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It's relegation six pointer day for a lot of clubs and there is always a niggle as regards the research. Oftentimes these relegation threatened teams can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Southampton v Chelsea - 1.92 Chelsea

  • 4 consecutive Chelsea wins in head to heads.

Southampton (18th)

  • Saints have a game in hand over Crystal Palace so a win here is crucial as it will leave them on the same points as Palace but with a better goal difference.
  • Only 1 win in 19 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats have come away.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss (v Liverpool), Draw last 4 at home. Dropping crucial points despite not losing.
  • No win in 8 at home now.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home.
  • Not beaten top 8 home or away.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 8.
  • 1-1 v 4th and 6th at home.

Chelsea (5th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 came at home.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats, 2 were v the Manchester clubs.
  • Yet to concede in 5 wins v bottom 3 sides.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Relegation six pointer for Southampton so we may see a sudden improvement.
  • On season long form though, Chelsea have been scoring easily and keeping clean sheets v the bottom 3 this season.
  • Southampton did draw at home v 4th and 6th and on that basis, a draw seems best case for them on form. Lay the Saints if they score first?

15:00 - Burnley v Leicester - 2.76 Burnley

  • 1-0 Burnley and 1-0 Leicester in the last 2 head to heads.

Burnley (7th)

  • 4 consecutive wins, 3 of those were 2-1.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (53%).
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.
  • Only 8 goals in total scored and conceded a home first half this season.

Leicester (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 2 away losses followed by 2 away wins latest.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches all season.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • Not beaten the top 9 away this season.

Conclusions

  • What's my motivation? These 2 are safe and I suppose Burnley can challenge the top 5 still.
  • I would be wary regarding leicester's poor performances away v the top 9. Burnley for me are not an established top 9 team.
  • We may see both teams score today. A 2-1/1-2 is a possible trading angle to cash out if 1-1.

15:00 - Swansea v Everton - 2.54 Swansea

  • 3-1 Everton in the last head to head.
  • Another  match I will not fully research given the match odds suggest it is tough to call.
  • Swansea are in the relegation fight. Everton on 41 points should be safe.
  • 2 new managers for each side.
  • Swansea's form under their new manager is excellent and let's hone in on the home form.
  • A loss v Tottenham and 4 consecutive wins including Liverpool and Arsenal.
  • Big Sam has Everton purring at home but away from home they are still struggling. 5 consecutive away defeats ended with a win v Stoke, and even that needed a helping hand from a Stoke red card.
  • I remain unconvinced with Everton's away form, so would favour the Swans today not to lose. That would be my tentative angle today.

15:00 - C Palace v Brighton - 1.98 Palace

  • 31 points plays 35 points. Palace are still in relegation trouble albeit 4th bottom currently.
  • 0-0 in the last Premier League mach.

Palace (17th)

  • Relegation six pointer for Palace today and for the rest of the season.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th-14th inclusive albeit 4 score draws.

Brighton (13th)

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • 10 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Only 2 losses home and away v 12th and lower. v bottom 5 away, a loss, 2 1-1 draws and another loss.
  • 12 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 7 point buffer for Brighton is still not yet enough to avoid relegation. This therefore becomes the proverbial relegation six pointer.
  • Strictly on form, you'd have to favour Palace not to lose today. They have a strong unbeaten record v mid table teams and play a Brighton side without a win v bottom 5 away from home.
  • We may see both teams score. I would prefer Brighton to score first as I would lay them. Palace, remember, have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • I remind you this is a relegation six pointer. The need not to lose may override season long form.

15:00 - Huddersfield v Watford - 2.72 Huddersfield

  • 1-4 Huddersfield in the earlier Premier League encounter.
  • Just a cursory look at the main stats given the odds.
  • Relegation six pointer for Huddersfield. Relative safety for Watford.
  • Huddersfield failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches and 3 of their last 4 at home.
  • Watford have no win in 9. Hope for Huddersfield?
  • Huddersfield have beaten 10th, 11th and 13th at home and play 12th today. 2-1-2-0-2 scored by Watford v bottom 6.
  • No angles for me today. Remember Huddersfield need the points. Watford tend to score v bottom 6 but are relatively safe.

17:30 - Liverpool v Bournemouth - 1.27 Liverpool

  • 0-4 Liverpool in the last head to head.

