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Nations League, English League One and Two and the Dutch Eerste Divisie. Please note I ordinarily do not research English League One or Two as I tend to view these leagues as untrustworthy. We shall see. I hope you find some good trading angles. I do not tend to live chat during the International Break.

UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

14:00 - Serbia v Montenegro - 1.43 Serbia

  • 35th v 39th.
  • The rankings suggest a tighter match than the market.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 unbeaten matches for Serbia in the NL. 2 draws, 2-2 and 0-0, came v Romania.
  • Montenegro kept clean sheets v Romania and Lithuania.They lost 0-2 to Serbia via an 18th minute penalty and 81st minute goal from open play. A lot less emphatic than that away scoreline suggests.
  • Serbia's strength is its defence so expect them to push for a clean sheet and nick a goal or two. 1-0, 2-0 possibles. Montenegro have only scored v Lithuania.

17:00 - Azerbaijan v Faroe Islands - 1.65 Azerbaijan

  • 107th v 95th in the rankings.
  • 3 draws and a 0-3 win v Faroes for Azerbaijan. That swings things surely in the home side's favour?
  • Faroes have scored one goal maximum in their 4 NL matches. It all points to us laying the Faroes if they score first as they have not shown a capacity to follow up.

17:00 - Malta v Kosovo - 1.53 Kosovo

  • 183rd v 137th. Low rankings. Kosovo are the newest European nation.
  • Both teams have scored in Malta's 4 NL matches. 3-1 loss for Malta v Kosovo.The match was 1-1 at one stage.
  • Kosovo are unbeaten in their 4 matches. 2 clean sheets and 2 1 goal concessions. 0-0 and 1-1 away for Kosovo. Are they vulnerable?
  • I would certainly lay any 1-1 draw I see despite Malta's liking for a 1-1. Kosovo look good here to get unbeaten.

17:00 - Turkey v Sweden - 2.48 Turkey

  • A market revealing a tough-to-call match, as with Albania and Scotland below.
  • 38th v 17th in the rankings.
  • Sweden took a 2-0 lead in the last head to head, and lost 2-3 thanks to Akbaba's 88th and 90th minute goals. An element of luck? Lack of Swedish concentration?
  • Apart from that match, little else to work with.
  • In-play stats with a slight bias towards the Swedes as they seem to have been sucker punched by the last 2 minutes of the match.

19:45 - Albania v Scotland - 2.52 Scotland

  • Another potential toughie.
  • 60th v 40th in the FIFA rankings.
  • Scotland beat Albania at home 2-0, the first goal was an own goal so not as emphatic as on paper.
  • Albania beat Israel 1-0 at home, and Israeli side beating Scotland 2-1.
  • Back 0-0 pre-match at its highest point and look to cash out if the expected long 0-0 arrives. The first goal, an own goal, came 47th minute in the previous encounter.

19:45 - Italy v Portugal - 2.26 Italy

  • A World Cup-less Italy have something to prove, particularly at home, regardless of the competition.
  • Italian matches have been very tight. 1-1 at home v Portugal, 1-0 loss to Portugal away, 0-1 away win v Poland. The earliest goal there was a 40th minute. We may see a 0-0 at halftime so back 0-0 pre match and hope this Italian defense is as robust as it has been in this competition.
  • Poland took the lead at home v Portugal, only for the Pork and Cheese to score the next 3 goals in a 2-3 win. Portugal have an attacking threat albeit their win v Italy was a 48th minute 1-0. Andre Silva the man with the scoring touch in Ronny's absence.
  • Potential for another defensive Italian display and a hope for 0-0 at halftime. It may end 1-0/0-1.

19:45 - Romania v Lithuania - 1.3 Romania

  • 3 draws and a 1-2 win v Lithuania so far for Romania. The 1-2 care of a 13th minute opener. Lithuania equalized in the 89th minute and Romania replied in the 90th minute.
  • 0-0-1-1 scored by Lithuania to date in 4 defeats.
  • It looks a simple case of the Lithuanians not having the fire power to take advantage if leading 0-1 today. A simplistic angle. Be with, admittedly, a limited-capability Romania.

ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE

12:00 - Fleetwood Town v Walsall - 2.2 Fleetwood Town

  • 4-2 Walsall and 2-0 Fleetwood in the last 2 head to heads.

