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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 19, 2017

See you at 14:30 on Twitter @drtclub for Ze Germans. We have a potential humdinger Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen. Last season, both teams to score dominated these 2 sides' stats, as did the sight of a goal at least before halftime. Will the Banks of the Hoff and Werder Bremen be open for business today? Form an orderly queue!

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Dortmund - 1.89 Dortmund

  • 2-5-5-3 goals scored by Dortmund in the last 4 head to heads yet their odds today are a little cautious. Maybe because they are away from home.
  • Wolfsburg have lost 8/14 home matches while B. Dortmund have won 8/13 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Dortmund have won by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 3rd bottom last season, Wolfsburg are lucky to be here. They only won 2 home matches v top 13 last season.
  • All of Dortmund's losses last season came away from home. The vulnerability is there, therefore, when they travel.
  • Dortmund scored and conceded in 14 away matches last season.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen - 1.85 Hoff

  • A 1-2 loss to Liverpool mid week for the Hoff who begin their Bundesliga season after a (rather uncharacteristically) consistent solid season last year.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 14 head to heads.
  • The Hoff has generally come out worst in head to heads but won 3-5 last time these 2 met.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 15/18 W. Bremen away matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 12/17 W. Bremen away matches.
  • Hoffenheim have scored first in 10/11 home matches.
  • Expect a goal at least before halftime (I tend to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market particularly if 0-0 at halftime. Others simply lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as early as they can).
  • Watch out for any 2-0/0-2 lead as the team leading will be eminently layable.
  • You might want to start with a Desmond 2-2 correct score back pre match and hope the fireworks start. Do note a few recent 1-1's in head to heads though.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Stuttgart - 2.1 Hertha Berlin

  • The home side has tended not to lose in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Hertha Berlin have drawn the first half in 6/7 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 51% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Promoted teams have conceded first in 56% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Top 6 finish for Hertha Berlin last season reasonable.
  • Only 1 draw at home for Hertha .10 wins and 2 draws at home v teams below them in the league. An assumption that Stuttgart will be bottom half. They are newly promoted of course so it is a big assumption. Look at what Leipzig achieved last season.
  • 7 clean sheets at home v bottom 9 for Hertha. If they work to that standard today then Stuttgart will have trouble.

14:30 - Hamburg v Augsburg - 2.18 Hamburg

  • 2 consecutive Hamburg head to head wins ended with a 4-0 Augsburg win.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Hamburg SV home matches against bottom-six teams and in 10/15 Augsburg away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Augsburg have conceded first in 8/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 14th v 13th from last season. Poor seasons and relegation threatened.
  • At home Hamburg were solid. They only lost 2 matches outside of the top 3.
  • Only 1 away win for Augsburg v top 8 15 teams.
  • We have no current form to work on. It does seem Hamburg's season will be based on their home form.

14:30 - Mainz v Hannover - 2 Mainz

  • Mainz are unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have drawn the first half in 8/11 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 51% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 FSV Mainz 05 home matches against promoted teams.
  • v 3rd to 7th, 13th to 18th at home, Mainz were unbeaten. Hannover are newly promoted.

17:30 - Schalke v RB Leipzig - 2.6 RB

  • 2-1 and 1-1 in Leipzig favour last season. The surprise package last season, can Leipzig continue?
  • Top 10 Schalke only lost 4 at home, 2 were 0-1, and 2 were v 1st and 5th. 1-1 draws at home v 2nd, 3rd and 4th suggests a defensive set up v the big guns.
  • Leipzig lost 4 away last season, 2 were v the big 2. v 4th -13th away, there was a very strong both teams to score bent for Leipzig.
  • This will be competitive, and the market knows it with the favourite at odds of 2.6! 1-1 a good starting point?

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - Swansea v Man Utd - 1.37 Man Utd

  • Both teams have scored in 10 of the last 11 head to heads.
  • Swansea have lost by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams while Man Utd have had W/W double results in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Man Utd have won 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Quite obviously Lukaku began his career at United in fine fettle.
  • Swansea kept a 0-0 away at a Southampton side who quite simply diminated. Man Utd are a little less charitable you feel infront of goal.

