ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 - Bournemouth v Newcastle - 2.12 Bournemouth
- 4 of Bournemouth's last 5 wins came at home. 1-1 v Wolves and 0-1 v Man City latest suggests they may be tough to score against at home.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home for Bournemouth (33%).
- Bournemouth are unbeaten at home v 6th and lower. Newcastle are 13th.
- They scored 2+ goals v 8th-15th at home.
- Newcastle have been doing their season-saving 5 recent wins at home.
- Struggles away. 1-1-0-1-1-0-1-0 scored recently.
- Newcastle have no win in 6 away, conceding in those 6 away.
- Only 2 Newcastle away wins came v 17th and lower.
- For me Newcastle's away struggles may see Bournemouth on top today. Newcastle cannot score that 2nd goal of late so if scoring first may struggle. Lay them if they score first. Bournemouth have that 2 goal scoring record v mid table which makes them favourites on form.
15:00 - Burnley v Leicester - 2.48 Leicester
15:00 - West Ham v Huddersfield - 1.62 West Ham
- Only 3 wins in 11 for West Ham yet they are short priced favourites. 3 wins in their last 4 at home though so good stuff.
- Only 5 clean sheets for West Ham all season.
- West Ham at home are unbeaten v 13th and lower and meet 20th today.5 wins in 6 there, scoring and conceding in 5 of those matches.
- Only 1 win for Huddersfield since 1st December 2018 saw all defeats bar 2.
- 7 Losses in 8 away.
- Huddersfield did the double over Wolves but all other defeats v the top 10 away.
- It looks as if, despite West Ham's poor recent form, that they could record the win today at home despite possibly conceding. That is how I will enter this match.
SPANISH LA LIGA
12:00 - Huesca v Alaves - 2.58 Huesca
15:15 - Real Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.23 Real Madrid
- 7 wins in 9 for Real Madrid but 2 consecutive home defeats. The market reckons this sequence will end today.
- No draw in 10 and in 9 at home.
- 3rd placed Real have been relatively poorer this season but have 100% wins v 17th and lower and meet 18th today. Clean sheets at home too.
- 12 of 19 goals scored by Real Madrid at home came 2nd half.
- Celta Vigo have 9 losses, a win and a 0-0 in their last 11 matches.
- They failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- No win in 6 away for Celta Vigo.
- 2-0 loss away v 1st and 3-1 loss away v 4th for Celta.
- We should see a Real Madrid win to nil today based on seasonal form, scoring maybe 2+ goals. Simple angle. Real are strong 2nd half scorers so if they have not scored in the first half, expect them to do so in the 2nd half.
17:30 - Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid - 2.34 Atl Madrid
- Atl Madrid were undone by Juventus mid-week.
- Only 1 losses in 13 for Bilbao came away from home.
- No defeat in 9 at home for Bilbao - all under 2.5 goals matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (43%).
- 3/3 draws at home v the top 4.
- Only 2 home losses for Bilbao v 9th and 16th.
- 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 4/4 wins recently for Atl Madrid.
- Only 3 defeats all season.
- Madrid have failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- 2 away defeats v 8th and 18th saw Atl Madrid not score.
- 5 1-1 draws between 6th-16th away.
- 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Only 2 home defeats plays only 3 away defeats so this may be tight as the market suggests. 1-1 looks a tradable scoreline given it occurs so often for Atl Madrid.
19:45 - Leganes v Girona - 2.18 Leganes
- 13th v 14th here.
- Only 4 defeats for Leganes since 3rd November all came away from home.
- They are undefeated in 11 at home, scoring in each of those matches.
- Only 1 home loss. 0-0 v Girona earlier in the season. Leganes have scored 2 goals in only 3/13 home matches.
- Girona have won their last 2 away matches.
- Girona are unbeaten away v 12th and lower.12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- For me, a slight favouring of Girona here. Why? Leganes have trouble scoring 2 goals at home despite only 1 loss at home. Girona have scored 2+ goals in 3/5 matches v 12th and lower away. I would look to lay Leganes if Leganes scored first.