Fleetwood Town (12th)

  • 3 losses in 4 came away.
  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet since 1st September.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only lost one match at home both teams scored in.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Walsall (11th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 14 team home or away.
  • 7 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half. 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Walsall will have to do something new here and beat a top 14 team. Both teams may score and it seems we lay Walsall if Walsall score first. Fleetwood have lost only one home match when both teams have scored. Walsall tend to concede 2 goals regularly.
  • Hugely contrasting 1st and 2nd half scoring.

15:00 kick-offs

Bristol Rovers v Scunthorpe - 2.14 Bristol Rovers

  • 1-1, 1-0 Scunthorpe, 1-1 last 3 head to heads.

Bristol Rovers (20th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2 wins in their last 3 matches though.
  • Failed to score in 8 of their last 11 matches but note the above wins recently.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.
  • Play 19th today and had 3 0-0's and a 2-0 win v 21st and lower.

Scunthorpe (19th)

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 match played away v 16th and lower, a 2-3 win away v 23rd. So we have that form gap which muddies the water.

Conclusions

  • The lack of away form v 16th and lower for Scunny is the niggler for me. How do we know how Scunthorpe will play v fellow strugglers? Were we basing conclusions on Bristol Rovers, then 0-0 would have to be in play and backed pre-match at its highest point in the hope Bristol produce another 0-0 to add to the 3 v 21st and lower.

Burton v Coventry - 2.48 Burton

  • A market, especially in this league, which makes this match unappealing.
  • No recent head to heads.

Burton (14th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches, losing only 1 of the last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • Only 1 loss v top 11 home and away.
  • All defeats bar 1 this season saw both teams score.

Coventry City (8th)

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches. Obvious who is the recent form side.
  • 4 wins in 5 away - good travellers.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of the last 3 away.
  • Only 1 loss away v 13th and lower with only one match without both teams scoring.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a strong recent pattern for both sides.
  • The odds are spot on, aren't they? A cogent argument can be made for either side. Only 1 loss v top 11 home and away for the home side.
  • Only 1 loss away v 13th and lower away for the away side.
  • In-play stats here

Doncaster v AFC Wimbledon - 1.95 Doncaster

  • 2-0 Wimbledon and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.

Doncaster (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower scoring 3 goals in 4/6 matches.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Wimbledon (23rd)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 7 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No draw in 14 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • A couple of 0-1 away wins v 12th and 17th.
  • Not scored a first half goal away.

Conclusions

  • Wimbledon can pull off a 0-1 away win but it is rare. On the season form, expect Doncaster to score 2/3 goals today which should oblige a home win.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Fear not if Doncaster have not scored by halftime. 80% of home goals scored came 2nd half. Think over 2.5 goals if 0-0 at halftime.

Luton v Plymouth - 1.54 Luton

  • 1-1 last head to head February 2017.

Luton (5th)

  • Only 2 losses since 21st August 2018.
  • 6 wins in their last 7 home matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All home wins v 7th and lower.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Plymouth (22nd)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 8 defeats and a draw v top 11 teams.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is right here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats but strong scoring stats 2nd half for both sides.
  • Plymouth tend to lose v top 11. Simples.
  • We are with Luton here. Note Plymouth have won 2 of their last 3 matches, but note the above stat.

ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO

15:00 kick-offs

Notts Co v Cheltenham - 2.44 Notts

  • Notts County are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads.

Notts Co (22nd)

  • Only 3 wins all season.

Conclusions

  • Just applying the brakes there. Only 3 wins plays only 2 wins.
  • Both sides are bottom 4 and have only played one match home or away v the bottom 4.
  • Very tough to read and best left to the in-play stats.

Bury v Stevenage - 1.63 Bury

  • No recent head to heads.

Bury (10th)

  • Only 2 defeats since 1st September were 1-0 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3/3 score draws at home v the top 9.
  • Only 1 win home or away v the top 13.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 5 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Stevenage (8th)

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • 3 away defeats v 5th, 6th and 14th.

Conclusions

  • Bury look the team to be with. Only 2 defeats since 1st September. Score draw seems worst case scenario.
  • Do expect a Bury goal....at some point. They have failed to score in only 3 matches.

