The UEFA Nations League dominates again today. I do note lower league English Football at 15:00 and if I am online, I think these leagues, the Scottish Challenge Cup and a few other lower European Leagues all kicking off at the one time, may warrant a live Twitter chat. No promises though. I do prefer the Elite European leagues but if I am online and able, I will tweet.
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE
14:00 Slovakia v Czech Republic - 2.22 Slovakia
- A derby of sorts may negate any form reading of this match.
- The last head to head was 2015.
- Only 1 win in 4 for Slovakia.
- At home Slovakia have 8 wins, a draw and a loss -to Uganda? - in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- 1-0 loss to Ukraine in their opening NL match - an 80th minute penalty has a tinge of bad luck about it.
- No draw in 12 for the Czechs. 4 defeats in 6 - going off the boil or a distinct improvement in class of opponent?
- More bad luck v Ukraine for the Czechs. 1-1 draw scuppered by a 90th minute Ukraine winner. Get that Ukraine manager to buy your lottery tickets? He's a lucky beggar.
- We must account for Slovakia's form at home. We must also acknowledge the derby feel to this one which puts the match into the 'best team on the day' category.
17:00 - Armenia v Gibraltar - 1.08 Armenia
- As has been the case with recent short odds favourites, we tend to see a breakthrough before halftime.
- A way to profit? Look for a 0-0 until 30th minute or more, then back Armenia in the halftime market. 1.1 shots Brazil, as an example, scored in the 43rd minute yesterday!
- Correct score wins to nil are possible with 1.08 shots. I tend towards 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score.
17:00 - Georgia v Andorra - 1.15 Georgia
- 5 wins to nil in 6 matches for Georgia. A surprise loss away to Luxembourg, albeit this is a Luxembourg on something of a revival.
- 0-2 and 1-0 in the NL suggests a win to nil today. In these cases I tend to choose 3 correct score wins to nil.
- 3-0, 5-0, 7-0 for me. Yes Andorra have had 3 0-0's in 4 matches and a superb 1-1 v Kazakhstan.
- Georgia are 93rd and Kazaks are 118th.
- I am taken with the clean sheets for Georgia so will remain with my 3 correct scores which are backable with a bookmaker, not betfair (as betfair clumps all 4-0 + scorelines into one bet - any other home score).
17:00 - Latvia v Kazakhstan - 2.84 latvia
- The market shrugs its shoulders.
- 131st v 118th in the Fifa rankings. These 2 are equally as bad as each other.
- Next please!
17:00 - Norway v Slovenia - 1.71 Norway
- 5 wins in their last 6 matches for Norway in all competitions.
- 52nd v 61st in the FIFA rankings so there is no massive gap in form levels based on this rating.
- 2-0 win v Cyprus and 1-0 loss to Bulgaria (44th) for Norway in the NL.
- 4 defeats in 5 for Slovenia, the last 2 scorelines 2-1. v 24th, 80th, 44th and 86th ranked teams. Inconsistent.
- On ultra recent form we must side with Norway not to lose.
19:45 - Bulgaria v Cyprus - 1.57 Bulgaria
- 44th v 82nd in the FIFA rankings just to give you an idea as to how these teams' overall form is represented.
- 1-2 v Slovenia and 1-0 win v Norway for Bulgaria sees them in healthy form in the NL.
- Cyprus did beat Slovenia 2-1 and lost to Norway 2-0 so are inconsistent.
- The market looks right here.
19:45 - FYR Macedonia v Liechtenstein - 1.12 FYR
- 0-3 and 4-0 Macedonia 2017 head to head wins are recent enough for me to hang my hat on.
- They also fit in with a 1.12 quote and are obvious starting points for a correct score punter.
- FYR's earliest goals were 36th minute and 43rd minute so I would encourage a monitoring of the first half. Then back FYR after 30th minute if still 0-0 in the halftime market in order to create a bit of value.
- If 0-0 at halftime, back 3-0 and any other home score at the beginning of the second half.
19:45 - Netherlands v Germany - 2.16 Germany
- 2 teams I think are in transition. The German side is ageing. The Dutch side is blooding the youngsters.
- No recent head to heads.
- Only 3 losses in 15 matches for 17th ranked Netherlands playing 12th ranked Germany.
- Both teams have scored in the Dutch last 4 matches.
- 5 wins and a loss v England in their last 6 home matches.
- A 2-1 loss to France in their NL opener.
- Only 3 wins in 11 matches for Germany were all 2-1 wins v Saudi Arabia, Sweden and Peru.
- 0-0, 2-1 loss and 2-0 loss last 3 aways.
- 0-0 v France in the NL.
- One of those high profile matches with a wobbly Germany, mirroring the poor form of Germany's best league side Bayern Munich.
- I would back 2-1/1-2 here in the correct score market as a trading angle. The hope that if Germany win, it will be yet another 2-1. And a hope that the Dutch continue their both teams to score pattern of late.
19:45 - Rep of Ireland v Denmark - 2.6 Denmark
- 2.6 the favourite tells you this is a tough puzzle to solve.
- 30th v 10th in the rankings. Yes, a top 10 ranking for the Danes surprised me too!
- 0-0 and 1-5 Denmark as recently as November 2017 but as you see, the market expects a far tighter affair today.
- Ireland scored first in that 1-5 Dane win.
- Only 1 win in 7 for Ireland came v USA in a friendly. A 4-1 defeat to Wales in their NL opener is poor form.
- Eriksen is out for Denmark and that may be the sole explanation for the odds tonight. Eriksen scored a hatrick in the 1-5 win v Ireland previously.
- I would still side with the Danes tonight. Ireland will likely play their usual defensive game. When it worked, they tended to score a 2nd half goal and nick a 1-0. Back 0-0 pre-match to cash out halftime?