Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Competitive Internationals return today. I will Telegram if there are any trading angles. I do expect some today. I will do a video at DRT Facebook.

UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

14:00 - Malta v Andorra - 1.70 Malta

  • 180th v 145th.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Best case for Andorra would be a draw based on current form.
  • Andorra have failed to score in their last 5 matches.

14:00 - San Marino v Gibraltar - 1.70 Gibraltar

  • 210th v 195th.
  • 1-0 Gibraltar last head to head. Hardly a match to set pulses racing. Back 0-0 pre match?

17:00 - Azerbaijan v Montenegro - 2.20 Montenegro

  • 114th v 64th
  • 2-0 Montenegro win last head to head. No draw for Montenegro in the Nations League
  • Azerbaijan have failed to score last 2 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Montenegro.

17:00 - Cyprus v Luxembourg - 2.30 Luxembourg

  • 99th v 95th.
  • No win yet for Cyprus in the Nations League. They have failed to score last 5 matches.
  • 2-0 win for Luxembourg in the recent head to head.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Luxembourg, 2+ goals scored in the wins.

17:00 - Latvia v Faroe Islands - 2.30 Latvia

  • 142nd v 107th.
  • 5 draws and a loss in 6 matches for Latvia. Latvia don't have a 2nd goal in them in the Nations League.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 3 wins and a draw for the Faroes. Excellent albeit v Malta, Andorra, twice.
  • If Latvia cannot score that 2nd goal then that is a possible angle.

19:45 - Germany v Ukraine - 1.28 Germany

  • 14th v 23rd.
  • 4 score draws and a 1-2 win v Ukraine for Ze Germans.
  • Ukraine lost v Spain and Germany but did beat Spain 1-0 - that's 3 1-0 wins in the last 4 wins for Ukraine.
  • Germany, despite score drawing, to do the double?

19:45 - Portugal v France - 2.30 Portugal

  • 5th v 2nd.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 v France for Portugal.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 3 wins and a 0-0 for France recently. 0-2 loss v Finland in a friendly mid week.

19:45 - Sweden v Croatia - 2.62 Croatia

  • 19th v 9th.
  • 4 consecutive defeats for Sweden, failing to score in 3 of those matches.
  • 2-1 loss v Croatia.
  • 4 losses and that win v Sweden for Croatia. Both teams have scored last 6 matches for Croatia.

19:45 - Switzerland v Spain - 1.85 Spain

  • 16th v 6th.
  • No win in 6 for Switzerland in the Nations League. 3-3 v Germany last match.1-0 loss to Spain.
  • Spain have not conceded more than 1 goal in their last 4 Nations League matches. Draw, Win, Win, 1-0 loss latest.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

15:30 - Dordrecht v De Graafschap - 1.22 De Graafschap

Dordrecht - 20th

  • Only 1 win came at home.
  • 5 losses and a 2-2 last 6 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2-5-2-7-3-5 goals conceded recently.
  • Only win at home v 19th.
  • 4/5 goals scored at home came 1st half.

De Graafschap - 2nd

  • 6 wins, a draw and a loss last 8 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2 goals scored in 3/4 away matches.
  • Lost 7-3 away to 19th and play 20th today.
  • 7/9 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Dordrecht's concession rate.
  • Despite De Graaf's 7-3 loss away v 19th, I don't expect the same v 20th.

17:45 - NAC Breda v Telstar - 1.61 NAC Breda

NAC Breda - 5th

  • 4 losses and a win last 5 matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 home matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of the last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • No draw in 11.
  • All defeats have come v the top 6.

Telstar - 9th

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Loss, 1-1, 1-1 away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet. Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Not played top 7 away.
  • 7/8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals. Telstar like scoring and conceding, and doing both 2nd half.
  • NAC's recent poor form needs a context, all v top 6 and the market is not worried with the poor recent form and expects the win v 9th.

20:00 - Roda v MVV Maastricht - 1.60 Roda

Roda - 12th

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home, win, win, draw, draw, draw.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Playing 16th today and not conceded at home v 17th, 18th, 20th.

Maastricht - 16th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 5 and last 6 away.
  • 7/9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Roda are favoured today based on their clean sheets v 17th and lower.
  • Maastricht do tend to concede 2nd half so remember that if they keep a first half clean sheet.

ENGLISH LEAGUE 1

15:00 - Bristol Rovers v Fleetwood - 2.5 Fleetwood


15:00 - Crewe v Peterborough - 2.15 Peterborough

Crewe - 18th

  • 2 wins, a draw and 2 losses at home recently. Inconsistent.
  • 4 1-0 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • All defeats v the top 6. Playing 1st today.
  • Failed to score in 3/4 matches at home v the top 13.

Peterborough - 1st

  • 7 wins and a 2-2 last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches.
  • In 6/7 matches v 15th and lower, Boro scored 2+ goals.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, this looks obvious for Peterborough. They could threaten 2+ goals today. Crewe have lost v the top 6 this season and play the top of the league today.
  • Possibility to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Boro.

15:00 - Hull v Burton - 1.40 Hull

Hull

  • No draw.
  • 2/3 losses came away.
  • Lost last home match.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 home wins were 1-0.
  • Not played bottom 4 yet.

Burton Albion

  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away score draws.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only played one of the top 6, a 2-2 away v 1st.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Score draw best case for Burton Albion?
  • Hull will need more than a 1-0 today to comfortably win (3 1-0 home wins this season). The market is not put off, maybe because Burton do let teams score 2 goals away.

15:00 - Northampton v Accrington - 2.7 home and away

  • I won't research 2.7 the 2 teams.

15:00 - Shrewsbury v Swindon - 2.05 Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury - 22nd

  • Only 1 win came away 0-1.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal this season yet favourites here.
  • No home win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the teams 18th and lower home and away.

Swindon

  • 6 losses this season.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away losses.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime this season.

Conclusions

  • Not a match that appeals. These 2 are in poor form, only 1 win away for Shrewsbury. 5 losses in 6 matches for Swindon.

15:00 - Sunderland v MK Dons - 1.61 Sunderland

Sunderland - 6th

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • 1-2-1-1-1 scored at home.

MK Dons

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw away.

Conclusions

  • Sunderland have scored 2+ goals last 3 matches but have scored just a single goal in 4 home matches.
  • MK Dons though are poor away from home. Sunderland may get away with it.