Mansfield v Port Vale - 1.6 Mansfield

  • 0-4 Mansfield and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Mansfield (7th)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 10.
  • All clean sheets bar one at home v 6th and lower.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Port Vale (13th)

  • Unbeaten in 4.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • Failed to score a 2nd goal away, so their away wins have been 0-1.
  • 5 of 8 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Port Vale's failure to score that 2nd goal away may signal problems and on that basis I would lay them if they scored first. Given Mansfield like a clean sheet at home, this looks a good angle. I cannot see Mansfield losing on form today.
  • You might want to back 0-0 pre match given the Mansfield home clean sheets and the fact that 10 of their 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Swindon v Carlisle - 2.16 Swindon

  • 1-2 Swindon and 0-0 the last 2 head to heads.

Swindon (17th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v top 16 came v 10th - albeit 4 other draws and a single win.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not scored first at home or led at halftime at home.

Carlisle (11th)

  • Only 2 draws were 2-2.
  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Wins away v 10th, 15th, 19th and 23rd.

Conclusions

  • Swindon tend to concede first at home. Will that continue today? And if so, can they get back into the match given Carlisle have 4 wins away v 10th and lower.
  • I fear for Swindon today and would certainly lay them if they scored first. They might have a coronary if they score first at home and not know what to do with themselves!

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

These are usually our Friday friends.

17:30 - Jong PSV v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.56 Jong PSV

  • 2-1 AZ and 4-3 PSV in the last 2 head to heads.

Jong PSV (11th)

  • Only 4 defeats, 3 came away.
  • Lost last home match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score in only one match.
  • All over 2.5 goals matches bar 2.
  • Both teams scored in all bar 2 matches.
  • Only home loss v 3rd.

Jong AZ (16th)

  • Only 1 win. 6 score draws - 4 score draws in the last 6 matches.
  • Both teams scored in all bar 1 match.
  • Conceded in every match.
  • Only win came home v 2nd!

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is highly likely here with Jong PSV unlikely to lose based on the season's form.
  • Over 2.5 goals is highly likely too. 2 simple angles you can work with, tie in to tell us to lay Jong AZ if they lead at any stage.

18:45 kick-offs

Helmond Sport v Waalwijk - 2.28 Waalwijk

  • Waalwijk are unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads but 3 score draws.

Helmond (19th)

  • No win.
  • 4 defeats in their last 5 matches.
  • 7 over 2.5 goals matches in the last 8.
  • Only clean sheet came first match of the season.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 4/4 draws v 13th and lower.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not led a home match at halftime.

Waalwijk (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not played bottom 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams struggling for form. 2-2, 2-3, 3-2 possible tradable scorelines. Both teams tend to score in Helmond home matches. 4/4 score draws for them v 13th and lower. Waalwijk 2-2 and 3-2 albeit at home v strugglers.

Dordrecht v FC Eindhoven - 2.3 Dordrecht

  • Dordrecht are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads, winning the last 2.

Dordrecht (18th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • Sccored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches with just that win.
  • Only clean sheet first match of the season.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 home draws v 16th and 19th.

FC Eindhoven (17th)

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (29%).
  • Not played 15th or lower home or away.

Conclusions

  • I end it there. That gap in form means I do not know how FC Eindhoven are likely to do v the strugglers (both of these are strugglers). We know Dordrecht have 2 home draws v 16th and lower but not Eindhoven. In-play stats here.

Cambuur v Volendam - 2.34 Cambuur

  • 0-1 Cambuur and 2-2 last 2 head to heads.

Cambuur (9th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 5 losses in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar one has come v the top 7.
  • 5/5 wins at home v 10th and lower, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Led at halftime in 5/6 at home.

Volendam (13th)

  • Undefeated in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away ( 33%).
  • 3 of 4 defeats have come v the top 3 but only 1 away match played v 3rd-16th away - another gap in form.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Another gap in form clouds our form reading. Volendam not played 3rd-16th away and losses only v top 3.
  • I think I am more taken by Cambuur's form. 100% wins at home v 10th and lower, scoring 2 goals at least. That is consistent so I would look to lay Volendam if Volendam scored first today. There is a strong both teams to score pattern with them.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the home side leading 5/6 at home at halftime. The niggle? Volendam have conceded 70% of away goals 2nd half.