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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 18, 2023

Focus on Elite Leagues today as far as pre-match research is concerned but you'll know we will trade any and all matches where we can sniff out a trading angle, and there's liquidity in the markets. Stats spreadsheets are at the DRT Facebook page. I will do a review/preview video and see you for a live chat webinar at 14:30 - details below:

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT review/preview video for 18th March 2023

Time: Mar 18, 2023 02:30 PM London

Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84951134966?pwd=V0FvQXdqRy9zUHdCcmxFNWJsMzV6UT09

Meeting ID: 849 5113 4966

Passcode: 504481

English Premier League

15:00 - Aston Villa v Bournemouth - 1.67 Aston Villa

Aston Villa - 11th

  • It has taken a good un to beat this Emery Villa side - Leicester, Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal - Leicester the exception here.
  • Scored last 13 and last 8 at home.
  • 2-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • Have beaten 19th and 20th at home.
  • 13/20 goals scored at home first half.

Bournemouth - 18th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches were 1-0.
  • Beat Liverpool but this is a Liverpool worrying about the 5-2 loss to Real Madrid!
  • No draw in 4 and in 8 away.
  • Scored last 5 and last 2 away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away.

Conclusions

  • New manager syndrome can always hinder form reading. Villa look solid under Emery, only tending to lose to the real top 5 sides. Bournemouth ain't top 5! They are yet to beat the top 10 away and do play 11th today. They are scoring - Villa should counter if conceding.
  • Villa score more than 1/2 home goals first half - you may want to factor that into any first-half play.

15:00 - Brentford v Leicester - 1.95 Brentford

Brentford - 8th

  • Only 2 defeats since 14th October.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Scored last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home outside of 1st in the league.
  • 2-2 last head-to-head.

Leicester - 16th

  • 8 losses, 2 wins and a draw last 11 matches - 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Loss away recently.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 13 away.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Leicester, ex-Premier League Champions, are flirting with relegation. Brentford are a tough nut to crack and overcame an improving Saints last match.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Leicester do concede.

15:00 - Southampton v Tottenham - 1.80 Tottenham

Southampton

  • Only 3 wins since 23rd October.
  • New manager so only his matches to look at.
  • 0-1 away win v Chelsea; 1-0 home loss v Leeds; 1-0 home win v Leicester; 0-0 away v Man Utd and 0-2 loss v Brentford.
  • Nearly another 1-0 but for a 90th-minute goal.
  • So we must recognise this new manager and his strongly defensive bent. With 3 losses in 4 away. Tottenham are wobbling away.
  • Angles? I cannot be confident given the new manager for Saints. Clearly they are capable of stifling opponents. Tottenham have tended to score 3 goals v the bottom 2 this season.

15:00 - Wolves v Leeds - 2.15 Wolves

  • New manager syndrome may still be in-play for Wolves and is a definite factor for Leeds.
  • No draw in 11 at home for Wolves.
  • No win in 7 away for Leeds.Conceded last 5 away.
  • Leeds have only 1 away win all season. 4/5 home wins for Wolves were 1-0 only. You could see Newcastle still confident even at 1-1 v Wolves, knowing that 2nd goal is elusive. How Wolves need a bit of Bully.
  • No strong angles, sorry.

17:30 - Chelsea v Everton - 1.44 Chelsea

Chelsea - 10th

  • 10 consecutive matches without scoring that 2nd goal ended in a 1-3 win v Chelsea and that was after 2 v Dortmund in the Champions League.
  • Potter starting to get a tune out of Chelsea.
  • 2 consecutive wins v Leeds and Leicester.
  • 0-1-0-0-1 goals scored at home recently.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 12th-19th.
  • 7/8 goals conceded at home 2nd half.
  • 10/14 goals scored at home 2nd half.

Everton - 15h

  • 3 1-0 wins in 4 for Everton at home for Sean Dyche and Everton.
  • After failing to score in 3 away, Everton scored 2 goals v Forest away and did score a 2nd v Brentford but that was disallowed.
  • Is Dyche getting a tune out of the forward line?