15:00 - Bournemouth v Watford - 2.02 Bournemouth

  • 2 consecutive 2-2's in head to heads. 4 consecutive draws. No Premiership match has seen 5 consecutive draws in each of its first 5 matches.
  • Bournemouth have won by two or more goals in 5/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Watford have lost by two or more goals in 8/14 away matches.
  • Bournemouth have won 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Watford's 3-3 v Liverpool was more about Liverpool's poor defence than any ability Watford has infront of goal. West Brom did what West Brom do at home. Win 1-0 v Bournemouth.
  • Top 9 for Bournemouth last season and only 2 defeats at home v teams beneath them in the league. In 6 home matches v bottom 8. Bournemouth scored at least 2 goals.
  • I could foresee a draw ending match today.

15:00 - Burnley v West Brom - 2.66 Burnley

  • It's simple really. 2-2 at Burnley and 4-0 at West Brom when these 2 met. Makes life easier!
  • Burnley have scored first in 8/8 home matches against middle-third teams while WBA have conceded first in 8/12 away matches. This was a key stat to exploit last season. Can Burnley continue to score first more often than not at home against all-comers.
  • Burnley have won 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Both sides won their opener but Burnley were very lucky even v 10 and then 9 men at Chelsea.

15:00 - Leicester City v Brighton - 1.76 Leicester

  • Leicester have won 5/8 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 65% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Promoted teams have conceded first in 67% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Expectation is for Leicester to dominate here. The Great Bard is still in charge and that usually suggests Leicester goals.

15:00 - Liverpool v C Palace - 1.39 Liverpool

  • A thoroughly professional performance by Liverpool against Hoffenheim midweek saw them score 2 and concede 1.
  • 1-3, 1-2, 1-2 Palace the last time they have visited Anfield. Should Klopp of the Kop be concerned?
  • Liverpool have had W/W double results in 9/14 home matches against middle-third teams while C Palace have lost the first half in 8/11 away matches against top-six teams.
  • C Palace have conceded first in 8/9 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Both teams may very well score. I would trust Liverpool to get back into it if conceding first.

15:00 - Southampton v West Ham - 1.77 Southampton

  • Southampton did everything except score last match at home. Is this a prolonged problem?
  • The away team won the head to heads last year.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 West Ham away matches and +3.5 goals in 7/13 West Ham away matches.
  • Southampton have drawn the first half in 11/13 home matches.
  • There is a question mark regarding Saints front line. We will see today if any absolute dominance can be translated into goals.

17:30 - Stoke City v Arsenal - 1.87 Arsenal

  • 3-1 and 1-4 Arsenal in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Stoke have lost 5/8 home matches against top-six teams while Arsenal have won 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Stoke did not beat any top 12 team at home last year. They won only 1 match home and away v the top 12.
  • The expectation is for Stoke not to win today. Will Arsenal score 3+ goals?

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - Kilmarnock v Celtic - 1.18 Celtic

  • 2 0-1 wins when Celtic has visited Kilmarnock.
  • Kilmarnock have lost 6/7 home matches against league leaders while Celtic have had W/W double results in 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Celtic have won 9/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 2 losses for Kilmarnock so far. 2 wins for Celtic. They won their last away match 0-1 while being similarly priced to today.
  • Will this be a tough 0-1 for Celtic?

15:00 - Aberdeen v Dundee - 1.35 Aberdeen

  • 13 goals in 3 head to heads in Aberdeen's favour. They must be confident today.
  • Aberdeen have won 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Dundee have lost 8/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.
  • Dundee have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.
  • 2 wins for Aberdeen, 2 losses for Dundee. There is nothing to suggest a shock.

15:00 - Hibernian v Hamilton - 1.56 Hibernian

  • Top half non-Big One promoted teams have scored first in 53% of home matches against top-half teams since 2012-13 while Hamilton Ac have lost by two or more goals in 3/5 trips to promoted teams.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 4/5 Hamilton Ac away matches against promoted teams.
  • No head to heads since 2014.
  • 2 wins for Hibs saw both teams score.
  • A loss and a win for Hamilton who are newly promoted.

15:00 - Rangers v Hearts - 1.7 Rangers

  • At least one side has scored at least 2 goals in each of the last 12 head to heads.
  • Rangers have had W/W double results in 4/6 home matches against middle-third teams while Hearts have lost the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Rangers have won 5/6 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 1-2 win and 2-3 loss for Rangers who were red carded in the 2-3 loss.
  • 4-1 loss to Celtic and 0-1 win away v Killy for Hearts.
  • Will we continue to see one side score at least 2 goals? Given Rangers score and concede I would look at laying Hearts if Hearts scored first.

