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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 16, 2021

I will do a live chat webinar at 14:30 today and be on Telegram throughout. There is a DRT review/preview video at DRT Facebook page.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Wolves v West Brom - 1.44 Wolves

Wolves - 14th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches came v Chelsea and Arsenal.
  • Loss v Everton again shows the frailty of scoring only 1 goal max at home (7 times at home).
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • Wins to nil at home v the bottom 2.
  • 7/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

West Brom - 19th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away score draws.
  • Only 4 matches under Allardyce - 3 heavy home losses without scoring and a 1-1 draw v Liverpool.

Conclusions

  • New manager for West Brom makes it hard to predict how this match will play out. Will Big Sam take advantage of Wolves' inability to consistently score 2 goals at home? Wolves have 2 wins to nil v the bottom 3 which is a positive. West Brom will be looking to keep Wolves goal less and try to nick a winner. They did it to Liverpool, can they do it to Wolves? The 3 home defeats to nil though must be a worry to Big Sam.

15:00 - Leeds v Brighton - 2.05 Leeds

Leeds - 12th

  • 3 wins and 2 defeats last 5 matches.
  • 1-0-1-0-1-5-1 goals scored at home.
  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5/5 wins v 15th and lower.

Brighton - 17th

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • No win in 8.
  • Unbeaten away v 10th and lower, albeit 3 draws.
  • 6 draws and a win home and away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Notably Leeds are goal shy at home apart from one match, the only match they scored 2+ goals in.
  • Leeds have 5/5 wins v 15th and lower and Brighton are unbeaten v 10th and lower away - the problem with Brighton is far too many draws.
  • So...will Leeds keep spluttering at home? Will Brighton keep drawing?

15:00 - West Ham v Burnley - 1.91 West Ham

  • I can confidently predict that the claret and blues will win this match. Lump on.

West Ham - 10th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses came v Man Utd and Newcastle.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • Draw at home v 14th, loss at home v 15th, draw at home v 17th.
  • 8/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Burnley - 16th

  • As you know, defensively sound bar the Man City match but succumbed to a 0-1 defeat v Man Utd latest.
  • That's 3 consecutive 1-0 results, 2 defeats.
  • 1-0-0-0-1-0-0 goals scored away recently may blunt any defensive work.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • Only away win was a 0-1.

Conclusions

  • If Burnley's attack remains blunt away (failed to score in 5/6 away) then this gives West Ham a chance. I do gain more confidence in West Ham if Antonio plays. West Ham have failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Strong 2nd half stats for goals suggests backing 0-0 pre match and hoping Burnley at least last until halftime.

17:30 - Fulham v Chelsea - 1.44 Chelsea

Fulham - 18th

  • Better judged on their recent run of 5 draws, including eyecatching 1-1 v Liverpool, and 1-1 v Tottenham latest.
  • 1-1, 0-0, 0-0 at home latest.
  • 2+ goals conceded at home in 4/6 matches v the top 13.

Chelsea - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came in a London Derby v West Ham.
  • Another London derby after that saw a 3-1 loss v Arsenal.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • 3 wins and a draw away v 15th and lower, scoring 2 goals minimum.
  • 10/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This draw sequence from Fulham will end at some point. I do think that Chelsea's forward line is consistently scoring 2+ goals home and away v 15th and lower and that might put this draw sequence in jeopardy. Fulham are conceding 2+ goals v the top 13 too, albeit they kept it to 1-1 v Liverpool and Tottenham.

20:00 - Leicester v Southampton - 1.85 Leicester

Leicester - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came v Everton.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Draw at home recently.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/8 Leicester home matches.
  • Not beaten the top 10 at home, failing to score in 3/4 matches.

Southampton - 7th

  • Only 2 losses in 15 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win recently, conceding 1-1-0-0-0 goals.
  • Draw, Win< Draw, Draw, away.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Not played the top 6 away.

