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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 18, 2023

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and see you on Telegram throughout, along with a live chat webinar at 14:30 for our German pals:

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Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 18th February 2023

Time: Feb 18, 2023 02:30 PM London

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I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I will continue with the deep dive spreadsheet.

English Premier League

12:30 - Aston Villa v Arsenal - 1.75 Arsenal

  • Unai Emery has got a good tune out of Aston Villa but it is clear that there is another tier up - comprising those who have recently beaten them - Man City, Leicester, Liverpool, Newcastle.
  • Now enter Arsenal and you see where I am going here. Another expected Villa defeat. 2 consecutive defeats may see a defensive reaction from Villa.
  • Arsenal are on a 2-match winless sequence. You can bet they will be itching for that to end. New manager syndrome as Emery has not met Arsenal yet, as Villa manager. We daren't assume. Everton beat Arsenal remember - new manager syndrome.

15:00 - Brentford v Crystal Palace - 1.85 Brentford

Brentford - 8th

  • London derby. Please remember that.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 at home.
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 at home.
  • Only Arsenal have beaten them at home - 1-1 last head-to-head.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw at home in London derbies so far.

Crystal Palace - 12th

  • 3 draws in 4 came at home.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.
  • No draw in 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.
  • 10/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • London derby so that would be the reason for a 'surprise'. Brentford yet to win a London derby at home but are rock solid - only Arsenal have beaten them at home. Palace quite simply need to overcome a poor winless run home and away v the top 10 - the Beez likely to be Buzzing round the Eagles today.

15:00 - Brighton v Fulham - 1.67 Brighton

Brighton - 6th

  • Unbeaten in 5.
  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • Scored last 11.
  • Only 1 win in 7 home and away v the top 8.
  • Can threaten goals at home. 2-0-0-3-4 goals scored v top 10. Yes a dip to zero twice but can unlock goals.
  • 2-1 loss last head-to-head.
  • 11/17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fulham - 7th

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 0-0-1-0 goals conceded last 4 away.
  • Only Newcastle and Man City have beaten Fulham away since 15th October.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 5.
  • 64% of away goals came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is confident but Fulham have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 away including v Chelsea, whose forward line is a little more lethal than Brighton's. That said, Brighton have scored last 7 at home and are strong 2nd half scorers. Fulham though have only been beaten by top 4 away and only tend to lose to the top 5. What about 6th? An intriguing match in which I think Brighton's odds are too short. Fulham cannot be discounted. Those clean sheets seem to have gone under the radar.

15:00 - Chelsea v Southampton - 1.40 Chelsea - 1.40 Chelsea

  • Potter's imponderables. Chelsea have scored 0-1-1-0-0-2-1-0-1-1-0-0-1 goals recently. This is also pre-Champions League for Chelsea and will be THE most vulnerable time for the team.
  • New manager for Saints after Nathan Jones's sacking. Touch of the old Liz Truss's about that one. Research is pointless therefore for Saints.
  • Watching brief. This star-laden Chelsea side will click at some point. Value seekers lay Chelsea 1-0 lead given their 2nd goal absence.

15:00 - Everton v Leeds - 2.45 Everton

  • New manager syndrome both sides. Good luck untangling this. Dyche is a usual 1-0 merchant.

15:00 - Nottingham Forest v Man City - 1.30 Man City

Nottingham Forest - 14th

  • Only Fulham, Man Utd, Arsenal have beaten Forest since 18th October.
  • 2 consecutive home wins, no defeat in 7 at home, scored last 9 at home, and 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 6-0 loss last head-to-head. Not played top 4 at home but conceded 11 in 2 away v the top 2. Did concede 2+ goals v 5th, 7th and 8th.

Man City - 2nd

  • 2 consecutive away defeats v Man Utd and Tottenham.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • 11 wins and 2 1-1 draws home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 67% of goals away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Just a tad shorter than these odds last week were City, and they were emphatic. Forest ordinarily carry a goal threat at home and a goal would not surprise but they hint at possible dangers. They conceded 2+ goals at home v 5th, 7th and 8th and that would be bare minimum target for City today. Solid Forest unbeaten home run may be paused today.
  • Champions League for Man City next week - will that play into Forest's hands today?

15:00 - Wolves v Bournemouth - 1.67 Wolves

  • New manager syndrome still for Wolves. Why? Well he was installed 5th November but has yet to meet Bournemouth as manager of Wolves.
  • Wolves form has been excellent since his appointment, losses only to Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City.
  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil, includes 3 goals against Liverpool.
  • Only 4 wins for Bournemouth, 3 came at home. 6 consecutive away defeats, conceding last 11 away, this looks an ideal opportunity for Wolves today If the new manager's system of football somehow is countered by Bournemouth and their new players.

17:30 - Newcastle v Liverpool - 2.45 Newcastle

  • Liverpool face Real Madrid in the Champions League and are on a 3 match away losing sequence, conceding 3 goals in each. 2 consecutive 3-0 away defeats.
  • Newcastle's only loss this season was against Liverpool.
  • 0-0-1-0-1-1 goals scored recently though and paying for it with 2 consecutive 1-1 draws. So maybe not another 3-0 away defeat for the Pool.
  • Watching brief for me. A match of context rather than seasonal form.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Bochum v Freiburg - 2.25 Freiburg

Bochum - 15th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches came away.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 13.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • Of the top 6 they played at home, they have beaten 2nd and 6th - 1-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • 89% conceding rate at home 2nd half.