Conclusions

  • New manager syndrome. No confident pre-match play. Chelsea will give Everton a workout, now they have 3 consecutive wins, 2 clean sheets.
  • Everton threatened 2 goals in 2 consecutive matches. Chelsea to halt the Toffee momentum (albeit a draw away rather than 3 consecutive away defeats to nil).
  • A surprise would not surprise. Can Dyche bring the 0-1 home-winning formula away?

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Augsburg v Schalke - 2.25 Augsburg

Augsburg

  • 4 consecutive home wins, 5 consecutive away defeats. They'll fancy it today with that home momentum.
  • No draw in 10 and in 6 at home.
  • v 8th and lower at home, 3 1-0 wins, 1-1 draw, 2-1 win, 0-1 loss v 14th and 0-2 loss v 15th.
  • 67%+ of goals at home 2nd half.

Schalke

  • Marked improvement but 4 0-0's in a row, and now 2-1 home win, 0-2 away win, 2-2 home draw v Dortmund.
  • 3/3 clean sheets away.
  • For me this is the only form we need for Schalke - clear recent improvement suggests some changes in coaching staff.

Conclusions

  • Fascinating but hard to predict. Augburg's 4 consecutive home wins cannot be ignored, but then Schalke have made huge changes, and are now scoring 2 goals, as they have done in their last 3 consecutive matches. Hence...2.25 I suppose. I may chance a lay of Augsburg if they score first and trust those Schalke 2 goals patterns?

14:30 - Bochum v RB Leipzig - 1.57 Leipzig

Bochum - 14th

  • 4 losses and a win last 5.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-2 defeats.
  • No draw in 17 and in 7 at home.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • 4-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • All defeats conceding 3+ and scoring none v the top 3.
  • 9 goals conceded at home last 15 mins.

Leipzig - 3rd

  • Only 2 defeats since 1st October.
  • Only 1 defeat home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 62% goals scored away 2nd half - 8 goals scored 75th+ minute.

Conclusions

  • Will Bochum be on the end of a frustration-inspired spanking? Leipzig licking wounds after a 7-0 loss v Man City in the Champions League.
  • Bochum simply tend to lose 3-0 or higher v the top 3. Trust that?
  • Lay the late draw, particularly with the Bochum pattern and with the strong 75th+ minute pattern for goals.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin - 2.00 Hoffenheim

  • A clear case of new manager syndrome for the Hoff who have tightened up that defence, 3 1-0 defeats attested to that. The defence was on form, considering they conceded within the first 5 minutes yet held firm enough to equalise but the horror show returned with a late winner for the opposition.
  • Prepare therefore for a tight Hoff defence which may make it hard for Hertha to score 2 goals in. Hoff did manage to score last match and it did show in the in-play stats. That's the new manager's next goal - scoring after keeping a clean sheet!

14:30 - Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - 2.37 Stuttgart

  • 2.37 the favourite. Leave this one alone.

17:30 - Dortmund v Koln - 1.44 Dortmund

Dortmund - 2nd

  • The 100% 2023 win record ended in 2-2 v Schalke, a match where Dortmund led twice.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 at home.
  • 3-2 loss last head-to-head.

Koln - 12th

  • Only 2 wins in 14  came at home.
  • 3 draws in 4 away.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3/3 draws away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • A draw seems best case scenario for Koln today. They are struggling to score so any opening goal would surprise for them. Any lead is layable.
  • Dortmund still in great form, and scoring 2 goals regularly enough to trust.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Almeria v Cadiz - 2.15 Almeria

Almeria - 19th

  • Will dip out of the bottom 3 with a win.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 100% wins at home v 11th and lower.
  • 13/20 goals scored at home 1st half.

Cadiz - 16th

  • Win, Draw, Draw recently.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • 0-1 win away v 14th, and 17th and 0-0 v 18th.