Liverpool (3rd)

  • All 4 defeats this season came away from home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 10 came v Everton last match.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home ( \31%).
  • Have conceded only 1 goal in 8 home matches v 10th and lower.
  • 25 of 38 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bournemouth (11th)

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches came v Tottenham and Huddersfield.
  • Scored and conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
  • 4 draws in the last 6 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches.
  • All defeats away v top 4 but note 2 were 1-0.

Conclusions

  • This should, on form, be a win to nil for Liverpool. We see 7 clean sheets at home v 10th and lower. We see Bournemouth failing to score v top 4 in defeat.
  • Bournemouth, yes, have scored in their last 14 matches so the ideal for us is to lay Bournemouth if Bournemouth scores first.

19:45 - Tottenham v Man City - 2.56 Tottenham

  • 4-1 Manchester City in the last head to head.
  • This is a humdinger but not from a trading perspective. Unless you have a personal opinion, this match is best left to the in-play stats or whatever conclusions you reach by watching the match.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Sevilla v Villarreal - 1.89 Sevilla

  • 0-0 and 2-3 Sevilla in the last head to head.

Sevilla (7th)

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 at home albeit v the likes of Atl Madrid and Barcelona.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (40%).
  • A draw and 7 defeats v the top 5 home and away but....a 2-3 win away v Villareal this season.

Villareal (6th)

  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses in the last 3 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Win,Loss last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 in 12 matches at halftime.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (38%).
  • v top 9 away, 4 wins (3 0-1's) a 1-1 and a 2-1 loss.
  • Bizarre away form. Only 1 win away outside of the top 10.

Conclusions

  • A muddling match. What is with Villareal away? V the top 9, solid, albeit 3 0-1 wins. Outside the top 10, pants.
  • Sevilla are unbeaten v teams below them in the league, tend to lose to top 5 and play 6th today.
  • Nothing concrete in the form for me.
  • Do note the fairly high % 0-0's at halftime and take that 0-0 on 2nd half.

15:15 - Barcelona v Valencia - 1.31 Barcelona

  • 11 points clear at the top but plenty of points remaining.
  • 1-0 and 0-2 Barcelona last 2 head to heads.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • The best DRT team league-wise this season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (13%).
  • Led at halftime in 11/15 at home.

Valencia (3rd)

  • 8 wins in the last 9 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 5 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (33%).
  • Lost away to 2nd 1-0, and 2-2 away v 4th.
  • 14 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tight match with 2 recently inform sides. 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 look like the scorelines I'd be working with.
  • Shall we keep the faith in Barcelona who have been such a good DRT side when the match is 0-0, or they are losing. They are unbeaten.
  • I would ordinarily lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but this top 3 clash might be tight.

17:30 - Las Palmas v Sociedad - 2 Sociedad

  • 0-1 Sociedad and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Las Palmas (19th)

  • Relegation six pointer for Las Palmas. 7 matches remain and 10 points the deficit to 4th bottom.
  • Only 5 wins all season.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • Have beaten 3rd, 5th, 12th and 20th at home, 3 of those wins were 1-0 only.

Real Sociedad (13th)

  • 5 goals scored last match. That is the threat that Real have.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • 5-4-2-0 goals scored home and away v bottom 3 this season.

Conclusions

  • We know Sociedad have goals in them, usually 2+ against the right opposition. Well they play bottom 3 today and that is the right opposition!
  • With no win in 11 away, Sociedad are poor travellers.Las Palmas wins tend to be 1-0. I would lay Las Palmas if Las Palmas scored first given the perception of goals for Sociedad.

17:30 - Leganes v Celta Vigo - 2.3 Celta Vigo

  • 0-2 Celta and 1-0 Celta in the last 2 head to heads.

Leganes (14th)

  • Only 2 wins in 11 did come at home recently.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home is 60% of matches.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 at home v teams 12th and lower, keeping 5/6 clean sheets.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celta (9th)

  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Have scored in all away matches v 12th and lower but 3 2-1 defeats with 3 wins v the bottom 4.

Conclusions

  • The 0-0 halftime scores are incongruous so we'll leave those alone.
  • Celta do tend to score v 12t and lower and indeed Leganes have a superb record v 12th and lower.
  • 2-1 anyone? A recurring correct score when Celta lose? If you back 2-1/1-2 pre match it might provide us with an angle to trade?