15:00 - Motherwell v Ross Co - 2.62 Ross

  • The market cannot split these 2.
  • The away side has won the last 2 head to heads.
  • Motherwell have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Ross County away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Ross County have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches.
  • Both teams have scored so far in these teams' 2 matches. Motherwell has lost. Ross won and lost 1-2.
  • Will we see both teams scoring?

15:00 - St Johnstone v Partick - 2.1 St J

  • 2 St Johnstone 1-0 wins in the SPL head to heads.
  • St Johnstone have conceded first in 8/15 home matches.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 11/14 Partick Th. away matches.
  • 2 wins for St J see them atop the SPL! 2 losses for Partick. St J has 6 goals in 2 matches. Can we trust them to equalise if Partick scores first?

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Lyon v Bordeaux - 1.67 Lyon

  • 1-1, 3-0, 1-3 the last 3 times Bordeaux has visited. Not as clear cut as a 1.67 quote?
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 9/11 Lyon home matches and +2.5 goals in 6/9 Bordeaux away matches against top-six teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/10 Lyon home matches.
  • Both sides are unbeaten. 2 wins for Lyon and a win and draw for Bordeaux who scored 2 goals in each match.

19:00 - Rennes v Dijon - 1.65 Rennes

  • Dijon inflicted a 3-0 home win over Rennes 2 matches ago. The market does expect the home side to dominate today.
  • Rennes have won 10/15 home matches against bottom-six teams while Dijon have lost 12/20 away matches.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 5/9 Dijon away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Both teams have scored in Rennes first 2 matches, without Rennes winning. Dijon has lost their opening 2 matches, conceding a total of 7 goals.
  • Dijon only won 1 away match last season.
  • Top 9 side Rennes were rock solid at home. 3 losses only, 2 came v the top 2.

19:00 - ESTAC Troyes v Nantes - 2.7 Troyes

  • A superb 7th spot for Nantes last season. They only lost 3 matches v 8th and lower at home. Newly promoted Troyes are an unknown in this better league.
  • Top-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 59% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Nantes away matches against promoted teams.
  • Nantes have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against promoted teams.

19:00 - Montpellier v Strasbourg - 1.89 Montpellier

  • 1-0 win and 0-1 loss for Montpellier this season. Strasbourg lost heavily away at Lyon but beat Lille 3-0 (a win the market did not anticipate).
  • Strasbourg are the unknowns here, newly promoted. Montpellier beat 4 of the top 8 at home last season and were unbeaten v all bottom 5 home and away.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 11/13 Montpellier home matches against promoted teams.
  • Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 56% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Juventus v Cagliari - 1.15 Juve

  • Already Juventus has delivered a profit, via the Super Cup, this season and will be a very reliable trading vehicle this season if falling behind.
  • 4-0 and 0-2 wins last season in head to heads suggests the 1.15 odds are an accurate reflection of a likely 3+ goals from the Old Lady.
  • Juventus have won 13/14 home matches against middle-third teams while Cagliari have lost 6/6 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Cagliari have lost by two or more goals in 4/6 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Juventus won all bar a draw at home last season. They scored 2 goals at least at home v teams 10th and lower.
  • Cagliari won only 1 away match v top 16 last season and lost all v top 6.

19:45 - Hellas Verona v Napoli - 1.43 Napoli

  • Likely a Juventus, Napoli, Roma triumvirate this year in Italy, unless the Milanese sides can re-discover some of their past glories.
  • Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 13/14 Napoli away matches.
  • Napoli have had W/W double results in 9/10 away matches.
  • Only the top 4 could beat Napoli last season. They were quite superb. Hellas Verona are newly promoted and have likely scratched this match off their list of 'likely wins'.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Twente v VVV - 1.81 Twente

  • The home team tends to dominate in head to heads. Will that continue today?
  • In 8 of the last 10 head to heads, at least one team scored at least 2 goals.
  • Twente have won 8/10 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 60% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2012-13.
  • Promoted teams have conceded first in 66% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2012-13.
  • Twente lost to Feyenoord in their opener. Not a surprise. VVV beat newcomers Sparta 3-0.
  • I would look to be with Twente here today. VVV are newly promoted so we cannot strictly get a handle on them. They may 'do a Huddersfield'.