Conclusions

  • You cannot discount Southampton here but note their solid away form has NOT come v the top 6 away who they have not played. So they will be tested for the first time away v the top 6 today.
  • Leicester have not beaten the top 10 at home and that will be a worry.
  • So this is a match with questions left to answer. How will Southampton perform v the top 6 away? Will Leicester improve their woeful home form v the top 10?

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:30 - Middlesbrough v Birmingham - 1.89 Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough - 7th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 6 wins in 7 at home.
  • No draw in 11 and in 7 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only one at fulltime.
  • Only loss at home came v 1st.
  • All wins at home v 9th and lower.

Birmingham City - 19th

  • 5 losses and a 0-0 last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, 4 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss away v the top 14 came v 1st.
  • 1-4 loss v Boro earlier this season.
  • 4 goals conceded away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • An argument to back 0-0 pre match given the high % of 0-0's at halftime for both sides. I tend to cash out as late as I can. Birmingham have kept 4 0-0's at fulltime away.
  • Recent form is with Boro for sure but we must note that Birmingham lost only once away v the top 14.

15:00

Watford v Huddersfield - 1.72 Watford

Watford - 6th

  • Only 5 defeats, 4 of which came away and 2 within the last 2 away matches. Failed to score in 4 of those defeats.
  • Only 1 home defeat was a 0-1.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 14.
  • 6 and 5 goals scored first 15 mins of first half and 2nd half respectively.

Huddersfield - 13th

  • No win in 6 away.
  • Beat 2nd away but in the midst of 4 other defeats away v the top 9.
  • Did beat Watford earlier this season 2-0.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads are interesting but Watford at home look a different proposition, unbeaten v the top 14.
  • Watford are strong scorers early in both halves. Note particularly if 0-0 at halftime. I would have to favour Watford today.

Blackburn v Stoke - 2.12 Blackburn

Blackburn - 11th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.
  • Lost 1-0 last head to head.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 6 home matches.
  • 7 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Stoke - 8th

  • Only 1 win in 7 was a 1-0. Their last 3 wins were 1-0.
  • 0-0-0-2-0-0-0-0-1-1 goals conceded recently.
  • 0-1-1-1-0-0-1-0-1-0 goals scored recently.
  • 6 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away results in 5 0-0's at fulltime away.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 looks to be in-play here in any Stoke match so back it pre match and hope this tough to score against, and find it tough to score themselves Stoke turns up. I tend to cash out at halftime.
  • Lay Stoke if they score first but cover the 0-1. Where has that 2nd goal come from recently?

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Hamilton v Dundee Utd - 2.25 Dundee Utd

Hamilton - 11th

  • only 2 home wins came v 7th and 9th and saw clean sheets.
  • 1-1 and 2-1 defeat v Dundee United already this season.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 6/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Dundee United - 6th

  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 0-0-0-1-1 goals conceded away v 8th and lower.
  • 3 draws and a loss v Celtic recently.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

  • As with their last match v St Johnstone, I would fancy Dundee United again today - unbeaten v 8th and lower, and unbeaten in 2 matches v Hamilton already this season.

15:00 - Hibernian v Kilmarnock - 1.85 Hibernian

Hibernian - 4th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss at home recently.
  • 6 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of matches.
  • 2-1 and 0-1 wins last 2 head to heads in Hibs favour.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 6th and lower.

Kilmarnock - 7th

  • Win, Draw, Win last 3 matches.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 away matches.
  • No draw in 9 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Opponents scored first in 9/11 away.

Conclusions

  • Hibs have the best of it in head to heads. Killie have to overcome the hurdle of 7 defeats and a 1-1 draw v the top 4.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

15:00 - Ross County v Aberdeen - 1.75 Aberdeen

Ross County - 12th

  • Only 4 wins, 3 1-0 and a single 2-0.
  • Only 1 home win came first match of the season.
  • No win in 10 at home.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • 15 of 22 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 0-3 and 2-0 losses v Aberdeen.

