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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Crystal Palace v Liverpool - 1.50 Liverpool

Crystal Palace - 12th

  • A win and 2 1-1 draws last 3 matches.
  • Only clean sheet came 1st match.
  • Conceded last 12 matches and last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-1 at home v 2nd and 1-0 win v 3rd at home.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Liverpool - 1st

  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw, away - all score draws.
  • Scored in every match. Remember that if conceding first.
  • 6/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Quite obviously Liverpool struggle away. Beat all comers at home, scoring 2+ goals, but score draws away. Do remember that they have scored in every match should they....yet again, concede first away from home.

15:00 - Southampton v Man City - 1.44 Man City

Southampton - 3rd

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 2 defeats came 1st match of the season.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss, Win at home. The loss saw Saints lead 2-0.
  • Failed to score only 1st match.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 3/4 matches v the top 9.
  • 7/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Man City - 8th

  • 2 wins and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Draw away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches, the last 2 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side yet.

Conclusions

  • A fascinating match given the City away woes, particularly recently and particularly v the top 7.
  • Will Southampton continue to score 2+ goals at home?
  • We cannot discount Southampton here. I do feel Man City will look to end their inability to score in their last 2 matches away.

17:30 - Everton v Arsenal - 2.4 Everton

  • Watching brief I'm afraid! Aubameyang is scoring again for Arsenal, albeit one goal for a Burnley win, and one for a draw. They are still a shambles and we need to approach Arsenal matches from a reactive perspective.

20:00 - Newcastle v Fulham - 2.45 Fulham

Newcastle - 14th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win at home.
  • Only clean sheet first match.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Beat 18th and 19th at home. Wins at home saw them concede.
  • 3 goals scored and 5 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Fulham - 17th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • A loss and 2 draws last 3 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Draw, Draw recently. Take the Man City loss away and it is Win, Draw, Draw vastly improved.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • All defeats have come v 5th-15th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • Hugely improved Fulham could keep improving v a Newcastle put to the sword by Leeds latest. Newcastle though have beaten 18th and 19th at home and play 17th today. They also concede in victory at home.

SPL

15:00 - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.14 Rangers

Rangers - 1st

  • All wins bar 2 draws.
  • 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 9 consecutive wins, 8 consecutive home wins.
  • 8 consecutive home clean sheets, scoring 2+ goals too.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first all matches, led halftime 7/8.

Motherwell - 9th

  • 3-5 goals conceded v the top 3.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 away matches.
  • All 6 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Another match where we are unlikely to see a trade as Rangers are likely to score first and before halftime. IF none of that happens, then it's all go.
  • 3+ goals expected of Rangers today.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Atletico Madrid v Elche - 1.20 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid - 1st

  • Only loss came in the Madrid derby last match.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 last 6 home matches.
  • 8 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 5 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 11/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Elche - 14th

  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss recently.
  • Not beaten the top 10 home or away.
  • Failed to score v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • Atletico Madrid should revert to win to nil today - that is my expectation.
  • They do score reliably 2nd half if they haven't scored first half.

15:15 - Barcelona v Valencia - 1.33 Barcelona

Barcelona - 5th

  • 4 consecutive home wins some respite for Koemans.
  • Scored in their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 11th-17th at home. Only loss at home has come v Real Madrid.

Valencia - 12th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • Did beat 2nd away 0-1 but that was the only away defeat.
  • 2-1 tends to be the standard losing scoreline away.
  • 6/8 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • 5/6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Like so many sides this season, the Champions League/Europa League has taken a real toll. Now free of those shackles, Barcelona are returning to something like their reliable selves at home. Form points to another home win, maybe a 2-0, 2-1 for Barcelona.
  • An argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Valencia, if conceding away, do so in the first half.

17:30 - Levante v Real Sociedad - 2.10 Real Sociedad

Levante - 18th

  • Not conceded a 2nd goal in 7 matches but only won 1, and only lost one.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a 3-0 at home recently.
  • Only clean sheet came last home match.
  • Wins only v 16th and lower.