18:45 - Az Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag - 1.39 AZ

  • 3 consecutive AZ wins in head to heads.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 12/20 AZ Alkmaar home matches and +2.5 goals in 13/17 Den Haag away matches.
  • Den Haag have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top-six teams.
  • AZ lost 3-2 to PSV in their opener.
  • ADO lost 0-3 at home to Utrecht in their opener. AZ were very competitive v PSV. I cannot see AZ not scoring today.
  • Top 6 for AZ last season saw them only lose to the top 4 at home.
  • ADO won only 1 away match v top 10 last season.

19:45 - Heerenveen v Heracles - 1.66 Heerenveen

  • Heerenveen 3-1 and Heracles 4-1 last 2 head to heads. That clears that up then!!
  • Heerenveen have scored first in 11/18 home matches while H Almelo have conceded first in 11/12 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • H Almelo have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • What an eventful start. Heerenveen were 0-2 up but ended up drawing 3-2. Heracles beat Ajax 2-1 after conceding first. this is an Ajax losing mid week to Rosenborg in the Europa League so all may not be well at Ajax - note that for tomorrow.
  • This could see both teams scoring today. Heerenveen only lost 2 home matches last season outside of the top 2.
  • Only 4 away wins for top 10 Heracles last season. We did see a lot of both teams scoring for Heracles away. We see this in head to heads too.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

17:45 - Celta Vigo v Sociedad - 2.44 Celta

  • We tend to see very tight head to heads.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 14/18 Celta Vigo home matches and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Celta Vigo home matches against top-six teams.
  • Real Sociedad have won 8/10 away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • Only 1 home win v top 8 (Sociedad were 6th) last season for Celta was a 4-3 v Barcelona.they did concede 2 goals at least in 6 of 7 matches at home v top 7.
  • Sociedad lost only one match home and away v teams 11th and lower. If that form is retained they have a good chance here.

19:15 - Girona v Atletico Madrid - 1.49 Atl

  • Newly promoted Girona will be an unknown quantity.
  • Atl. Madrid have had W/W double results in 6/9 away matches against promoted teams and they have won 6/9 such matches.
  • Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • All Atl Madrid losses last year were exclusively v top 6 sides.

21:15 - Sevilla v Espanyol - 1.67 Sevilla

  • 6-4 Sevilla and 3-1 Espanyol the last 2 head to heads.
  • Sevilla have won 12/14 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while Espanyol have had L/L double results in 7/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Espanyol have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Top 4 for Sevilla last season and only Barcelona beat them at home.8 wins were by a single goal last year at home.
  • A respectable 8th for Espanyol. They could not beat any top 8 side away from home.

 PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA

18:15 - Guimaraes v Sporting Lisbon - 1.79 Sporting

  • Guimaraes are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads in all competitions.
  • Guimaraes. have conceded first in 10/14 home matches against Big Three teams while Sporting have won 9/13 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Sporting have scored first in 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • 3-2 win and 3-0 loss for Guimaraes so far this season. 5 goals conceded and you don't want a slack defence against the likes of Sporting, Benfica or Porto.
  • 0-1 and 1-0 wins for Sporting.
  • 4th place for Guimaraes last season surprises me! Will they breach the top 3 this season? The fact remains that Guimaraes failed to beat any top 3 team last season home or away.
  • Sporting scored and conceded away v all top 7 last season.
  • We may see surprises today. Guimaraes do not look like an out-and-out underdog to me.

20:30 - Benfica v Belenenses - 1.23 Benfica

  • 17 goals in 4 meetings for Benfica. Belenenses look like they have lost already!
  • Benfica have won 9/10 home matches while Belenenses have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 trips to Big Three teams.
  • Benfica have had W/W double results in 13/17 home matches.
  • A 90th minute winner for Benfica v Chaves suggests they may struggle against any ultra-defensive unit.
  • 1-0 loss v Rio Ave and 1-0 win v Maritimo for Belenenses. Are Belenenses predominantly defensive? Looking at head to heads, they could concede 4+ goals.