ITALIAN SERIA A
14:00 - Sassuolo v Sampdoria - 2.56 Sassuolo
17:00 - Spal v Roma - 1.86 Roma
- 4 losses in 5 for SPAL, scoring in 3 of those losses.
- No win in 11 at home for Spal.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (46%).
- SPAL beat Roma 0-2 last time these 2 met but that was pre-Champions League.
- SPAL have only played one home match v the top 5 at home, losing that match.
- 7 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of home matches.
- Only 1 loss in 10 matches for Roma came in the Rome derby.
- Only 5 clean sheets for Roma is a concern.
- Roma are more vulnerable away from home, playing 16th today. Draw, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Win away for Roma v 14th and lower.
- Roma lost 2-0 to Bologna but beat them in the return. This is possible today. No win in 11 at home for Spal. Roma are in great recent form and have only really lost recently to Juventus and Lazio. I would favour Roma today.
19:30 - Torino v Bologna - 2 Torino
- 5 wins and 2 0-0's for Torino in their last 7 matches.
- 5 consecutive home wins for Torino who kept clean sheets in those wins.
- Torino have a 100% win record at home v 13th and lower. They are 7th and Bologna are 18th.
- 3+ goals scored in wins v bottom 3 at home.
- Only 4 wins for Bologna all season who did win their last match, at home.
- Bologna have only 1 away win v 4th (Inter - who are in inconsistent form).
- If seasonal form is upheld, 2.00 could be a generous price about a Torino winning easily (3 goals) v the bottom 4 and playing a Bologna with only 4 wins all season. It would surprise me were Bologna to lead at any stage and I would lay them.
14:30 - Stuttgart v Hoffenheim - 1.91 Hoffenheim
- Only 5 wins for Stuttgart this season should make them immediately opposable.
- They did win their last at home.
- They have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches with just that one win.
- Only 3 clean sheets so likely to concede.
- They have scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home and none away for Hoff.
- All defeats for Stuttgart v the top 8 and Hoff are 8th.
- Only 2 losses for the Hoff since 20th October.
- They have scored and conceded in 12 of their last 14 matches and in their last 12 away.
- Hoff are unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
- This looks like a match in which the Hoff will not lose. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Both teams could score with the Hoff not losing.
14:30 - Wolfsburg v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 1.85 Wolfsburg
- Only 3 defeats since 24th November for Wolfsburg.
- Had a run of 5 unbeaten end with defeat to Bayern Munich.
- Wolfsburg are 7th and have only 1 loss v teams below them in the league. v 4th-12th at home, Wolfsburg have not won a match. 4 score draws though.
- Dusseldorf have impressed.Only 3 losses in 11 matches for Dusseldorf. They are yet to beat a top 9 team away from home and lost 0-3 to Wolfsburg earlier this season.
- 10 of 14 Dusseldorf goals scored away came 2nd half.
- For me, we may see both teams score today with worst case for the Wolf a score draw. The relative form of both sides is not the best. Wolf no win at home v 4th -12th. Dusseldorf have not beaten a top 9 team either away. I think what has me favouring the Wolf is that head to head win away from home earlier in the season.
14:30 - Augsburg v Hannover - 1.63 Augsburg
- Only 5 wins for Augsburg all season.
- Only 3 clean sheets for Augsburg.
- Augsburg have scored in their last 8 home matches and scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
- Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower, Augsburg are 15th and play 17th.
- 8 losses in 9 matches for Hannover.
- No win in 12 away, Hannover conceded in all of those matches.
- 12 goals conceded last 15 mins away by Hannover.
- For me, Augsburg are in poor form but are unbeaten v 12th and lower and that, along with Hannover's inability to win in 12 matches away, should see them right.
14:30 - Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig - 2.08 Leipzig
- 5 losses in 7 matches for Schalke sees them fail to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- They kept only 4 clean sheets all season.
- They have not beaten a top 6 side home or away and play 3rd today. 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
- All 11 goals conceded away by Schalke came last 1/2 hour of matches.
- 4 consecutive away wins for Leipzig in a run of 7 unbeaten.
- Leipzig are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower and meet 14th today.