Sociedad - 2nd

  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten away v 8th and lower.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Levante have been tough to score a 2nd goal against and Sociedad have scored only 0-1 in their last 2 away matches but Levante only tend to beat 16th and lower and the suggestion is score draw best case for them.
  • Sociedad have struggled lately, no win in 4 - coincides with Europa League?
  • Look for 2nd half goals Sociedad.

17:30 - Osasuna v Villarreal - 2.10 Villareal

Osasuna - 20th

  • 5 defeats and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • Not played 2nd-8th at home.
  • 3 goals scored and 5 goals conceded last 15 minutes of home matches.

Villareal - 4th

  • 4 consecutive draws, 3 were 1-1.
  • 4 draws and a win last 5 away.
  • All wins tend to come v 11th and lower, albeit mostly at home.
  • In contrast to Osasuna, Villareal are 1st half scorers and conceders away.

Conclusions

  • This should not present a problem for Villareal, bar yet another score draw I suppose. They tend to score 1st half away but may be able to salvage something in the last 15 minutes given Osasuna's relatively high concession rate last 15 minutes of home matches.

20:00 - Sevilla v Valladolid - 1.50 Sevilla

Sevilla - 6th

  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 2 wins at home ended with a 0-1 loss v Real Madrid.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 100% wins v 16th and lower were all 1-0.
  • 3 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Valladolid - 17th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Have lost to 1st, 3rd and 4th away without scoring.

Conclusions

  • Valladolid are highly likely to concede.
  • What chance another 1-0 Sevilla win? And don't forget they do tend to score in the last 15 minutes of matches at home if it is 0-0 up until the 75th minute.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Frankfurt - 2.05 Frankfurt

Augsburg - 9th

  • Only 4 wins, one came last match v Bielefeld.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 78% of goals conceded and 62% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Frankfurt - 10th

  • 7 score draws and 2 losses last 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 6 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 2 defeats came v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Highly likely we see both teams score in Frankfurt's matches. Do note they have only lost to the top 5 and play 9th today. An Augsburg whose form lines are not that solid. They have 2 consecutive home score draws and you know, I would look to lay any late score draw despite the trend for both sides. They'll be sick of the sight of another score draw.
  • Very strong 2nd half stats for Augsburg re goals so remember that.

14:30 - Leipzig v Koln - 1.30 Leipzig

Leipzig - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 3 wins and a 3-3 last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheet wins.
  • 6/6 home wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+ goals scored in all home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins v 11th and lower at home.

Koln - 15th

  • 2 wins only all season came last 2 away matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win away recently.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Lost at home to 1st and 2nd.

Conclusions

  • Koln are in excellent recent away form but Leipzig's 100% home win rate, 2+ goals looks too consistent to be moved here.

14:30 - M'gladbach v Hoffenheim - 1.83 Mgladbach

Mgladbach - 8th

  • 4 score draws in their last 5 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Draw at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Scored first in 5/6 home matches.
  • All score draws v 5th-12th inclusive.
  • 4/5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • All defeats home and away have come v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • 2 patterns need to be broken. Hoffenheim scoring and conceding away without winning, and Mgladbach scoring and conceding at home v 5th-12th and score drawing (will that extent to 13th?).
  • With Hoffenheim tending to lose to the top 10, we'd quietly favour Mgladbach.

14:30 - Schalke v Arminia Bielefeld - 2.10 Schalke

  • Short shrift this one. Newly promoted Arminia Bielefeld and struggling Schalke. Both bottom 3 sides makes little appeal on paper.
  • Heck, a side which makes Schalke the market favourite must be a bit dodgy. Bielefeld's 2 wins this season have come at home v the bottom 4 but what about away?

