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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 15, 2021

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English Premier League

12:30 - Burnley v Leeds - 2.45 Leeds

  • 1st goal: Burnley have conceded first in 6/10 home matches while Leeds have scored first in 4/5 away matches against bottom-six teams. Leeds have won 4/5 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 15th v 10th.
  • Nothing left to motivate these 2 sides. Job done for Burnley latest.

15:00 - Southampton v Fulham - 2.00 Southampton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Fulham away matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 5/8 such matches. Southampton have won 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 14th v 18th. Fulham are relegated. Southampton are safe and don't even need to call on Matt Le Tissier for the last 3 matches. Another dead rubber.

20:00 - Brighton v West Ham - 2.50 West Ham

  • Match outcome: Brighton have lost 7/11 home matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/17 West Ham away matches.
  • Brighton are safe from relegation with 3 matches remaining. It is all go for West Ham, 5th on 58 points. They are 6 points shy of 4th spot and surely while a Champions League spot is mathematically achievable, West Ham must go for it. West Ham's 5th spot is under threat from Liverpool, Tottenham , Arsenal and Everton.

Brighton

  • Win, Draw, Win at home latest keeping clean sheets has kept Brighton up, just as Fulham started to falter.
  • Not beaten the top 5. 2-2 draw v West Ham last head to head.

West Ham

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 5 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower.
  • 15 goals last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • The motivation is with West Ham. The form is with West Ham and that is how I will enter this match. Brighton will psychologically switch off I feel now they are safe from relegation.

English FA Cup

17:15 - Chelsea v Leicester - 1.91 Chelsea

  • FA Cup Final.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Arminia Bielefeld v Hoffenheim - 2.45 Hoffenheim

  • Match outcome: A Bielefeld have lost 9/15 home matches while Hoffenheim have won 9/15 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Hoffenheim away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Must win for Bielefeld. Hoffenheim are 8 points above the relegation zone.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches for Bielefeld. 4 clean sheets in 5 matches for Bielefeld.
  • Hoffenheim are unbeaten in 5 matches with 3 wins in 4.
  • Angles? Bielefeld are putting together an excellent run just when they need it. 2.45 the favourite suggests that this is tough to split.

14:30 - Augsburg v Werder Bremen - 2.62 Augsburg

  • 1st goal: Augsburg have conceded first in 11/19 home matches while W. Bremen have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. W. Bremen have scored first in 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 14th v 15th. A relegation six pointer.
  • 4 losses and a draw in 5 for Augsburg plays 7 losses and a draw in 8 for Werder Bremen.
  • No winder it's 2.62 the favourite.
  • This is the type of match to lay the late draw given the need for 3 points.

14:30 - Freiburg v Bayern Munich - 1.33 Bayern Munich

  • HT/FT: Bayern have had W/W double results in 13/20 away matches and they have won 10/14 away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 SC Freiburg home matches against top-six teams.
  • Bayern Munich are Champions. Freiburg have nothing to play for.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Koln - 2.30 Hertha Berlin

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Hertha Berlin home matches against bottom-six teams and in 6/9 FC Koln away matches against bottom-six teams. FC Koln have scored first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 13th v 17th. It's a 1 game every 3 day schedule for Hertha Berlin.
  • They have a 3 point gap to relegation. Koln are bottom 2 currently.
  • This is a relegation six pointer.

Hertha Berlin

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win, Draw at home.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • No defeat in 7 and in 5 at home.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • 0-0 and 3-0 win at home v the bottom 3.

Koln

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches came within their last 3 matches. 5 losses and a win away last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 16 and last 10 away.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Loss, Win away v 12th and lower, the loss was 1-0.
  • 20/29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are collecting points at just the right time making it hard to find a weakness with any of these 2.
  • Another match where we lay the late draw because 3 points is a must.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Union Berlin - 1.85 Leverkusen

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Leverkusen home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 6/10 Leverkusen such matches. Union Berlin have lost 9/10 away matches against top-six teams.
  • 6th v 8th.
  • Must wins for Leverkusen to keep European Club Competition place. Union Berlin are 5 points shy of Leverkusen so if they have European pretentions, then they'll have to beat a rival in Leverkusen
  • 3 consecutive home wins for Leverkusen and a return to form of sorts. An impressive win against an impressive Frankfurt latest.
  • 3 losses and a draw away recently for Union Berlin but it has been a hard run v Frankfurt, Bayern, Dortmund and Wolfsburg.
  • Arguably Leverkusen has not quite been in the form of those 4 but remember, they beat Frank latest.
  • Leverkusen have had an air of unreliability this season but does this 3 match home winning run change your mind and increase your confidence?

14:30 - M'gladbach v Stuttgart - 1.70 Mgladbach

  • Match outcome: B. M'gladbach have won 8/12 home matches against middle-third teams while VfB Stuttgart have lost 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. B. M'gladbach have won the first half in 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 7th v 10th.
  • A very outside chance of Mgladbach reaching the top 6 and European football but I cannot see it.
  • Stuttgart happily in mid table mediocrity. Nothing to harm and nothing to aim for.
  • A dead rubber for me.