Aberdeen - 3rd

  • Only 4 losses, 3 of them came v Rangers!
  • No defeat in 4 away.
  • Only Rangers have beaten Aberdeen away.

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen wins are emphatic in head to heads and I cannot see any surprises here today. If Ross score first, you'll have to cover the 1-0 given their habits. I cannot see another 2-0 Ross win on this occasion.

15:00 - St Johnstone v St Mirren - 2.30 St Johnstone

  • 10th v 8th.
  • 1-0 win and 3-2 loss for St Johnstone in head to heads.
  • Only 1 home loss for St Johnstone at home v 6th and lower.
  • 0-0-0-1-0-1 goals conceded v 6th and lower.
  • 4 away wins for St Mirren saw 3 at 0-1 and one at 0-2. Their only loss away v 7th and lower came v St Johnstone, 0-1.
  • Angles? Arguments for either side on their form v 6th/7th and lower so I'll leave this to in-play stats. But...if St J. continue to make it hard for teams to score 2 goals at home, then that is a ready angle.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Mainz - 1.20 Dortmund

Dortmund - 4th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats ended with a win last match.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime, but 3-2-4 goals 2nd half in total.
  • Scored last 13 and last 7 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Beat 17th at home, the only match v the bottom 2.
  • 12/16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mainz - 18th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3/3 defeats away v the top 5.
  • 12/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 win for Mainz surely will allow Dortmund to maintain their mini-revival like a lot of teams post European club competition.
  • Remember, Dortmund tend to be reliable 2nd half goal scorers if not scoring first half.
  • Mainz have 3/3 defeats away v the top 5.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.67 Hoffenheim

  • I am not going to dwell too much on this match. Any team that Schalke can beat is dodgier than an Arthur Daley motor. Welcome to the Hoff.
  • Compound this with the relative unknow that comes with newly promoted Arminia Bielefeld and I am happy to attack this match via the in-play stats only and not via pre match research.

14:30 - Koln v Hertha Berlin - 2.20 Hertha Berlin

Koln - 16th

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches. Failed to score in those 4 matches.
  • No home win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 7/8 home matches.

Hertha Berlin - 12th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Draw, draw, loss, loss away recently.
  • Not played the bottom 3 away but v the bottom 2 at home unbeaten and did not concede.
  • 67% of goals scored and 77% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Koln have not won at home yet, but the market gives them a chance. Hertha have been good v the bottom 2, albeit at home. They are yet to play the bottom 3 away.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals if none first half.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Augsburg - 2.25 Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen - 13th

  • Only 3 wins, 2 of those were 1-0.
  • 2 draws and 3 defeats last 5 home matches.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal at home.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • 4/4 defeats at home v the top 13.
  • 3 wins came v 15th and lower.

Augsburg - 11th

  • 2 consecutive away wins came v newly promoted sides.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • Not played 8th-13th away.
  • 5 goals scored away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Messy match. Augsburg's wins have come v newly promoted sides recently. But a positive for them? Werder don't tend to score 2 goals at home and have 4/4 defeats at home v the top 13.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Leipzig - 2.05 Leipzig

Wolfsburg - 6th

  • Having an excellent season, their only 2 losses have come away v the big 2 Dortmund and Bayern Munich. Well they meet one of the Big 3 today albeit with home advantage.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Only played one of the top 8 at home, a 0-0 v 3rd.
  • 5th goals scored at home 16th-30th minute and 4 goals scored at home v 76th-90th minute.
  • 4/5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leipzig - 2nd

  • Only 2 losses. Lost last match v Dortmund, seeing Dortmund score all of their 3 goals 2nd half.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 3-3, 1-1, 1-0 defeat v the top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • It takes a good un to beat Wolfsburg and that comes away from home. We do have a big gap of form though. The Wolf have only played one of the top 8 at home so their solid home form needs that context.
  • Leipzig themselves away struggle to beat the top 7.
  • I cannot discount the Wolf but have a sneaking feeling that in losing to Dortmund and Bayern Munich, they may lose again to what is the 3rd best side in the league in recent times.