19:45 - Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo - 1.66 Atl Bilbao

  • 2-1 Atletic and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Atl Bilbao (12th)

  • Only 3 wins in their last 10 matches.
  • 4 recent losses came away. Not lost at home since 28th October 2017.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (47% of matches).
  • 2-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 at home v 15th and lower.

Depor (18th)

  • Only 2 wins since 4th November 2017.
  • 9 defeats in their last 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 away.
  • Failed to score 2 goals in an away match v the top 16.
  • Opponents scored first in 12/15 away.

Conclusions

  • If Depor cannot score that 2nd goal away v top 16, lay them if they score first.
  • Bilbao have had an uncomfortable number of home draws but have had 3 2 goal wins at home v 15th and lower so that should be in your thoughts.
  • Bilbao have not lost at home since 28th October 2017. Use that stat in-play today.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v FC Koln - 2.06 Hertha

  • 0-2 Hertha in the last head to head.

Hertha (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches came away from home.
  • Failed to score in 5 of the last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • 2-1, 1-2, 0-2 results v the bottom 2 (wins) this season.
  • Failed to score v 14th, 15th and 16th as well.

FC Koln (18th)

  • 3 away defeats in 4.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A Hertha side in really poor form do not make for appealing favourites. But v the bottom 2 they are 100% with their wins.
  • Koln are doomed it seems. 5 matches remain and they remain bottom.
  • I would take on any late 0-0 here given Hertha cannot continue collecting 0-0's at home.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Hamburg - 1.52 Hoff

  • Hamburg have actually won the last 2 head to heads, albeit at their place.

Hoffenheim (7th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home, scoring 4-3-6 in those home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 overall and last 14 at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (29%).
  • 3-4-6 goals scored at home v the bottom 4 sides in wins.
  • 22 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hamburg (17th)

  • Relegation six pointer.
  • Won their last match, at home v Schalke 3-2. Now how much confidence will that give them today?
  • No win in 13 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Only away win v bottom of the league.
  • Failed to score a 2nd goal away v top 14 teams.

Conclusions

  • It looks like Hoff's day today. lay Hamburg if Hamburg score first, IF they continue to fail to score that 2nd goal away v top 14.
  • That win v Schalke though is the niggler. Is this a sign of a Hamburg side digging in for survival from relegation?
  • Strictly on form, the Hoff could fill their boots - 3+ goals v bottom 4 sides at home.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding for Hoffenheim so fear not a 0-0 at halftime.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.82 Leverkusen

  • 3-0 and 0-1 Leverkusen in the last 2 head to heads.

Conclusions

  • You'll forgive me if I leave this to the in-play stats. Leverkusen have been totally unreadable of late. Failing to score when you think they will, scoring 4 goals when you think they'll blunder again.

14:30 - Stuttgart v Hannover - 1.96 Stuttgart

  • 1-0 Hannover and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Stuttgart (9th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches came v Dortmund last match.
  • 2 wins and 2 draws at home last 4.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 5th and lower keeping 8/10 clean sheets.
  • 5 of those wins though were only 1-0.

Hannover (13th)

  • 5 losses in the last 6 matches.
  • Did win their last match, at home v Werder.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • Conceded in their last 14 and last 13 away.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away from home.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form, Stuttgart should not lose.
  • These 2 have a strong under 2.5 goals trend of late. Back 0-0 pre match and hope that continues at least until cash out at halftime?
  • Hannover tend to concede so lay them if they score first. Lay any 0-0 start 2nd half.
  • This could be a clean sheet win for Stuttgart though. 1-0, 2-0 would not surprise.

17:30 - Bayern Munich v Mgladbach - 1.38 Bayern

  • 0-1 Bayern and 2-1 Mgladbach in the last 2 head to heads.

Bayern Munich (1st)

  • 5 matches remain, Bayern are 20 points clear. Bayern are Champions.

Conclusions

  • And that's it from me. Bayern last season started losing after they have won the title. I would lay Bayern if Bayern scored first here just in case they take their foot off the gas.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Cagliari v Udinese - 2.52 Cagliari

  • 2-1 Udinese and 0-1 Cagliari in the last 2 head to heads.

Cagliari (16th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33% of matches).
  • Not beaten a top 15 side at home.

