaves who have put together a solid recent run but tend to lose away to the top sides.

19:45 - Villarreal v Real Madrid - 2.18 Real Madrid

  • A possibility for Real Madrid to go 2nd if Atl Madrid lose and Real Madrid win but Real are top 3 guaranteed and are guaranteed Champions League football.
  • Villareal have 5th place to play for.
  • Real Madrid have the small matter of a Champions League Final on the 26th May 2018. With their not really needing a result tonight, and with question marks regarding the fitness of Ronaldo, I think Real Madrid will rest a proportion of the first team, especially the attacking third as they cannot afford any more injuries to the first choice attacking players such as Bale and Benzema.
  • This clouds this match.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home for Villareal sees them beating the likes of Atl Madrid.
  • 2-2 and 3-2 loss last 2 aways for Real Madrid.
  • Real Madrid do tend to score and concede v the top teams. I think this is a good match for us to take on Real Madrid so near to a Champions League Final. I would lay any Real lead, even if they lead 0-2 here today.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Juventus v Verona - 1.11 Juventus

  • Champions v relegated.
  • The World Cup will be the distraction for teams such as Juventus. In a dead rubber, International players will not want to risk an injury today.
  • 100% wins at home v 6th and lower for Juventus.
  • Verona have lost all matches home and away v top 5, and failed to score v top 5 away in defeat.
  • The market expects 3+ goals from Juventus today, and a goal at least before hafltime. We usually lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market for 1.11 shots.
  • Watch out for team news given the World Cup participants might want to sit out.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE PLAY-OFF 2nd LEG

19:45 - Utrecht v Vitesse - 1.9 Utrecht

  • We enter the Championship group stage of the Dutch Eredivisie. For me Utrecht are favoured. Only 1 loss at home during the league proper came v 1st in the league.
  • Utrecht did tend to score and concede v the top 12 at home without losing.
  • I think this is the 2nd leg  as Vitesse have a 3-2 win v Utrecht on 15th May 2018.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches away for Vitesse v the top 7 teams suggests struggles this apparent 2nd leg.
  • I would expect Utrecht not to lose today.
  • You may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the expectation for goals.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:00 - Toulouse v Guingamp - 1.62 Toulouse

  • Toulouse are 3rd bottom. They have a better goal difference than Caen who are 4th bottom. Toulouse must win in case Caen do not win. That is the only way for Toulouse to survive into another season in the French Ligue 1.
  • Guingamp are safe mid table.
  • A draw and 3 consecutive defeats for Toulouse hardly screams 'mortgage job' on them today.
  • 2-2-1 goals scored by Guingamp recently suggests they may spoil the party. 2-2 v Lille and PSG away recently for Guingamp.
  • To add to Toulouse's worries, Guingamp are unbeaten home and away v teams 15th and lower.
  • Toulouse do only have 2 losses at home v 8th and lower. They do have a chance today.
  • Are you with 'needs must' v 'dead rubber?

19:00 - Metz v Bordeaux - 1.5 Bordeaux

  • Metz are relegated. Bordeaux have little to play for but the market are keen on the away side.
  • Only 1 win in 14 matches for Metz.
  • Metz have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets for Metz.
  • Metz did beat 6th and 8th at home and they meet 7th today.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches for Bordeaux is excellent recent form.
  • Bordeaux have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • I think on that recent form, even if conceding, Bordeaux could even win. That is my angle in what I have to remind you is a dead rubber.

19:00 - Caen v Paris St-G - 1.77 PSG

  • Caen ideally need 3 points today, particularly if Toulouse win. The final bottom 3 spot is between these 2 teams.
  • PSG are another team who are chock full of International players prior to the World Cup.
  • 7 losses and 2 draws for Caen recently suggests they are up against it tonight but you never know if PSG field a weakened side.
  • 2 draws and a loss for PSG last 3 matches suggests they are mentally switched off now.
  • A match for inplay stats. Caen need to 'do a West Brom'.

19:00 - Dijon v Angers - 2.32 Dijon

  • Dijon and Angers have done enough to ensure that they are not in the last match relegation fight.
  • Dijon have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches. Angers have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Dijon have scored in their last 15 at home. Faith in them scoring today?
  • Dijon have only 1 loss at home v 5th and lower. Angers though tend to do their winning v 11th and lower.
  • What I would take out of this match? An expectation for Dijon to score.

19:00 - ESTAC Troyes v Monaco - 1.62 Monaco

  • Troyes are relegated. Monaco confirm 2nd place with a win today, if that is motivation enough.
  • Monaco have scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Troyes have not beaten a top 7 side at home and have only 1 win v top 11 at home.
  • Monaco have all wins bar a draw home and away v 13th and lower.They tend to score 3/4 goals v 13th and lower away.
  • If Monaco are up for 2nd spot fight with Lyon, then they should beat Troyes with ease today and score 3+ goals in victory. I will enter this match on that basis.
  • Note Monaco may be another of those sides whose International players may be wary that this is their last competitive league match. They will NOT want to get injured before the World Cup.