17:30 - Stuttgart v M'gladbach - 2.30 Mgladbach

Stuttgart - 10th

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 2 defeats in 3 matches though were only 1-0.
  • Not won a home match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten the top 7 at home scoring and conceded in all bar 1 of those matches.

Mgladbach - 7th

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Solid 3-2 home win v Bayern last match.
  • Failed to score 2+ goals only last away match - 0-1 win v Bielefeld. Meeting another newly promoted side today.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches and last 6 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 defeats plays only 3 defeats but Stuttgart are not winning at home. Far too many draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet plays only 2 clean sheets so don't expect a 0-0.
  • Mgladbach broke their 2 goal habit with a 0-1 win away last match v a newly promoted side. Will that pattern continue today? Mgladbach must be buzzing after scoring 3 v Bayern Munich last match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market says the stats but...remember the 0-1 away win last time for Mgladbach.

ITALIAN SERIA A

  • I need a strong espresso for these 3 tough to call Italian Seria A matches. In-play stats or not at all!

14:00 - Bologna v Verona - 2.45 Bologna

  • 5 draws and a loss for Bologna latest. Win, Draw, Win for Verona latest.
  • Bologna are on a 2 match home 2-2 sequence.
  • Verona unbeaten in 7 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away for Verona, none at fulltime.
  • 13th v 9th. Bologna yet to beat the top 10.
  • Only 1 away loss for Verona came v 19th.
  • Angles? Not gone too indepth here given 2.45 the favourite but for me, Verona are favoured on their away form and Bologna's inability to beat a top 10 side...so far!

17:00 - Torino v Spezia - 2.00 Torino

  • Another match I don't want to dwell too much on given Spezia are newly promoted and recently beat Napoli away, down to 10 men!!
  • 3 of Spezia's 4 wins came away.
  • Torino are 3rd bottom and Spezia have conceded 2 goals in 4 matches v the bottom 4 home and away.
  • Torino have only 2 wins coming away v bottom 4 sides. Spezia are 14th On 5 occasions at home for Torino, they scored and conceded 2 goals.
  • Angles? As readable as a Jeffrey Archer novel this one. The market is with Torino.
  • Certainly 0-0 fulltime should not be on the radar with Torino scoring and conceding 2+ goals on 5 occasions at home.

19:45 - Sampdoria v Udinese - 2.7 home and away

  • In-play stats only for this match. 2.7 for both teams.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Marseille v Nimes - 1.36 Marseille

Marseille - 6th

  • Only 3 defeats and very disappointing in the 0-0 away at Dijon recently.
  • Only 1 home loss came 1st match of the season.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 home matches.
  • Not played bottom 3 at home.
  • 0-2 win v Nimes earlier this season.
  • 7/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Nimes - 20th

  • 11 losses, a win and a draw last 13 matches.
  • 3 losses and a 2-2 last 4 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • 5/5 losses at home v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • Marseille at home should put that poor 0-0 v Dijon to bed. They score and concede at home and should not lose if doing so today.
  • Nimes have a 100% defeat record v the top 7 AT HOME, so....without home advantage....

20:00 - Angers v PSG - 1.35 PSG

Angers - 7th

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches.
  • No draw in 5 at home.
  • 6-1 loss to PSG earlier this season.

PSG - 2nd

  • Only 4 defeats, 3 of those defeats were 1-0.
  • Loss, Win, draw, draw away.

Conclusions

  • PSG are leaking points away from home and will be keen to end a draw sequence away. Their emphatic win v Angers earlier this season augurs well today.
  • PSG tend to lose 1-0 if they lose so if Angers score first, lay them but cover the 1-0 in case...