Udinese (13th)

  • 8 consecutive defeats conceding 2 goals in each of those.
  • Tend to come alive v 11th and lower away with 4 wins, a draw and a 3-2 loss.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Udinese could see an end to the recent misery. Good record away v 11th and lower and Cagliari have not beaten a top 15 side at home.
  • If you want to trust a team with 8 consecutive defeats, conceding 2 goals, in a relegation scrap, then good luck to you!

17:00 - Genoa v Crotone - 1.86 Genoa

  • 0-1 Genoa and 1-0 Genoa last 2 head to heads.

Genoa (11th)

  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (53%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower scoring 1-1-2-1-1.

Crotone (18th)

  • 5 losses in the last 8 matches.
  • 3 points could be a season changer today so tight is it at the bottom of the league.
  • Only 2 away wins required 3 goals to win.
  • Scored in 6/7 matches away v 10th and lower.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Genoa are a very tough team to score against. Ask the big boys. I would expect Genoa to go unbeaten but note Crotone tend to score v 10th and lower.
  • Lay Crotone if Crotone score first.
  • Do remember that this is relegation six pointer territory for Crotone. They may over-perform with survival foremost in their minds.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Lyon v Amiens - 1.25 Lyon

  • 1-2 Lyon in the last head to head.

Lyon (3rd)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Unbeaten in 7.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (13%).
  • Only 2 home losses v 5th and 19th.
  • 2-3-3-1-1-4-2-1-2 goals scored at home v 10th and lower.

Amiens (13th)

  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • Relative safety from relegation but not mathematically so.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away v top 11.
  • 3 of 4 wins away were 0-1 and you cannot really see Amiens keeping Lyon out today.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see Amiens nicking their traditional 0-1 away win today. This Lyon have goals in them, typically 2 so take on any Amiens 0-1 lead.
  • I would lay the 0-0 halftime score market based on Lyon but Amiens have had 6 0-0's at halftime away which is a relatively high %.
  • We are with Lyon today.

19:00 - Rennes v Metz - 1.5 Rennes

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.

Rennes (5th)

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • 3 1-1 draws in the last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (47%).
  • 2-0 and 1-0 at home v bottom 3.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Metz (20th)

  • 18 points available and about 14 points shy of safety, assuming the bottom 5 conveniently lose all of their remaining matches.
  • No win in 9 matches.
  • 4 score draws in the last 6 matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 9 away.
  • 100% defeats away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Metz are realistically, though not mathematically, down. They tend to concede 2-5 goals away v top 6 and should lose today v a Rennes with 2 wins out of 2 v the bottom 3.
  • I cannot discount the relegation six pointer factor  but it does seem for Metz, with 4 recent score draws, that a score draw is best case scenario.

19:00 - Nantes v Dijon - 1.75 Nantes

  • 3-1 Nantes and 1-0 Dijon in the last 2 head to heads.

Nantes (8th)

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 wins at home v top 13 came v 2nd and 10th. 4 of the 6 defeats were only 0-1.
  • Only scored that 2nd goal once at home v top 15.

Dijon (11th)

  • Won their last match, away, 0-1.
  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches came v inform Marseille and Monaco.
  • v top 16 away, Dijon are yet to win - they have had a 3-3 v 3rd, and 2-2's v 5th, 7th and 9th away.

Conclusions

  • Little to play for here, I would suggest. For me, it is Dijon with the likeliest case to come out of here unbeaten.
  • Nantes have scored 2 goals only once at home v top 15. Dijon love a score draw v top 9 and on that latter basis the value seems to be in laying Nantes if Nantes score first.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

18:45 - Vitesse v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.59 Vitesse

  • 4 consecutive Vitesse wins in head to heads.

Vitesse (7th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • Not played bottom 2 at home but lost 0-3 to 3rd bottom.

Sparta (17th)

  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 7 defeats out of 7 away v top 9.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal v top 10 away.
  • 22 of 29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I have seen stronger favourites that is for sure. Nothing about Vitesse's recent form, or their form v bottom 3, suggests piling the mortgage on them at 1.59.
  • Their odds seem down to the inadequacies of the Spartans. Failing to score a 2nd goal v top 10 away suggests laying Sparta if they score first.
  • 100% losses v top 9 suggests more of the same.
  • The value play? Take on a Vitesse lead. Unlikely we will see a profit but the profile of Vitesse is not one of a 1.59 shot.
  • Note Sparta concede heavily 2nd half.