Freiburg - 4th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches away.
  • Both teams to score in 6 of their last 7.
  • Conceded last 7.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Lay any 2nd half draw/0-0.
  • Favour Freiburg on their unbeaten run v 8th and lower BUT a couple of Bochum wins v top 6 at home intrigues.

14:30 - Borussia M'gladbach v Bayern Munich - 1.40 Bayern Munich

Mgladbach - 10th

  • Win, win, loss, draw at home recently.
  • 1-1 last head-to-head.
  • 4-2 win v 3rd and 3-0 win v 5th shows some home bite v top 5.
  • 10/13 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Bayern Munich - 1st

  • 7 goals scored last 2 matches puts to bed 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Scored last 13.
  • Led at halftime in 8/10 away.
  • 21/28 goals scored away 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Post Champions League a possible Bayern Achilles Heel but they are scoring for fun last 2 and consistently match-by-match. Mgladbach had some bite v the 2 top 5 teams so the value is in opposing Bayern as short as possible in case Mgladbach score 3 goals again v top 5.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Stuttgart v Koln - 2.40 Stuttgart

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v RB Leipzig - 2.15 RB Leipzig

  • Leipzig have a Champions League match next week.

17:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Werder Bremen - 1.60 Frankfurt

Frankfurt - 6th

  • Only 5 defeats this season.
  • 5 wins in 6 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 6/10 at home.
  • 3-4 win last head-to-head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.

Werder Bremen - 9th

  • 2 wins in 3. Lost to Dortmund latest.
  • 3 losses and a win away.
  • No draw in 13.
  • Both teams have scored in 6/7 matches away v top 14.
  • 14 goals total last 15 mins includes 8 scored away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • 75th minute + worth monitoring for late goals.
  • We may see Werder resistance - remnants of that 7 goal Koln mauling. Dortmund took until the 2nd half to score.
  • Frankfurt are in the Champions League next week.

Dutch Eredivisie

15:30 - FC Volendam v Vitesse - 2.05 Vitesse

17:45 - Groningen v Emmen - 2.25 Groningen

20:00 - Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar - 1.70 Feyenoord

Italian Serie A

17:00 - Monza v AC Milan - 2.05 AC Milan

Monza - 10th

  • Unbeaten in 8.
  • 3 consecutive home draws includes a 2-2 v Inter Milan.
  • Scored last 8 and last 8 at home.
  • All defeats bar a 2-2 v the top 8. Conceding 2+ goals at home v top 8.
  • 4-1 loss last head-to-head.

AC Milan - 5th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • Draw, loss, loss away recently.
  • Losses away came v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • No wonder AC Milan are over evens. Despite being newly promoted, Monza are flying at home of late. Value would be to lay AC Milan particularly if they led 0-2.

19:45 - Inter Milan v Udinese - 1.50 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 2nd

  • Only 2 losses since 8th October.
  • 6 wins and a loss in 7 at home.
  • 0-0 last match.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 at home.
  • 3-1 loss last head-to-head.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home.

Udinese - 7th

  • Only 1 win in 14 saw 8 draws.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • 3-2 loss v 1st and 4-2 loss v 5th away.
  • 7 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Watch out for Udinese who have a 2-goal habit v the top 5 away. Inplay stats may reveal but recent form says maybe no. 8 draws in 14 matches saw only one win.
  • Inter have 6 wins in 7 at home. I will side with them today but be flexible.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Champions League upcoming for Inter Milan.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo - 1.80 Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad - 3rd

  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 1-2 win last head-to-head.
  • Only 1 home defeat outside of the top 5 - not conceded that 2nd goal either in those.
  • 9/12 goals scored at home first half.

Celta Vigo - 14th

  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal in all aways bar their last...where they suddenly scored 4 goals.
  • All defeats v top 4 home and away.
  • 13/19 goals conceded away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A form spanner in the works for Celta with that 3-4 win away v 5th last away match. Totally against their usual goals struggles away and v a top 5 side to boot!
  • If normality was to return Sociedad are likely to keep Celta to 1 goal maximum and should eye the win, draw worst case.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you think Sociedad can continue to score first half.

17:30 - Mallorca v Villarreal - 2.40 Villareal

  • Mallorca took advantage of a Real Madrid distracted by the FIFA World Club Cup. Great 1-0 home win.
  • Villareal are under new manager syndrome. That's 4 consecutive wins to nil at home for Mallorca and now 10 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats for Villareal is a concern for the new manager.
  • 0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1 goals scored away recently. Scored and conceded last 2 away.
  • Angles? 2.4 the favourite betrays some concerns. Mallorca simply cannot be discounted in this excellent home win run.
  • With such a strong under 2.5 goals trend for Mallorca, back 0-0 pre-match? Yes, Villareal are scoring away, but it is a struggle and Mallorca are your typical 1-0 merchants. The later that 1-0 of course the better!

20:00 - Osasuna v Real Madrid - 1.80 Real Madrid

  • Champions League v Liverpool upcoming for Real Madrid. They were sloppy in defeat v Mallorca, having also to make team changes given the FIFA World Club Cup. Do check the starting XI for Real Madrid. I won't research in depth given the Champions League distractor but will not expect a 2nd consecutive defeat Real Madrid.