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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 18, 2017

See you at 14:30 today for the German Bundesliga. Live chat at delayreacttrade.com. There is no Premiership football today as the Cup takes over.

12:00 - Sporting Gijon v Atletico Madrid - 1.54 Atl Madrid

  • Gijon are unbeaten in the last 3 home head to heads so note that in Spanish Primera Liga.

Sporting Gijon 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Not beaten any top 7 side (Atl are 4th).
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Sporting Gijon other stats

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Last 5 home matches were over 3.5 goals.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Conceded 3 goals v 5th, 6th and 7th at home and play 4th today.
  • Both teams have scored in 90% of home matches.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • Unbeaten in all matches v 7th and lower - Gijon are 3rd bottom.
  • All clean sheets away v 10th and lower.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • Only 2 wins in their last 7 away matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Champions League match for Madrid on 21st February might be a distraction.
  • If not, they are likely to win to nil today.
  • Note Madrid's strong 2nd half scoring trend if 0-0 at halftime. You have a correct score option 2nd half in this case.
  • Sporting Gijon do have a very strong both teams to score trend at home which is contrary to the above Madrid clean sheet stat v 10th and lower.
  • If Gijon score first, Madrid could still win.

14:30 - Dortmund v Wolfsburg - 1.46 Dortmund

  • 2 consecutive Dortmund 5-1 wins in head to heads in the German Bundesliga.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • Not conceded an equaliser at home.

Dortmund other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets and failed to score in only 3 matches - lends itself to both teams scoring?
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • Over 1/2 of halftime scores were 1-0.

Wolfsburg 100% stats

  • None.

Wolfsburg other stats

  • Only 4 draws all season, 3 were 0-0.
  • No draw in 8 matches.
  • 88% of halftime scores either 1-0/0-1 or 0-0.
  • Failed to score away in the 3 matches played v top 7 teams.

Conclusions

  • Lay Wolfsburg if Wolf score first as Dortmund have not conceded 2 goals at home neither have they lost at home.
  • Halftime score highly likely to be a 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and with over half of Dortmund's home matches 1-0, that looks the most obvious choice.
  • Expect a Dortmund goal if losing or if 0-0 for a while.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich - 1.43 Bayern

  • 2-0 and 3-0 Bayern in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Bayern are fresh from spanking Arsenal in the Champions League and may either be renewed or fatigued. We shall see!

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

  • No draw at home.
  • Not met the top 5 at home yet but not beaten any of them away.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • Vast majority of home goals scored 61st minute+.

Hertha Berlin other stats

  • 5 defeats in their last 7 matches.
  • All wins bar a 0-1 loss to Werder at home.

Bayern Munich 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v teams 5th and lower in the league.
  • No 0-0.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Bayern Munich other stats

  • Only 1 loss.
  • That was the only match they failed to score in.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • All wins away outside the top 4.
  • 7 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • We assume Bayern are not fatigued from their excellent mid week match v Arsenal.
  • An element of the unknown as Hertha are yet to meet the top 5 at home and against all others they have largely won. No draws for Hertha at home - lay the late draw?
  • Bayern tend to win away outside the top 5 - expect that today in the expectation that Hertha's poor away performances v top 5 signals struggles at home v top 5 (where we have no current info).
  • Watch out for goals 61st+ minute if 0-0 or a small lead coming to the hour mark. This is where Hertha and Bayern tend to score the majority of their goals.
  • I would naturally have to side with Bayern today.

14:30 - Mainz v Werder Bremen - 2 Mainz

  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads with Mainz not losing the last 2 in the German Bundesliga.

Mainz 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league (Mainz are 12th and Werder are 16th).
  • Beaten all teams below them in the league, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Mainz other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only Bayern have beaten them at home since 2nd October 2016.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded - conceding 2-4 goals in all away matches v 10th and lower - failing to win any of them.
  • Scored and conceded all matches home and away v 11th and lower.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • Failed to score and concede last match - big shock!
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score only once tells you both teams scoring is a high probability.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.

Conclusions

  • I would have to favour Mainz who, despite poorish season long form, emphatically beat teams below them in the league, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Werder owe us nothing, having profited plenty times with a goal before halftime and both teams to score. The latter did not come off last match but Werder have scored and conceded in all matches v 10th and lower, conceding 2 goals at least.
  • Let 2 goals for Mainz be in your thought processes regarding this match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score.
  • I would suggest Mainz not to lose today but we are entering panic stations for Werder who desparately need points.

14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Ingolstadt - 2.12 Eintracht

  • 0-2 Frankfurt in the previous German Bundesliga head to head.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • 3rd in the Bundesliga.
  • Unbeaten at home and at halftime at home.

Frankfurt other stats

  • 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Scored 6 home goals in the last 15 mins.

Ingolstadt 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No draw away v top 12 sides.
  • All defeats this season by 1 or 2 goals.