14:30 - Schalke v Frankfurt - 1.22 Frankfurt

  • HT/FT: Schalke 04 have had L/L double results in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 7/9 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 E. Frankfurt away matches.
  • The basic rule is that if you cannot beat Schalke, you shouldn't be playing football. Hertha Berlin did concede first to Schalke but ended up equalising before halftime and winning 1-2. Frankfurt have had an excellent season and are on the cusp of a Champions League place with a win today and a win final match.
  • Leverkusen did it, Hertha Berlin did it, and I expect Frankfurt to get the win too at similar odds. As with Hertha, confidently lay any Schalke lead.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Genoa v Atalanta - 1.28 Atalanta

  • 2 matches remain.
  • 14th v 2nd. Only Juventus can knock Atalanta out of the Champions League spots.
  • Genoa will be playing without fear. Tey are clear of the relegation zone.
  • 8 wins and 2 1-1 draws recently for Atalanta. 2 1-1 draws and a win away recently.
  • Atalanta have been winning relatively easily at these odds recently and more is expected today. Genoa did impress v Bologna latest and withstood a solid Bologna run, solid enough that I layed Genoa 0-2 up. So they may offer some resistance.
  • Genoa have scored in their last 16 at home but have only 1 win home and away v the top 10, suggesting they may score without winning.
  • Atalanta are unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. I do expect them to win while they need points.

14:00 - Spezia v Torino - 2.20 Torino

  • 2 matches remain.
  • 17th v 16th. These 2 are 4 points above the relegation zone. The winner takes it all, as Betfair trader Abba were wont to say. A win guarantees survival and a last match free from concern.
  • A point may not serve yet unless Benevento lose.
  • Spezia are on a run of 6 without a win, albeit 3 were score draws. Torino's only 2 defeats in 8 came v Napoli and Milan.
  • Both teams have scored in 9 of Spezia's last 10 matches so that could be expected today.
  • A fascinating match which I cannot call given its importance particularly for the winner. Both teams to score?

17:00 - Juventus v Inter Milan - 2.15 Juventus

  • 2 matches remain.
  • 5th v 1st. Inter are Champions. Juventus must win in order to be in with a chance of a top 4 berth.
  • Inter Milan are not letting up, and have scored 10 goals in their last 3 matches.
  • They have only 2 defeats.
  • Juve's last 2 defeats came v Atalanta and AC Milan, top 4 sides and that may be problematic for Juventus.
  • Juve have no draw in 13 at home and have conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Inter have scored in their last 17 matches.
  • Inter are more vulnerable away to the top 7, as seen with 4 score draws.
  • Juve though have yet to beat a top 2 side.
  • Angles? very difficult to read this as Inter don't need the win. Juventus do need the win or Champions League football may not happen for them this season.
  • I would expect Inter to continue scoring.

19:45 - Roma v Lazio - 2.30 Lazio

  • 2 matches remain and Roman Derby.
  • This match is all about pride as Roma cannot breach the top 6. Lazio have a very slim chance of a top 4 berth but will need 2 wins and other results to go their way.
  • No research for high profile derbies.

PORTUGUESE PRIMIERA LIGA

15:30 - Farense v Tondela - 1.63 Farense

  • 17th v 12th.
  • Must wins from hereon in for Farense, 2nd bottom and 3 points off 15th.
  • Tondela are 6 points above relegation with 6 points remaining. They look safe.

15:30 - Boavista v Portimonense - 2.62 Boavista

  • 16th v 13th.
  • Both sides are in relegation problems, Boavista more so than Portimonense who have 4 points cushion.
  • Both sides have no win in 5 matches.
  • Boavista are unbeaten v the bottom 5. 1-2 loss last head to head.
  • Portimonense both teams scored v the bottom 2 away.
  • Angles? Not for me. Inplay stats or not at all.

18:00 - Benfica v Sporting Lisbon - 1.98 Benfica

  • Sporting are Champions. 2nd place is still available for Benfica.
  • This is a high profile derby and Sporting, I would argue, still have an unbeaten run to protect. It will be more vulnerable now that they are Champions.

20:30 - Rio Ave v Porto - 1.49 Porto

  • 15th v 2nd. Rio Ave have relegation worries. Porto will be keen to assert 2nd place and Champions League football.

Rio Ave

  • No win in 10 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • 2 losses v the top 3 at home.

Porto

  • 2 consecutive away score draws.
  • No defeat in 26 and in 13 away.
  • Scored last 11 and last 8 away.
  • v 10th and lower away, all wins.

Conclusions

  • Still plenty for both sides to play for. Rio Ave though have failed to score v the top 5 at home which is a concern. Porto are unbeaten in 26 matches.