TURKISH SUPER LIG

13:00 - Gazisehir Gaziantep v Kayserispor - 1.73 Gazisehir

Gaziantep - 4th

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 home matches.
  • Only 2 losses came away first and last matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 11/17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Kayserispor - 18th

  • All 4 wins were 1-0. 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side.

Conclusions

  • If Kayserispor score first, lay them but cover the 0-1 given their 2 consecutive 0-1 wins.
  • Gaziantep have scored in all matches and scored 2 goals + in their last 5 at home.

13:00 - Istanbul Basaksehir v Sivasspor - 1.91 Basaksehir

Basaksehir - 12th

  • 7 matches without a win ended with 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 13 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats this season have come v the top 8.

Sivasspor - 11th

  • 3-0-2-2-2 goals scored recently.
  • 2 2-2's and a 2-1 last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss came v 1st.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match away outside 1st in the league.

Conclusions

  • Favour Basaksehir given their defeats tend to come v the top 8? But then Sivasspor have only 1 away loss v 1st in the league.
  • Both teams to score?
  • As equal an argument for both sides so in-play stats for me.

16:00 - Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor - 2.25 Trabzonspor

Antalyaspor - 9th

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side, play 7th today.
  • All 3 home defeats came v the top 6.
  • 5 goals scored at home 31st-45th minute.

Trabzonspor - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, only 2 at fulltime.
  • Not played 9th-17th away.
  • All 6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in good ultra recent form, Trab's is more consistent.
  • Notably, Antalyaspor have not beaten the top 6, will that extend to 7th in the league?
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

15:15 - Oostende v Kortrijk - 2.20 Oostende

Oostende - 7th

  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss last 6 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw at home recently.
  • Scored in their last 10 and conceded last 5 at home.
  • 3-1 loss v Kortrijk earlier this season.
  • Only 1 loss at home outside of the top 2.

Kortrijk - 9th

  • 3 wins in 4 came at home.
  • Only 1 win in 7 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 away.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (67%).
  • Not played 4th-8th away.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Oostende came good for us traders last match with an equalizer 2nd half v Eupen. Can we rely on their scoring at least a goal, as they have done in their last 10 matches at home?
  • Oostende remain reasonable at home, only 1 loss outside the top 2 at home.
  • Kortrijk have a lot of 0-0's at halftime. Lay that 0-0 2nd half.

17:30 - Mouscron v Genk - 1.73 Genk

Mouscron - 18th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2 consecutive defeats did come away from home.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw at home recently.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • No win v the top 7. 3/3 draws at home v the top 5.
  • 4-1 loss v Genk last time these 2 met.

Genk - 2nd

  • Only 4 defeats, 2 came within the last 3 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets ; failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded away v 11th and lower, with 5 wins and a draw.

Conclusions

  • Genk's head to head win was emphatic and fits in with their scoring and conceding, but winning, pattern v 11th and lower away from home. I will go with that pattern despite Genk conceding in their last 8 away matches and Mouscron scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.

17:30 - Waasland-Beveren v Zulte-Waregem - 2.37 Zulte-Waregem

Beveren - 16th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last home match.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 4-1 loss v Zulte last head to head.
  • All 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Zulte-Waregem - 11th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 4/4 wins away v 12th and lower.
  • 5/5 wins v the bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, we favour Zulte here, winning away, wins v 12th and lower away, 5/5 wins v the bottom 3 and 4-1 win v Beveren earlier this season.
  • Beveren's sole 2 wins at home have come within the last 3 matches. They score exclusively 2nd half at home.
  • 2.37 the favourite suggests that the market cannot split these 2 sides but seasonal form is solidly with Zulte.