Ingolstadt other stats

  • Only 3 draws.
  • 4 defeats in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 9 away matches.
  • 6 losses and a win away v top 12 sides.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw. Ingolstadt were heading for a draw v Bayern Munich, until they conceded 2 late goals.
  • I would have to favour Frankfurt today on their home form. Lay Ingolstadt if Ingolstadt score first.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v SV Darmstadt - 1.49 Hoff

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Draws at home v 14th, 15th and 16th - Darmstadt are bottom.
  • No over 4.5 goals at home.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • Only 2 defeats came in their last 2 matches away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in their last 16 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match at home.

Darmstadt 100% stats

  • 100% of points earned at home.
  • Lost all away matches of course.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Darmstadt other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 17 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 8/9 away.

Conclusions

  • Hoff are likely to remain unbeaten at home. They have drawn v bottom 1/3rd sides so watch out for potential struggles.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If Darmstadt lead, they must be layed.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Man City - 1.52 Man City

  • A sturdy test likely for Man City today and being the Fa Cup, a cursory look at team news for the Premiership team is recommended. We have seen a pattern this season of consistently picking weakened sides for the FA Cup. I would expect this in the League Cup but not necessarily in the FA Cup.

Huddersfield overall form

  • 12 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 14 matches. Solid form.
  • 6 wins and a 1-1 draw in their last 7 home matches in all competitions.

Huddersfield Fa Cup form

  • 2 consecutive 4-0 wins in 2017 v Port Vale and Rochdale.
  • Last met an established Premiership side in 2011, that was a 2-1 loss.

Man City overall form

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 10 of their last 12 matches, only the 2 Merseyside sides stopped that.
  • 3 consecutive wins away from home to nil.

Man City FA Cup form

  • Only 1 Fa Cup draw since January 2011.
  • 4 wins to nil in their last 5 matches, the only exception a loss to Chelsea.
  • The away loss the Chelsea the only away loss in the FA Cup since 2011.
  • 4 wins to nil surround that Chelsea loss.

Conclusions

  • Be prepared for a good old fashioned FA Cup tie here. Man City remember also have a Champions League tie up and coming and Huddersfield are in solid form in the toughest league in Europe to get out of!
  • City may be vulnerable with that upcoming Champions League match as I say. We layed them against Swansea at 1.07 and profited as Swansea equalised. Iwould consider the same today, and be more confident with a perceived weakened City FA Cup side.

15:00 - Cardiff v Rotherham - 1.51 Cardiff

Cardiff 100% stats

  • No draw at home v 7th and lower in the league - Rotherham are bottom.
  • 2 2-1 wins v bottom 2 this season.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Cardiff other stats

  • 6 wins and 2 defeats last 9 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 8 wins and 12 defeats home and away v teams 16th and lower.

Rotherham 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Conceded in every away match.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Have lost away to all top 11 teams and meet 12th today.

Rotherham other stats

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 8 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 16 away.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw as Cardiff seem to avoid draws v lower teams. 3/4 of matches v 16th and lower ended in wins.
  • Rotherham must be currently opposed given they have no away win and have lost all away v top 11 and meet 12th today.
  • Any 0-0 will be an anomoly. Rotherham especially are expected to concede.

15:00 - Burton v Norwich - 2.12 Norwich

Burton 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Burton Albion other stats

  • No draw in 13 matches saw 4 wins, all of which were 2-1.
  • 5 defeats in their last 6 home matches.
  • Conceded in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 10 teams. Norwich are 7th.

Norwich 100% stats

  • All wins have come home and away v 11th and lower in the league.
  • Scored and conceded in the 6 matches played v bottom 4 teams, where Burton are.

Norwich other stats

  • Only 1 defeat in 9 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of 12 matches v teams 17th and lower.
  • 16 goals conceded away in the last 30 minutes.

Conclusions

  • Norwich have the better form. We might see both teams score today and Norwich not lose.
  • Lay Burton if Burton score first.
  • If Norwich have kept a clean sheet to the 60th minute, take a chance on them conceding late.

15:00 - Blackburn v Man Utd - 1.38 Man Utd

  • Blackburn are 23rd in the English Championship.
  • Man Utd, under Mourinho seem to be taking all competitions seriously, including the FA Cup and Europa League.
  • A highlight for Blackburn this year was beating Newcastle at home 1-0.
  • Blackburn's last 2 losses in the FA Cup came v Premiership opponents Liverpool and West Ham. Coincidence or the big teams a step too far?
  • Man Utd's only recent loss was against Hull in the League Cup. This is the competition that United don't seem bothered about?
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets now for Man Utd in all competitions.
  • That loss to Hull was United's only defeat away from home recently.
  • United are unbeaten in the last 9 FA Cup matches winning their last 2 matches 4-0.
  • United are undefeated in the last 8 away FA Cup matches.

Conclusions

  • I like what I see from Man Utd and will trust them today to remain unbeaten. They are back in their 2 goals scoring a game habit - will that emerge now?

15:15 - Real Madrid v Espanyol - 1.22 Real Madrid

  • Real came from behind mid week against Napoli in the Champions League and won well.
  • Real Madrid tend to win with ease in Spanish La Liga head to heads.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten outside the top 4.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches v 6th - 16th at home (where Espanyol are positioned).