17:30 - Leverkusen v Bayern Munich - 1.70 Bayern Munich

  • Top 2 clash. I tend to steer clear of high profile matches and top 2 clashes as far as research is concerned. In-play stats here.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Fiorentina v Verona - 2.20 Fiorentina

Fiorentina - 17th

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • No win in 7.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Win, Loss, 1-1, 1-1 at home recently.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only played one of the top 9 at home, a 1-1 draw.

Hellas Verona - 7th

  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win away recently.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away matches.
  • Only 1 away loss v 14th was a 1-0.

Conclusions

  • 1-1 draws pervade so many clubs at the moment. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws at home for Fiorentina but little to gauge them by re the top 7.
  • Hellas have only 1 away loss, 1-0 v 14th and if that pattern continues, lay Fiorentina if they score first but take out insurance on the 1-0.

17:00 - Sampdoria v Crotone - 1.83 Sampdoria

Sampdoria - 11th

  • Only 4 wins all season. Won their last match.
  • That ended a run of 4 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches saw only 1 win.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-1 and 2-2 draws v the bottom 3 this season.

Crotone - bottom of the league

  • Win, draw latest. A sign of recovery?
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 wins yet favourite tells you the market doesn't like Crotone, despite a win and draw latest. Samp are unbeaten v the bottom 3 with 2 score draws. They do collect 2-1 scorelines and turned one into a win latest. They must be given a chance unless that Crotone mini revival continues. They are yet to win away.

19:45 - Parma v Juventus - 1.36 Juventus

Parma - 14th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • 2 2-2 draws away v 1st and 2nd. Not met the top 3 at home.

Juventus - 3rd

  • Unbeaten. The curse of 1-1 returned last match but was of Juve's doing. A missed penalty to make it 2-1.
  • Scored and conceded in all away matches so if the unbeaten pattern continues, score draw is worst case scenario.
  • 3/3 score draws away v the top 15.
  • 5/7 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • For me, score draw is the worst case for Juventus. And Parma threatened a win v AC Milan latest only for that to finish 2-2 so are capable of threatening an upset.
  • A bit like Liverpool. The Old Lady tend to score draw away from home and have been too reliant lately on penalties, a missed one costing the win last match.
  • A competitive match for Juventus.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:45 - Venlo v Twente - 1.91 Twente

Venlo - 15th

  • Only 2 wins saw the opponents score 5 goals between them.
  • No clean sheets.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 2.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.
  • 2+ goals conceded at home in all bar 1 match.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Twente - 6th

  • 2 losses last 3 matches came at home.
  • 3 wins in 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored first all away.

Conclusions

  • Twente should feel confident today. Venlo have not beaten a top 12 side and tend to concede 2 goals. A good foundation for Twente who have scored first away and scored last 5 away and have 3 wins in 4 away.

19:00 - RKC Waalwijk v PSV Eindhoven - 1.28 PSV Eindhoven

RKC - 12th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches, only 3 wins all season.
  • Conceded 2 goals last 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only home win came last match, 3-2.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side.
  • 6/7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 6/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

PSV Eindhoven - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Struggles away. Score draw, Win, Loss, Score draw, Score draw.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 5/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • PSV's away form is similar to Liverpool. They score every match but are liable to score draws and a defeat away. The market though is not perturbed by this poor away form. They think RKC could be vulnerable to at least 2 goals today as they tend to be v the top 3. They are yet to beat a top 5 side. Do note RKC's very strong 2nd half scoring and conceding trend.

20:00 - Utrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 1.36 Utrecht

Utrecht - 10th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a 2-1 loss latest.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 5 at home and last 7 overall.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • Scored and conceded all matches v 6th and lower.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sittard - 14th

  • Only 2 wins came last 2 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side conceding 2 goals at least in all matches.
  • 10/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • What to make of a sudden run of 2 wins for Sittard? The fact is, though, that they are conceding 2 goals v the top 11 in a winless run there.
  • Utrecht love to score and concede and may give Sittard a look in here but do we expect yet another 1-1 if Sittard score first?