19:00 - St Etienne v Lille - 1.6 St Etienne

  • Another dead rubber. Lille are safe from relegation.
  • 2 consecutive defeats for St Etienne has ended a hugely impressive run of 13 matches unbeaten.
  • I think this being at St Etienne will spur them to win or at least not lose. Their home support is superb.
  • 3 consecutive wins for Lille see them in a mini revival. Lille have scored and conceded in 12 of their last 13 matches so may not let St Etienne get their own way.
  • Lille have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 6 aways so watch out in that regard. It does suggest laying Lille if Lille score first.
  • St Etienne's record v 10th and lower at home does see them score 2 goals readily.
  • I will be with St Stephen here. 2-2 might have legs as a trading angle.

19:00 - Lyon v Nice - 1.49 Lyon

  • The prestige of a top 2 spot for Lyon is their motivator. Nice could go 5th with a win.
  • 8 wins and a 3-2 loss for Lyon recently suggests they are in good nick. Lyon have scored 2+ goals in their last 8 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins for Lyon without conceding.
  • Nice have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 wins in 8 matches for Nice.
  • Nice have not beaten a top 4 side away from home.
  • Lyon at home have stumbled v 5th-9th inclusive at home with Nice in 6th.
  • Will the motivation of a top 2 spot see Lyon through? That is how I will approach this match.
  • There is a possibility of a goal before halftime.

19:00 - Marseille v Amiens - 1.29 Marseille

  • Amiens have nothing to play for. Marseille could go 2nd with a win (pending other results). Post Europa League Final, Marseille will not be distracted on that count.
  • Only 5 defeats all season for Marseille.
  • Marseille have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches losing only to Lyon (Lyon have done the double against Marseille this season).
  • Marseille are unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower. 8 wins and a draw at home for Marseille v 11th and lower. Amiens are 12th.
  • Amiens have not beaten a top 9 side away from home. They failed to score away v top 6.
  • We should expect a Marseille win today with still something to motivate this side who are excellent at home.

19:00 - Rennes v Montpellier - 1.94 Rennes

  • A dead rubber this match.
  • A draw and 3 wins for Rennes in their last 4 matches.
  • Rennes have scored in their last 13 matches. They have scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • Montpellier have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches away v top 6 sides, Rennes are 5th.
  • Nothing to play for but Rennes are in good ultra recent form. Is that enough to side with them?

19:00 - Nantes v Strasbourg - 1.87 Nantes

  • This is a dead rubber, Strasbourg have done enough to ensure French Ligue 1 football next season.

GERMAN CUP

19:00 - Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.26 Bayern

  • The German Cup. The usual pattern with the German Cup is that Bayern Munich win, but tend to get pushed by Borussia Dortmund.
  • 4 wins and a draw in the Cup in their last 5 matches for Bayern in the cup.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches for Frankfurt.
  • We might get a glimpse into Frankfurt's tactics re their last match in the cup, a 0-1 win v Schalke. Remember in the league that this is a Schalke side scoring in their last 27 matches.
  • If you want an ultra speculative punt, back 0-0 pre match and hope this defensive strength is prevalent for Frankfurt today. Apart from that angle, it really should be business as usual for Bayern UNLESS the big players play cautiously with the World Cup on the horizon.

ITALIAN OPEN 2018

Elina Svitolina v Anett Kontaveit - 1.55 Elina

  • Semi finals. I feel that Elina was very lucky to have met Kerber who she had a 5-0 record over recently. A fortuitous fixture for her.
  • 6th v 34th.
  • An impressive set of results for Anett but a question mark regarding the form in beating Wozza so easily as she has had a recent abdominal problem. Wozza at her best will not be losing 2-0.
  • So suspect form for both players makes this tough to call. No strong angles for me unless you want to follow the prompting from the market.

Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic - 1.21 Nadal

  • It is still hard to get a read on Novak.
  • 24-26 head to heads. these 2 know each other very well.
  • Novak won the quarters here in Rome 2 years ago Rafa won the semi's in Madrid last year.
  • Kei Nishikori I refer to as sick note so how to evaluate Novak's win over him.
  • I have to be with Rafa in his current hungry clay court form v a Novak clearly beatable by mere mortals such as Klizan, Edmund, Taro Daniel, Benoit Paire. Not the invincible Serb of years gone by.

Simona Halep v Maria Sharapova - 1.47 Halep

  • 1st v 60th.
  • 1-7 Sharapova in head to heads. Halep won the last one in 2017 in Beijing.
  • Maria has had 3/4 3 setters this campaign which tells me to lay Maria if she wins the first set.
  • Halep should be fresh. 2 easy wins (6-1 6-0 and 6-2 6-3) and a walk over.
  • I am with Halep today.

Marin Cilic v Alexander Zverev - 1.49 Zverev

  • 6th v 4th.
  • The momentum is with Zverev.
  • 4-0 head to heads on the trot to Zverev.
  • Always tight head to heads. The last 3 have been 3 setters.
  • Zverev has the better form beating Edmund (recent victor over Djokovic) and Goffin (been in electric form).
  • A semi final and 2 consecutive clay court finals for Alex suggests we side with him. I feel his odds could be higher in play and would be happy to back him at 1.8 or higher today.