Espanyol 100% stats

  • Conceded 10 goals in 2 matches away v top 3 teams.
  • All home wins were by a single goal.

Espanyol other stats

  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches - 3-3-1-2 goals before halftime in those matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away - 50% of away matches.

Conclusions

  • We might see both teams score today so note that, and hope Espanyol score first for trading purposes.
  • Real are highly likely to score so keep the faith if 0-0 for a while.
  • Note Espanyol's heavy goals concession v top 3 sides. Speculators might want to back over 4.5 or 5.5 goals at enhanced odds if 0-0 after 20 mins or so.
  • Big goals before halftime in recent Espanyol matches suggests we should not see a 0-0 at halftime.

 17:00 - Atalanta v Crotone - 1.33 Atalanta

  • 1-3 Atalanta win the last time these 2 met in the Italian Seria A.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • No home draw.

Atalanta other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats in 19 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 10 goals scored at home in the last 1/2 hour.

Crotone 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • All defeats v top 7 home or away.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Crotone other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta are highly likely to score and not lose today.
  • Crotone tend to concede heavily at the end of first and second halves so watch out for that.
  • It looks a straightfoward match.

17:30 - Wolves v Chelsea - 1.4 Chelsea

  • Strugglers in the Championship plays First in the Premiership.

Wolves overall stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats, the last 2 were 0-1.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 home matches.
  • Last 3 home matches were 1-0, a win and 2 defeats.

Wolves Fa Cup stats

  • 2 consecutive wins v Stoke and Liverpool so they have form in this competition v Premiership teams.
  • No win in 4 home FA Cup matches. The last home match was in 2015.

Chelsea overall stats

  • Only 1 loss in 18 matches.
  • 2 1-1 draws in their last 3 matches came away from home.
  • 1-1-0-3-1-1 goals scored in recent away matches - an argument for struggles scoring away?

Chelsea FA Cup form

  • No draw in 13 matches saw 9 wins.
  • 2 consecutive wins scoring 4 goals.
  • Lost 2 of their last 3 away matches 2-0 v Man City and Everton.

Conclusions

  • Team news is important for Premiership sides in the Fa Cup.
  • No strong angles here. I note Chelsea's inability to score more than 1 goal in 5 of 6 matches away.
  • I would lay the late draw given Chelsea tend to avoid the draw.

17:30 - Twente v Heerenveen - 2.16 Twente

  • The last 4 head to heads in the Dutch Eredivisie have been either 3-1 or 4-1, and 2 to each side!

Twente other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win home or away v top 6 teams, where Heerenveen reside.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches home and away v teams 3rd to 9th.

Heerenveen 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Had to score 3 goals in all away wins.

Heerenveen other stats

  • Only 1 win in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8/10 matches v top 8 teams.

Conclusions

  • No strong patterns really. There is a both teams to score pattern which I would suggest could continue.
  • Speculators might like to chance 3-1/1-3 just for old times sake (check the head to heads).
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

18:45 - PSV v NEC Nijmegen - 1.18 PSV

  • PSV tend to win head to heads in the Dutch Eredivisie scoring 2 goals at least.

PSV 100% stats

  • Undefeated at halftime at home.

PSV other stats

  • Lost only 1 match.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in their last 5 matches, all wins.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 16 without defeat.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

NEC 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 4 teams.
  • No away match with exactly 3 goals.

NEC other stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 5 clean sheets only.

Conclusions

  • Earlier in the season PSV had real trouble scoring that 2nd goal at home but this seems to have ended. 5 consecutive wins scoring 2 goals at least should continue today.
  • 1.18 odds suggests 3/4 goals from PSV and a reminder if 0-0 at halftime, to back 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score ! And with 7 0-0's at halftime, we might get a chance.

19:45 - Empoli v Lazio - 1.79 Lazio

  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins in head to heads for Lazio in Italian Seria A.

Empoli 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 11 team - Lazio are 6th.
  • Not scored 2 goals in a match v top 14 teams.

Empoli other stats

  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only led in 1 home match at halftime.
  • Conceded 8 goals at home in the 61st+ minute.

Lazio 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All wins v 15th and lower.

Lazio other stats

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • 3-2-2 goals conceded in their last 3 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lazio should win today. They have a great record v bottom half sides.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:45 - Sevilla v Eibar - 1.53 Sevilla

  • 1-1, 1-0 Sevilla, 1-1 in the last 3 Spanish Primera Liga head to heads - tighter than today's odds would suggest.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • In with a real title shout this year.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league at home.
  • No home match with exactly 2 and 4 goals in total.

Sevilla other stats

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.

Eibar 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side or a top 14 side away from home.

Eibar other stats

  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches - put into context regarding the above form.

Conclusions

  • There is not much we can read into Eibar and it is interesting to note their excellent recent form, scoring 3/4 goals!
  • But I note that they have yet to beat top 4 teams (1-1 with Sevilla last time) and not beaten top 14 away so note that if Eibar are on the scoresheet again.
  • We might see a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Value seekers will note the head to heads and lay Sevilla if Sevilla score first as they are yet to score 2 v Eibar in recent matches.