Conclusions

  • Cadiz are defensively sound v 14th and lower, tending to keep clean sheets but Almeria have 100% wins at home v 11th and lower. Well matched therefore. Tough to split.

15:15 - Rayo Vallecano v Girona - 2.05 Rayo

Rayo Vallecano - 7th

  • No win in 5.
  • Win, draw, draw at home recently.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 13, 3-2 v Real Madrid.
  • 2 goals conceded v 2nd, 4th, 5th and 10th at home.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home first half.

Girona - 12th

  • 2 wins, and 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • Conceded last 12 away.
  • Not beaten the top 8 - 2-2 last head-to-head.
  • 96% conceding rate overall.

Conclusions

  • Girona have the measure of Athletic Bilbao but that's the only set of wins home and away v the top 11.
  • I think this is competitive. Rayo are conceding 2 goals regularly v the top 10 albeit meet 12th today. Girona have conceded last 12 away.

17:30 - Espanyol v Celta Vigo - 2.60 Celta

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

20:00 - Atletico Madrid v Valencia - 1.61 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid - 3rd

  • Flirting with derby style match but this Valencia having an inexplicably poor season.
  • Break into the 50+ point range with a win.
  • 5 clean sheets last 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • 0-1 win last head-to-head.
  • 75% conceding rate at home.
  • 14/22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.

Valencia - 17th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches came in the last 2 home matches.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 12 away, failed to score last 5 away.
  • Not beaten top 7 away.
  • 11/16 goals conceded away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A mystery how Valencia have dipped in form this season, rather like the Hoff in Germany and Sampdoria in Italy. All long-term top-flight members in relegation fights.
  • On seasonal form, Atl Madrid are likely to be hard to beat. Keeping clean sheets. Valencia not beaten top 7 away yet.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0/draw.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Monza v Cremonese - 1.80 Monza

Monza - 12th

  • Only 2 defeats since 13th November.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • Conceded last 4 and last 5 at home.
  • 2 draws and 4 wins at home v 13th and lower.
  • 2-3 win last head-to-head.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 14th and lower.

Cremonese - 19th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 2-1-3-2-3 goals conceded away recently.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • Conceded last 13 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 away.
  • 2 goals scored away v 8th, 11th, 13th, 14th, 16th, 17th.
  • 10/14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Cremonese's record automatically sees them opposed. They have a strong 2 goal habit and Monza are the type of team Crem might fancy. Monza though will have different ideas. Only 2 defeats since 13th November and a tendency themselves towards 2 goals v 14th and lower. Dare we lay the first team to score 2 goals?

17:00 - Salernitana v Bologna - 2.20 Bologna

Salernitana - 16th

  • Win, draw, draw latest but only 2 wins since 5th November.
  • No draw in 4 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 8 at home.
  • 1-1 last head-to-head.
  • 11/17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bologna - 9th

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 matches were 1-0 defeats.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss away recently.
  • No draw in 9 away.
  • Conceded last 12 away.
  • Only played 1 of 13th to 19th away but are unbeaten v 10th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • The non-committal odds may be down to gaps in form particularly for Bologna. The latter's form, on paper, impresses more. Only 2 recent 1-0 defeats (Salernitana layable if leading?) compares with an improving Salernitana but with only 2 wins since 5th November.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

19:45 - Udinese v AC Milan - 2.15 AC Milan

Udinese - 10th

  • Only 2 wins since 9th October.
  • Those 2 wins were 0-1 away.
  • 4 score draws in 5 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 at home.
  • Strangely unbeaten v top 6 at home, 3-1, 4-0 and 2-2.

Milan - 4th

  • Win, Win, Win, Loss, Draw recently.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss away recently, some affected by Champions League.
  • Not beaten top 11 away yet.

Conclusions

  • Udinese's recent form is very poor but they are unbeaten, and scoring 2+ goals v the top 6 at home. I think those results fell earlier in the season when things were rosier for Udinese. Milan - well can they be trusted? No win v the top 11 away yet.
  • Both teams to score a very strong trend for Udinese may open up a trading angle.