- On seasonal form, Leipzig could score 2 goals today and go unbeaten - Schalke are yet to beat a top 6 side. Simple angle.
17:30 - Hertha Berlin v Dortmund - 1.89 Dortmund
- 10th v 2nd.
- Only 3 wins in 11 matches for Hertha Berlin.
- They have failed to score in only 4 matches all season.
- 3 wins in 4 matches at home for Hertha v top 5 and they meet 3rd today.
- Only 2 home losses for Hertha v 3rd and 7th.
- Only 2 losses for Dortmund.
- They scored in 10 of their last 12 matches.
- They failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Dortmund are unbeaten home and away v the top 10 and meet 10th today.
- This could be competitive. Hertha's 3 wins in 4 matches v top 5 teams at home attests to that. 2-2 last time these 2 met. I cannot readily dismiss Hertha.
15:00 - Hamilton v Hearts - 1.8 Hearts
- Only 6 wins for Hamilton all season. They have kept only 4 clean sheets.
- Hamilton have conceded in their last 8 home matches.
- Hamilton have all defeats bar a draw v 7th and higher. 1-4 loss and 2-0 loss v Hearts this season.
- Only 3 losses in 10 matches for Hearts were 2-1.
- Hearts have a good chance here, having already beaten Hamilton 1-4 and 2-0 this season. Hamilton are highly likely to concede today and should not win, based on playing the top 7.
15:00 - Hibernian v Motherwell - 2.02 Hibernian
- 3 wins and a draw v Rangers for Hibs recently.
- 9 of 13 goals conceded at home by Hibs came 1st half.
- Hibs are inconsistent at home, can beat 1st and lose to 8th. 3-0 win and 1-0 loss for Hibs v Motherwell earlier this season.
- Only 1 loss in 9 matches for Motherwell came v Celtic.
- Motherwell have not beaten a top 6 side away - Hibs are 6th.
- I don't like trading matches where one of the teams has unreadable form. That team is Hibs.
15:00 - St Johnstone v St Mirren - 1.79 St Johnstone
- 7 losses in 8 matches for St Johnstone.
- 5 losses in 6 matches at home for St Johnstone.
- With St Mirren bottom of the league, St Johnstone have a 100% win record at home v bottom 4, 1-0, 4-0, 1-0, 2-0.
- Only 4 wins for St Mirren. No win in 5 away matches for St Mirren.
- Only 1 away win for St Mirren.
- I think that St Johnstone, who have a 100% win record v the bottom 4, should record another win today.
15:00 - Rangers v Kilmarnock - 1.37 Rangers
- Rangers are still in with a title shout but must win all remaining matches.
- 5 wins and 2 draws recently. Only 4 losses for Rangers, who lost 2-1 v Kilmarnock last loss.
- 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
- Rangers have scored 12 goals in the first 15 minutes of home matches.
- Rangers only lost once at home. 1-1 v Killie at home last time.
- Rangers have not scored 2 goals at home v the top 4 - Kilmarnock are 4th.
- Only 1 win in 7 for Kilmarnock came last match. In 6 of those matches, Kilmarnock failed to score that 2nd goal.
- They in fact failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- 13 of 15 goals conceded away came 1st half.
- For me, Rangers hiccup v Kilmarnock. Certainly today though, if Kilmarnock score first, I would lay them given they have failed to score that 2nd goal regularly.
- Based on Kilmarnock's concession of 1st half goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but delay.
15:00 - Aberdeen v Livingston - 1.67 Aberdeen
- Only 3 losses in 14 matches for Aberdeen but coming to the end of the season, do they have anything to work towards? No win in 5 at home.
- 8 wins, a loss and a draw home and away v 9th and lower for Aberdeen. Livingston are 9th.
- 3-2 and 1-2 wins for Aberdeen v Livvy this season.
- Only 2 wins in 11 for Livingston came at home.
- No win in 12 away for Livingston who failed to score in their last 5 away.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away for Livingston.
- Only 1 away win for Livingston was v 12th.
- I think Aberdeen should win today but matches have been tight with Livingston, 3-2 and 1-2 losses.
- A high % of 0-0's at halftime for Livingston.