19:45 - Charleroi v Mechelen - 2.05 Charleroi

Charleroi - 3rd

  • 3 wins and 2 losses last 5 matches.
  • 0-0-0-1 goals scored at home latest.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home and only once at fulltime.
  • Strange home form. Unbeaten at home v the top 9. 3 losses and a win at home v 10th and lower.
  • 3-3 last head to head.
  • 9/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mechelen - 14th

  • 2 losses and 3 wins last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches away v the top 11.
  • Not beaten the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Mechelen are yet to beat the top 10 but the last head to head was a 3-3. Mechelen have scored and conceded in all away matches v the top 11. If Charleroi struggle to score as they have done at home recently, lay them if they score first.
  • I don't know what to make of Charleroi's home for. Unbeaten at home v top 9, but 3 losses and a win v 10th and lower!

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

15:30 - Emmen v Vitesse - 1.65 Vitesse

Emmen - bottom

  • No win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 at home.
  • Conceded last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v the top 5.

Vitesse - 2nd

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats came away.
  • 2 defeats in 3 away.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Vitesse are highly likely to score.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Emmen are yet to win. Sheffield Utd ended their run but that was in a 2.62 the favourite match. This match rightly has Vitesse as favourite. Emmen may have to wait for their first win. All defeats v the top 5.

17:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v PSV - 1.39 PSV

Sparta Rotterdam - 8th

  • 6 wins and 3 defeats last 9 matches.
  • 2 wins and now 2 defeats last 4 at home.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins bar 1 came v 13th and lower.
  • 1-0 loss away v PSV earlier this season. Failed to score in 4/5 matches v the top 4.
  • 13/16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PSV Eindhoven - 4th

  • Only 2 defeats, one came last match.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw  away recently.
  • Scored last 16 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 and last 5 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
  • 7/10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sparta have trouble even scoring v the top 4 and that may limit them today against a PSV side scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • PSV are more wobbly away from home and I feel a draw would be a worst case scenario for them.
  • PSV do score and conceded away so note that today.

19:00 - Utrecht v Heracles - 1.65 Utrecht

Utrecht - 10th

  • Only 4 defeats but only 3 wins = 9 draws this season, 8 of which were score draws.
  • 4 consecutive home draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches, including their last match.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 8 at home.
  • Only home loss came v 1st - scored and conceded in all other home matches.
  • 4-1 loss v Heracles last time these 2 met.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Heracles - 11th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Win away last 3 matches.
  • Losses away came v 1st, 2nd, 15th and 17th.Did beat 7th, and 8th and draw v 9th away.
  • 12/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I wouldn't be backing Utrecht at those odds given only 3 wins, only 1 clean sheet, conceding last 8 at home and against a Heracles side already beating them 4-1 and with a draw, Win, Win last 3 matches.
  • The market is extremely confident in Utrecht today. They do draw a lot, 9 this season.
  • Both sides concede 2nd half so note that.

19:00 - Zwolle v Sittard - 1.91 Zwolle

Zwolle - 12th

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • 4 draws and a win last 5 home matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • All defeats have come v the top 6.
  • Not played 11th-16th at home, 2 0-0's at home v the bottom 2.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

Fortuna Sittard - 13th

  • A recent impressive run of 4 wins and a draw ended with a 0-1 home loss v Sparta last match.
  • Win, Draw, Win away.
  • Both teams have scored in 12 matches this season.
  • Conceded last 16 and last 8 away.
  • All defeats have come v top 9 sides.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.
  • 12/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not 2 of the shining lights in Holland. Recent form good for both. Both sides tending to keep their losses to the top 6/9 so arguably will fancy their chances here.
  • This makes it hard to find fault with any one side so I will leave this to the in-play stats.

20:00 - AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag - 1.12 AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar - 5th

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 5/7 home matches.
  • 3/3 wins at home v 15th and lower.
  • 6/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

ADO Den Haag - 16th

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • Draw, Draw, Win away, 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 win recently.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side home or away.
  • v the top 6 , have conceded 2-4 goals.
  • 15/19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 1.12 suggests 3+ goals from AZ, and looking at ADO v the top 6, they tend to concede 2-4 goals so that fits in.
  • 1.12 suggests AZ lead at halftime and indeed they have led at halftime in 5/7 home matches.